Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
Climate change is one of the leading global challenges facing society and the planet. Predicting how the climate will change as human activities lead to emission of more greenhouse gases is a global scientific challenge for climate scientists.
We use models of the climate to make predictions. Because of limitations in computing power, and because of gaps in our understanding of the climate, these models are not perfect. Predictions from the models are, therefore, also not perfect. We are faced by the huge challenge of extracting robust information from climate models about how real-world climate will change in the future under specified scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions. Such projections are central to leading climate change assessments, such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
This project will provide a step-change in the ability of climate scientists to produce robust projections of climate change and to quantify the uncertainties in projections. A new framework will be developed that combines information from models, observations and our basic understanding of climate with modern statistical techniques to produce projections.
This new framework will be applied to three important climate regimes of Earth: tropical and subtropical temperature and precipitation change; middle latitude cyclones and anti-cyclones; and polar temperature and sea-ice changes.
We will bring together leading UK scientists (many are IPCC authors) from the Universities of Exeter, Reading, Oxford and East Anglia, and the Met Office, to address this grand challenge in climate science. We aim to precipitate a cultural shift that unifies diverse approaches from techniques to understand climate process and statistical methods and consolidate the UKs position as a world-leading centre for climate projection science.
We use models of the climate to make predictions. Because of limitations in computing power, and because of gaps in our understanding of the climate, these models are not perfect. Predictions from the models are, therefore, also not perfect. We are faced by the huge challenge of extracting robust information from climate models about how real-world climate will change in the future under specified scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions. Such projections are central to leading climate change assessments, such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
This project will provide a step-change in the ability of climate scientists to produce robust projections of climate change and to quantify the uncertainties in projections. A new framework will be developed that combines information from models, observations and our basic understanding of climate with modern statistical techniques to produce projections.
This new framework will be applied to three important climate regimes of Earth: tropical and subtropical temperature and precipitation change; middle latitude cyclones and anti-cyclones; and polar temperature and sea-ice changes.
We will bring together leading UK scientists (many are IPCC authors) from the Universities of Exeter, Reading, Oxford and East Anglia, and the Met Office, to address this grand challenge in climate science. We aim to precipitate a cultural shift that unifies diverse approaches from techniques to understand climate process and statistical methods and consolidate the UKs position as a world-leading centre for climate projection science.
Planned Impact
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - specifically Working Group I) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A major output from the project will be the ability to indicate robustness of projections on maps produced from model intercomparison projects such as CMIP6. Such communications techniques will be useful for producing figures in IPCC AR6 chapters that assess projections and in displaying regional information in e.g. the Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections. The report is widely read by other climate scientists and policy makers, including the line-by-line approval of the Summary for Policy Makers by governments.
National policymakers: the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Department for International Development (DFID). The UK Committee on Climate Change, a statutory body formed in 2008 to advise the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change. These bodies will benefit by receiving more reliable information about projections of climate change, globally. They will pass on those benefits to the general public in the form of policy decisions surrounding climate change.
The Met Office, the principal project partner, provide significant research support for these bodies in the form of expert advice and data from observations and models. They are also the lead on delivering the next UK Climate Projections (UKCP - http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/). This product is used by local government and business to assess their vulnerability to climate change. A major set of model experiments, provided to the project by the Met Office, will be extensively scrutinised during the project. In producing large perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs), it is often difficult to examine each member of the ensemble in detail. By making the PPEs available to the project, the Met Office will draw on the combined expertise of the UK physical climate change community. These experiments are a core component of the next set of UK Climate Projections (UKCP18).
The general public, business and the education sector will benefit from the above events and from our public outreach work including press releases on high-profile papers and social media activity (e.g. Twitter).
National policymakers: the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Department for International Development (DFID). The UK Committee on Climate Change, a statutory body formed in 2008 to advise the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change. These bodies will benefit by receiving more reliable information about projections of climate change, globally. They will pass on those benefits to the general public in the form of policy decisions surrounding climate change.
The Met Office, the principal project partner, provide significant research support for these bodies in the form of expert advice and data from observations and models. They are also the lead on delivering the next UK Climate Projections (UKCP - http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/). This product is used by local government and business to assess their vulnerability to climate change. A major set of model experiments, provided to the project by the Met Office, will be extensively scrutinised during the project. In producing large perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs), it is often difficult to examine each member of the ensemble in detail. By making the PPEs available to the project, the Met Office will draw on the combined expertise of the UK physical climate change community. These experiments are a core component of the next set of UK Climate Projections (UKCP18).
The general public, business and the education sector will benefit from the above events and from our public outreach work including press releases on high-profile papers and social media activity (e.g. Twitter).
Organisations
Publications
Chevuturi A
(2018)
Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios
in Earth's Future
Chevuturi A
(2022)
Projected Changes in the East Asian Hydrological Cycle for Different Levels of Future Global Warming
in Atmosphere
Harrington L
(2017)
Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming
in Environmental Research Letters
Harvey B
(2023)
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK
in International Journal of Climatology
King A
(2021)
Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
in Nature Climate Change
Mülmenstädt J
(2021)
The Fall and Rise of the Global Climate Model
in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Shonk J
(2019)
The impact of neglecting ice phase on cloud optical depth retrievals from AERONET cloud mode observations
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
Croad H
(2023)
The Indian Easterly Jet During the Pre-Monsoon Season in India
in Geophysical Research Letters
Huang X
(2020)
The Recent Decline and Recovery of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Relative Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability
in Journal of Climate
Kushnir Y
(2019)
Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate
in Nature Climate Change
Eunice Lo Y
(2020)
U.K. Climate Projections: Summer Daytime and Nighttime Urban Heat Island Changes in England's Major Cities
in Journal of Climate
Mulcahy J
(2023)
UKESM1.1: development and evaluation of an updated configuration of the UK Earth System Model
in Geoscientific Model Development
Shonk J
(2020)
Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Cui J
(2020)
Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate.
in Nature communications
Description | Citizen's Climate Assembly |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The UK Government formed a Citizen's Climate Assembly to discuss the priorities for reaching 'net-zero'. I gave evidence to the Assembly. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.climateassembly.uk |
Description | Monsoon climate change talk given at the annual Cockcroft-Walton special lecture series jointly hosted by the Indian Physics Association (IPA) & Institute of Physics (IOP), University of Hyderabad, 28 October 2020. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Monsoon climate change talk given at the annual Cockcroft-Walton special lecture series jointly hosted by the Indian Physics Association (IPA) & Institute of Physics (IOP), University of Hyderabad, 28 October 2020. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S95tGnzC4SU |
Description | Poster presentation at European Geophysical Union General Assembly 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Poster presentation at the annual European Geophysical Union 2018 General Assembly, Vienna, describing work on, "Mechanisms of Indian Summer Monsoon Change in the HAPPI 1.5C and 2.0C Future Climate Experiments" by J. Shonk and A. G. Turner. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2018/EGU2018-14448.pdf |