Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

Lead Research Organisation: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
Department Name: Science and Technology

Abstract

Shelf and coastal seas provide vital services for society, notably food, from fish, and climate regulation, through their role in drawing down and storing atmospheric CO2. The ecosystems of these seas are vulnerable to global climate change, arising from greenhouse gas emissions. Being able to provide reliable future projections of the impacts of climate change on these regions is therefore vital for our knowledge of how these services may be impacted. The overall purpose of the proposed work is to identify and quantify the potential future response to climate change of the simple plant life (phytoplankton) forming the base of the food chain of the shelf sea ecosystems and to assess the likely range of this response. To deliver this we use a state of the art coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model at an exceptionally fine resolution. This is driven by the output of global climate models, which along with aspects of the ecosystem model structure, are selected so as to span the potential response of the system to climate change, and provide a range of views of the future. Statistical methods are then used to characterise this response in terms of timeseries and changes in areas of similar properties (the biogeography), how clearly the climate signal can be detected and how this signal propagates through the food web.

We focus on six key indicators of ecosystem response on the Northwest European Continental shelf (termed intermediate services): primary production (plant growth), oxygen uptake, nutrient transport, uptake and recycling, biological control (how energy and material is transferred between different levels in the food web), and the habitat of the water column. The impact of climate change (through changes in the atmosphere, open ocean and terrestrial forcing) on the physical and chemical processes will affect these key indicators in different ways. Examples include: modification of the shelf sea nutrient distribution by changes in oceanic mixing, changes to the timing and magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms due to changes in wind mixing and light levels, and changes to sea water temperature directly affecting growth rates. The physical processes active in the regions of these seas where primary production is highest are generally of finer scale than many model systems can accommodate, examples include extra mixing generated by steep and variable topography, plumes of nutrient and sediment rich river water, and fronts between well mixed and seasonally stratified waters.
The potential effects of climate change on the finescale processes is largely unknown, but may radically change our view of the overall impact of climate change in these seas. Alongside the details of the physics, the complexity of the ecosystem must also be accounted for. There a several feedbacks at the base of the food web, which control how chemical energy cycles through the system. If different elements of this cycle, e.g. grazing by zooplankton and nutrient recycling by bacteria, respond to change in different ways then the overall effect may be amplified or suppressed. This amplification or suppression determines how vulnerable the overlying services (e.g. fish production) are to climate change, and hence the potential societal implications.

To address these issues we propose a tightly integrated programme of model experiment design, simulation, evaluation and analysis, organised in four work packages: Experiment design and uncertainty, Model validation using observational analysis, Analysis of ecosystem response, Model products. Together this will produce an unprecedented view of potential climate impacts on marine ecosystems, including the effects of fine-scale physical processes, non-linear ecosystem interactions and an assessment of the range of likely impacts. We will condense this information into a set of model products that are readily accessible by scientists of other disciplines and wider stakeholders.

Planned Impact

The project offers benefits for three different groups: Policy makers, including: UK government departments: particularly DEFRA and DECC, but potentially also DFID and MOD; UK governmental agencies such as CEFAS, MMO, Marine Scotland, AFBI, EA and Met Office, Intergovernmental bodies: ICES, EEA, OSPAR, and IPCC. Industry, including: Living Marine Resources: fisheries and aquaculture; mineral extraction: oil and gas; Insurance; off shore; renewable energy; maritime operations and transport. General public
How they will benifit:

Science into Policy:
The project will provide the first clear view of potential impacts of climate change on the lower trophic level ecosystem of the Northwest European shelf seas at a local to regional scale that includes estimates of uncertainty and confidence, and as such will be an important resource for informing future policy development, to adapt to and build resilience against this change. The two most relevant policy aspects, from a UK perspective, are the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). The MSFD requires EC member states to develop strategies to achieve a healthy marine environment and make ecosystems more resilient to climate change in all European marine waters by 2020 at the latest. This work will directly inform the resilience aspect and how these issues are likely to evolve 30 years beyond the MSFD target period. This is particular relevant to how characteristics, targets and indicators may change for the following high level descriptors of good environmental status: 1 Biodiversity; 4 Foodwebs; 5, Eutrophication; and 7 Hydrography. The CFP has committed itself to implement an ecosystem approach to fisheries management thereby aligning itself with the Integrated Maritime Policy and ensuring the sustainable provision of goods and services from living aquatic resources. This work provides important underpinning evidence as to what might constitute 'sustainable', which could, with added value from Fisheries scientists, be translated into realistic targets of Maximum sustainable Yield (as specified in the on-going CFP reform). The work also has the potential to help marine spatial planning for habitat identification and the definition of marine protected areas, and whether these have long-term resilience.
While the work here focuses on Northern European waters, the model tools are widely applicable to shelf seas around the world. The methodological aspect of this work potentially benefits other regions looking to perform similar model experiments and assessments in their shelf and coastal seas. This is especially relevant for less developed counties where benefits for food security and poverty alleviation issues are more substantial that in Northern European Seas.
The 'physics only' simulations provide a resource for other policy relevant issues, notably coastal defence and naval operations.

Wealth Creation:
There is a growing demand for rigorously assessed information about potential future climate states, apparent in the emerging 'Climate Services' sector. This work could feed information into this industry with a wide range of beneficiaries. The ecosystem focus of this work particularly lends its impact to the fisheries and aquaculture sectors, while the hydrodynamic simulation has direct relevance for the oil (maritime operations) and gas (pipe line efficiency) sectors. The near coastal nature of this work has potential relevance, with further work on sea level impacts, to the insurance industry interested in coastal flood risk. The specific benefits of this work would be the fine scale of the information and the treatment of uncertainty and confidence.

Media Relations and Public Engagement: There is considerable public interest in climate change effects in the marine environment and several groups could potentially benefit from this work through education, general interest and careers inspiration.
 
Description Increases in oceanic stratification can decouple boundary currents from topography, and so modefiy their ocean-shelf exchnage. This is a hitherto unappreciated impact of climate change in the regional marine environment.

The oceanic link between North Atlantic and Arctic climate change and the hydrodynamics and ecosystems of the North west European continental shelf has been demonstrated for the first time.

The relative impacts of solubility and ecosystem on shelf-sea oxygen change under future climate have been estimated. By 2100 mean near bed oxygen on the European shelf is projected to decrease by 6.3%.The solubility/ecosystem changes account for 73/27% of the mean oxygen decline. By 2100, the ecosystem impact exceeds that of solubility in regions of the North Sea. Area of oxygen depletion on the European shelf is projected to increase by ~240%.
Exploitation Route Further investigations of the impacts of climate change on the marine environment on shelf seas around the world
Sectors Aerospace

Defence and Marine

Agriculture

Food and Drink

Environment

URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661120301397?via%3Dihub
 
Description This work has supplied input to a Partlimetry Office of Science and technology breifing document on the impacts of climate change on UK fisheries.
First Year Of Impact 2019
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment
Impact Types Economic

Policy & public services

 
Description FOCUS: Future states Of the global Coastal ocean: Understanding for Solutions
Amount £5,589,872 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/X006271/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2022 
End 03/2026
 
Title Northwest Europe NEMO-ERSEM ocean model hindcast and climate projection under RCP8.5 
Description Dataset of model hindcast and climate projection data from a NEMO-ERSEM simulation of the 7km-resolution Atlantic Margin Model (AMM7). Model description and data are presented in Wakelin, S. L., Y. Artioli, J. T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. Blackford (2020), Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario, Progress in Oceanography, 102400. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102400. Coupled NEMO-ERSEM model simulations are used to study temperature, salinity and near-bed oxygen concentrations on the northwest European Continental Shelf (NWES). Data are from a hindcast (1980 to 2007) and a climate projection (1980 to 2099) under the RCP8.5 climate emissions scenario. The climate projection (1980 to 2099) under the RCP8.5 climate emissions scenario is described as experiment E1 in Holt, J., J. Polton, J. Huthnance, S. Wakelin, E. O'Dea, J. Harle, A. Yool, Y. Artioli, J. Blackford, J. Siddorn, and M. Inall (2018), Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(21), 11,827-811,836. doi: 10.1029/2018gl078878. The dataset consists of Hindcast simulation data AMM7_hindcast_3D_S_1980_2007.nc - monthly mean salinity fields. AMM7_hindcast_3D_T_1980_2007.nc - monthly mean temperature fields. AMM7_hindcast_near_bed_O2o_1980_2007.nc - near-bed oxygen concentrations on the NWES. Climate projection data AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_S_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean salinity fields. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_T_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean temperature fields. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_U_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean eastwards currents. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_V_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean northwards currents. AMM7_RCP8_5_near_bed_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean near-bed oxygen concentrations and near-bed bacterial respiration on the NWES. AMM7_RCP8_5_netPP_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean depth integrated net primary production. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3953801
 
Title Northwest Europe NEMO-ERSEM ocean model hindcast and climate projection under RCP8.5 
Description Dataset of model hindcast and climate projection data from a NEMO-ERSEM simulation of the 7km-resolution Atlantic Margin Model (AMM7). Model description and data are presented in Wakelin, S. L., Y. Artioli, J. T. Holt, M. Butenschön, and J. Blackford (2020), Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario, Progress in Oceanography, 102400. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102400. Coupled NEMO-ERSEM model simulations are used to study temperature, salinity and near-bed oxygen concentrations on the northwest European Continental Shelf (NWES). Data are from a hindcast (1980 to 2007) and a climate projection (1980 to 2099) under the RCP8.5 climate emissions scenario. The climate projection (1980 to 2099) under the RCP8.5 climate emissions scenario is described as experiment E1 in Holt, J., J. Polton, J. Huthnance, S. Wakelin, E. O'Dea, J. Harle, A. Yool, Y. Artioli, J. Blackford, J. Siddorn, and M. Inall (2018), Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(21), 11,827-811,836. doi: 10.1029/2018gl078878. The dataset consists of Hindcast simulation data AMM7_hindcast_3D_S_1980_2007.nc - monthly mean salinity fields. AMM7_hindcast_3D_T_1980_2007.nc - monthly mean temperature fields. AMM7_hindcast_near_bed_O2o_1980_2007.nc - near-bed oxygen concentrations on the NWES. Climate projection data AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_S_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean salinity fields. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_T_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean temperature fields. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_U_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean eastwards currents. AMM7_RCP8_5_3D_V_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean northwards currents. AMM7_RCP8_5_near_bed_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean near-bed oxygen concentrations and near-bed bacterial respiration on the NWES. AMM7_RCP8_5_netPP_1980_2099.nc - monthly mean depth integrated net primary production. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/3953800
 
Title RECICLE NW Shelf configuration 
Description NEMO model configuration for NW European shelf seas future climate simulations 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2022 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Provides a template for similar model experiments in different regions and applications 
URL https://zenodo.org/records/7308559
 
Title Selected near-bottom and other variables from NW European shelf physics-biogeochemistry downscaled ocean climate projections, 3-member ensemble. 
Description Selected fields of physical and biogeochemical ocean variables from a 3-member ensemble of coupled physics-biogeochemistry downscaled climate runs on the North Western European Continental Shelf. All ensemble members use the NEMO-ERSEM model suite and cover the 1990-2099 period. Easch member is foced with a different set of atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions from one of three CMIP5 ESMs that are: HADGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR and GFDL-ESM2G. This dataset contains monthly average values saved as 2D fields either near-bottom, at the surface or depth integrated. The variables here saved are near-bottom oxygen, oxygen solubility, oxygen saturation state, temperature and bacterial respiration, surface salinity, depth integrated net primary production, and potential energy anomaly. Additionally the Western Norwegian Trench Current flux is provided (its values come smoothed with a gaussian filter). reference publication: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1049. The complete set of variables is available from the authors upon request. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/8283355
 
Title Selected near-bottom and other variables from NW European shelf physics-biogeochemistry downscaled ocean climate projections, 3-member ensemble. 
Description Selected fields of physical and biogeochemical ocean variables from a 3-member ensemble of coupled physics-biogeochemistry downscaled climate runs on the North Western European Continental Shelf. All ensemble members use the NEMO-ERSEM model suite and cover the 1990-2099 period. Easch member is foced with a different set of atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions from one of three CMIP5 ESMs that are: HADGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR and GFDL-ESM2G. This dataset contains monthly average values saved as 2D fields either near-bottom, at the surface or depth integrated. The variables here saved are near-bottom oxygen, oxygen solubility, oxygen saturation state, temperature and bacterial respiration, surface salinity, depth integrated net primary production, and potential energy anomaly. Additionally the Western Norwegian Trench Current flux is provided (its values come smoothed with a gaussian filter). reference publication: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1049. The complete set of variables is available from the authors upon request. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL https://zenodo.org/record/8283354
 
Description Future Coastal Ocean Climates project endorsed by UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 
Organisation Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Department CSIRO Hobart
Country Australia 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution NOC leads this partnership
Collaborator Contribution During the UN Ocean Decade, FLAME aims to establish a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Programme (CO-MIP) that will provide climate change impacts and hazard assessments to the next and future IPCC reports. While climate change is increasingly better understood and modelled on global scales, climate impacts are most acutely felt across the coastal ocean, where rapidly expanding human populations are reliant upon coastal ecosystem resources and services and where they are most vulnerable to coastal hazards. Downscaling global and regional climate models to reliably project change in the coastal ocean however, where the land, ocean and human populations are intimately connected, is challenging. FLAME provides a set of high-level objectives and a framework within which the international research community can work together to improve high-resolution projections of the global coastal oceans responses to future climate, on decadal to centennial scales, and strengthen understanding of the impacts that this will have on coastal ecosystems, hazards and services.
Impact Successful workshop in Feb 2023 involving about 60 participants from over 15 counties.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Future Coastal Ocean Climates project endorsed by UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 
Organisation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
Country Italy 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution NOC leads this partnership
Collaborator Contribution During the UN Ocean Decade, FLAME aims to establish a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Programme (CO-MIP) that will provide climate change impacts and hazard assessments to the next and future IPCC reports. While climate change is increasingly better understood and modelled on global scales, climate impacts are most acutely felt across the coastal ocean, where rapidly expanding human populations are reliant upon coastal ecosystem resources and services and where they are most vulnerable to coastal hazards. Downscaling global and regional climate models to reliably project change in the coastal ocean however, where the land, ocean and human populations are intimately connected, is challenging. FLAME provides a set of high-level objectives and a framework within which the international research community can work together to improve high-resolution projections of the global coastal oceans responses to future climate, on decadal to centennial scales, and strengthen understanding of the impacts that this will have on coastal ecosystems, hazards and services.
Impact Successful workshop in Feb 2023 involving about 60 participants from over 15 counties.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Future Coastal Ocean Climates project endorsed by UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 
Organisation University of Alberta
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution NOC leads this partnership
Collaborator Contribution During the UN Ocean Decade, FLAME aims to establish a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Programme (CO-MIP) that will provide climate change impacts and hazard assessments to the next and future IPCC reports. While climate change is increasingly better understood and modelled on global scales, climate impacts are most acutely felt across the coastal ocean, where rapidly expanding human populations are reliant upon coastal ecosystem resources and services and where they are most vulnerable to coastal hazards. Downscaling global and regional climate models to reliably project change in the coastal ocean however, where the land, ocean and human populations are intimately connected, is challenging. FLAME provides a set of high-level objectives and a framework within which the international research community can work together to improve high-resolution projections of the global coastal oceans responses to future climate, on decadal to centennial scales, and strengthen understanding of the impacts that this will have on coastal ecosystems, hazards and services.
Impact Successful workshop in Feb 2023 involving about 60 participants from over 15 counties.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Future Coastal Ocean Climates project endorsed by UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 
Organisation University of Bologna
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution NOC leads this partnership
Collaborator Contribution During the UN Ocean Decade, FLAME aims to establish a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Programme (CO-MIP) that will provide climate change impacts and hazard assessments to the next and future IPCC reports. While climate change is increasingly better understood and modelled on global scales, climate impacts are most acutely felt across the coastal ocean, where rapidly expanding human populations are reliant upon coastal ecosystem resources and services and where they are most vulnerable to coastal hazards. Downscaling global and regional climate models to reliably project change in the coastal ocean however, where the land, ocean and human populations are intimately connected, is challenging. FLAME provides a set of high-level objectives and a framework within which the international research community can work together to improve high-resolution projections of the global coastal oceans responses to future climate, on decadal to centennial scales, and strengthen understanding of the impacts that this will have on coastal ecosystems, hazards and services.
Impact Successful workshop in Feb 2023 involving about 60 participants from over 15 counties.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Future Coastal Ocean Climates project endorsed by UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 
Organisation University of Calabria
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution NOC leads this partnership
Collaborator Contribution During the UN Ocean Decade, FLAME aims to establish a Global Coastal Ocean Model Intercomparison Programme (CO-MIP) that will provide climate change impacts and hazard assessments to the next and future IPCC reports. While climate change is increasingly better understood and modelled on global scales, climate impacts are most acutely felt across the coastal ocean, where rapidly expanding human populations are reliant upon coastal ecosystem resources and services and where they are most vulnerable to coastal hazards. Downscaling global and regional climate models to reliably project change in the coastal ocean however, where the land, ocean and human populations are intimately connected, is challenging. FLAME provides a set of high-level objectives and a framework within which the international research community can work together to improve high-resolution projections of the global coastal oceans responses to future climate, on decadal to centennial scales, and strengthen understanding of the impacts that this will have on coastal ecosystems, hazards and services.
Impact Successful workshop in Feb 2023 involving about 60 participants from over 15 counties.
Start Year 2022