Seismically-induced landslides in Chile: New tools for hazard assessment and disaster prevention
Lead Research Organisation:
University of East Anglia
Department Name: Environmental Sciences
Abstract
Landslides are a major source of fatalities and damage related with strong earthquakes, particularly in mountain areas. Forecasting the distribution and impact of landslides induced by earthquakes is one of the greatest challenges in the earth sciences. The behavior of slopes during seismic excitation is exceptionally complex, being dependent upon geological, geomorphological, geotechnical and seismological factors. This project aims to identify the main characteristics of landslide occurrence during strong earthquakes in Chile, improving the understanding of their mechanics, spatial distribution and controlling factors, obtaining quantifiable inputs for the development of a methodology for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment. This will be achieved through compiling and analyzing inventories for two Chilean earthquakes (Aysén 2007 and Maule 2010) to be compared with foreign landslide inventories; running a laboratory testing scheme in UK for better understanding of the mechanical causes of seismic slope failure; and applying those results on the development of a method for assessing the seismic stability of slopes in Chile. The new methodology will be verified in the Santiago region, which presents the highest population of the country and where an active fault has been recently discovered (San Ramón Fault). The outputs will include scientific publications, advanced human resource training as well as a new technique of hazard assessment applicable to urban/territorial planning and natural disaster prevention strategies in the country.
Planned Impact
Thus, at the end of each work package described in the Methodology section, we anticipate producing the following outputs:
Work Package One (WP1): compiling and analyzing inventories for two Chilean earthquakes
O1. Two new landslide inventories for earthquakes in Chile, both of which will be made available to other researchers;
O2: One or two papers, provisionally in the journals Geomorphology and/or Landslides, on the power law relationships for the Chile earthquake events, comparing these with pre-existing datasets and specifically exploring the role of depth and mechanism of rupture in determining the landslide distribution; and on the relationship between the landslide distribution and causative factors such as lithology, slope angle and relief.
Work Package Two (WP2): understanding the mechanical causes of seismic slope failure
O3. A new dataset on the behaviour of Chilean soils and weak rocks under static conditions and during seismic shaking'.
O4. A paper, provisionally to be published the Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology, on the behaviour of Chilean soils and rocks during seismic shaking. We will publish this as an open access publication to provide access to practitioners.
O5. A paper on the role of horizontal versus vertical shaking in promoting slope instability (provisionally to be published in Engineering Geology).
Work Package 3: Developing a methodology for assessing the seismic stability of slopes in Chile
O6. A new technique for the development of seismic slope stability maps for Chile. This output will be published in the form of a guidance note to be made freely available;
O7. A seismic slope stability map for the area close to the San Ramón Fault in Santiago, to be available for regional and local authorities.
O8. One or two publications, provisionally intended for Natural Hazards and Earth System Science (which is an open access journal) and/or Engineering Geology, on the on the back analysis of the landslide hazard associated with the 2007 Aysen and the 2010 Maule earthquakes, the development of a new technique for mapping seismic slope hazard and the resulting hazard map for San Ramón Fault in Santiago.
Work Package One (WP1): compiling and analyzing inventories for two Chilean earthquakes
O1. Two new landslide inventories for earthquakes in Chile, both of which will be made available to other researchers;
O2: One or two papers, provisionally in the journals Geomorphology and/or Landslides, on the power law relationships for the Chile earthquake events, comparing these with pre-existing datasets and specifically exploring the role of depth and mechanism of rupture in determining the landslide distribution; and on the relationship between the landslide distribution and causative factors such as lithology, slope angle and relief.
Work Package Two (WP2): understanding the mechanical causes of seismic slope failure
O3. A new dataset on the behaviour of Chilean soils and weak rocks under static conditions and during seismic shaking'.
O4. A paper, provisionally to be published the Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology, on the behaviour of Chilean soils and rocks during seismic shaking. We will publish this as an open access publication to provide access to practitioners.
O5. A paper on the role of horizontal versus vertical shaking in promoting slope instability (provisionally to be published in Engineering Geology).
Work Package 3: Developing a methodology for assessing the seismic stability of slopes in Chile
O6. A new technique for the development of seismic slope stability maps for Chile. This output will be published in the form of a guidance note to be made freely available;
O7. A seismic slope stability map for the area close to the San Ramón Fault in Santiago, to be available for regional and local authorities.
O8. One or two publications, provisionally intended for Natural Hazards and Earth System Science (which is an open access journal) and/or Engineering Geology, on the on the back analysis of the landslide hazard associated with the 2007 Aysen and the 2010 Maule earthquakes, the development of a new technique for mapping seismic slope hazard and the resulting hazard map for San Ramón Fault in Santiago.
Publications
Barlow J
(2015)
Seismically-induced mass movements and volumetric fluxes resulting from the 2010 Mw=7.2 earthquake in the Sierra Cucapah, Mexico
in Geomorphology
Brain M
(2015)
The effects of normal and shear stress wave phasing on coseismic landslide displacement Wave Phasing and Coseismic Landslides
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Carey J
(2016)
Dynamic liquefaction of shear zones in intact loess during simulated earthquake loading
in Landslides
De Pascale GP
(2021)
Liquiñe-Ofqui's fast slipping intra-volcanic arc crustal faulting above the subducted Chile Ridge.
in Scientific reports
Forlin P
(2016)
Exploring representativeness and reliability for late medieval earthquakes in Europe
in Natural Hazards
Froude M
(2018)
Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016
in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Froude M
(2018)
Global fatal landslide occurrence 2004 to 2016
Description | We now have a much improved understanding of the relationship between earthquake dynamics and landslide occurrence in subduction zone and intraplate earthquakes. This work is being written for publication. |
Exploitation Route | We will further develop this work in year 3. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Extensive blog posts and a number of talks at Schools and general audiences |
First Year Of Impact | 2015 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Title | Chile earthquake landslide database |
Description | We have compiled inventories of landslides triggered by recent earthquakes in Chile |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Thiese databases will both add to the global inventories and form the basis of our risk modelling work in year 3 |
Description | Sirius Potash |
Organisation | Sirius plc |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | A new developing link to support Sirius in the monitoring of the impacts of the new mine in North Yorkshire |
Collaborator Contribution | We are in discussion with Sirius around a range of projects |
Impact | No outputs as yet |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Work with the Gurkha Welfare Trust |
Organisation | Gurkha Welfare Trust |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Providing to advice to the Gurkha Welfare Trust in their disaster preparedness work in Nepal |
Collaborator Contribution | Providing specialist input and general guidance on the likelihood of future hazards |
Impact | N/A |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Hazards of Geography |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Talk in Hong Kong to a public audience about outcomes of research |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012 |
Description | Landslide Blog posts |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | About 100 posts on the Landslide Blog |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014,2015,2016 |
URL | http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ |
Description | Landslides and active tectonics, from a global view to the Andean context, open seminar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | One day seminar for industry and academia with presentations of award team members of main results of the project and open discussion, attended by about 70 people. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Landslides and active tectonics, from a global view to the Andean context, seminar for Chile Ministry of Public Works and Ministry of Housing |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Half day seminar for professionals of Chilean ministries of Housing and Public Works, with presentations of award team members of main results of the project, attended by about 40 people. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Presentation at the International Symposium on Mega Earthquake Induced Geo-disasters and Long Term Effects, Chengdu, China |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Keynote lecture at the 5th International Symposium on Mega Earthquake Induced Geo-disasters and Long Term Effects |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.mege.net/ |
Description | Progressive rock fracture conference, Switzerland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
Results and Impact | Invited speaker at the Progressive Rock Fracture Conference and Workshop, Monte Verita, Switzerland: The effects of stress path and strain rate on the confined compressive strength and failure mode of brittle rocks. June 2017. Invited talk, increasing awareness into research on brittle failure. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Royal Geographical Society lecture at the City of London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | RGS lecture at the Clothworkers Hall in the City of London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Ryoal Geographical Society Monday Night Lecture |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Monday night lecture to the Royal Geographical Society. Audience of about 700 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | School Visit - St Edwards School, Boston Spa, West Yorks |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Presentation (Life as an Earth Scientist) to primary school children during British Science Week to promote study of and careers in science. St. Edward's School, Boston Spa, West Yorkshire, UK. March 2017. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Seminar at ETH Zürich, Switzerland. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Research seminar at Department of Earth Sciences, ETH Zürich, Switzerland: Seismicity and rock slope failure: Laboratory insights into landscape-scale behaviour. May 2017. Good attendance by postgraduate students studying engineering geology. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Session at Prince's Teaching Institute conference, Cambridge |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk at PTI summer school on Himalayan tectonics |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Sixth Form Conference, London 2014 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | About 1000 students at a sixth form Geography conference in Victoria in London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Sixth Form Conference, Manchester (2015) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | About 1000 students at a sixth form Geography conference in Manchester |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Talk at Bootham School in York |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk to a 6th Form conference at Bootham School in York |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Talk at Guildford High School to Geographical Association |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk to about 150 on Nepal Earthquake |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Talk at a 6th Form Conference in Nottingham, December 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | A presentation to about 400 6th Formers at a schools conferemce |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Talk to the Geographical Association |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Talk tto the Birmingham Branch of the Geographical Association |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Talk to the Gurkha Welfare Trust |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | A talk to the Board of the Gurkha Welfare Trust in London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |