Natural Hazards
Lead Research Organisation:
UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Nicholas Reynard (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Barker L
(2016)
The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK : a hydrological appraisal
in Weather
Bell V
(2017)
A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Bell V
(2018)
Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
in Hydrology Research
Bliefernicht J
(2018)
The WASCAL Hydrometeorological Observatory in the Sudan Savanna of Burkina Faso and Ghana
in Vadose Zone Journal
Booy O
(2017)
Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species
in Biological Invasions
Chapman DS
(2016)
Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.
in Global change biology
Comyn-Platt E
(2018)
Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks
in Nature Geoscience
Cox PM
(2018)
Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.
in Nature
Crooks S
(2015)
Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?
in Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Ewing DA
(2016)
Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes.
in Journal of theoretical biology
| Description | Horizon scanning for non-native species: Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon-scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. A horizon scanning exercise, led by CEH and involving scientists from more than 20 research institutes and universities, identified 30 high risk species with potential to threaten British biodiversity, including the quagga mussel, sacred ibis, the brush-clawed shore crab, the Asian hornet, and the American water-milfoil. This was published recently in Global Change Biology and has been reported in the Independent, BBC Farming Today and BBC News On-line. Additionally the list of species has been adopted by the Non-Native Species Secretariat to inform GB non-native species surveillance. Winter floods of 2013/14 : During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. CEH scientists attended several SAGE meetings to provide advice and analysis for COBR during winter floods. Specifically the CEH Grid-2-Grid model was used provide a rapid assessment of the hydrological impacts of a range of potential rainfall scenarios from the Met Office. A key research question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. CEH, in partnership with the Met Office, Reading University, Exeter University, and Oxford University, assessed the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall to provide a summary document that collated and discussed all possible drivers . Multiple possible UK rainfall drivers were identified -although the precise details of linkages between changing large-scale features of the climate system and UK rainfall intensity are still not fully understood. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes, and so we need to ensure that all heavy rainfall "return times" are fully sampled. Subsequently CEH have been working with Oxford University to determine the degree to which the rainfall and flooding of the winter 2013/14 can be attributed to climate drivers. Initial results suggest that the risk of experiencing this type of event has been increased due to anthropogenic influences on the climate system (paper in draft). G2G surface water flood forecasting trial for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games: A new surface water flood risk forecasting system has been developed by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, working with CEH, Deltares and James Hutton Institute. It provides the UK's first operational grid-based surface water flood risk forecast with a 24-hour lead time. At the heart of the system is CEH's Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model. The new system now exploits G2G estimates of surface water runoff which can cause in situ flooding when water ponds at the surface. A particularly novel aspect of the new system is that the tool goes beyond forecasting the likely location of surface water flooding to embrace information on potential impacts on people, property and transport. The system was made operational and trialled for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games where surface water flooding presented a real threat. The Games were fortunate in that surface water flooding was only a real concern on the final Sunday when cycle road races through the city experienced hazardous surface water ponding. The system successfully identified the hazard, and increased the forecast likelihood of a potential minor impact from low to medium as the event got closer. Following positive feedback, the Glasgow pilot continues and plans to expand coverage are under development. Climate change and vector-borne disease: In 2017 CEH led an international team of scientists to analyse and project impacts of urbanisation, deforestation and agricultural intensification as well as climate change on occurrences of leishmaniasis diseases in the Americas. The researchers found climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns of leishmaniasis. Findings suggest that under future climatic change both diseases are predicted to contract in geographical extent over the next three decades to 2050 - with cutaneous leishmaniasis reducing by between 35% and 50% in extent across the region Launch of new Flood Estimation Handbook online: The new FEH Web Service was delivered in early November 2015 to coincide with the release of WHS's software upgrade to the ReFH2 design rainfall-runoff method. There are now about 320 registered users in the UK Natural flood alleviation: in 2017 CEH published results of a systematic review of the current evidence in order to inform policy and planning decisions, and to identify knowledge gaps and areas for priority research. Analysis of the small number of observational studies that differentiate on the basis of flood magnitude suggests that whilst there is strong evidence of an influence during small floods, the majority of observational studies relating to large floods report that trees have no observable influence on flood peak. Extreme event analysis: Following the floods of winter 2013/14, we used large ensembles of climate model simulations, produced by Oxford University's weather@home system, to investigate the extent to which these floods could be attributed to climate change. we showed that emissions are likely to have increased extreme 30-day-average river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows. The simulated river flows were then used to investigate the effect on flood damages, by JBA Consulting, who showed a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding. The results demonstrated the importance of explicit modelling of impacts, rather than just looking at changes in rainfall |
| Exploitation Route | na |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Construction Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy |
| Description | 1.1 Meeting CEHs Challenges The 'Natural Hazards' Science Area will deliver to all three strategic areas but primarily to 'Building Resilience to Environmental Hazards' by improving the understanding of our exposure to the risks from floods and droughts, developing improved flood forecasts from hours to days and weeks ahead, developing a drought monitoring and prediction service and a better understanding of the threats from invasive alien species through improved horizon-scanning. 2 Science Area Objectives Each Science Area has identified a number of ambitions to achieve by 2019 focused around higher level Objectives: 1. Improving our understanding of the threats to people and the environment from natural hazards. 2. Better predict and forecast the onset, frequency and magnitude of natural hazards. 3. Mitigate the impacts and improve our management of natural hazards 3 Research highlights 3.1 Horizon scanning for non-native species Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon-scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. A horizon scanning exercise, led by CEH and involving scientists from more than 20 research institutes and universities, identified 30 high risk species with potential to threaten British biodiversity, including the quagga mussel, sacred ibis, the brush-clawed shore crab, the Asian hornet, and the American water-milfoil. This was published recently in Global Change Biology and has been reported in the Independent, BBC Farming Today and BBC News On-line. Additionally the list of species has been adopted by the Non-Native Species Secretariat to inform GB non-native species surveillance. 3.2 Winter floods of 2013/14 During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. CEH scientists attended several SAGE meetings to provide advice and analysis for COBR during winter floods. Specifically the CEH Grid-2-Grid model was used provide a rapid assessment of the hydrological impacts of a range of potential rainfall scenarios from the Met Office. A key research question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. CEH, in partnership with the Met Office, Reading University, Exeter University, and Oxford University, assessed the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall to provide a summary document that collated and discussed all possible drivers . Multiple possible UK rainfall drivers were identified -although the precise details of linkages between changing large-scale features of the climate system and UK rainfall intensity are still not fully understood. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes, and so we need to ensure that all heavy rainfall "return times" are fully sampled. Subsequently CEH have been working with Oxford University to determine the degree to which the rainfall and flooding of the winter 2013/14 can be attributed to climate drivers. Initial results suggest that the risk of experiencing this type of event has been increased due to anthropogenic influences on the climate system (paper in draft). 3.3 G2G surface water flood forecasting trial for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games A new surface water flood risk forecasting system has been developed by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, working with CEH, Deltares and James Hutton Institute. It provides the UK's first operational grid-based surface water flood risk forecast with a 24-hour lead time. At the heart of the system is CEH's Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model. The new system now exploits G2G estimates of surface water runoff which can cause in situ flooding when water ponds at the surface. In particular, G2G can take account not only of rainfall intensity, but also the effect of paved surfaces, terrain slope and antecedent wetness conditions on surface runoff generation. A particularly novel aspect of the new system is that the tool goes beyond forecasting the likely location of surface water flooding to embrace information on potential impacts on people, property and transport. The system was made operational and trialled for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games where surface water flooding presented a real threat. The Games were fortunate in that surface water flooding was only a real concern on the final Sunday when cycle road races through the city experienced hazardous surface water ponding. The system successfully identified the hazard, and increased the forecast likelihood of a potential minor impact from low to medium as the event got closer. Following positive feedback, the Glasgow pilot continues and plans to expand coverage are under development. 3.4 The effects of snow in Britain: the historical picture and future projections CEH were asked to review the historical and potential future effects of snow in Britain, for an update to the Water Climate Change Impacts Report Card (first published in 2013; http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/partnerships/lwec/products/report-cards/water/). The review covered snowfall and lying snow the influence of snow on river flows (water quantity and quality), and the effect of snow on other factors of socio-economic or environmental importance, including transport services, other services/businesses (e.g. power supplies, health services), and farming and wildlife. It also highlighted some knowledge gaps. Alongside the review, we also used data from the 11-member UKCP09 Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble to drive the Grid-to-Grid hydrological model, both with and without a snowmelt modelling component, to investigate the potential impacts of climate change and the effect of snow on flood peaks The analysis indicates large future reductions in the ensemble mean of the number of lying snow days across the country This in turn affects the seasonality of peak river flows in some parts of the country; for northerly regions, annual maximum flows are expected to occur earlier in the (water) year in the future. For more southerly regions the changes are less straightforward, and more likely to be driven by changes in rainfall patterns than snow 3.5 Projecting future changes in flooding using high-resolution climate model data Data from RCMs are often used to drive hydrological models to investigate the potential impacts of climate change, particularly for flood and droughts. Previously, some form of further downscaling of RCM data (typically on an approximately 25x25km grid) has been required for hydrological modelling, but recently the first decadal-length runs of very high resolution RCMs (with convection-permitting scales of ~1.5km) have been performed, by the NERC Changing Water Cycle project CONVEX, for both current and future time-slices. We have used these data, alongside equivalent 12km resolution data, to investigate the effect of climate model resolution on projections of change in peak river flows under climate change. Results showed clear differences in projected changes in flood peaks, with the 1.5km RCM tending towards larger increases than the 12km RCM, particularly in spring and winter If robust, this could have important consequences for adaptation planning under climate change, but further research is required, particularly given that there are greater biases in baseline flow simulations driven by 1.5km RCM data than 12km RCM data, and that only one short future climate projection has been applied 3.6 Flood event attribution for Winter 2013/14 A number of storms occurred across Southern England in winter 2013/2014, causing severe flooding. We used large ensembles of climate model simulations, produced by Oxford University's weather@home system, to investigate the extent to which these floods could be attributed to climate change. Hydrological modelling for the Thames@Kingston, using an ensemble representing the actual conditions in Winter 13/14, alongside ensembles representing conditions as they could have been had anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not occurred in the past (natural conditions), we showed that emissions are likely to have increased extreme 30-day-average river flows in the Thames ), and slightly increased daily peak flows. The simulated river flows were then used to investigate the effect on flood damages, by JBA Consulting, who showed a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty. The results demonstrated the importance of explicit modelling of impacts, rather than just looking at changes in rainfall. This work was published in Nature Climate Change, and received much publicity. 3.7 Supporting Government policy on floods CEH played an active role in the Government response to the winter 2015-16 flooding. We were members of the Scientific Advisory Group of the National Flood Resilience Review (NFRR) group, undertaking rapid flood estimation and statistical analyses to address specific questions from COBR (Cabinet Office Briefing Room), politicians and the public. We also undertook national-scale work using the CEH Grid-to-Grid model for the Strategic Management Cell looking to provide longer lead time warnings of flooding. CEH also submitted written evidence to the NFRR and the EFRA Inquiry (http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/environment-food-and-rural-affairs-committee/future-flood-prevention/written/30446.html) CEH were involved in two and supported a third (Flooding) of four projects commissioned by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change to provide information for the Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2). These covered projections for UK water availability and developing H++ scenarios of climate change and its impacts . CEH was also a co-author of chapter 5 (People and the Built Environment) of the main CCRA2 Technical report (https://documents.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-5-People-and-the-built-environment.pdf) 3.8 FEH November 2015 saw the launch of CEH's new FEH Web Service which for the first time provides on-line access to the data and rainfall model outputs that lie at the core of the flood frequency estimation procedures presented in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) and its subsequent updates. The Web Service provides hydrological catchment information (descriptors) for more than four million sites across the UK that drain an area of at least 0.5 km2. It also provides rainfall depth-duration-frequency information for the catchments and for selected points derived from the new FEH13 and original FEH99 rainfall models. In addition, a point data extraction tool enables drainage engineers, SuDS practitioners and developers to assess drainage design and development viability more accurately. This improved method incorporates FEH13 rainfall estimates and soil and climate properties at 1km resolution, giving users even more accurate runoff estimates from development plots using the latest version of the ReFH rainfall-runoff design method. 3.9 Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. In this paper we present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks 3.10 Improving understanding of invasive alien pathogens and impacts on biodiversity Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Of the 100 "world's worst" invasive alien species listed by the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature), 24 species have environmental impacts that are linked to diseases in wildlife. Whilst parasites and pathogens are often key players in invasions, there is surprisingly little known about the biology of alien pathogens and their biodiversity impacts. Horizon-scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, is a useful approach for prioritising IAS for action and identification of knowledge gaps. To improve understanding of invasive alien pathogens threatening wildlife within natural and semi-natural systems in Europe, CEH led a horizon scanning workshop using consensus approaches with 38 experts from 13 European countries funded under the COST action "Alien Challenge". Included were pathologists and ecologists with expertise ranging from conservation biology and invasion ecology, to wildlife epidemiology and disease management. A list of ten key research priorities relating to all aspects of invasion process, from introduction to impact, was identified by consensus and a series of policy recommendations were agreed. There was unanimous acceptance that invasion events by pathogens, and particularly epidemiological events, are very difficult to predict. The development of interdisciplinary capacity, expertise and coordination to identify and manage threats was seen as critical to address knowledge gaps and improve predictive capacity. 3.11 The UK Environmental Predictor CEH, with the Met Office and NOC have been developing an integrated, high resolution modelling suite for atmosphere, marine, hydrological, land surface and ecosystem modelling to demonstrate a UK coupled environmental prediction system and to accelerate the pull through and integration of national-scale high resolution environmental prediction capabilities to useful science and services. Within this project the JULES model has been modified to more accurately simulate high and low flows for the UK. The model was tested over 13 catchments and compared with a hydrological model (CLASSIC-GB) and to observed river flows. The model formulation of runoff-generation was explored with sensitivity tests and a new parameterisation was developed. 3.12 Drought -DrIVER DrIVER is an international, Belmont Forum funded project aiming to enhance drought monitoring and early warning. A number of key outputs have now been produced. • The datasets of SPI and SPEI were delivered to provide the foundation of the UK Drought Portal (datasets available with DOIs). These datasets will provide a foundation for UK drought analysis, and improved monitoring and early warning tools for the UK. • The first application of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to the UK including the first major application nationwide comparing SPI and SSI for UK catchments shedding new light on drought propagation in the UK. We also examined suitable statistical distributions for SPI and SSI application- the most extensive systematic testing of this type internationally, and found a novel distribution (the Tweedie distribution) performed best. A key focus of DrIVER has been linking indicators with observed impacts, in order to validate the efficacy of drought indicators. Much effort was put into improving UK impact data and populating the European Drought Impacts Inventory which initially contained little UK data whereas now it contains more impact entries than any other country With our collaborators in University of Freiburg, we then undertook a first analysis statistically linking drought indicators to impacts for UK and Germany finding important regional and seasonal differences in the most appropriate indicators for detecting drought impacts . The first round of DrIVER stakeholder workshops has also been completed: North Carolina (Dec 2014), UK (March 2015), Adelaide (March 2016). All workshops engaged a wide range of stakeholders, and those providing monitoring and early warning information products. The aim of each event was to explore current practice and future aspirations and offered an opportunity to compare across countries. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2015 |
| Sector | Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Description | CEH sign a Memorandum of Agreement with the General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design (GIWP) (Ministry of Water Resources), based in China. |
| Organisation | Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research |
| Country | China |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Scientists from the two organisations will now co-operate in a number of areas, including: water resources and hydro-ecological assessment natural water assets (Natural Capital) accounting economic valuation of water catchment management Flood and drought planning and risk assessment Climate change risk assessment |
| Collaborator Contribution | Scientists from the two organisations will now co-operate in a number of areas, including: water resources and hydro-ecological assessment natural water assets (Natural Capital) accounting economic valuation of water catchment management Flood and drought planning and risk assessment Climate change risk assessment |
| Impact | Collaborative partnership working on hydrological research projects |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Title | FEH Web Service |
| Description | The FEH Web Service updates and replaces the FEH CD-ROM application and supports all the previous export formats for use in the WINFAP3 and ReFH2 modelling software |
| Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
| Year Produced | 2015 |
| Impact | A core driver of our recent software development work is to reduce the costs of access for the occasional user and to provide clear, easy to use software that meets the needs of users with a wide range of experience. Informed by feedback from users, the methods and software have been frequently revised and updated to ensure that the best science is available to industry |
| Description | CEH hydrologists showcase their flood estimation expertise at Flood & Coast 2017 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | The event brought together key stakeholders from the flood and coastal erosion risk management community including local authorities, businesses, community groups and infrastructure owners including water utilities. CEH researchers promoting the FEH methods - particularly the use of the FEH Web Service and the software products ReFH2 and WINFAP 4. CEH provided flood frequency estimation expertise. The team also showcased ongoing research developing an alternative hydrological modelling approach to flood frequency estimation for use in regional with only limited river flow records. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
| Description | CEh presents on the role citizen science and international information sharing in advancing research on invasion ecology at a British Ecological Society symposium |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The symposium brings together a broad range of international and UK-based invasion ecologists and macroecologists - working on many taxonomic groups - to develop a global understanding of alien species distribution.Professor Roy shared her expertise |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |