NCEO Data Assimilation

Lead Research Organisation: National Centre for Earth Observation

Abstract

The NCEO Data Assimilation Programme aims to develop the theory of data assimilation, particularly methods to treat uncertainty in the data and models, so that our work underpins other applications within NCEO and our partner agencies. EO data come from a wide variety of sources, they are distributed non-uniformly in space and time and all have different kinds of distortions affecting them - from environmental factors to engineering and orbital distortions. Scientists and other users need their data to be a quality controlled, digital rendition of the real world on a regional or global grid for analysis and prediction. Data assimilation - the technique of combining optimally information from models with diverse observations - achieves this. It is a technique at the heart of weather and seasonal to decadal climate forecasting, and one of central importance for a variety of applications within NCEO. We will provide optimal estimates of the evolving state of a system and generate statistics on observation and model mismatches, which enable flaws to be identified in both. We are able to estimate unknown parameters in models so that we can analyse quantitatively how proposed new systems will work before they are built. Our key challenges are: a) using very high resolution and complex models; b) presenting coupled systems which have very different scales in both time and space; c) presenting very highly non-linear systems; d) estimating surface fluxes and sources from EO data; e) assessing quantitatively the impact of novel observing systems.

Publications

10 25 50

publication icon
A.M. Fowler (Co-Author) (2013) A nonlinear method for channel selection

publication icon
A.S. Lawless (Co-Author) (2013) Instability and regularization in data assimilation

publication icon
Ades M (2013) An exploration of the equivalent weights particle filter in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

publication icon
Ades M (2015) The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

publication icon
Bannister R (2008) Modelling of forecast errors in geophysical fluid flows in International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids

 
Description Those of last year's submission, deleted by accident.
Exploitation Route see last year's submission, deleted by accident.
Sectors Environment

 
Description Data Assimilation in Highly Nonlinear geophysical Systems: Particle Filters with Localization
Amount £256,319 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/H008853/1 
Organisation Research Councils UK (RCUK) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2010 
End 09/2013
 
Description Data Assimilation in Highly Nonlinear geophysical Systems: Particle Filters with Localization
Amount £256,319 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/H008853/1 
Organisation Research Councils UK (RCUK) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Evaluation and parameterisation of individual-based models of animal populations
Amount £257,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/K006282/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2013 
End 03/2016
 
Description Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation
Amount £76,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/K008900/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2013 
End 03/2016
 
Description Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation
Amount £875,494 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/K008900/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2013 
End 03/2016
 
Description Next Generation Numerical Weather Prediction: 4DVar Ensembles and Particle Filters
Amount £247,362 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/I025484/1 
Organisation Research Councils UK (RCUK) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Next Generation Numerical Weather Prediction: 4DVar Ensembles and Particle Filters
Amount £247,362 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/I025484/1 
Organisation Research Councils UK (RCUK) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2012 
End 05/2015
 
Description SANGOMA - Stochastic Assimilation for the Next Generation Ocean Model Applications
Amount £177,546 (GBP)
Funding ID 283580 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2011 
End 03/2015
 
Description SANGOMA - Stochastic Assimilation for the Next Generation Ocean Model Applications
Amount £177,546 (GBP)
Funding ID 283580 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start  
 
Description Treatment of model bias in coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation
Amount £425,670 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/J005835/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2012 
End 03/2015
 
Description Advance data assimilation methods 
Organisation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution European Space Agency joint project
Start Year 2012
 
Description Advance data assimilation methods 
Organisation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution European Space Agency joint project
Start Year 2012
 
Description Data assimilation and ill posed problems 
Organisation University of Bath
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration
Start Year 2012
 
Description Data assimilation for modelling of the carbon cycle 
Organisation Forest Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution NERC Open CASE PhD Project
Start Year 2013
 
Description Data assimilation for numerical weather forecasting 
Organisation United States Naval Research Laboratory
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Exchange of expertise
Start Year 2005
 
Description Data assimilation for numerical weather forecasting 
Organisation United States Naval Research Laboratory
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Exchange of expertise
Start Year 2005
 
Description Data assimilation in ice-sheet models 
Organisation Joseph Fourier University
Country France 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Exchange of expertise
Start Year 2006
 
Description Data assimilation in ice-sheet models 
Organisation Joseph Fourier University
Country France 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Exchange of expertise
Start Year 2006
 
Description Flooding from Intense Rainfall 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution NERC Research Project
Start Year 2013
 
Description Impact of the initialization in global dynamical decadal climate forecasts 
Organisation Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3)
Country Spain 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration, Joint PhD student
Start Year 2010
 
Description Impact of the initialization in global dynamical decadal climate forecasts 
Organisation Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3)
Country Spain 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration, Joint PhD student
Start Year 2010
 
Description Individual Based Bayesian Models 
Organisation University of Bristol
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution NERC Research Project
Start Year 2013
 
Description Instability and regularization in data assimilation 
Organisation German Weather Service
Country Germany 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution EPSRC PhD studentship joint supervision
Start Year 2010
 
Description Modelling of the carbon cycle 
Organisation University of Surrey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration
Start Year 1998
 
Description Modelling of the carbon cycle 
Organisation University of Surrey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research collaboration
Start Year 1998
 
Description Numerical weather prediction and use of satellite data 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution NERC CASE PhD Projects
Start Year 1993
 
Description Numerical weather prediction and use of satellite data 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution NERC CASE PhD Projects
Start Year 1993
 
Description Climate-Model Misgivings 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Web article

Increased the science community's knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Conditioning of the Weak-Constraint 4DVAR Problem 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

Increased the international science community's knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Data assimilation for an idealised coupled atmosphere-ocean model 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

No description available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Data assimilation research seminar (1) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact On 7 March 2013, Professor Nancy Nichols gave an invited research seminar on data assimilation to the US Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California, USA.

No description available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Data assimilation research seminar (2) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Professor Nancy Nichols was an invited speaker at Stanford University, California, USA, on 31 January 2013.

Increased the knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Data assimilation research seminar (3) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Professor Nancy Nichols was invited to give a research seminar at the US Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey California, USA, on 5 April 2012.

No description available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Error Dynamics and Instability in Data Assimilation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

Increased the science community's knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Exploring Coupled 4D-Var Data Assimilation using an Idealised Atmosphere-Ocean Model 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

Increased the science community's knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Have the Weatherman Vanquished Chaos? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact We are often described as a nation preoccupied by weather, and we've certainly had plenty to talk about over the last few weeks. The wind and rain continue their relentless assault, and the headlines focus, quite rightly, on the plight of those worst affected - what should be done to...

Increased the community's knowledge and understanding of science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Incorporating Correlated Observation Errors in Ensemble Data Assimilation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

Increased the science community's knowledge and understanding of NCEO's science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Incorporating Representativity Error in Data Assimilation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact n/a

No description available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Incorporating Representativity Error in Data Assimilation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Professor Nancy Nichols gave an oral presentation at the Workshop on Probabilistic Approaches to Data Assimilation for Earth Systems at the Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery, Canada, February 2012.

Received request for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Opening the Black Box: The Invisible Science of Climate Models 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact While the residents of the Somerset Levels languish in the miserable conditions brought by incessant deluges, the Energy and Climate Change Committee is today holding its first evidence session into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Review.



The climate debate is now fuelled, not only by controversial policies such as carbon tax, but by a sense of urgency: from Somerset to Saskatchewan and from Adelaide to Atlanta, weather has been hitting us hard. One of the topics up for debate by the Commons Select Committee is the enduring problem concerning the reliability of climate models: results differ, perhaps even contradict each other, and don't agree with observations - ergo the models are flawed.....

Increased the community's knowledge and understanding of science.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Radio Interview, Nancy Nichols, on Lifetime of Achievement in Science 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Professor Nancy Nichols was interviewed on BBC's Radio Berkshire by Anne Diamond, on 13 September 2012, for Nancy's Lifetime of Achievement in Science, Engineering, Technology and Mathematics.

No description available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description S Kemp Euro Geophysical Union Talk: Limiting the parameter space within the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Sarah Kemp gave a talk at EGU 12 April 2013: Limiting the parameter space within the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System

Increased the understanding of data assimilation science in the academic community.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013