NCAS Climate and High Impact Weather

Lead Research Organisation: NERC National Ctr for Atmospheric Sci


High impact Weather events such as storms, heatwaves and cold spells can result in substantial socio-economic impacts on water resources, infrastructure, agriculture and public health. To mitigate the risks of High Impact Weather, society needs improved early warnings, risk assessments and further knowledge on the impact of climate change. Our priority is to understand the processes behind different types of high-impact weather events (such as convective storms, cyclonic storms, cold spells, heatwaves and droughts) as well as large-scale modes of variability.


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Lu J (2019) Interannual Variations in Lower Stratospheric Ozone During the Period 1984-2016 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

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Lopez-Villalobos C (2021) Effects of wind power spectrum analysis over resource assessment in Renewable Energy

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Lee J (2020) The links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and European weather regimes in Theoretical and Applied Climatology

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Leach NJ (2021) Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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Juckes M (2020) The CMIP6 Data Request (DREQ, version 01.00.31) in Geoscientific Model Development

Description The programme has been influential in a number of different areas relating to the science of climate and high-impact weather, by furthering our understanding of:
1. Weather forecasting of storms and extreme precipitation in the UK and Europe.
2. Improving subseasonal to seasonal forecast skill for European weather, El Nino, and the Indian Summer Monsoon.
3. The projected climate change responses of heat waves, tropical cyclones, mid-latitude storms, monsoon rainfall, and anticyclonic blocking.
4. The variability and predictability of convective storms and the processes controlling the development of convection (e.g. aerosol-cloud interactions).
Exploitation Route The science theme covers a broad range of topics in the area of Climate and High Impact Weather. Key ways that others may take the outcomes forward include:

1. Academics: Working in the area of environmental impacts and environmental science.

2. Government, NGOs and industry: Informing UK and global policy on natural hazards and climate change and helping users assess key environmental risks

3. Operational forecast centres: Results will help to improve weather and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on timescales of days to months.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice

Description This submission relates to the NCAS research programme on Climate and High-Impact Weather. The outputs of the NCAS science theme have resulted in impacts in a wide range of areas, which include: 1. International assessments, the most prominent example of which is contributing to and reviewing the next IPCC assessment on climate change. 2. Research has had substantial impact on NGOs and UK Government Departments (especially DFID/FCOD). This includes tailoring meteorological forecast information for a range of humanitarian agencies in anticipation of, and in response to, impending monthly and seasonal-scale precipitation and weather extremes such as El Nino and La Nina. 3. Outputs have also been used develop risk assessment tools in the private sector and operational forecast centres. Examples include an insurance risk models of correlated wind and flood risk in the UK and a tool to help the UK Met Office assess sting-jet precursors in weather forecasts of severe windstorms.
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

Description IPCC AR6 Lead Author / Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; International Organisations/Committees; UNFCCC
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee