A Dynamic and Controllable Building Stock model: to identify the quantity of energy flexibility present in UK homes.

The proposed transition from gas to electrified heating for dwellings in the UK, has a problem. There is not enough peak capacity in the UK's electrical grid to accommodate this new demand, due to differences in daily supply and demand profiles. National Grid (GB) and UK Government have recognised this issue and are seeking ways to mitigate peaks in electrical demand.

One approach to reduce this impact on the grid is to use Demand Side Response (DSR), this is where peaks in demand are anticipated and demand, where possible, is reduced for a duration of time. National Grid (GB) expects DSR will be required in some form in their predicted future energy scenarios.

This research aims to identify the potential reduction in peaks of demand possible through temporary reduction in space heating in electrically heated dwellings (by direct electric and air/ground source heat pumps), whilst keeping occupants comfortable. This will indicate the potential energy flexibility available in UK dwellings. What can be provided by their current fabric and controls, and what level of fabric retrofit is required for a dwelling to provide energy flexibility.

This energy flexibility in homes will be identified by creating a dynamic and controllable model based on the common house types in the UK, and then applying DSR for various periods of time. This will be achieved by using house types from the English Housing Survey in association with Modelica Building Library associated with Dymola modelling tools.

As part of the research, a new validation method for national scale heat load models will be created, by determining suitable metrics for quantifying and characterizing energy flexibility in houses. To achieve this, data will be collected to calibrate and validate the model and provide data for future research in DSR.

Associated ESPRC research areas:
Built Environment
Energy Networks
End Use Energy Demand (Energy Efficiency)
Energy Storage

The low carbon energy systems needed to achieve the Government's carbon 2050 reduction targets promise declining generation costs, but at the price of inflexibility and intermittency. The challenge is to contain costs and improve energy system security, by building in resilience. The opportunities include: more efficient energy conversion, networks and storage technologies; improved energy control and management systems; integration of energy performance into modern methods of construction; improved measurement, display and control systems; and new business models. This will bring pervasive economic benefits: the creation of new intellectual property and expertise; businesses with the ability to compete in the huge new markets for energy efficiency and resilience, both in the UK and overseas; healthier and more productive places to work and live; and a means to address social hardship and inequalities, such as fuel poverty, which affects the health and wellbeing of society's most vulnerable. Seizing these opportunities requires leaders with multi-disciplinary knowledge, skills and whole-system perspective to break down restrictive, sector-specific silos, and drive innovation. The ERBE CDT will train such leaders.

The short and medium term impacts of the ERBE CDT will arise during the training of these leaders and through their research outputs and collaborations. These will include, but are not be restricted to: new approaches to analysis; new insights derived from large datasets; new modelling methods and ways of using existing models; new experimental techniques; field and laboratory measurement techniques; improved socio-technical methods; new manufacturing methods, devices, primary data sets, and patents; and, together with our industrial stakeholders, the integration of research into the business innovation process.

The longer term impacts will be realised over the next 40 years as ERBE graduates take on influential roles in diverse organisations, including:
- national and local governmental organisations that are developing affordable and socially acceptable evidence-based energy policies;
- energy supply and services companies that are charged with delivering a clean reliable and economical system, through deployment of energy efficiency products and technologies within an evolving energy system architecture;
- technology companies that are developing new components for energy generation and storage, new heating, cooling and ventilation systems, and smart digital controls and communications technology;
- industries that are large consumers of fuel and power and need to reduce their energy demand and curb the emission of greenhouse gases and pollutants;
- consultancies that advise on the design of energy systems, non-domestic building design and urban masterplans;
- facilities managers, especially those in large organisations such as retail giants, the NHS, and education, that are charged with reducing energy demand and operating costs to meet legally binding and organisational targets;
- standards organisations responsible for regulating the energy and buildings sectors through the creation of design guides and regulatory tools;
- NGOs and charities responsible for promoting, enabling and effecting energy demand reduction schemes;
- health and social care providers, who need to assure thermal comfort and indoor air quality, especially as our population ages and we adopt more flexible healthcare models.

The realisation of these benefits requires people with specific skills and an understanding of the associated ethical, health & safety, regulatory, legal, and social diversity and inclusion issues. Most importantly, they must have the ability to look at problems from a new perspective, to conceive, and develop new ideas, be able to navigate the RD&D pathway, and have the ability to articulate their intentions and to convince others of their worth; the ERBE CDT will develop these capabilities.