Ocean heat waves or frozen seas - Can we make seasonal ocean forecasts?

Project Background:

Seasonal forecasting is at the cutting edge of climate science and is used by many (terrestrial) industries, such as agriculture, the energy sector, and commodity trading. The UK shelf seas support a large diverse ecosystem, and many industries (e.g. fisheries, tourism, offshore operations, and shipping). All of these are affected by weather and climate variability, with impacts above and below the sea surface. This drives an appetite for predictions and projections over a wide range of timescales.

While short-term forecasts and long-term climate projections exist for this region, seasonal forecasts are currently lacking. Recent progress in ocean and atmosphere modelling systems at the Met Office provide the potential for seasonal ocean forecasts to be developed. Seasonal forecasts have proved to be valuable in other regions of the world (e.g. U.S.A., Australia, Payne et al. (2017)). We want to work with you to produce the first seasonal forecasts for the waters around the UK, and begin to exploit the potential of such an exciting system.

Project Aims and Methods:

This project will develop a new seasonal forecasting product for the European Northwest Shelf (NWS). There are various approaches available for designing marine forecasts for this region. These include either use of existing global ocean forecasting systems developed at the Met Office, or "downscaling" these global models to provide more detailed information across the region.

You will help develop the key scientific questions of the PhD with the guidance of the supervisory team, based on their existing expertise and interests. However, initial questions may include:

Can global models predict seasonality across the NWS; are some properties more predictable than others?
What benefits can be gained from downscaling methods; does increased detail mean increased predictability?
What are the mechanisms behind this predictability?

You will be expected to spend at least 3 months, and ideally much more, working on site at Met Office HQ, Exeter, where you will receive hands-on training and experience in running Met Office ocean forecast models. To ensure that your work is at the very cutting-edge, you will have the exciting opportunity to spend extended periods working with and exchanging knowledge with international leaders in this field, including time spent in Dr Mark Payne's group at the National Institute of Aquatic Resources in Denmark.

As the primary marine science advisors to the UK government, Cefas will play an advisory role through this project. Insight will be provided into applications of the project outcomes, from both a science and policy direction.