Seasonal forecasting of the European North-West shelf seas: sources of, limits to and prospects for predictability of the physical marine environment

UK shelf seas support a large diverse ecosystem, and many industries (e.g. fisheries, tourism, offshore operations, and shipping). These are affected by weather and climate variability, with impacts above and below the sea surface. While short-term forecasts and long-term climate projections exist for this region, seasonal forecasts are currently lacking. Recent progress in ocean and atmosphere modelling systems at the Met Office provide the potential for seasonal ocean forecasts to be developed. Seasonal forecasts have proved to be valuable in other regions of the world (e.g. U.S.A., Australia, Payne et al. (2017)). This studentship is producing the first seasonal forecasts for the waters around the UK.