Open Fellowship Application: Providing information on natural disturbance risks to forests to enhance risk management in the forest sector

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences

Abstract

The project will provide scientific evidence on the threat to forests from natural disturbances to support enhanced risk assessment by stakeholders in global forestry. These include forest managers, investors, insurers, forest carbon standards and policy makers. Better information will support the development of policy and practice to increase resilience and reduce forest losses; the creation of better insurance products to protect forest assets; and help safeguard forest investments and the commercial forest timber and carbon sectors through enhanced risk assessment.

Natural disturbance risks to forest include wind, fire, drought, pest and diseases and snow. Davies has been a researcher on four previous knowledge exchange projects. The first two identified academics working in this area and established a network of over 600 contacts across the forest sector. Academic work was promoted to these contacts through a series of briefs, workshops and a website. A gap was identified in the science, for methods to quantify the risks from pest and diseases and drought for the finance audience. This led to two projects, funded under the NERC Pure Associates programme. The first created an innovative new approach to assessing the risk to UK woodlands from pest and diseases. The second further developed this approach and outputs from Forest Research's drought model for UK insurance, forest carbon and forest management purposes. The Fellowship aims to build on these projects, using existing expertise and resources gathered to date, to adapt, translate and promote academic research to this audience.

The main project aims for each natural disturbance are as follows:
Pest and Diseases: DEFRA, FERA, the Forestry Commission, and ConFor are interested in working with Davies to adapt her pest and disease model to assist in decisions on species selection, and assessments of the economic threat from pests and diseases.
Fire: Many NERC-sponsored academics (including Wooster/Thomas (KCL); Balzter (Leicester); McMorrow (Manchester); Mitchard (Edinburgh)) and Morison/Moffat (Forest Research), are developing new techniques to derive long-term fire histories and impact analyses from remotely sensed information and fire weather/danger indices. Support would be provided through tailored workshops to develop collaborations and source funding to apply these techniques at appropriate scale and to meet the requirements of the forest audience.
Wind: Forest Research's ForestGALEs model, being developed with Locatelli and Patenaude (Edinburgh), produces return intervals for winds that damage trees. It focuses on commercial conifers but new functionality supports deciduous trees. A simplified version provides regional scale wind risk forecasts and new functionality is being developed on vulnerability (i.e. the amount of a forest stand damaged). The model has particular use in assessing the wind risk facing forest projects in new locations without long-term loss records. Davies would work to promote the new functionality to an international audience and ensure it meets their information requirements. She would also support the addition of new functionality on snow risk, which requires the development of a collaboration with academics with snow expertise.
Drought: NERC-sponsored academics at Edinburgh (Meir, Grace, Mencuccini, Dexter); Exeter (Rowland) and the Royal Botanic Garden (Pennington) are investigating drought. Davies would adapt their findings on the drought tolerance ranges of tree species to provide species selection advice to forest projects to reduce the risk of future losses. Their work on mortality mechanisms could provide critical information on moisture deficit and temperature thresholds required for to underpin the development of better mortality models for the sector.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description This report relates to progress to date after two years of a three year Knowledge Exchange Fellowship. A number of projects are in progress but two findings of note have been achieved to date:
Firstly: Forest Enterprise Scotland have been working with the Fellow, to look at the relative risk versus return of planting different commercial timber species during the next forest rotation. This project estimated future yields at risk for 20 timber species adjusted for drought risk under the high emissions climate scenario. At present the forest sector in Scotland is dominated by Sitka spruce which has a high yield but is not drought tolerant. Over half of planted timber is currently Sitka spruce. Future climate projections suggest that areas of Scotland will suffer increased drought risk. The analysis identified location-specific alternative species to Sitka spruce that might achieve similar yields under future climates but which are more drought tolerant. This information can help the forest sector reduce risk and increase the resilience of forests and is already informing planting decisions at Forest Enterprise Scotland.

Secondly: a global survey of forest stakeholders showed that whilst there is good information available to the sector on fire and wind risk to forests, suitable information is lacking on pest and disease and drought risks. The survey identified which techniques and approaches are most widely used at present and where gaps exist. In particular information on the probabilities of arrival and impacts of pests and diseases is lacking. Whilst there is good information on current wind and drought risk, there is an absence of information on the probabilities of future storms and limited information on future drought risk.
Exploitation Route The results of the project comparing the yields of key timber species once they are adjusted for drought risk over the next 50 years, is helping Forest Enterprise Scotland answer the question as to what timber species they should plant during the next rotation. FES intend to feed the results into corporate strategy and we intend to deliver the analysis to the wider forest sector to inform private planting decisions. A new pest and disease risk assessment is underway which will also impact on planting decisions and will be reported on upon completion. The survey results helped to identify audiences for knowledge exchange with NERC funded science and also provide feedback to academic researchers as to what information forest stakeholders need. It has also helped set Fellowship priorities.
Sectors Agriculture

Food and Drink

Environment

Financial Services

and Management Consultancy

 
Description This report reflects progress to date after two years of a three year Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, focused on deriving impact from NERC funded work on natural disturbance risks to forests. A number of projects are in progress and this section summarises the main impacts already achieved to date. The main impact in year two follows on from the work which was begun in year 1 with Forest Enterprise Scotland (FES) to investigate the relative risk versus return of planting different commercial timber species during the next forest rotation. The analysis adapted previous NERC funded work using a new methodology - to provide estimates of the potential risk to yields from key commercial timber species in Scotland. An initial analysis had been created last year which has now been updated and refined to compare 20 timber species. The results have been written up as a publication which is due to be submitted to a publication shortly. The results were also presented at the biennial international IUFRO risk working group conference in Barcelona and will be presented at a special water and drought risk conference in Oxford in March 2019. Forest Enterprise Scotland are using the results to inform planting decisions and we intend to role the results out more widely to the private commercial forestry sector in 2019 and also to project partners including the Woodland Trust. The work has also been selected as a NERC Innovation Case Study. Last year a global survey of commercial forest stakeholders had been completed which investigated global perspectives and experience of natural disturbance risks; the use of different approaches to quantify and assess risk; and gaps in knowledge. 72 responses were received, and a summary distributed to participants. A publication has been drafted presenting the results to be submitted to a journal in 2019. The results provide feedback on where new research could fill gaps in knowledge on natural disturbance risks of interest to the commercial forest sector. In particular this highlights a gap in knowledge on drought and pest and disease risks whereas fire and wind are relatively well understood. A new project is underway to use an approach developed during previous NERC funded projects on pest and disease risk (PA 13-021 and NE/M008541/1), to develop an assessment of the pest and disease risk to the forest resource in Scotland for Forestry Commission Scotland. This work is being done in conjunction with Forest Research. The results will inform corporate strategy and will also potentially be distributed to the private sector. Finally, a successful bid was made to host the next biennial conference of the IUFRO risk working group at Edinburgh University in 2020. This will be an opportunity for UK academics to present their work to, and network with, a global audience of forest stakeholders
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal

Economic

Policy & public services

 
Description Impact on forest policy of Forest Enterprise Scotland part of the Forestry Commission
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The options given do not really reflect the outcome. The Fellow has produced analysis comparing 18 different potential commercial timber species in relation to how their future yields or growth rates will be impacted by drought risk. The results are being used by Forest Enterprise Scotland as an input to corporate strategy and policy in relation to which species to plant in the next rotation. The closest match of the options given is training of practitioners, as the results are being used by the head of forest resilience, who is responsible for ensuring sustainability of the National Forest Estate under the threat of climate change.
 
Title Global survey of information requirements on natural disturbance risks to forests across the forest sector 
Description A global survey was conducted to establish perceptions of forest stakeholders in relation to natural disturbance risks to forests such as wind, fire, pest and disease and drought. Over 300 forest stakeholders from a range of sectors were identified and surveyed using contacts from previous projects, a literature review and a snowball technique. Sectors covered by the survey included forest managers; forest timber and carbon project developers; land owners; investors; forest fund managers; insurers/reinsurers; forest insurance brokers; and consultants/advisers. An online survey was developed and sent to these organisations. It asked questions about their perception of natural disturbance risks to global forests, their experience of losses from their own projects; details of how they assessed such risks to their own projects and any information requirements that they might have that they would like NERC to provide. 72 responses were received . 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The survey revealed that whilst fire and wind are major sources of loss, they can easily be insured against, whereas drought and pest and diseases can rarely be insured. Insurance is possible for fire and wind as currently available information is adequate to calculate premiums, whereas it is not generally available for pest and disease and drought riskier to a lack of required information. Insurers are interested in better wind/fire information, but the wider sector is more concerned about better information on pest and diseases and drought precisely because these risks cannot be insured against. A summary of the results is being sent to participants to promote knowledge on risk perceptions and assessment techniques but has also provided input to inform the KE Fellowship. The information will be used to identify and promote relevant UK research to survey participants and also to inform priorities. In particular, the Fellowship will focus on the key areas of pest and disease and drought information. A publication is in development. 
 
Title New method to assess the risk versus return of key commercial timber species by adjusting growth rates for drought risk 
Description The options do not reflect the new method so improvement to research infrastructure was chosen as the closest match. A new method was developed for comparing the risk versus return of commercial timber species by adjusting growth rates according to susceptibility to drought. It developed an approach combining the probability of unsuitable drought conditions for different species and uses this information to adjust expected yields across Scotland. It also provides analysis of yields in locations with different soil moisture conditions. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Forest Enterprise Scotland are using the results to inform corporate strategy on what timber species to plant in the next rotation. The results are being developed into a publication. 
 
Description Consultancy commissioned by Forestry Commission Scotland whether lessons on risk management from the finance sector support forest policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Forestry Commission Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Prior to employment at the University of Edinburgh, the researcher spent 7 years in risk management in investment banking. A Forestry Commission Scotland representative met the researcher at a meeting to discuss uncertainty in planning for risk relating to plant health. FCS were commissioning reports from different sectors to see if lessons from other sectors on how they manage risk, could inform policy on climate change adaptation in Scottish forests. The researcher was commissioned to write a report on how the finance sector measures and manages risk and how this might inform such policy. Whilst the report was primarily focused on finance techniques it was also supplemented with examples of how this might impact on forest policy using the experiences from the NERC funded risk projects. Plus the collaboration was forged following the meeting at which the researcher introduced finance techniques to the discussion on plant health which she was invited to during the case study project.
Collaborator Contribution As above, commissioning the report on how lessons on risk management from the finance sector could support forest policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scottish forestry.
Impact This report was completed in 2015. Dr Tomasso Locatelli and Bruce Nicoll of Forest Research developed a new report from this which takes the original report from 2015 and restructures it adding in further implications for forest policy. Locatelli is the lead author, and Davies - the researcher from this project - now a Knowledge Exchange Fellow contributed to the new report as part of her Fellowship and is the second author. The new report was funded by ClimateXChange and was lpublished in 2018. Link: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2015
 
Description Consultancy commissioned by the Satellite Applications Catapult 
Organisation Satellite Applications Catapult
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Contacts made as part of the Knowledge Exchange Fellowship project, recommended the Fellow, to the Satellite Applications Catapult. As a result, the Catapult commissioned Susan and a colleague to produce a report on the potential market opportunities for carbon monitoring and modelling from space, which including modelling of land use carbon. This report formed part of a series commissioned by the Catapult. Since the Fellowship does not support consultancy, this was done as separately however it included findings from the Fellowship work.
Collaborator Contribution The Satellite Applications Catapult was responsible for defining the consultancy requirements and commissioning the work. They also provided a template for the report structure to ensure that sections were consistent with others in the series.
Impact The Satellite Applications Catapult is using this report, along with the others in the series, to identify where the best opportunities are for UK space companies in order to allocate resources most efficiently to support UK growth in this sector.
Start Year 2017
 
Description New report on Lessons on risk management from the finance sector to inform policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland's forests 
Organisation ClimateXChange
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution When the Fellow was a researcher on NERC project NE/J019720/1 in 2015, she was engaged as a consultant by Forestry Commission Scotland to produce a report on how lessons from the finance sector could influence adaptation to climate change in Scotland's forests. This report was focused on the financial techniques for risk management with some examples of how this might be used in the forest sector. Forest Research developed a new report from this original report with funding from ClimateXChange, which built on the original report and added in further examples and potential application to the forest sector. The Fellow is second author on this report.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Research are leading on the new report and contributing further examples and applications of how the financial risk management techniques outlined in the report might be applied to forestry.
Impact A report was published in 2018 with the Fellow as second author (Susan Davies, University of Edinburgh). This was published jointly with ClimateXChange and Forest Research/Forestry Commission. Details: Title: 'Lessons on risk management from the finance sector for climate change adaptation in Scotland's forestry sector' Authors: Tom Locatelli*, Susan Davies, Bruce Nicoll*, Kate Beauchamp* August, 2018 *Forest Research, University of Edinburgh Link to pdf: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2017
 
Description New report on Lessons on risk management from the finance sector to inform policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland's forests 
Organisation Forest Research
Department Northern Research Station
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution When the Fellow was a researcher on NERC project NE/J019720/1 in 2015, she was engaged as a consultant by Forestry Commission Scotland to produce a report on how lessons from the finance sector could influence adaptation to climate change in Scotland's forests. This report was focused on the financial techniques for risk management with some examples of how this might be used in the forest sector. Forest Research developed a new report from this original report with funding from ClimateXChange, which built on the original report and added in further examples and potential application to the forest sector. The Fellow is second author on this report.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Research are leading on the new report and contributing further examples and applications of how the financial risk management techniques outlined in the report might be applied to forestry.
Impact A report was published in 2018 with the Fellow as second author (Susan Davies, University of Edinburgh). This was published jointly with ClimateXChange and Forest Research/Forestry Commission. Details: Title: 'Lessons on risk management from the finance sector for climate change adaptation in Scotland's forestry sector' Authors: Tom Locatelli*, Susan Davies, Bruce Nicoll*, Kate Beauchamp* August, 2018 *Forest Research, University of Edinburgh Link to pdf: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2017
 
Description Project to compare the growth rates of different commercial timber species adjusted for drought risk to inform corporate strategy within Forest Enterprise Scotland 
Organisation Forest Research
Department Northern Research Station
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Fellow worked with Forest Enterprise Scotland and Forest Research (Northern Research Station) to adapt existing research on the probability of different moisture deficit levels under different climate change projections; drought tolerance of different commercial timber species; and yields (growth rates), in order to produce a risk versus return analysis comparing 20 different timber species. Growth rates of each timber species were adjusted to factor in drought risk according to each species' level of drought tolerance. This resulted in a series of risk-adjusted yield estimates to allow comparison of the likely future yields of different potential commercial timber species in the face of the increasing probability of drought. These comparisons will assist Forest Enterprise Scotland in developing corporate strategy on which species to plant. The results have now been written up into a draft publication to be submitted in 2019.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Enterprise Scotland provided information on key timber species and helped define project outcomes. Forest Research provided information on moisture deficits, yields and drought tolerance.
Impact This work builds on the work of a previous NERC PURE funded project NE/P006477/1 under PI Dr Genevieve Patenaude which was focused on assessing mortality risk to 4 tree species including 2 commercial timber species. In particular this project provided the key moisture deficit data and also the understanding and knowledge which informed the new project. The main outcome will be input into Forest Enterprise Scotland corporate strategy on which tree species should be planted in the next rotation. The results have now been written up into a draft publication to be submitted in 2019. The paper is also to be presented at a conference in Oxford on Water and Drought Scarcity in March 2019.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Project to compare the growth rates of different commercial timber species adjusted for drought risk to inform corporate strategy within Forest Enterprise Scotland 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Forestry Commission Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Fellow worked with Forest Enterprise Scotland and Forest Research (Northern Research Station) to adapt existing research on the probability of different moisture deficit levels under different climate change projections; drought tolerance of different commercial timber species; and yields (growth rates), in order to produce a risk versus return analysis comparing 20 different timber species. Growth rates of each timber species were adjusted to factor in drought risk according to each species' level of drought tolerance. This resulted in a series of risk-adjusted yield estimates to allow comparison of the likely future yields of different potential commercial timber species in the face of the increasing probability of drought. These comparisons will assist Forest Enterprise Scotland in developing corporate strategy on which species to plant. The results have now been written up into a draft publication to be submitted in 2019.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Enterprise Scotland provided information on key timber species and helped define project outcomes. Forest Research provided information on moisture deficits, yields and drought tolerance.
Impact This work builds on the work of a previous NERC PURE funded project NE/P006477/1 under PI Dr Genevieve Patenaude which was focused on assessing mortality risk to 4 tree species including 2 commercial timber species. In particular this project provided the key moisture deficit data and also the understanding and knowledge which informed the new project. The main outcome will be input into Forest Enterprise Scotland corporate strategy on which tree species should be planted in the next rotation. The results have now been written up into a draft publication to be submitted in 2019. The paper is also to be presented at a conference in Oxford on Water and Drought Scarcity in March 2019.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Guest lecture to students on Forests and Environments MSc about risk management and NERC projects on natural disturbance risks to forests 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Fellow was invited as a guest lecturer to present to Masters students on the Forests and Environment MSc at University of Edinburgh about risk management and her work on NERC funded projects in relation to forests and natural disturbance risks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Guest lecture to students on the new Environmental Governance course 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Edinburgh University has just started a new Environmental Governance undergraduate course. I was asked to present to students in relation to my Fellowship, forest risk work and also other work experience related to this topic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Guest lecture to undergraduate students on the Natural Hazards and Risk course 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact The Fellow was invited as a guest lecturer to present to undergraduate students on the Natural Hazards and Risk course. She spoke about techniques and issues in risk management and in using research for risk management purposes using examples from past NERC projects as well as the current Fellowship.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Guest lecture to undergraduate students on the Natural Hazards and Risk course 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact For the second year running I was invited to give a guest lecture to students on the Natural Hazards and Risk course within Geosciences at Edinburgh. I presented issues around risk and risk management using examples from some of the NERC projects I have been involved in.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation and contribution to discussion at Risks to the Forest Resource workshop hosted by Forestry Commission Scotland 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Forestry Commission Scotland is embarking on a new project attempting to quantify the current and future risks to the forest resource in Scotland, primarily from pests and diseases, but also from other climate change factors. This assessment will provide the evidence to inform policy makers and growers, as well as provide support for enhanced risk management of the forest resource. The Fellow was invited to the second workshop on this topic to present an overview of her work, including risk management concepts and techniques, the work from previous NERC funded projects - PA 13-021 and NE/M008541/1 - on assessing pest and disease and drought risk; and also the work to date under the Fellowship to assess the risk versus return of different timber species under drought. Following the event the Fellow was invited to submit a proposal as to how the pest and disease approach might be adapted for this purpose and what this would entail with the potential for engagement on this project during 2018.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation at Biennial IUFRO Risk Working Group conference in Barcelona 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact About 100 specialists in forest risk attend the biennial conferences hosted by the risk working group of the International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO). The audience includes a range of interdisciplinary forest stakeholders including academics, forest managers, forestry practitioners and so forth. I presented the work from my Fellowship on drought and also previous NERC funded work on pests and diseases. At the end of the conference the organisers invited applications for institutions to host the next conference in 2 years time. I followed this up with the new Centre for Sustainable Landscapes and Forests at the University of Edinburgh and led a successful bid to host the next event in 2020. This will help raise awareness of the University's new forest centre and provide an opportunity for academics and forestry practitioners across the United Kingdom to come and present their work and network at this prestigious event.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Wildfire Research Workshop 2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact On account of her expertise gathered from previous NERC projects and the current Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, Susan was invited to participate in the second gathering of a new working group focused on coordinating wildfire research in the UK. The working group was hosted by Rob Gazzard (Forestry Commission) and Julia McMorrow (University of Manchester). The aim of this specific workshop was to define projects that would lead towards the development of a more appropriate Fire Danger Rating System and associated policy in the UK. More generally the working group and workshop also aim to coordinate the development of wildfire related social, economic and environmental research to address policy and practical challenges. Working group participants from the wildfire sector include academics/researchers, policymakers, fire agencies, local/national government, the Forestry Commission and its subisidiaries, and so forth. Around 15 people attended this event at which a range of possible research projects were identified and prioritised. The group gave feedback on each concept and projects were allocated to individuals to define and take forwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Workshop for PhD students that are part of the NERC Doctoral Training Partnership 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Knowledge Exchange Fellow provided training and support to NERC E3 Doctoral Training Partnership funded PhD students. The Fellow found placements for 3 PhD students in a the private sector and Forestry Commission using her contacts.She also hosted and chaired a 1-day workshop, with the theme: risk and resilience, which was used to raise awareness in students of the importance of creating impact from research and issues that arise when applying research. The Fellow presented at this workshop and invited other industry practitioners to provide additional presentations of their experience in using academic research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017