Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Publications
Shen X
(2024)
A Forensic Investigation of Climate Model Biases in Teleconnections: The Case of the Relationship Between ENSO and the Northern Stratospheric Polar Vortex
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Xu P
(2021)
Amplified Waveguide Teleconnections Along the Polar Front Jet Favor Summer Temperature Extremes Over Northern Eurasia
in Geophysical Research Letters
Geen R
(2023)
An Explanation for the Metric Dependence of the Midlatitude Jet-Waviness Change in Response to Polar Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Screen J
(2021)
An ice-free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather?
in Weather
Barton B
(2022)
An Ice-Ocean Model Study of the Mid-2000s Regime Change in the Barents Sea
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Ye K
(2022)
An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia
in Environmental Research Letters
Zhang R
(2022)
Arctic and Pacific Ocean Conditions Were Favorable for Cold Extremes over Eurasia and North America during Winter 2020/21
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Blackport R
(2022)
Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
McCrystall M
(2021)
Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
in Geophysical Research Letters
Cai Z
(2024)
Assessing Arctic wetting: Performances of CMIP6 models and projections of precipitation changes
in Atmospheric Research
Ye K
(2024)
Author Correction: Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Lo Y
(2023)
Changes in Winter Temperature Extremes From Future Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Lo YTE
(2024)
Compound mortality impacts from extreme temperatures and the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Nature communications
Blackport R
(2021)
Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence
in Nature Geoscience
Xu M
(2021)
Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents-Kara Sea-Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Zheng C
(2023)
Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models due to Varying Balance between Dynamic Cooling and Thermodynamic Warming
in Journal of Climate
Zhang R
(2021)
Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality
in Geophysical Research Letters
Delhaye S
(2023)
Dominant role of early winter Barents-Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models
in Climate Dynamics
Ye K
(2024)
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss
in Geophysical Research Letters
Oltmanns M
(2024)
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Ye K
(2023)
European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet
in Geophysical Research Letters
Mudhar R
(2024)
Exploring Mechanisms for Model-Dependency of the Stratospheric Response to Arctic Warming
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Dey D
(2024)
Formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing
in Nature Communications
Cornish SB
(2023)
Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content.
in Climate dynamics
Xu M
(2023)
Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Zhang T
(2022)
Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming
in One Earth
Xu M
(2024)
Influence of Regional Sea Ice Loss on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Blackport R
(2020)
Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves.
in Science advances
Warner J
(2020)
Links Between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Explained by Internal Variability and Tropical Forcing
in Geophysical Research Letters
Blackport R
(2024)
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming
in Science Advances
Screen J
(2022)
Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
in Geophysical Research Letters
McCrystall MR
(2021)
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
in Nature communications
Walsh A
(2022)
Non-Linear Response of the Extratropics to Tropical Climate Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Karpechko A
(2022)
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter-Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Karpechko A
(2024)
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
| Description | Provided greater confidence in climate change projections and in particular, how the rapid Arctic warming can affect weather and climate in lower latitudes. |
| Exploitation Route | Development of new climate models and model experiments. Physical understanding to improve confidence in climate predictions and projections |
| Sectors | Environment |
| Description | Project results have contributed to government reports and other policy-facing documents. Results have been reported in media |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Other |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Title | Lagrangian trajectory dataset for AMOC lower limb |
| Description | These Lagrangian trajectory files were generated by TRACMASS, a Lagrangian parcel tracing algorithm, using data from a high-resolution (1/12o) ocean sea-ice hindcast. Two set of experiments were performed to trace the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) lower limb; 1) Initiated only southward trajectories across the Fram Strait (fs) that corresponds to Arctic outflow and 2) traced only northward trajectories across the easten Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Section which corresponds to Atlantic inflow and associated with the North Atlantic Current (nac). _ini.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the starting location _run.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories during the trajectory simulation _out.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the ending location _rerun.csv = This file is used to select trajectories that have reached a particular ending section. Column 2 in this file contain kill zone flag. Flag 1 means trajectories reaching the surface, 2 indicates trajectories reaching the Fram Strait , 3 means trajectories reaching the eastern SPNA section and finally 4 illustrate trajectories aprroaching the Barents Sea. TRACMASS documentation is available at https://www.tracmass.org/docs.html |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7924420 |
| Title | Lagrangian trajectory dataset for AMOC lower limb |
| Description | These Lagrangian trajectory files were generated by TRACMASS, a Lagrangian parcel tracing algorithm, using data from a high-resolution (1/12o) ocean sea-ice hindcast. Two set of experiments were performed to trace the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) lower limb; 1) Initiated only southward trajectories across the Fram Strait (fs) that corresponds to Arctic outflow and 2) traced only northward trajectories across the easten Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Section which corresponds to Atlantic inflow and associated with the North Atlantic Current (nac). _ini.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the starting location _run.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories during the trajectory simulation _out.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the ending location _rerun.csv = This file is used to select trajectories that have reached a particular ending section. Column 2 in this file contain kill zone flag. Flag 1 means trajectories reaching the surface, 2 indicates trajectories reaching the Fram Strait , 3 means trajectories reaching the eastern SPNA section and finally 4 illustrate trajectories aprroaching the Barents Sea. TRACMASS documentation is available at https://www.tracmass.org/docs.html |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7924419 |