Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Publications
Warner J
(2020)
Links Between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Explained by Internal Variability and Tropical Forcing
in Geophysical Research Letters
Osborne J
(2020)
The North Atlantic as a Driver of Summer Atmospheric Circulation
in Journal of Climate
Blackport R
(2020)
Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves.
in Science advances
Blackport R
(2020)
Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming
in Nature Climate Change
Zhang R
(2021)
Diverse Eurasian Winter Temperature Responses to Barents-Kara Sea Ice Anomalies of Different Magnitudes and Seasonality
in Geophysical Research Letters
Blackport R
(2021)
Observed Statistical Connections Overestimate the Causal Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Changes on Midlatitude Winter Climate
in Journal of Climate
McCrystall M
(2021)
Arctic Winter Temperature Variations Correlated With ENSO Are Dependent on Coincidental Sea Ice Changes
in Geophysical Research Letters
Cornish S
(2021)
Rise and fall of ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories
Blackport R
(2021)
Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence
in Nature Geoscience
McCrystall MR
(2021)
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
in Nature communications
Xu M
(2021)
Distinct Tropospheric and Stratospheric Mechanisms Linking Historical Barents-Kara Sea-Ice Loss and Late Winter Eurasian Temperature Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Xu P
(2021)
Amplified Waveguide Teleconnections Along the Polar Front Jet Favor Summer Temperature Extremes Over Northern Eurasia
in Geophysical Research Letters
Screen J
(2021)
An ice-free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather?
in Weather
Richards A
(2022)
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Arctic From 40 Years of Observations
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Zhang T
(2022)
Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming
in One Earth
Blackport R
(2022)
Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Karpechko A
(2022)
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter-Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Hay S
(2022)
Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change
in Journal of Climate
Zhang R
(2022)
Arctic and Pacific Ocean Conditions Were Favorable for Cold Extremes over Eurasia and North America during Winter 2020/21
in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Ayres H
(2022)
The Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss
in Journal of Climate
Smith D
(2022)
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
in Nature Communications
Screen J
(2022)
Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
in Geophysical Research Letters
Barton B
(2022)
An Ice-Ocean Model Study of the Mid-2000s Regime Change in the Barents Sea
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Cornish SB
(2022)
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories.
in Nature communications
Walsh A
(2022)
Non-Linear Response of the Extratropics to Tropical Climate Variability
in Geophysical Research Letters
Cornish SB
(2023)
Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content.
in Climate dynamics
Zheng C
(2023)
Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models due to Varying Balance between Dynamic Cooling and Thermodynamic Warming
in Journal of Climate
Ye K
(2023)
European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet
in Geophysical Research Letters
Chatterjee S
(2023)
Ocean response to reduced Arctic sea ice in PAMIP simulations.
Xu M
(2023)
Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Delhaye S
(2023)
Dominant role of early winter Barents-Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models
in Climate Dynamics
Geen R
(2023)
An Explanation for the Metric Dependence of the Midlatitude Jet-Waviness Change in Response to Polar Warming
in Geophysical Research Letters
Hay S
(2023)
The Effect of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on Extratropical Cyclones
in Geophysical Research Letters