Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Mathematics
Abstract
The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types".
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.
Publications
Cornish S
(2021)
Rise and fall of ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories
Mudhar R
(2023)
Understanding the Stratospheric Response to Arctic Amplification
Chatterjee S
(2023)
Ocean response to reduced Arctic sea ice in PAMIP simulations.
Oltmanns M
(2024)
European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years
in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Screen J
(2021)
An ice-free Arctic: what could it mean for European weather?
in Weather
Blackport R
(2024)
Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming
in Science Advances
Gong H
(2025)
Teleconnection from Arctic warming suppresses long-term warming in central Eurasia.
in Science advances
Blackport R
(2020)
Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves.
in Science advances
Blackport R
(2022)
Arctic change reduces risk of cold extremes.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Zhang T
(2022)
Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming
in One Earth
Ye K
(2024)
Author Correction: Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Ye K
(2024)
Response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected Arctic sea-ice loss in very large-ensemble climate model simulations
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Xu M
(2023)
Important role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Arctic mid-to-upper tropospheric warming in response to sea-ice loss
in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Blackport R
(2021)
Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence
in Nature Geoscience
Smith D
(2022)
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
in Nature Communications
McCrystall MR
(2021)
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
in Nature communications
Dey D
(2024)
Formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing
in Nature Communications
Lo YTE
(2024)
Compound mortality impacts from extreme temperatures and the COVID-19 pandemic.
in Nature communications
Cornish SB
(2022)
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories.
in Nature communications
Blackport R
(2020)
Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming
in Nature Climate Change
Barton B
(2022)
An Ice-Ocean Model Study of the Mid-2000s Regime Change in the Barents Sea
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Richards A
(2022)
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Arctic From 40 Years of Observations
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Xu M
(2024)
Influence of Regional Sea Ice Loss on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Karpechko A
(2022)
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter-Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Karpechko A
(2024)
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
| Description | Provided greater confidence in climate change projections and in particular, how the rapid Arctic warming can affect weather and climate in lower latitudes. |
| Exploitation Route | Development of new climate models and model experiments. Physical understanding to improve confidence in climate predictions and projections |
| Sectors | Environment |
| Description | Project results have contributed to government reports and other policy-facing documents. Results have been reported in media |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Other |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Title | Lagrangian trajectory dataset for AMOC lower limb |
| Description | These Lagrangian trajectory files were generated by TRACMASS, a Lagrangian parcel tracing algorithm, using data from a high-resolution (1/12o) ocean sea-ice hindcast. Two set of experiments were performed to trace the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) lower limb; 1) Initiated only southward trajectories across the Fram Strait (fs) that corresponds to Arctic outflow and 2) traced only northward trajectories across the easten Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Section which corresponds to Atlantic inflow and associated with the North Atlantic Current (nac). _ini.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the starting location _run.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories during the trajectory simulation _out.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the ending location _rerun.csv = This file is used to select trajectories that have reached a particular ending section. Column 2 in this file contain kill zone flag. Flag 1 means trajectories reaching the surface, 2 indicates trajectories reaching the Fram Strait , 3 means trajectories reaching the eastern SPNA section and finally 4 illustrate trajectories aprroaching the Barents Sea. TRACMASS documentation is available at https://www.tracmass.org/docs.html |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7924420 |
| Title | Lagrangian trajectory dataset for AMOC lower limb |
| Description | These Lagrangian trajectory files were generated by TRACMASS, a Lagrangian parcel tracing algorithm, using data from a high-resolution (1/12o) ocean sea-ice hindcast. Two set of experiments were performed to trace the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) lower limb; 1) Initiated only southward trajectories across the Fram Strait (fs) that corresponds to Arctic outflow and 2) traced only northward trajectories across the easten Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) Section which corresponds to Atlantic inflow and associated with the North Atlantic Current (nac). _ini.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the starting location _run.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories during the trajectory simulation _out.csv = store positions and properties of trajectories at the ending location _rerun.csv = This file is used to select trajectories that have reached a particular ending section. Column 2 in this file contain kill zone flag. Flag 1 means trajectories reaching the surface, 2 indicates trajectories reaching the Fram Strait , 3 means trajectories reaching the eastern SPNA section and finally 4 illustrate trajectories aprroaching the Barents Sea. TRACMASS documentation is available at https://www.tracmass.org/docs.html |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.7924419 |