Multiscale prediction of groundwater response to extreme events
Lead Research Organisation:
CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY
Department Name: School of Water, Energy and Environment
Abstract
Groundwater dynamics are key to minimising ecological, societal and economic impacts of, and driving resilience to, extreme meteorological events (drought or flooding). The temporal dynamics of groundwater behaviour, driven by local weather and recharge patterns, are well understood. However, there are slower, global climate oscillations which have a significant impact on the terrestrial water cycle, and for which there is almost no understanding of either how they (mediated by the role of the unsaturated zone) affect long-term groundwater storage dynamics nor what the consequences may be for predicting the risk of drought. Limited previous work, including between Cranfield and the British Geological Survey, has identified that there are potentially significant temporal relationships between large-scale ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and groundwater levels. Holman et al (2009, 2011) used wavelet techniques to investigate spatio-temporal interactions between large scale ocean-atmosphere teleconnections and groundwater levels in three chalk boreholes with long term records, while Folland et al. (2014) found evidence for potential causal relationships between La Niña episodes and winter rainfall deficits in some major multi-annual groundwater drought episodes in the English lowlands based on two long groundwater level records. This project will seek to expand on this earlier work by combining advanced statistical methods, extensive spatiotemporal (including climatological, meteorological, hydrogeological) datasets and groundwater modelling to further analyse these relationships. This will enable improved prediction and management of groundwater level response to extreme events (particularly droughts), and the knock-on effects on surface water systems and hydroecology. The research will focus on a larger number of boreholes across the UK and more broadly in Europe where long-term groundwater level data are available to understand the differences in sensitivity between different aquifers or climatological areas and hence risk of drought.
Publications
Rust W
(2018)
A conceptual model for climatic teleconnection signal control on groundwater variability in Europe
in Earth-Science Reviews
Rust W
(2021)
Non-stationary control of the NAO on European rainfall and its implications for water resource management
in Hydrological Processes
Rust W
(2019)
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Studentship Projects
Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE/M009009/1 | 05/10/2015 | 31/12/2022 | |||
1654455 | Studentship | NE/M009009/1 | 05/10/2015 | 04/10/2021 | William Rust |
Description | - Discovered that there are 6-8 year cycles that existing in UK rainfall, groundwater and river flow that can have a significant impact on overall hydrological variability. This impacts our ability to predict future droughts and floods and provides a new route for managing water resources and water risk more effectively. -Discovered that the relationship between the NAOI and UK (and European) rainfall is non-stationary over time, which translates into a misalignment of the 7-year cycles in the NAOI and UK hydrological records over time |
Exploitation Route | Used for improving hydrological models, drought forecast techniques and adapting policy to account for multi annual cycles in hydrology. Further research is required to understand why the relationship between NAOI and rainfall is non-stationary and what drives this change in control over time, before this can be used to improve forecasting of hydrological extremes. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Conversations with members of the Environment Agency drought forecasting team as to the best ways to utilize this research in future EA work. |
First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Discussions with the EA |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Title | Rolling correlation between NAOI and European rainfall |
Description | 10-year window rolling correlation between NAOI and GPCC gridded rainfall data for Western Europe. Grid cells between -13-20° Longitude and 35-70° Latitude were used to represent Western Europe. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This dataset demonstrates that the relationship between NAOI and European rainfall is non-stationary over time. |
Title | Wavelet decomposition of NRFA |
Description | Spectral decomposition of entire national river flow archive dataset using the wavelet transform. R script to handle, preprocess and analyse data. |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Code is adaptable for the analysis of any dataset. Any large dataset can be assessed easily for spectral information. |
Description | Collaboration with Atkins |
Organisation | WS Atkins |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | I am involved with Atkins in writing a magazine article following the findings from a paper currently in publication in Hydrology and Earth System Science investigating multi-annual cycles in UK streamflow records. |
Collaborator Contribution | Their contributions are regarding practical implications for the research and showing how water companies currently plan for future water demand in a practical sense. |
Impact | No Outcomes yet but we have been asked by CIWEM magazine The Environment to write a 1500 word article on findings from the in-publication streamflow paper. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Nicholas Howden |
Organisation | University of Bristol |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Identification that Nicholas is working on a similar field regarding signals in baseflow; as such we have decided to collaborate on a couple of papers going forward for increased impact. |
Collaborator Contribution | Bringing his research findings to this project and helping build a more substantial evidence base for the presence of NAO signals in UK hydrology. |
Impact | Nicholas has been a coauthor on a paper currently in publication in Hydrology and Earth System Science on NAO-like periodicities in UK streamflow records. It is not a multi-disciplinary collaboration. |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | EGU 2019 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 20 minute presentation on the presence of NAO-like signals in UK groundwater resources |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation of the findings of NAO-like signals in UK groundwater to an international audience |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |