Exploring the spatial epidemiology and network dynamics of onchocerciasis
Lead Research Organisation:
Imperial College London
Department Name: School of Public Health
Abstract
Onchocerciasis, caused by the vector-borne filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus, has been earmarked for elimination by 2020 according to the World Health Organization's roadmap on neglected tropical diseases. Most dynamic modelling studies seeking to understand the determinants and time horizons to elimination have assumed closed, isolated populations of humans, blackfly vectors and parasites. However (rural) endemic communities are likely to be connected by human and fly movement, work-related seasonal travelling patterns, between-borders migration, and in conflict zones internal population displacement. The extent to which this connectedness between transmission zones and areas with varying histories of control interventions will affect continental elimination efforts remains unknown. This project aims to understand how the transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis vary over time and space and in response to underlying network structure. As global targets approach various definitions of onchocerciasis elimination, this project aims to develop novel mechanistic and inferential models to assess intervention effect sizes, forecasting and counterfactual prediction as well as to help inform programmatically viable definitions of elimination and design of post-elimination surveillance strategies.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
Samir Bhatt (Primary Supervisor) | http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0891-4611 |
Publications
Hamley JID
(2021)
What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?
in Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Unwin H
(2020)
State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
in Nature Communications
Milton P
(2019)
Spatial analysis made easy with linear regression and kernels.
in Epidemics
Milton P
(2020)
Moxidectin: an oral treatment for human onchocerciasis.
in Expert review of anti-infective therapy
Hamley JID
(2019)
Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs.
in PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Walker M
(2020)
Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators.
in Nature communications
Studentship Projects
Project Reference | Relationship | Related To | Start | End | Student Name |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR/N014103/1 | 30/09/2016 | 29/09/2025 | |||
1975164 | Studentship | MR/N014103/1 | 30/09/2017 | 30/07/2021 |