From Models To Decisions (M2D)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Exeter
Department Name: Engineering Computer Science and Maths

Abstract

Today many decisions are made using evidence from numerical models. Such models are often large and complex and often appear to be without uncertainty. However, even if the model is itself deterministic in that it gives the same result for the same set of inputs, the inputs are almost always uncertain and the model structure itself is not fully known. Thus any model result is uncertain. Determining the uncertainties in models is often referred to as uncertainty quantification. This is a hard problem; even for the forward problem where we know the uncertainty in the model inputs and we want to propagate it to the model outputs. Even harder is inverse modelling when (uncertain) observations are used to reduce the uncertainty in the inputs. Once we have done both inverse and forward modelling we can estimate the uncertainty in the model output that is being used to help make the decision. However, in any decision the evidence from the model is rarely the only consideration. The decision maker has his or her own uncertainties and biases and these must be taken into account and understood. Two decision makers given the same evidence will often make different decisions. Presenting the evidence to decision makers (often untrained in mathematics and statistics) is difficult and complex. The network will look at new ways of presenting narratives and visualisations of uncertainty to decision makers.

Planned Impact

The results from the network will help any decision maker who uses evidence from numerical modelling in the decision making process. The list of applications is huge but here are some examples:

1. Engineers use numerical models to make design calculations, saving money on expensive experiments and tests in wind tunnels for example.
2. Climate policy is set using the results of complex numerical models of both the physical and social world, all of which have significant, often unquantified, uncertainties.
3, Personalised medicine is increasingly being practised. By modelling, say, the heart of an individual, a personalised diagnosis and treatment plan can be produced. However it is vital that the clinician making these decisions knows the quality of the model results so they can be balanced with other uncertainties
4. In the financial world many decisions use numerical models, from reinsurance of natural hazards to banking regulation and the use of economic forecasting to set government policy.

All of these examples show that there is a practical requirement for the quantification of uncertainty in the complex models used, a better understanding of how decision makers use such evidence and how the uncertainty is presented to the decision makers, both verbally and visually. The network will address these problems and by including practical decision makers in its ranks will propagate the results

Organisations

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title IOP Physics Communicators Group - IOP Gallery representative 
Description The IOP is building a new head quarters at Kings Cross in London. As part of this we have an IOP Gallery that hosts and promotes artistic investigation of physics. The theme for 2018 is Time. I am the national group representative and we act as a 'critical friend' to help with communication and theme development of the Gallery subjects. 
Type Of Art Artistic/Creative Exhibition 
Year Produced 2017 
Impact I am the group point of contact for this and act as a 'critical friend' for this activity in the IOP. 
 
Title The Art and Craft of Communicating Physics 
Description This is our IOP Physics Communicators annual award ceremony. I am part of the assessment panel for this and we had Helen Czerski as our guest speaker and final panel judge. In this we discussed and shared effective ways to ensure research knowledge is effectively communicated (using artistic and creative channels as well as more traditional ones) so it has a public, local, National and international lasting appeal. 
Type Of Art Creative Writing 
Year Produced 2017 
Impact Sharing of best practice on communicating physics so that it has an effective and lasting policy and public impact. 
 
Description Participation in IOP and RAS joint consulation with REF2021 Town hall
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact This input provided a strong recommendation to reform the strategy of how we assess our research to ensure we align with the contemporary goals. These are to give parity of diversity and opportunity, strong long term investment and to develop and even more engaged interdisciplinary understanding of physics throughout our culture (academic and public).
 
Description Professional National role in Institute of Physics: Physics Communicators Group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact My impact is strategic influence where it is relevant and in line with our National science policy. I take this very seriously as a CPhys, MInstP and FRSS. One of the key needs of our agile research culture is a well connected and interdisciplinary research culture. The UK's science is leading edge and provides leadership internationally. One of my impacts is to use established physical knowledge and while retaining the mathematical rigour of the methods, to communicate this much more widely to the non-mathematical academic community. This is especially important in Earth System Science where it is essential to enhance this agile research culture. I am leading the development of 'Coffee cup science: town hall meetings' as a public and academic engagement activity that helps create our agile research culture. In this committee we are also promoting wider diversity in the National research culture activity and are establishing a 'Price of Physics' summer event to promote inclusive engagement with those who identify as LGBT and those who are supportive of this in the research culture. I am part of the team to deliver this and I help ensure this provides and effective solution to this sensitive area of working culture and policy.
 
Description COST Action "Accelerating Global science In Tsunami HAzard and Risk analysis" (AGITHAR)
Amount € 0 (EUR)
Funding ID CA18109 
Organisation European Union 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 03/2019 
End 02/2023
 
Description M2D (From Models to Decision: Decision Making Under Uncertainty). Potential large tsunami hazards associated with landslide failure along the West coast of India: from uncertainties to planning decisions.
Amount £23,123 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2017 
End 01/2018
 
Description Uncertainty Quantification Of Multi-scale And Multi-physics Computer Models: Applications To Hazard And Climate Models
Amount £480,509 (GBP)
Organisation Alan Turing Institute 
Sector Academic/University
Country Unknown
Start 10/2018 
End 09/2020
 
Title Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Description This is a major novel new method of analysis for climate systems. It will significantly improve all analysis capability in this field. It is a combination of physical dynamical systems theory and statistical likelihood inference. This method (peer assessed and published by JGROceans) is a significant advance of our capability to identify and estimate low amplitude climate dynamic systems that have previously been a challenge to resolve. The method will be helpful for all analyses in Earth System Science. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This has updated our understanding of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism. It accurately resolves the low frequency climate modes. The ENSO mechanism is the dominant planetary climate mode. The impact of this theoretical finding will impact all Earth System climate research. The Lead author has shared this work (now as an independent academic researcher and in his professional national role in the Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators Group)) across three EPSRC climate networks (CliMathNet, RECoVER, Past Earth Network) within three professional bodies the IOP, the Royal Statistical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society. The method is being presented at Ocean Sciences 2018 and now forms the basis for NERC and EPSRC research proposal's being formulated in 2018. 
URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC012892/full
 
Description A behavioural science approach for evaluating communications about climate related risks and uncertainties 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution In the UK, the greatest threats from climate change include heavy rainfall and flooding. According to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, flood damage to UK businesses and communities cost as much as £1 billion per year. Stakeholders from industry and government therefore face important decisions about preparing for future climate change, even if they may not have a background in climate science. Communications and visualisations about climate projections that are designed to inform decisions about climate change adaptation, may be too complex for non- expert audiences (Lorenz et al., 2015; Taylor et al., 2015). We conducted interviews in which end users viewed commonly used climate data visualisations. End users were individuals working at water companies, local councils, environmental charities, media outlets and as infrastructure consultants. Most were professionally responsible for making decisions about climate change and adaptation, and did not necessarily have a background in climate science. We identified variations in interpretations and potential misunderstandings of the presented visualisations. We then sought recommendations from the graph design and risk communication literature that could be implemented to address these potential misunderstandings and improve communications about climate projections to general non-expert audiences.
Impact 1. Grant applications. Already submitted an ESRC proposal entitled "ESRC Centre on Governing Climate Futures" (ES/S012346/1; PI Leah Berrang Ford). Also in the process of arranging a contract from the Met Office for a systematic literature review about recommendations for developing climate communications. Both applications are based on the findings from the pilot study. 2. Publication in a peer reviewed journal - finalising a manuscript to be submitted to the interdisciplinary journal Climatic Change. 3. Presentations at 3 international multi-disciplinary conferences. The PI presented our initial findings to the Risk Quotient 2018 conference at the University of Tokyo (Japan) and at the "(Um)Weltschmerz" conference at the University of Munich's Rachel Carson Centre for the Environment and Society (Germany), both in September 2018. The projects early career researcher presented the projects planned systematic literature review at the workshop Learning on Climate Solutions. Knowledge Synthesis in the Social Sciences for Climate Change Assessments in Berlin (Germany). All three presentations were given in October 2018. Audiences involved about 80% academics and 20% practitioners. 4. Specific recommendations for improving climate data communications to non-expert stakeholder audiences and initial findings and recommendations available on our website (https://tinyurl.com/y8ar9na4). 5. Outreach event at the Met Office. Presenting initial findings and recommendations at a Met Office outreach event on 13 November 2018 (Exeter, UK). Ten practitioners (tasked with developing climate projections and associated communications) were present.
Start Year 2018
 
Description A behavioural science approach for evaluating communications about climate related risks and uncertainties 
Organisation University of Leeds
Department Priestley International Centre for Climate
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution In the UK, the greatest threats from climate change include heavy rainfall and flooding. According to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, flood damage to UK businesses and communities cost as much as £1 billion per year. Stakeholders from industry and government therefore face important decisions about preparing for future climate change, even if they may not have a background in climate science. Communications and visualisations about climate projections that are designed to inform decisions about climate change adaptation, may be too complex for non- expert audiences (Lorenz et al., 2015; Taylor et al., 2015). We conducted interviews in which end users viewed commonly used climate data visualisations. End users were individuals working at water companies, local councils, environmental charities, media outlets and as infrastructure consultants. Most were professionally responsible for making decisions about climate change and adaptation, and did not necessarily have a background in climate science. We identified variations in interpretations and potential misunderstandings of the presented visualisations. We then sought recommendations from the graph design and risk communication literature that could be implemented to address these potential misunderstandings and improve communications about climate projections to general non-expert audiences.
Impact 1. Grant applications. Already submitted an ESRC proposal entitled "ESRC Centre on Governing Climate Futures" (ES/S012346/1; PI Leah Berrang Ford). Also in the process of arranging a contract from the Met Office for a systematic literature review about recommendations for developing climate communications. Both applications are based on the findings from the pilot study. 2. Publication in a peer reviewed journal - finalising a manuscript to be submitted to the interdisciplinary journal Climatic Change. 3. Presentations at 3 international multi-disciplinary conferences. The PI presented our initial findings to the Risk Quotient 2018 conference at the University of Tokyo (Japan) and at the "(Um)Weltschmerz" conference at the University of Munich's Rachel Carson Centre for the Environment and Society (Germany), both in September 2018. The projects early career researcher presented the projects planned systematic literature review at the workshop Learning on Climate Solutions. Knowledge Synthesis in the Social Sciences for Climate Change Assessments in Berlin (Germany). All three presentations were given in October 2018. Audiences involved about 80% academics and 20% practitioners. 4. Specific recommendations for improving climate data communications to non-expert stakeholder audiences and initial findings and recommendations available on our website (https://tinyurl.com/y8ar9na4). 5. Outreach event at the Met Office. Presenting initial findings and recommendations at a Met Office outreach event on 13 November 2018 (Exeter, UK). Ten practitioners (tasked with developing climate projections and associated communications) were present.
Start Year 2018
 
Description A behavioural science approach for evaluating communications about climate related risks and uncertainties 
Organisation University of Leeds
Department School of Business
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution In the UK, the greatest threats from climate change include heavy rainfall and flooding. According to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, flood damage to UK businesses and communities cost as much as £1 billion per year. Stakeholders from industry and government therefore face important decisions about preparing for future climate change, even if they may not have a background in climate science. Communications and visualisations about climate projections that are designed to inform decisions about climate change adaptation, may be too complex for non- expert audiences (Lorenz et al., 2015; Taylor et al., 2015). We conducted interviews in which end users viewed commonly used climate data visualisations. End users were individuals working at water companies, local councils, environmental charities, media outlets and as infrastructure consultants. Most were professionally responsible for making decisions about climate change and adaptation, and did not necessarily have a background in climate science. We identified variations in interpretations and potential misunderstandings of the presented visualisations. We then sought recommendations from the graph design and risk communication literature that could be implemented to address these potential misunderstandings and improve communications about climate projections to general non-expert audiences.
Impact 1. Grant applications. Already submitted an ESRC proposal entitled "ESRC Centre on Governing Climate Futures" (ES/S012346/1; PI Leah Berrang Ford). Also in the process of arranging a contract from the Met Office for a systematic literature review about recommendations for developing climate communications. Both applications are based on the findings from the pilot study. 2. Publication in a peer reviewed journal - finalising a manuscript to be submitted to the interdisciplinary journal Climatic Change. 3. Presentations at 3 international multi-disciplinary conferences. The PI presented our initial findings to the Risk Quotient 2018 conference at the University of Tokyo (Japan) and at the "(Um)Weltschmerz" conference at the University of Munich's Rachel Carson Centre for the Environment and Society (Germany), both in September 2018. The projects early career researcher presented the projects planned systematic literature review at the workshop Learning on Climate Solutions. Knowledge Synthesis in the Social Sciences for Climate Change Assessments in Berlin (Germany). All three presentations were given in October 2018. Audiences involved about 80% academics and 20% practitioners. 4. Specific recommendations for improving climate data communications to non-expert stakeholder audiences and initial findings and recommendations available on our website (https://tinyurl.com/y8ar9na4). 5. Outreach event at the Met Office. Presenting initial findings and recommendations at a Met Office outreach event on 13 November 2018 (Exeter, UK). Ten practitioners (tasked with developing climate projections and associated communications) were present.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Ballet Movement Detection Feasibility for Overuse Injury Modelling within Royal Ballet School Training Programmes 
Organisation Royal Ballet School
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The Royal Ballet School (RBS) aims to nurture, train and educate the exceptional young dancers for the Royal Ballet companies and other leading UK and international companies. Its strong charitable focus on the development and holistic support of young talented dancers includes both pilates, strength and conditioning alongside formal classical ballet training. With the young student dancer's musculoskeletal development and the rigorous training duration and intensity, the risk of serious injuries, particularly of the lower leg, is significant. Sadly, injuries, particularly of the mid-sole, can be career-ending and may also be permanent. The RBS has invested significantly in its Healthy Dancer Programme, providing nutrition, physio, strength and conditioning, and healthcare support to the student dancers and rehabilitation when needed. St Mary's University, Twickenham, is supporting the School by providing analytical support and, in this project, we seek to prototype a sensor system and analysis that allows early detection of overuse injuries in ballet students, within the context of their training. The approach taken is to develop a large dataset that captures the subjects' variability and the method's uncertainties, which is then ultimately used to inform preventative action.
Impact The research team / collaboration have - constructed 18 accelerometer units, - developed and published its embedded software - train coaches at the Royal Ballet School (in their use) In additional in support of further developing the project the team were successful in securing extra funding from St Mary's University in order to write and host open source construction and software details. https://github.com/dancekickrun/DKRZero The project has enabled an additional collaboration as duplicate units are also being tested with international kickboxing coaches. The team are now exploring larger research council funding opportunities and to building wider international collaborations (while waiting for an open call aligned to the UKRI sports and healthcare themes).
Start Year 2018
 
Description Ballet Movement Detection Feasibility for Overuse Injury Modelling within Royal Ballet School Training Programmes 
Organisation St Mary's University, Twickenham
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The Royal Ballet School (RBS) aims to nurture, train and educate the exceptional young dancers for the Royal Ballet companies and other leading UK and international companies. Its strong charitable focus on the development and holistic support of young talented dancers includes both pilates, strength and conditioning alongside formal classical ballet training. With the young student dancer's musculoskeletal development and the rigorous training duration and intensity, the risk of serious injuries, particularly of the lower leg, is significant. Sadly, injuries, particularly of the mid-sole, can be career-ending and may also be permanent. The RBS has invested significantly in its Healthy Dancer Programme, providing nutrition, physio, strength and conditioning, and healthcare support to the student dancers and rehabilitation when needed. St Mary's University, Twickenham, is supporting the School by providing analytical support and, in this project, we seek to prototype a sensor system and analysis that allows early detection of overuse injuries in ballet students, within the context of their training. The approach taken is to develop a large dataset that captures the subjects' variability and the method's uncertainties, which is then ultimately used to inform preventative action.
Impact The research team / collaboration have - constructed 18 accelerometer units, - developed and published its embedded software - train coaches at the Royal Ballet School (in their use) In additional in support of further developing the project the team were successful in securing extra funding from St Mary's University in order to write and host open source construction and software details. https://github.com/dancekickrun/DKRZero The project has enabled an additional collaboration as duplicate units are also being tested with international kickboxing coaches. The team are now exploring larger research council funding opportunities and to building wider international collaborations (while waiting for an open call aligned to the UKRI sports and healthcare themes).
Start Year 2018
 
Description Communication of uncertainties about company's future to capital markets 
Organisation University of Leicester
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network helped develop this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding. Funs were largely used in support of the principal early career researcher (to relieve teaching lad and allow the researcher to exchange with colleagues from the School of Medical, Communications and Sociology, University of Leicester. The project also interacted and collaborated with individuals from industry (the IR society, companies, business communication companies such as Invicomm and the Financial Reporting Lab.
Collaborator Contribution The project concerns a real-life problem of communication and visualization of risks and uncertainties by publicly traded companies to their stakeholders. Failure to communicate principal threats to a business clearly and understandably undermines trust in business and can lead to individual mis- investments as well as misallocation of capital in the economy as a whole. For years, concerns have been raised about the quality of risk and uncertainty information communicated towards professional and amateur investors. Drawing upon interviews and analysis of written documents (e.g. annual reports, transcripts of meetings and conferences with investors etc.), the project researched two closely related issues: the recent practices of uncertainty communication by listed companies and their drawbacks, on the one hand, and the ways to improve this communication, on the other hand.
Impact The major outcomes so far have been presentations on the project's work-in-progress. The researcher gave talks at the MCS research seminar and the M2D (Cambridge) and CRUISSE (London) annual conferences; the abstract for a talk was also accepted for the Financial Reporting and Business Communication annual conference in Bristol (unfortunately, the researcher could not present due to family issues). The journal publication and the large-scale research proposal are in working. The impact of the project can be particularly leveraged through the collaboration with the Financial Reporting Council that is interested in improving the transparency and quality of companies' risk reporting to stakeholders.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Computational and Holistic Social Science for Understanding Conflict 
Organisation Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The M2D Network provided feasibility funding in support of this research collaboration to run for 6 months between January and June 2018.
Collaborator Contribution Government organisations related to defence and security (e.g., UK MoD) encounter pronounced uncertainty when making strategic decisions related to conflict. It is currently challenging for such organisations to make such decisions while fully exploiting the understanding developed by academics working across both (or either of) social and computational science. In response to this problem, this project's focus is on building a model of conflict that can capture the understanding that exists in each of a number of social science disciplines and then performing computations with this model. Indeed, a workshop (associated with the University of Liverpool's EPSRC/ESRC-funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk and Uncertainty) in March 2017 co-organised with Dstl, brought together academics with backgrounds in Engineering, Computer Science, Maths, Psychology, Sociology and Politics. That workshop identified the expertise from a number of social science disciplines could be drawn together to produce a surprisingly simple, yet fully-testable, initial model. The aim of this pilot project is to: broaden the engagement (both in terms of academic disciplines and institutions); identify datasets that can be used to calibrate the model; assess the extent to which this model can be optimised successfully; provide the evidence that motivates a future proposal to test and extend the model, develop a decision support tool using the model and assess this tool in a meaningful way.
Impact The project developed a generative model for conflict that could capture the considerations felt to be important by advocates of each of a number of academic disciplines. This model was developed using the outputs from a workshop that motivated the original application for funding. The model assumes that individuals make rational decisions on the basis of irrationally held beliefs related to the value that they perceive they would derive from engaging in conflict. In a sense, the model is a parameterised agent-based model with agents defined in a way that has been heavily informed by discussion with social scientists drawn from each of multiple disciplines. While the bulk of the work was undertaken by researchers at the University of Liverpool (Dept. Electrical Engineering and Electronics), the research pulled heavily on the following advocates of individual disciplines in, - Psychology, University of Sheffield, - Politics, University of Liverpool, - Engineering, University of Warwick and the Alan Turing Institute, - Dstl
Start Year 2018
 
Description Computational and Holistic Social Science for Understanding Conflict 
Organisation University of Liverpool
Department Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network provided feasibility funding in support of this research collaboration to run for 6 months between January and June 2018.
Collaborator Contribution Government organisations related to defence and security (e.g., UK MoD) encounter pronounced uncertainty when making strategic decisions related to conflict. It is currently challenging for such organisations to make such decisions while fully exploiting the understanding developed by academics working across both (or either of) social and computational science. In response to this problem, this project's focus is on building a model of conflict that can capture the understanding that exists in each of a number of social science disciplines and then performing computations with this model. Indeed, a workshop (associated with the University of Liverpool's EPSRC/ESRC-funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk and Uncertainty) in March 2017 co-organised with Dstl, brought together academics with backgrounds in Engineering, Computer Science, Maths, Psychology, Sociology and Politics. That workshop identified the expertise from a number of social science disciplines could be drawn together to produce a surprisingly simple, yet fully-testable, initial model. The aim of this pilot project is to: broaden the engagement (both in terms of academic disciplines and institutions); identify datasets that can be used to calibrate the model; assess the extent to which this model can be optimised successfully; provide the evidence that motivates a future proposal to test and extend the model, develop a decision support tool using the model and assess this tool in a meaningful way.
Impact The project developed a generative model for conflict that could capture the considerations felt to be important by advocates of each of a number of academic disciplines. This model was developed using the outputs from a workshop that motivated the original application for funding. The model assumes that individuals make rational decisions on the basis of irrationally held beliefs related to the value that they perceive they would derive from engaging in conflict. In a sense, the model is a parameterised agent-based model with agents defined in a way that has been heavily informed by discussion with social scientists drawn from each of multiple disciplines. While the bulk of the work was undertaken by researchers at the University of Liverpool (Dept. Electrical Engineering and Electronics), the research pulled heavily on the following advocates of individual disciplines in, - Psychology, University of Sheffield, - Politics, University of Liverpool, - Engineering, University of Warwick and the Alan Turing Institute, - Dstl
Start Year 2018
 
Description Computational and Holistic Social Science for Understanding Conflict 
Organisation University of Liverpool
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network provided feasibility funding in support of this research collaboration to run for 6 months between January and June 2018.
Collaborator Contribution Government organisations related to defence and security (e.g., UK MoD) encounter pronounced uncertainty when making strategic decisions related to conflict. It is currently challenging for such organisations to make such decisions while fully exploiting the understanding developed by academics working across both (or either of) social and computational science. In response to this problem, this project's focus is on building a model of conflict that can capture the understanding that exists in each of a number of social science disciplines and then performing computations with this model. Indeed, a workshop (associated with the University of Liverpool's EPSRC/ESRC-funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk and Uncertainty) in March 2017 co-organised with Dstl, brought together academics with backgrounds in Engineering, Computer Science, Maths, Psychology, Sociology and Politics. That workshop identified the expertise from a number of social science disciplines could be drawn together to produce a surprisingly simple, yet fully-testable, initial model. The aim of this pilot project is to: broaden the engagement (both in terms of academic disciplines and institutions); identify datasets that can be used to calibrate the model; assess the extent to which this model can be optimised successfully; provide the evidence that motivates a future proposal to test and extend the model, develop a decision support tool using the model and assess this tool in a meaningful way.
Impact The project developed a generative model for conflict that could capture the considerations felt to be important by advocates of each of a number of academic disciplines. This model was developed using the outputs from a workshop that motivated the original application for funding. The model assumes that individuals make rational decisions on the basis of irrationally held beliefs related to the value that they perceive they would derive from engaging in conflict. In a sense, the model is a parameterised agent-based model with agents defined in a way that has been heavily informed by discussion with social scientists drawn from each of multiple disciplines. While the bulk of the work was undertaken by researchers at the University of Liverpool (Dept. Electrical Engineering and Electronics), the research pulled heavily on the following advocates of individual disciplines in, - Psychology, University of Sheffield, - Politics, University of Liverpool, - Engineering, University of Warwick and the Alan Turing Institute, - Dstl
Start Year 2018
 
Description Computational and Holistic Social Science for Understanding Conflict 
Organisation University of Sheffield
Department Department of Psychology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network provided feasibility funding in support of this research collaboration to run for 6 months between January and June 2018.
Collaborator Contribution Government organisations related to defence and security (e.g., UK MoD) encounter pronounced uncertainty when making strategic decisions related to conflict. It is currently challenging for such organisations to make such decisions while fully exploiting the understanding developed by academics working across both (or either of) social and computational science. In response to this problem, this project's focus is on building a model of conflict that can capture the understanding that exists in each of a number of social science disciplines and then performing computations with this model. Indeed, a workshop (associated with the University of Liverpool's EPSRC/ESRC-funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk and Uncertainty) in March 2017 co-organised with Dstl, brought together academics with backgrounds in Engineering, Computer Science, Maths, Psychology, Sociology and Politics. That workshop identified the expertise from a number of social science disciplines could be drawn together to produce a surprisingly simple, yet fully-testable, initial model. The aim of this pilot project is to: broaden the engagement (both in terms of academic disciplines and institutions); identify datasets that can be used to calibrate the model; assess the extent to which this model can be optimised successfully; provide the evidence that motivates a future proposal to test and extend the model, develop a decision support tool using the model and assess this tool in a meaningful way.
Impact The project developed a generative model for conflict that could capture the considerations felt to be important by advocates of each of a number of academic disciplines. This model was developed using the outputs from a workshop that motivated the original application for funding. The model assumes that individuals make rational decisions on the basis of irrationally held beliefs related to the value that they perceive they would derive from engaging in conflict. In a sense, the model is a parameterised agent-based model with agents defined in a way that has been heavily informed by discussion with social scientists drawn from each of multiple disciplines. While the bulk of the work was undertaken by researchers at the University of Liverpool (Dept. Electrical Engineering and Electronics), the research pulled heavily on the following advocates of individual disciplines in, - Psychology, University of Sheffield, - Politics, University of Liverpool, - Engineering, University of Warwick and the Alan Turing Institute, - Dstl
Start Year 2018
 
Description Computational and Holistic Social Science for Understanding Conflict 
Organisation University of Warwick
Department School of Engineering
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network provided feasibility funding in support of this research collaboration to run for 6 months between January and June 2018.
Collaborator Contribution Government organisations related to defence and security (e.g., UK MoD) encounter pronounced uncertainty when making strategic decisions related to conflict. It is currently challenging for such organisations to make such decisions while fully exploiting the understanding developed by academics working across both (or either of) social and computational science. In response to this problem, this project's focus is on building a model of conflict that can capture the understanding that exists in each of a number of social science disciplines and then performing computations with this model. Indeed, a workshop (associated with the University of Liverpool's EPSRC/ESRC-funded Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk and Uncertainty) in March 2017 co-organised with Dstl, brought together academics with backgrounds in Engineering, Computer Science, Maths, Psychology, Sociology and Politics. That workshop identified the expertise from a number of social science disciplines could be drawn together to produce a surprisingly simple, yet fully-testable, initial model. The aim of this pilot project is to: broaden the engagement (both in terms of academic disciplines and institutions); identify datasets that can be used to calibrate the model; assess the extent to which this model can be optimised successfully; provide the evidence that motivates a future proposal to test and extend the model, develop a decision support tool using the model and assess this tool in a meaningful way.
Impact The project developed a generative model for conflict that could capture the considerations felt to be important by advocates of each of a number of academic disciplines. This model was developed using the outputs from a workshop that motivated the original application for funding. The model assumes that individuals make rational decisions on the basis of irrationally held beliefs related to the value that they perceive they would derive from engaging in conflict. In a sense, the model is a parameterised agent-based model with agents defined in a way that has been heavily informed by discussion with social scientists drawn from each of multiple disciplines. While the bulk of the work was undertaken by researchers at the University of Liverpool (Dept. Electrical Engineering and Electronics), the research pulled heavily on the following advocates of individual disciplines in, - Psychology, University of Sheffield, - Politics, University of Liverpool, - Engineering, University of Warwick and the Alan Turing Institute, - Dstl
Start Year 2018
 
Description Determining and facilitating the clearest ways to visualize uncertainty around estimates, time series and curves 
Organisation Office for National Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The M2D Network has supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The team at the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication in Cambridge is working in collaboration with decision-makers in the civil service to determine the best ways for their needs to visualise uncertainty around estimates, time series and curves, and then producing software packages to help create these visualisations easily. Bringing together expertise in psychology, statistics, graphics and software engineering, this project will pilot a process which could then be extended to other end users. The aim is not only to help identify best practice in terms of visualisation for different audiences and types of data, but to then facilitate adoption of these forms of visualisation through producing additions for widely-used commercial visualisation software packages.
Impact The Research team further developed close collobartive links with members of the civil service, journalists and think tank members. Development of Open Source software to produce the different visualisations of uncertainty. The research team is now working towards onwards grant applications and further expanding the collaboration.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Do self-expandable artificial valves offer an advantage over balloon-expandable valves in patients with calcified aortic roots? 
Organisation Morriston Hospital
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Hospitals 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valve-related disease characterised by narrowing of the aortic valve. An increasingly common treatment for AS is the transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) procedure, where an artificial valve is deployed percutaneously through a catheter to replace the diseased valve. Two methods of deployment are commonly available: first, through balloon-expansion of the TAVI device, and second, through utilisation of self-expanding structures that eliminate the need for high balloon pressures. Calcification is a common finding in AS and affects the aortic annulus, leaflets, and the left ventricle outflow tract. Since calcium is significantly stiffer than normal tissue, the geometry of the expanded TAVI device, and hence the functional properties of the artificial valve, depend on both the spatial distribution of calcium and the method of device expansion. The forceful balloon-expansion has been associated with severe complications such as coronary occlusion (by displacement of hard calcium), aortic root injury, and annulus rupture. The clinical question, therefore, is whether self-expandable devices are more suitable in the presence of calcium, and if so what type of spatial calcium distribution can inform on this decision. This project aims to develop a framework to answer this question while accounting for uncertainties in medical images, material properties of calcified tissue, physics-based computer simulations of device deployment, and clinical expectations.
Impact 1. The project has led to long-term and sustainable collaborations between engineers and clinicians across three entities: Swansea University (Engineering & Medicine), University College London, and Morriston Hospital. This consortium is committed to addressing uncertainty quantification not only for the proposed project but also for the wider use of modelling in clinical decision-making. 2. The activities of the project have engaged in world-leading research through addressing an important unanswered clinical question by utilisation of novel engineering approaches. The approach, which accounts for uncertainty, is an emerging area in the biomedical engineering community, where uncertainty is ubiquitous and yet decisions must be made in a timely manner. 3. The project's aim and activities are geared towards clinical decision-making which, if successful, will lead to better provision of healthcare in the UK, resulting in both social and economic impact. 4. This consortium, with the pilot data and methods partly in place, will approach Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (specific call for 'Healthcare Technologies') and the British Heart Foundation (specific category of 'Project grants') for further development of the project.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Do self-expandable artificial valves offer an advantage over balloon-expandable valves in patients with calcified aortic roots? 
Organisation Swansea University
Department College of Engineering
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valve-related disease characterised by narrowing of the aortic valve. An increasingly common treatment for AS is the transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) procedure, where an artificial valve is deployed percutaneously through a catheter to replace the diseased valve. Two methods of deployment are commonly available: first, through balloon-expansion of the TAVI device, and second, through utilisation of self-expanding structures that eliminate the need for high balloon pressures. Calcification is a common finding in AS and affects the aortic annulus, leaflets, and the left ventricle outflow tract. Since calcium is significantly stiffer than normal tissue, the geometry of the expanded TAVI device, and hence the functional properties of the artificial valve, depend on both the spatial distribution of calcium and the method of device expansion. The forceful balloon-expansion has been associated with severe complications such as coronary occlusion (by displacement of hard calcium), aortic root injury, and annulus rupture. The clinical question, therefore, is whether self-expandable devices are more suitable in the presence of calcium, and if so what type of spatial calcium distribution can inform on this decision. This project aims to develop a framework to answer this question while accounting for uncertainties in medical images, material properties of calcified tissue, physics-based computer simulations of device deployment, and clinical expectations.
Impact 1. The project has led to long-term and sustainable collaborations between engineers and clinicians across three entities: Swansea University (Engineering & Medicine), University College London, and Morriston Hospital. This consortium is committed to addressing uncertainty quantification not only for the proposed project but also for the wider use of modelling in clinical decision-making. 2. The activities of the project have engaged in world-leading research through addressing an important unanswered clinical question by utilisation of novel engineering approaches. The approach, which accounts for uncertainty, is an emerging area in the biomedical engineering community, where uncertainty is ubiquitous and yet decisions must be made in a timely manner. 3. The project's aim and activities are geared towards clinical decision-making which, if successful, will lead to better provision of healthcare in the UK, resulting in both social and economic impact. 4. This consortium, with the pilot data and methods partly in place, will approach Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (specific call for 'Healthcare Technologies') and the British Heart Foundation (specific category of 'Project grants') for further development of the project.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Do self-expandable artificial valves offer an advantage over balloon-expandable valves in patients with calcified aortic roots? 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valve-related disease characterised by narrowing of the aortic valve. An increasingly common treatment for AS is the transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) procedure, where an artificial valve is deployed percutaneously through a catheter to replace the diseased valve. Two methods of deployment are commonly available: first, through balloon-expansion of the TAVI device, and second, through utilisation of self-expanding structures that eliminate the need for high balloon pressures. Calcification is a common finding in AS and affects the aortic annulus, leaflets, and the left ventricle outflow tract. Since calcium is significantly stiffer than normal tissue, the geometry of the expanded TAVI device, and hence the functional properties of the artificial valve, depend on both the spatial distribution of calcium and the method of device expansion. The forceful balloon-expansion has been associated with severe complications such as coronary occlusion (by displacement of hard calcium), aortic root injury, and annulus rupture. The clinical question, therefore, is whether self-expandable devices are more suitable in the presence of calcium, and if so what type of spatial calcium distribution can inform on this decision. This project aims to develop a framework to answer this question while accounting for uncertainties in medical images, material properties of calcified tissue, physics-based computer simulations of device deployment, and clinical expectations.
Impact 1. The project has led to long-term and sustainable collaborations between engineers and clinicians across three entities: Swansea University (Engineering & Medicine), University College London, and Morriston Hospital. This consortium is committed to addressing uncertainty quantification not only for the proposed project but also for the wider use of modelling in clinical decision-making. 2. The activities of the project have engaged in world-leading research through addressing an important unanswered clinical question by utilisation of novel engineering approaches. The approach, which accounts for uncertainty, is an emerging area in the biomedical engineering community, where uncertainty is ubiquitous and yet decisions must be made in a timely manner. 3. The project's aim and activities are geared towards clinical decision-making which, if successful, will lead to better provision of healthcare in the UK, resulting in both social and economic impact. 4. This consortium, with the pilot data and methods partly in place, will approach Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (specific call for 'Healthcare Technologies') and the British Heart Foundation (specific category of 'Project grants') for further development of the project.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation Beijing Normal University
Country China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation Lancaster University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation University of Cape Town
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation University of Dakar
Country Senegal 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Enhancing Earth System Decision Making with Dominant Frequency State Analysis 
Organisation University of Ioannina
Country Greece 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team / collaboration were responsible for a) establishing the sDFSA method and tool development using R and Python. This gives portability. b) Writing and submitting a NERC SHEAR proposal ACACIAS: (£250K) together with academic and end user partners in the Sahel region. The ACACIAS proposal was ranked as 7 by the review panel and whilst it was not funded, the feedback is it's internationally competitive, was very positive and re- submission based on that is being considered. c) Conference presentations: M2D Conference (INI, Cambridge), RMets 2018 (York) and ClimathNet 2018 (Reading). d) Research collaboration on the use of DFSA and the physics of resonance in Earth system science, e) Manuscript writing, f) public engagement including with Institute of Physics (Physics Communicators, Women in Physics, including REF2020 strategy town hall input, IOP Early Career Awards), UK Landscapes scoping workshop.
Impact This research has supported the development and progress of 6 publications. Active engagement, research dissemination and networking across several UK events.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Managing Uncertainties in Modelling Air Pollution (MU-MAP) 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council
Department Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution This project developed methodology to quantify, reduce and communicate uncertainties associated with outputs from small process-based models used in environmental decision-making. Our test model was the 'Concentration Based Estimated Deposition' (CBED) model which predicts deposition of atmospheric pollutants. CBED was developed by CEH, and its outputs are part of the information that is used by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) to decide about planning applications. SEPA were discussion partners in the project, and expressed interest in how uncertainty quantification (UQ) could be included in their decision making process.
Impact The project led to the development of an interactive uncertainty visualising tool in R for spatially mapping the UQ in process-based models. As a result of the MU-MAP project, and based on discussions within CEH and SEPA, the collaboration are preparing a funding application for follow-up work. The MU-MAP project revealed the need for improved sources of calibration data and for a more efficient BC algorithm allowing larger areas to be calibrated at high spatial resolution.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Managing Uncertainties in Modelling Air Pollution (MU-MAP) 
Organisation Scottish Environment Protection Agency
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution This project developed methodology to quantify, reduce and communicate uncertainties associated with outputs from small process-based models used in environmental decision-making. Our test model was the 'Concentration Based Estimated Deposition' (CBED) model which predicts deposition of atmospheric pollutants. CBED was developed by CEH, and its outputs are part of the information that is used by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) to decide about planning applications. SEPA were discussion partners in the project, and expressed interest in how uncertainty quantification (UQ) could be included in their decision making process.
Impact The project led to the development of an interactive uncertainty visualising tool in R for spatially mapping the UQ in process-based models. As a result of the MU-MAP project, and based on discussions within CEH and SEPA, the collaboration are preparing a funding application for follow-up work. The MU-MAP project revealed the need for improved sources of calibration data and for a more efficient BC algorithm allowing larger areas to be calibrated at high spatial resolution.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Mathematical Modelling of Sleep Behaviour as an Indicator of Avian Welfare 
Organisation Royal Veterinary College (RVC)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Over 65 billion chickens are reared worldwide each year, and the welfare of these birds is a matter of great concern for EU citizens. One little-understood factor affecting hen welfare is sleep. If the link between sleep and welfare were better understood, this knowledge could be incorporated into the auditing procedures carried out by consumer assurance schemes such as RSPCA Assured (previously Freedom Food), and AssureWel. These schemes enable producers and consumers to make better decisions with regards to animal welfare. Sleep patterns in mammals have been described and modelled mathematically, and have been examined as an indicator of welfare. Sleep patterns in birds have not been described or modelled mathematically, and provide a fascinating challenge. There is uncertainty around the drivers of sleep-wake regulation in birds and understanding these processes remains an open challenge. By beginning to address this challenge, with an interdisciplinary approach at its core, this project has brought mathematical modelling into a new area of veterinary sciences. The overarching aim of this project was to develop a data-informed, mathematical approach to define and model sleep processes in birds, specifically commercially farmed laying hen chicks, under different on-farm rearing conditions.
Impact This project has enabled the principal early career researcher to make connections between researchers who were previously unaware of each other's fields. This has generated many interesting conversations, and a lot of unanswered questions. The team plan to follow up this work through various mechanisms over the coming years. This project has been an exercise in truly interdisciplinary research, in an area as-of-yet unexplored, but of great potential interest to industry and the public. By bringing together word- leading academics in mathematics and veterinary sciences, to collaborate on such novel research, the team have produced a high quality pilot study worthy of publication (Proceedings of the Royal Society, Section B, Biological Sciences). This project has supported the early career researcher in further developing her career. On the back of this project the early career researcher put forward an application to the University of Bath Prize Fellowship in January 2018, to focus on interdisciplinary, mathematical challenges in modelling systems that have a cyclic or periodic component. She was shortlisted for two rounds of interviews and narrowly missed out on securing the position. It is expected that the results of this project, and the subsequent publication of this work will further strengthen her track record in this area and will enable a strengthened UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship proposal in 2019. Furthermore, it provided her with the opportunity to develop her student supervision skills through the aligned summer research internship. Of which the student has benefited greatly from this experience and plans to pursue a career in research. Given the increasing awareness and interest of the public in animal welfare, and our engagement with consumer assurance schemes, I think that both public outreach stories and socio-economic impact will be achieved with the continuation of this work.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Mathematical Modelling of Sleep Behaviour as an Indicator of Avian Welfare 
Organisation University of Bath
Department Department of Mathematical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Over 65 billion chickens are reared worldwide each year, and the welfare of these birds is a matter of great concern for EU citizens. One little-understood factor affecting hen welfare is sleep. If the link between sleep and welfare were better understood, this knowledge could be incorporated into the auditing procedures carried out by consumer assurance schemes such as RSPCA Assured (previously Freedom Food), and AssureWel. These schemes enable producers and consumers to make better decisions with regards to animal welfare. Sleep patterns in mammals have been described and modelled mathematically, and have been examined as an indicator of welfare. Sleep patterns in birds have not been described or modelled mathematically, and provide a fascinating challenge. There is uncertainty around the drivers of sleep-wake regulation in birds and understanding these processes remains an open challenge. By beginning to address this challenge, with an interdisciplinary approach at its core, this project has brought mathematical modelling into a new area of veterinary sciences. The overarching aim of this project was to develop a data-informed, mathematical approach to define and model sleep processes in birds, specifically commercially farmed laying hen chicks, under different on-farm rearing conditions.
Impact This project has enabled the principal early career researcher to make connections between researchers who were previously unaware of each other's fields. This has generated many interesting conversations, and a lot of unanswered questions. The team plan to follow up this work through various mechanisms over the coming years. This project has been an exercise in truly interdisciplinary research, in an area as-of-yet unexplored, but of great potential interest to industry and the public. By bringing together word- leading academics in mathematics and veterinary sciences, to collaborate on such novel research, the team have produced a high quality pilot study worthy of publication (Proceedings of the Royal Society, Section B, Biological Sciences). This project has supported the early career researcher in further developing her career. On the back of this project the early career researcher put forward an application to the University of Bath Prize Fellowship in January 2018, to focus on interdisciplinary, mathematical challenges in modelling systems that have a cyclic or periodic component. She was shortlisted for two rounds of interviews and narrowly missed out on securing the position. It is expected that the results of this project, and the subsequent publication of this work will further strengthen her track record in this area and will enable a strengthened UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship proposal in 2019. Furthermore, it provided her with the opportunity to develop her student supervision skills through the aligned summer research internship. Of which the student has benefited greatly from this experience and plans to pursue a career in research. Given the increasing awareness and interest of the public in animal welfare, and our engagement with consumer assurance schemes, I think that both public outreach stories and socio-economic impact will be achieved with the continuation of this work.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Mathematical Modelling of Sleep Behaviour as an Indicator of Avian Welfare 
Organisation University of Bristol
Department Faculty of Medical and Veterinary Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Over 65 billion chickens are reared worldwide each year, and the welfare of these birds is a matter of great concern for EU citizens. One little-understood factor affecting hen welfare is sleep. If the link between sleep and welfare were better understood, this knowledge could be incorporated into the auditing procedures carried out by consumer assurance schemes such as RSPCA Assured (previously Freedom Food), and AssureWel. These schemes enable producers and consumers to make better decisions with regards to animal welfare. Sleep patterns in mammals have been described and modelled mathematically, and have been examined as an indicator of welfare. Sleep patterns in birds have not been described or modelled mathematically, and provide a fascinating challenge. There is uncertainty around the drivers of sleep-wake regulation in birds and understanding these processes remains an open challenge. By beginning to address this challenge, with an interdisciplinary approach at its core, this project has brought mathematical modelling into a new area of veterinary sciences. The overarching aim of this project was to develop a data-informed, mathematical approach to define and model sleep processes in birds, specifically commercially farmed laying hen chicks, under different on-farm rearing conditions.
Impact This project has enabled the principal early career researcher to make connections between researchers who were previously unaware of each other's fields. This has generated many interesting conversations, and a lot of unanswered questions. The team plan to follow up this work through various mechanisms over the coming years. This project has been an exercise in truly interdisciplinary research, in an area as-of-yet unexplored, but of great potential interest to industry and the public. By bringing together word- leading academics in mathematics and veterinary sciences, to collaborate on such novel research, the team have produced a high quality pilot study worthy of publication (Proceedings of the Royal Society, Section B, Biological Sciences). This project has supported the early career researcher in further developing her career. On the back of this project the early career researcher put forward an application to the University of Bath Prize Fellowship in January 2018, to focus on interdisciplinary, mathematical challenges in modelling systems that have a cyclic or periodic component. She was shortlisted for two rounds of interviews and narrowly missed out on securing the position. It is expected that the results of this project, and the subsequent publication of this work will further strengthen her track record in this area and will enable a strengthened UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship proposal in 2019. Furthermore, it provided her with the opportunity to develop her student supervision skills through the aligned summer research internship. Of which the student has benefited greatly from this experience and plans to pursue a career in research. Given the increasing awareness and interest of the public in animal welfare, and our engagement with consumer assurance schemes, I think that both public outreach stories and socio-economic impact will be achieved with the continuation of this work.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Mathematical Modelling of Sleep Behaviour as an Indicator of Avian Welfare 
Organisation University of Surrey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution Over 65 billion chickens are reared worldwide each year, and the welfare of these birds is a matter of great concern for EU citizens. One little-understood factor affecting hen welfare is sleep. If the link between sleep and welfare were better understood, this knowledge could be incorporated into the auditing procedures carried out by consumer assurance schemes such as RSPCA Assured (previously Freedom Food), and AssureWel. These schemes enable producers and consumers to make better decisions with regards to animal welfare. Sleep patterns in mammals have been described and modelled mathematically, and have been examined as an indicator of welfare. Sleep patterns in birds have not been described or modelled mathematically, and provide a fascinating challenge. There is uncertainty around the drivers of sleep-wake regulation in birds and understanding these processes remains an open challenge. By beginning to address this challenge, with an interdisciplinary approach at its core, this project has brought mathematical modelling into a new area of veterinary sciences. The overarching aim of this project was to develop a data-informed, mathematical approach to define and model sleep processes in birds, specifically commercially farmed laying hen chicks, under different on-farm rearing conditions.
Impact This project has enabled the principal early career researcher to make connections between researchers who were previously unaware of each other's fields. This has generated many interesting conversations, and a lot of unanswered questions. The team plan to follow up this work through various mechanisms over the coming years. This project has been an exercise in truly interdisciplinary research, in an area as-of-yet unexplored, but of great potential interest to industry and the public. By bringing together word- leading academics in mathematics and veterinary sciences, to collaborate on such novel research, the team have produced a high quality pilot study worthy of publication (Proceedings of the Royal Society, Section B, Biological Sciences). This project has supported the early career researcher in further developing her career. On the back of this project the early career researcher put forward an application to the University of Bath Prize Fellowship in January 2018, to focus on interdisciplinary, mathematical challenges in modelling systems that have a cyclic or periodic component. She was shortlisted for two rounds of interviews and narrowly missed out on securing the position. It is expected that the results of this project, and the subsequent publication of this work will further strengthen her track record in this area and will enable a strengthened UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship proposal in 2019. Furthermore, it provided her with the opportunity to develop her student supervision skills through the aligned summer research internship. Of which the student has benefited greatly from this experience and plans to pursue a career in research. Given the increasing awareness and interest of the public in animal welfare, and our engagement with consumer assurance schemes, I think that both public outreach stories and socio-economic impact will be achieved with the continuation of this work.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation Alan Turing Institute
Country Unknown 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation British Geological Survey
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council
Department Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation Newcastle University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Overcoming Uncertainty in Legacy Engineering Resilience Modelling for Flood Hazards 
Organisation University of Bath
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported the development of this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The pilot project funds were used primarily to enable travel to the case study site of Clerkington Weir, to undertake data collection and site survey, and to access archive material on the historic structures held in various locations around the UK. These activities have yielded data that has fed directly into the assessment process. The second use of expenditure was to carry out stakeholder meetings in relation to the case study, including with the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) and asset owners. These activities have fed directly into understanding the context of the decision making around the case study and underpin future plans to fund further study in relation to this type of case study asset (historic hydraulic structure) in the UK. The third use of expenditure was to facilitate collaboration between researchers on the project, with meetings at the Alan Turing Institute and the University of Bath.
Impact - The production of a stakeholder decision-making map, constructed through direct engagement with SEPA. - The identification of key decisions surrounding the management of historic river weirs. - The production of a graphical model to assist in decision-making, derived from fundamental mechanics, linked to the decisions identified, and fed with data sourced in relation to a single case study. These outputs have progressed understanding about both the decision-making context in which the river weir sits, including the complexity of it, and how this is derived from multi-stakeholder priorities, and about the mechanisms by which historic weirs need to be represented in order to enable probabilistic assessment of their stability. These outcomes will be prepared for a pair of publications, one paper focussing on the interplay between engineering assessment and decision-making, and the other focussing on the quantification of uncertainty in complex engineering systems. Both papers are currently being prepared and our aim is to have these submitted in Autumn 2019. The work has involved 2 academic researchers from statistics and engineering (the co-PIs), 3 geoscientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS), 2 separate archive repositories and 2 key stakeholders (an asset owner and SEPA). In addition, meetings were held with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) and with researchers at Bath and Newcastle Universities.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Potential large tsunami hazards associated with landslide failure along the West coast of India: from uncertainties to planning decisions 
Organisation Brunel University London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution TheM2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding. These funds were used predominantly in support of salary costs for the Research Associate who steered the project.
Collaborator Contribution India is planning several industrial and urban development on its Western coast. Hence it is important to take into consideration possible hazards threatening populations and infrastructure. Submarine landslide failure is potentially a source of tsunamis for the region, as evidence of past events have shown; a major source for such failures is the Indus Canyon. The potential hazards associated with the failure of the Indus Canyon slopes have yet to be addressed. In this study, we propose to study such tsunami hazards using a documented geophysical understanding of the source, advanced numerical modeling and novel statistical emulation. The results will be specifically tailored to help our partners in India now advising policy makers on coastal development and settlement. Indeed, the current work on urban planning and decision-making for earthquake-generated tsunamis in our NERC-ESRC-AHRC GCRF grant will be a conduit for the investigation of the links between policy and practice to tsunami hazard (and risk) mapping for India, especially for this new type of low probability and possibly high impact events.
Impact The project led to additional funding for the continuation of research and decision-making in this field. The ongoing research promotes innovative methods used for uncertainty quantification of realistic events, with a focus on high socio-economic impact. This work was presented at a major conference for Geosciences and received positive feedback, and will lead to a publication in a high impact journal. Meetings in December 2017 in India with the City of Navi Mumbai & UNDP, and with the re-insurer XL Catlin India (CEO and Chief Underwriter), allowed the identification and development of steps towards better decisions on tsunami risk for India. This is continuing now under the EPSRC IAA funding until 2019, and possibly in the future with other sources (e.g. Royal Society international collaboration award submitted in 2018 with IISc-Bangalore on mitigation of tsunamis for India).
Start Year 2017
 
Description Potential large tsunami hazards associated with landslide failure along the West coast of India: from uncertainties to planning decisions 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution TheM2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding. These funds were used predominantly in support of salary costs for the Research Associate who steered the project.
Collaborator Contribution India is planning several industrial and urban development on its Western coast. Hence it is important to take into consideration possible hazards threatening populations and infrastructure. Submarine landslide failure is potentially a source of tsunamis for the region, as evidence of past events have shown; a major source for such failures is the Indus Canyon. The potential hazards associated with the failure of the Indus Canyon slopes have yet to be addressed. In this study, we propose to study such tsunami hazards using a documented geophysical understanding of the source, advanced numerical modeling and novel statistical emulation. The results will be specifically tailored to help our partners in India now advising policy makers on coastal development and settlement. Indeed, the current work on urban planning and decision-making for earthquake-generated tsunamis in our NERC-ESRC-AHRC GCRF grant will be a conduit for the investigation of the links between policy and practice to tsunami hazard (and risk) mapping for India, especially for this new type of low probability and possibly high impact events.
Impact The project led to additional funding for the continuation of research and decision-making in this field. The ongoing research promotes innovative methods used for uncertainty quantification of realistic events, with a focus on high socio-economic impact. This work was presented at a major conference for Geosciences and received positive feedback, and will lead to a publication in a high impact journal. Meetings in December 2017 in India with the City of Navi Mumbai & UNDP, and with the re-insurer XL Catlin India (CEO and Chief Underwriter), allowed the identification and development of steps towards better decisions on tsunami risk for India. This is continuing now under the EPSRC IAA funding until 2019, and possibly in the future with other sources (e.g. Royal Society international collaboration award submitted in 2018 with IISc-Bangalore on mitigation of tsunamis for India).
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Institute of Physics (IOP)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Learned Society 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Lancaster University
Department Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation Lancaster University
Department Lancaster Environment Centre
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Exeter
Department College of Life and Environmental Sciences
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The Physics of the Climate 
Organisation University of Ioannina
Department Department of Physics
Country Greece 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution There is a clearly stated need to better understand the Physical mechanisms and drivers of the climate. Dr Bruun has intiated the above collaborations with inter-disciplinary colleagues across the topics od physics, geography and mathematics. Novel ways to better understand the earth system are being developed (manuscript writing) that engage with physics knowledge from other areas of science. The questions in the ReCICLE project help to frame the type of analysis accuracy that is required for assessments of coastal and shelf-sea locations.
Collaborator Contribution The partners represent world leading researchers in their fields. Exeter: Climate dynamics, observational geography, fluid dynamics, mathematics and statistics. Lancaster: Non-linear dynamical systems, identification methods and signal analysis capability. Greece: Theoretical physics. Together this collective are building a strong and informed group of academics who are helping to inform our contemporary understanding of the Physics of the Climate.
Impact 3 Journal publications (JGROceans x2 and J of Plankton Research). Multidisciplinary (Physics, biology, mathematics). 7 Conference presentations (6 oral, 1 poster): EVAN 2017, CliMathnet (2017, 2018), AGU Ocean Sciences 2018, EGU (2018, 2019 x2 ). Multidisciplinary: Physics, statistics, mathematics, communication, education and outreach.
Start Year 2017
 
Description The spread of bacterial infections in children's wards: A pilot study with Alder Hey children's hospital, Liverpool. 
Organisation Alder Hey Children's Hospital
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team performed a review of the modelling literature on infection spread within hospital wards. During this, the team also identified a promising strategy based on MCMC methods by researchers at the University of Nottingham. One of the authors was invited to give a talk on 11th April 2018 at Liverpool, forming a possible future collaborator for an element of a grant proposal. The ultimate aim of the project was to be able assimilate noisy data from proximity sensors and bacterial swabs around a ward at Alder Hey Children's hospital to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of infection spread. This will enable improved decision making strategies on infection control. Early in the project, the team, with the assistance of Alder Hey sketched an outline and identified potential locations for placing proximity sensors within the ward. In addition, extensive tests outside of the hospital were made using / testing the proximity sensors (motes) that were planned for use. In doing this, it was found that these sensors were not particularly accurate in cataloguing contacts when many are used at the same time. Despite attempts to re-coding them, it was decided that better sensors could be constructed. It was also observed that sensors that were available off the shelf were very expensive and with limited capacity to be tailored to needs. As a result, the research team, teamed up with Sensor City in Liverpool (http://www.sensorcity.co.uk/) with a view to designing a bespoke system which would be ideally suited for use in hospital environments. To do this, an additional £11,089 of internal EPSRC- funded impact acceleration money was acquired. This money is enabling the team to continue to develop bespoke purpose suited sensors and continue the efforts of the research collaboration as a whole.
Impact - Developed a compelling set of ideas, challenges and pilot data that will underpin a strong grant proposal. - Utilising an additional £12K matched core funds from the University of Liverpool in addition to the IAA funding - Now working towards a larger grant proposal (EPSRC healthcare technologies theme https://epsrc.ukri.org/funding/calls/htinvestigatorledresearchprojects/).
Start Year 2017
 
Description The spread of bacterial infections in children's wards: A pilot study with Alder Hey children's hospital, Liverpool. 
Organisation Lancaster University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team performed a review of the modelling literature on infection spread within hospital wards. During this, the team also identified a promising strategy based on MCMC methods by researchers at the University of Nottingham. One of the authors was invited to give a talk on 11th April 2018 at Liverpool, forming a possible future collaborator for an element of a grant proposal. The ultimate aim of the project was to be able assimilate noisy data from proximity sensors and bacterial swabs around a ward at Alder Hey Children's hospital to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of infection spread. This will enable improved decision making strategies on infection control. Early in the project, the team, with the assistance of Alder Hey sketched an outline and identified potential locations for placing proximity sensors within the ward. In addition, extensive tests outside of the hospital were made using / testing the proximity sensors (motes) that were planned for use. In doing this, it was found that these sensors were not particularly accurate in cataloguing contacts when many are used at the same time. Despite attempts to re-coding them, it was decided that better sensors could be constructed. It was also observed that sensors that were available off the shelf were very expensive and with limited capacity to be tailored to needs. As a result, the research team, teamed up with Sensor City in Liverpool (http://www.sensorcity.co.uk/) with a view to designing a bespoke system which would be ideally suited for use in hospital environments. To do this, an additional £11,089 of internal EPSRC- funded impact acceleration money was acquired. This money is enabling the team to continue to develop bespoke purpose suited sensors and continue the efforts of the research collaboration as a whole.
Impact - Developed a compelling set of ideas, challenges and pilot data that will underpin a strong grant proposal. - Utilising an additional £12K matched core funds from the University of Liverpool in addition to the IAA funding - Now working towards a larger grant proposal (EPSRC healthcare technologies theme https://epsrc.ukri.org/funding/calls/htinvestigatorledresearchprojects/).
Start Year 2017
 
Description The spread of bacterial infections in children's wards: A pilot study with Alder Hey children's hospital, Liverpool. 
Organisation Sensor City
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team performed a review of the modelling literature on infection spread within hospital wards. During this, the team also identified a promising strategy based on MCMC methods by researchers at the University of Nottingham. One of the authors was invited to give a talk on 11th April 2018 at Liverpool, forming a possible future collaborator for an element of a grant proposal. The ultimate aim of the project was to be able assimilate noisy data from proximity sensors and bacterial swabs around a ward at Alder Hey Children's hospital to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of infection spread. This will enable improved decision making strategies on infection control. Early in the project, the team, with the assistance of Alder Hey sketched an outline and identified potential locations for placing proximity sensors within the ward. In addition, extensive tests outside of the hospital were made using / testing the proximity sensors (motes) that were planned for use. In doing this, it was found that these sensors were not particularly accurate in cataloguing contacts when many are used at the same time. Despite attempts to re-coding them, it was decided that better sensors could be constructed. It was also observed that sensors that were available off the shelf were very expensive and with limited capacity to be tailored to needs. As a result, the research team, teamed up with Sensor City in Liverpool (http://www.sensorcity.co.uk/) with a view to designing a bespoke system which would be ideally suited for use in hospital environments. To do this, an additional £11,089 of internal EPSRC- funded impact acceleration money was acquired. This money is enabling the team to continue to develop bespoke purpose suited sensors and continue the efforts of the research collaboration as a whole.
Impact - Developed a compelling set of ideas, challenges and pilot data that will underpin a strong grant proposal. - Utilising an additional £12K matched core funds from the University of Liverpool in addition to the IAA funding - Now working towards a larger grant proposal (EPSRC healthcare technologies theme https://epsrc.ukri.org/funding/calls/htinvestigatorledresearchprojects/).
Start Year 2017
 
Description The spread of bacterial infections in children's wards: A pilot study with Alder Hey children's hospital, Liverpool. 
Organisation University of Liverpool
Department Institute of Infection and Global Health
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team performed a review of the modelling literature on infection spread within hospital wards. During this, the team also identified a promising strategy based on MCMC methods by researchers at the University of Nottingham. One of the authors was invited to give a talk on 11th April 2018 at Liverpool, forming a possible future collaborator for an element of a grant proposal. The ultimate aim of the project was to be able assimilate noisy data from proximity sensors and bacterial swabs around a ward at Alder Hey Children's hospital to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of infection spread. This will enable improved decision making strategies on infection control. Early in the project, the team, with the assistance of Alder Hey sketched an outline and identified potential locations for placing proximity sensors within the ward. In addition, extensive tests outside of the hospital were made using / testing the proximity sensors (motes) that were planned for use. In doing this, it was found that these sensors were not particularly accurate in cataloguing contacts when many are used at the same time. Despite attempts to re-coding them, it was decided that better sensors could be constructed. It was also observed that sensors that were available off the shelf were very expensive and with limited capacity to be tailored to needs. As a result, the research team, teamed up with Sensor City in Liverpool (http://www.sensorcity.co.uk/) with a view to designing a bespoke system which would be ideally suited for use in hospital environments. To do this, an additional £11,089 of internal EPSRC- funded impact acceleration money was acquired. This money is enabling the team to continue to develop bespoke purpose suited sensors and continue the efforts of the research collaboration as a whole.
Impact - Developed a compelling set of ideas, challenges and pilot data that will underpin a strong grant proposal. - Utilising an additional £12K matched core funds from the University of Liverpool in addition to the IAA funding - Now working towards a larger grant proposal (EPSRC healthcare technologies theme https://epsrc.ukri.org/funding/calls/htinvestigatorledresearchprojects/).
Start Year 2017
 
Description The spread of bacterial infections in children's wards: A pilot study with Alder Hey children's hospital, Liverpool. 
Organisation University of Liverpool
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The M2D Network supported this research collaboration through the provision of feasibility funding.
Collaborator Contribution The research team performed a review of the modelling literature on infection spread within hospital wards. During this, the team also identified a promising strategy based on MCMC methods by researchers at the University of Nottingham. One of the authors was invited to give a talk on 11th April 2018 at Liverpool, forming a possible future collaborator for an element of a grant proposal. The ultimate aim of the project was to be able assimilate noisy data from proximity sensors and bacterial swabs around a ward at Alder Hey Children's hospital to enable a better understanding of the mechanisms of infection spread. This will enable improved decision making strategies on infection control. Early in the project, the team, with the assistance of Alder Hey sketched an outline and identified potential locations for placing proximity sensors within the ward. In addition, extensive tests outside of the hospital were made using / testing the proximity sensors (motes) that were planned for use. In doing this, it was found that these sensors were not particularly accurate in cataloguing contacts when many are used at the same time. Despite attempts to re-coding them, it was decided that better sensors could be constructed. It was also observed that sensors that were available off the shelf were very expensive and with limited capacity to be tailored to needs. As a result, the research team, teamed up with Sensor City in Liverpool (http://www.sensorcity.co.uk/) with a view to designing a bespoke system which would be ideally suited for use in hospital environments. To do this, an additional £11,089 of internal EPSRC- funded impact acceleration money was acquired. This money is enabling the team to continue to develop bespoke purpose suited sensors and continue the efforts of the research collaboration as a whole.
Impact - Developed a compelling set of ideas, challenges and pilot data that will underpin a strong grant proposal. - Utilising an additional £12K matched core funds from the University of Liverpool in addition to the IAA funding - Now working towards a larger grant proposal (EPSRC healthcare technologies theme https://epsrc.ukri.org/funding/calls/htinvestigatorledresearchprojects/).
Start Year 2017
 
Description Climate dynamics analysis community: LWEC (CliMathNet, RECoVER, PEN) Jan 2018 meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Debated the positives and areas for development of the current 'state-of-the-art' for physical and mathematical analysis of climate systems. I was invited to chair one of the presentation sessions. The contribution that the UK's science base makes in this area was noted to be internationally leading edge and as such this asset should continue to be endorsed and supported in the agile research culture of the future. Suggested areas to further develop are to enhance are linkage of different 'dialects' of mathematics, physics and statistics based on recognised phenomena.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description M2D / Winton Centre Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact The Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, in association with the M2D Network organised and hosted a 24hr workshop on communicating uncertainty on November 26-27th 2018, at Ye Olde Bell hotel in Berkshire.

The aim of the workshop was to bring together modellers and researchers with uncertainties to communicate, professional communicators and graphic designers from a range of backgrounds, and representatives of the decision-making audiences.

The workshop was extremely practical, with participants divided into three groups to work on the communication of uncertainty in one of three fields: Medicine, Climate Change and Economics/Business. Each group consisted of researchers and their target audience, along with professional communicators to help create potential graphics and phrases that assisted the communication issue.

In the first afternoon the groups works together intensely to create a graphical format each to communicate the uncertainties in an example chosen from their field. Overnight (whilst the participants enjoyed dinner) these were tested and evaluated online. The following morning, the results of that evaluation were analysed and the groups set about refining their communications as a result before lunch and departure.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/winton-centre-m2d-workshop-communicating-uncertainty
 
Description M2D Annual Conference in decision making under uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact The Models to Decisions (M2D) Network (funded by a consortium of UK Research Councils) aims to bring together all those interested in the use of mathematical, numerical and statistical models in decision. This includes decision makers as well as academics study models and decision making. Mathematical models ofter appear to be deterministic but in real world scenarios are always subject to uncertainty which needs to be taken into account when making decisions. The first theme of the network is the quantification of uncertainty in complex numerical or mathematical models. Decision making is still largely carried out by people and not machines and different decision makers interpret and handle the results from models differently. The second theme is investigating how decision makers use outputs of models to make decisions. Most decision makers are not experts in handling uncertain information, and even experts frequently get it wrong. The third them of the network is how we communicate uncertainty, in both words and pictures, to help decision makers. These three themes over a wide range of academic disciplines from mathematics to psychology, philosophy and the humanities. This wide range of disciplines is reflected in the invited and contributed talks and posters present at the M2D conferences. We challenge all our presented / speakers to ensure that their talks of readily accessible to all backgrounds and disciplines.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018,2019
URL http://blogs.exeter.ac.uk/models2decisions/events/m2d-2018-annual-conference/
 
Description Visit to Sidmouth School as part of Sidmouth Science Festival 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact My PhD student (Louise Kimpton) and I gave an interactive presentation on work Louise has been doing on on generalising Markov Chains to de Bruin graphs. The presentation was to GCSE and A level mathematics students at the secondary school in Sidmouth. The object was to show them that cutting edge mathematics does not have to be difficult to understand. a secondary objective was to inspire the girl students to take mathematics at university by presenting Louise as a role model. (After the event one 14 year old girl described Louise as an icon!)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018