TRACK: Transport Risk Assessment for COVID Knowledge
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Civil Engineering
Abstract
Public Transport (PT) patronage is currently well below the norm, but as restart progresses the number of people using transport systems will increase. This could increase COVID-19 infection due to increased proximity and interaction with infected persons and contaminated surfaces. TRACK will develop a novel risk model that can simulate infection risk through three transmission mechanisms (droplet, aerosol, surface contact) within different transport vehicles and operating scenarios.
Our interdisciplinary team will collect new data concerning buses, metro and trains (Leeds, Newcastle, London). We will collect air and surface samples to measure SARS-Cov-2 prevalence together with other human biomarkers as a proxy measure for pathogens. We will characterise user and staff travel behaviour and demographics through surveys and passive data collection to relate PT use to geographic and population sub-group disease prevalence. Quantifying proximity of people and their surface contacts through analysis of transport operator CCTV data will enable simulation of micro-behaviour in the transport system. Physical and computational models will be used to evaluate dispersion of infectious droplets and aerosols with different environmental infection control strategies. Data sources will be combined to develop probability distributions for SARS-CoV-2 exposure and simulate transmission risk through a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework.
Working closely with Department for Transport (DfT) and transport stakeholders, TRACK will provide microbial and user data, targeted guidance and risk planning tools that will directly enable better assessment of infection risks for passengers and staff using surface PT networks, and help policy teams design effective interventions to mitigate transmission
Our interdisciplinary team will collect new data concerning buses, metro and trains (Leeds, Newcastle, London). We will collect air and surface samples to measure SARS-Cov-2 prevalence together with other human biomarkers as a proxy measure for pathogens. We will characterise user and staff travel behaviour and demographics through surveys and passive data collection to relate PT use to geographic and population sub-group disease prevalence. Quantifying proximity of people and their surface contacts through analysis of transport operator CCTV data will enable simulation of micro-behaviour in the transport system. Physical and computational models will be used to evaluate dispersion of infectious droplets and aerosols with different environmental infection control strategies. Data sources will be combined to develop probability distributions for SARS-CoV-2 exposure and simulate transmission risk through a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework.
Working closely with Department for Transport (DfT) and transport stakeholders, TRACK will provide microbial and user data, targeted guidance and risk planning tools that will directly enable better assessment of infection risks for passengers and staff using surface PT networks, and help policy teams design effective interventions to mitigate transmission
Publications
Aranega-Bou P
(2023)
Laboratory Evaluation of a Quaternary Ammonium Compound-Based Antimicrobial Coating Used in Public Transport during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
in Applied and environmental microbiology
Aranega-Bou P
(2024)
A 17-month longitudinal surface sampling study carried out on public transport vehicles operating in England during the COVID-19 pandemic identified low levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA contamination.
in Journal of applied microbiology
Bate A
(2024)
A quantitative microbial risk assessment approach to estimate exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a bus
in Journal of Transport & Health
Bell DS
(2023)
Social Distance Approximation on Public Transport Using Stereo Depth Camera and Passenger Pose Estimation.
in Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
De Kreij R
(2022)
Modeling disease transmission in a train carriage using a simple 1D -model
in Indoor Air
Harrison G
(2024)
Influencing transport-health interactions through incentivised mode switch using new data and models
in Journal of Transport & Health
| Description | Working closely with Department for Transport (DfT) and transport stakeholders, TRACK has focused on understanding the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission on ground public transport, and approaches to mitigate risks. The study has provided microbial sample and user data, computational model outputs, targeted guidance, responsive guidance and risk planning knowledge to directly enable better assessment of infection risks for passengers and staff who use ground public transport networks, and to help policy teams design effective interventions to mitigate transmission. TRACK has also developed new methodologies for measuring and modelling infectious disease transmission risks and passenger behaviour on public transport, and highlighted gaps in research and practice relating to healthy transport environments. KEY FINDINGS FROM TRACK: • The main factor influencing risk for passengers during a particular journey is how infectious any infected individual travelling is, however as this is usually unknown mitigation measures need to consider the range of risks. • Community infection prevalence plays a pivotal role in determining the likely exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes COVID-19. Discouraging symptomatic individuals from travelling can substantially reduce overall risk. • Improved ventilation can significantly reduce the risk of exposure, in particular where the journey time is long. • Where journey times are short and passenger loading is high, short-range transmission may dominate via inhalation of droplets and, aerosols, as well as exposure to contaminated surfaces. • Anti-microbial coatings, which demonstrated potential value in a laboratory setting, are likely to be ineffectual in a busy multi-user environment. • Physical distancing and mask wearing are highly likely to be the most effective mitigation against SARS-CoV-2 transmission. • Passengers who relied upon public transport for regular travel and vulnerable passengers were more likely to be compliant with mitigation advice such as social distancing and mask wearing. There remain substantial gaps in knowledge around transmission risks on public transport, as well as the quality of the indoor environment on trains, buses and undergrounds for wider health and wellbeing. Future priorities for research and industry include: focusing on improving vehicle design and technology for health; interactions between people and the environment; and establishing operational strategies to improve baseline resilience to infection transmission and actions in response to a disease outbreak. |
| Exploitation Route | Considering academic and non-academic routes, briefly explain how - and by whom - you envisage your research outcomes being taken forward, bearing in mind your answer to the next question on sector (we recommend no more than 200 words). TRACK research has already led to substantial policy and practice impacts during the pandemic through direct interactions with DfT and transport operators and sharing of key outcomes through policy briefings and presentations. Follow on activities are now focused on embedded knowledge to support long term resilience to infection transmission TRACK has led to 6-month Impact acceleration funding to support the development of a Cleaning Framework document and online toolkit to provide guidance to ground public transport operators on developing effective cleaning practices. Funding has also been secured for an additional 3-month Impact acceleration funding project which is reviewing industry standards for resilience towards potential impacts of climate change and net zero commitments. Ground public transport operators, the Department for Transport (DfT) and the Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) will be able to use information generated to risk assess and mitigate against emerging threats to the industry. Furthermore, TRACK has led to collaboration on two large hub proposals with decisions pending. The TRACK final report will be available on the TRACK website alongside links to previous and emerging publications originating from the project. Operators, DfT and industry bodies e.g. RSSB can use this as a portal to access information to improve their operational resilience going forward and to future pandemics. |
| Sectors | Transport |
| URL | https://track-project.org.uk/ |
| Description | Findings have been shared with Department for Transport and transport stakeholders (e.g. train and bus operators and RSSB) who used knowledge to directly inform policy and strategy. The work has substantially raised understanding of the role that public transport may play in transmission, informing guidance and practice. It has also raised new questions around long-term resilience, standards, operating practice and guidance which has implications for design of transport vehicles through to how they are managed. Findings have also been shared with SAGE and relevant sub-groups and informed aspects of COVID-19 policy such as the social distancing review (Spring 2021) and Plan B (Autumn 2021). They have been shared with Cabinet Office and others in government departments. TRACK impacts on public transport during the pandemic have been outlined in a UKRI impact evaluation report (https://www.ukri.org/publications/impact-evaluation-of-ukris-ri-funding-response-to-covid-19/) which highlights that TRACK "findings were the most significant evidence the Department for Transport used to inform its overall departmental COVID-19 strategy". Findings have contributed to sector planning for developing resilience to future pandemics, including through engagement with RSSB in the development of their "Pandemic Playbook". Findings have also been used as a platform on which to develop further funding bids. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
| Sector | Transport |
| Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
| Description | COVID-19 public inquiry |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/documents/inq000236261-witness-statement-of-professor-catherine-no... |
| Description | Covid-19 PT advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | Policy reports from TRACK have provided summary information from the research on factors which are likely to affect risks of COVID-19 transmission in public transport and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. This has supported policy decisions around ventilation and face coverings and advice to transport operators on priorities for mitigation. |
| Description | Expert witness to House of Commons Transport Committee: Future of Transport Data |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Description | Infection Resilient Environments Pt 2 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| URL | https://nepc.raeng.org.uk/infection-resilient-environments |
| Description | RAEng Infection Resilient Environments Pt 1 |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
| Impact | Report had a rapid impact on COVID-19 response including improved guidance from HSE and BEIS for organisations, establishment of ventilation advisory groups and the commissioning of a follow on piece of work to assess research capability, social benefit, best practice. |
| URL | https://www.raeng.org.uk/policy/policy-projects-and-issues/infection-resilient-environments |
| Description | Review of UKRI COVID-19 funding |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | TRACK research underpinned key decisions taken by policy makers and operators as the transport sector emerged from COVID-19 lockdowns and adapted to enable safer environments for passengers. |
| URL | https://www.ukri.org/publications/impact-evaluation-of-ukris-ri-funding-response-to-covid-19/ |
| Description | SAGE COVID-19 advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Research outputs and methodologies plus academic expertise have supported the scientific evidence on COVID-19 transmission and appropriate mitigation strategies. Noakes was a participant in SAGE and chaired the SAGE Environment and Modelling Group. This group has contributed to over 50 evidence papers relating to the transmission of COVID-19, which underpin the public advice on reducing risk of infection and the advice to all sectors of the economy on implementing appropriate mitigation strategies. Several papers reference outputs/models from HECOIRA and previous EPSRC awards relating to transmission of infection, and a number of papers apply modelling approaches developed through these awards. |
| URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-... |
| Description | SAGE advice |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Input has informed government policies on public transport risks and mitigation which have directly influenced decisions on public transport and also enabled wider insights into the variability in factors that affect risks. |
| Description | WHO Europe High level group |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Description | IAA: A Cleaning Framework for Ground Public Transport to Mitigate Against Infectious Disease Transmission. |
| Amount | £51,595 (GBP) |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 09/2023 |
| End | 06/2024 |
| Description | IAA: Transport Standards Review |
| Amount | £29,844 (GBP) |
| Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2024 |
| End | 03/2024 |
| Description | Research Hub for Decarbonised Adaptable and Resilient Transport Infrastructures (DARe) |
| Amount | £10,568,485 (GBP) |
| Funding ID | EP/Y024257/1 |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 08/2023 |
| End | 03/2027 |
| Description | University of Leeds EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account |
| Amount | £71,900 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Start | 01/2024 |
| End | 03/2024 |
| Title | Short running title: Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on the subway |
| Description | This is the underlying dataset which has created the graphs for the journal article entitled: Modelling the factors that influence exposure to SARS-CoV-2 on a subway train carriage. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2021 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| URL | https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Short_running_title_Exposure_to_SARS-CoV-2_on_the_subway/16912... |
| Description | TRACK - PROTECT NCS |
| Organisation | Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (DSTL) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Modelling methods and knowledge developed during TRACK have been used as the basis for modelling of transmission of COVID within workplace environments as part of the PROTECT National Core Study on Transmission. The PROTECT study is a very large national study led by HSE with multiple academic and PSRE partners. The collaboration has been predominantly with DSTL. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have provided modelling expertise and data on transmission as well as provided a general sounding board to support modelling work across both projects. Knowledge gained from modelling within the PROTECT project has influenced the second generation of TRACK models. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | TRACK - PROTECT NCS |
| Organisation | Health and Safety Executive (HSE) |
| Department | HSE Science Division (HSE-SD) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Modelling methods and knowledge developed during TRACK have been used as the basis for modelling of transmission of COVID within workplace environments as part of the PROTECT National Core Study on Transmission. The PROTECT study is a very large national study led by HSE with multiple academic and PSRE partners. The collaboration has been predominantly with DSTL. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Partners have provided modelling expertise and data on transmission as well as provided a general sounding board to support modelling work across both projects. Knowledge gained from modelling within the PROTECT project has influenced the second generation of TRACK models. |
| Impact | None yet |
| Start Year | 2021 |
| Description | Act Travelwise event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | An on-line event with the not-for-profit group Act Travelwise introduced the user behaviour and demographics data collection approaches and was used to support recruitment and stakeholder engagement with 27 organisations including leads on organisational travel plans and the NHS. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | CDRC Conference 2022: Inside Consumer Data |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | The conference was an opportunity to showcase the work of the Consumer Data Research Centre (CDRC) and set it in its broadest context. Keynote speakers were Lauren Sager Weinstein (Chief Data Officer, Transport for London) and Judith Batchelar OBE (Director of Food Matters International, formerly Director of Sainsbury's Brand). Prof. Susan Grant-Muller presented work from TRACK on the use of new data and technologies within one of the three parallel sessions, focusing on Urban Analytics. The final session was an in-conversation with four early-career researchers about their experiences on the CDRC's training programmes and working on collaborative industry/academic projects. The presentation by Prof. Grant-Muller was aimed at increasing knowledge of the potential of new data forms to improve understanding of close proximity events, thereby exposure of the public to COVID-19 or other virus, during every day travel. The event as a whole increased people's knowledge about the CDRC and will lead to new connections and collaborations (with both academia and industry). 116 attendees. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Modelling workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Workshop on risk modelling in transport bringing together academic and government scientists to share expertise and knowledge. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | National Academies, Science, Engineering Medicine (NASEM) workshop series on Indoor Air and Public Transportation (COVID) |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | NASEM ran a short series of workshops related to COVID-19 and the presentation given was on behalf of the UKRI rapid response TRACK project. The workshop brought together academics, professionals and policy stakeholders from across the US and internationally to share the most recent findings and trials of mitigations. This was an opportunity to share understanding of research outcomes, novel approaches and 'what worked', resulting in a set of guidance and recommendations published on the NASEM website. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | PROTECT-TRACK seminar |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | Public and industry/business facing seminar co-organised with the PROTECT national core study on transmission, 1st Oct 2021. Presentation gave an overview of TRACK research and findings to date, and prompted questions. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| URL | https://sites.manchester.ac.uk/covid19-national-project/2021/09/17/understanding-and-controlling-cov... |
| Description | Pandemic Playbook table-top scenario planning workshop and presentations with RSSB |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | In September 2023 the TRACK team took part in a dissemination workshop on the Pandemic Playbook produced by the Railway Safety and Standards Board. The Playbook is a disease-agnostic industry guide for pandemic preparation, and members from the rail industry worked through the playbook in a table-top scenario planning session. The TRACK team presented some of the work and findings to rail industry members with presentations by: Dr Jo-Ann Pattinson on a general overview of TRACK findings and highlights from focus group and interview data, Dr Katy-ann Moseley on environmental sampling in the transport context and Dr Andrew Bate explained how TRACK used mathematical modelling to explore questions such as transmission pathways and mitigation impacts. The workshop was attended by rail operators from all over Great Britain and Eurostar. Feedback received about the presentations was excellent, and rail operators approached the team about involvement in future research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Public feedback on 'living lab' travel data collected during pandemic period |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | A public facing report summarising how patterns of travel changed during the pandemic was produced based on smartphone app data. This included summaries over time and by demographic subgroups. The report was publicised via a dedicated webpage and proactively sent via email to study participants. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| Description | Stakeholder Focus Groups- Industry, Government and the Public |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Focus groups were held with different stakeholder groups (the public, government and transport industry) to investigate the impact of Covid on public transport and people using public transport. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | TRACK Stakeholder event |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Stakeholder event in Dec 2023 to share TRACK key findings and discuss future challenges with a range of key stakeholders including from Department for Transport, key transport operators, members of the project advisory board and funders. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | The Alan Turing Institute, UCL & QMUL: AI and Sustainable Cities workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | The workshop was a cross-institution event supported by The Alan Turing Institute bringing together research and third-party contributors to the sustainable cities AI community. I gave the opening keynote on location and proximity detection technologies. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Ventilation Round Table with Department of Transport and Industry Operators |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
| Results and Impact | TRACK was approached by DfT to provide a guidance document on the best practices to optimise ventilation on ground public transport (buses, trains, taxi's, minbuses etc) with a view to mitigating the effects of both COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 during the winter season of 2022-2023. TRACK researchers responded quickly to this request and put together a guidance document which was disseminated (via DfT) to ground public transport operators. This was followed with a round table presentation and discussion with representatives from industry on 27th October 2022. Positive feedback was recieved from the event, with 75% reporting that the information given was helpful and will help inform contingency planning both in the short and longer terms. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Webinar-Resilience to future pandemics in the transport industry collaboration with RSSB |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Webinar co-hosted between TRACK and RSSB, where the RSSB presented their Pandemic Playbook, and TRACK presented findings relevant to future resilience in the transport industry |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/x/resilience-to-future-pandemics-in-the-transport-industry-tickets-5566... |