MOT: Motoring and car Ownership Trends in the UK
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Institute for Transport Studies
Abstract
Efforts to reduce the emissions from car travel have been hampered by a lack of specific information on car ownership and use. In 2010, the Department for Transport released a dataset containing annual MOT test records for cars from 2005 onwards, with regular updates promised. By providing relatively comprehensive information about British car ownership and use, this dataset provides a key opportunity to address a number of issues in transport and energy debates. For the first time precise links can be made between car use and car type, and changes in use over space and time can be examined on a relatively complete basis. When combined with a wealth of other existing data sets (not least the new information from the 2011 Census), a range of new and important insights should emerge.
Having already worked together as a project team to scope the use of this data in a small EPSRC-funded study in 2011, we now propose to use it as a platform upon which to develop a set of interlinked modelling and analysis tasks using multiple sources of vehicle-specific and area-based data.
A set of interdependent workpackages will span three years to investigate spatial and temporal differences in car ownership and use, the determinants of those differences, and how levels may change over time and in response to various policy measures. The relationships between car ownership, car use, fuel use and vehicle emissions, and the demographic, economic, infrastructural and socio-cultural factors influencing these will be tested mathematically using spatial statistics, regression modelling and scenario analyses. Linkages will also be made with spatial patterns of domestic gas and electricity usage in order to understand relationships within and between these end-user energy demands.
The new analysis capability will be tested through case study evaluation of local transport policies. By enabling car ownership and use to be examined at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, and via techniques to identify areas sharing important 'background' characteristics, it should be possible to answer key questions for sustainable transport policies such as, what difference to car ownership and use have particular policies achieved (compared with areas where these policies were not in place)? It will also be able to calculate figures for fuel use and emissions to contribute to the development of policies specifically targeted at the most energy intensive or polluting drivers or localities. We will also be able to link energy use from cars, with domestic energy usage through household electricity and gas. This will allow us to build up a much better picture of energy and carbon footprints across the country. When linked to patterns of income, multiple deprivation and other socio-economic factors, there will be insights for the design of much more effective climate and energy policies, and to ensure that the burden of these is borne equitably.
The project will be supported by an Applied Statistics Expert Panel, and includes provision for workshops with key stakeholders to help shape the work. The project will also help develop a specification for a possible web-based tool to enable a wide community of users to undertake their own analysis on these sorts of issues, using the data and tools that we develop.
In order to achieve our goals, we will develop methods to overcome the challenges of merging a range of important but disparate datasets, based on varying spatial, temporal and other characteristics, and subject to varying issues of data protection and sensitivity. Our scoping study demonstrated that there are very significant technical challenges to be overcome in working with datasets of this size and nature, and a wide range of disciplines may be able to learn from this work. The analysis frameworks and the new scientific understanding delivered will be the important legacies of this project.
Having already worked together as a project team to scope the use of this data in a small EPSRC-funded study in 2011, we now propose to use it as a platform upon which to develop a set of interlinked modelling and analysis tasks using multiple sources of vehicle-specific and area-based data.
A set of interdependent workpackages will span three years to investigate spatial and temporal differences in car ownership and use, the determinants of those differences, and how levels may change over time and in response to various policy measures. The relationships between car ownership, car use, fuel use and vehicle emissions, and the demographic, economic, infrastructural and socio-cultural factors influencing these will be tested mathematically using spatial statistics, regression modelling and scenario analyses. Linkages will also be made with spatial patterns of domestic gas and electricity usage in order to understand relationships within and between these end-user energy demands.
The new analysis capability will be tested through case study evaluation of local transport policies. By enabling car ownership and use to be examined at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, and via techniques to identify areas sharing important 'background' characteristics, it should be possible to answer key questions for sustainable transport policies such as, what difference to car ownership and use have particular policies achieved (compared with areas where these policies were not in place)? It will also be able to calculate figures for fuel use and emissions to contribute to the development of policies specifically targeted at the most energy intensive or polluting drivers or localities. We will also be able to link energy use from cars, with domestic energy usage through household electricity and gas. This will allow us to build up a much better picture of energy and carbon footprints across the country. When linked to patterns of income, multiple deprivation and other socio-economic factors, there will be insights for the design of much more effective climate and energy policies, and to ensure that the burden of these is borne equitably.
The project will be supported by an Applied Statistics Expert Panel, and includes provision for workshops with key stakeholders to help shape the work. The project will also help develop a specification for a possible web-based tool to enable a wide community of users to undertake their own analysis on these sorts of issues, using the data and tools that we develop.
In order to achieve our goals, we will develop methods to overcome the challenges of merging a range of important but disparate datasets, based on varying spatial, temporal and other characteristics, and subject to varying issues of data protection and sensitivity. Our scoping study demonstrated that there are very significant technical challenges to be overcome in working with datasets of this size and nature, and a wide range of disciplines may be able to learn from this work. The analysis frameworks and the new scientific understanding delivered will be the important legacies of this project.
Planned Impact
Around a quarter of UK greenhouse gas emissions (excluding international aviation and shipping) result from transport. Much of this is due to road transport, and from car use in particular.
The project will design new frameworks for understanding car ownership and usage and its related energy use and emissions. This will allow the development of more effective policies for reducing the impacts of car use, particularly in relation to greenhouse gases, but also wider impacts relating to traffic volumes and their emissions, including congestion and public health effects.
The project has relevance to policy at a range of levels and departments, not least to the Department for Transport (DfT) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) who are both project partners. The project will provide a greater understanding of how car ownership and use currently varies across the country, and, for the first time, will provide a way of making the links between types of vehicle (including fuel) and how far they are driven. By also considering patterns and rates of uptake of new vehicles in the fleet, we will also be able to help map out future scenarios in order to understand the permeation of lower emission vehicles, and future needs for new infrastructure such as gas supplies and electric charging points. These outcomes could help private sector infrastructure providers and utility companies cater for future use.
At a lower level, local authorities in the UK are involved in managing transport with regard to a range of concerns, including congestion, air pollution and carbon emissions. The project will develop and test methods to use the MOT data combined with other data as a means for assessing the impacts of local transport schemes, such as those currently being implemented under the Local Sustainable Transport Fund. Such methods could bring efficiencies to data analysis and provide significant advantages over conventional evaluation methods given the comprehensive and ongoing nature of the MOT data collection. For instance, it could provide relatively straightforward opportunities to obtain data from potential 'control' areas against which to benchmark the impact of local transport interventions.
In addition to aiding the practical development and assessment of national and local policies around transport and energy, the spatial scale of the data will allow an assessment of how patterns of car ownership and use vary according to social and economic factors such as income, employment and other indicators of deprivation. By linking with patterns of domestic energy use, and exposure to air pollution, this will allow a wide range of energy and transport policies to be examined in the context of social and environmental justice issues.
Internationally, the findings and techniques developed in this project will help the UK to maintain its leadership role in establishing credible ways to achieve the significant cuts that are needed in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 40 years and beyond. To maintain this leadership, any serious development of emissions pathways out to 2050 requires substantially improved knowledge not just of how different vehicle technologies are being adopted, but how they are being used on the road.
The project will design new frameworks for understanding car ownership and usage and its related energy use and emissions. This will allow the development of more effective policies for reducing the impacts of car use, particularly in relation to greenhouse gases, but also wider impacts relating to traffic volumes and their emissions, including congestion and public health effects.
The project has relevance to policy at a range of levels and departments, not least to the Department for Transport (DfT) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) who are both project partners. The project will provide a greater understanding of how car ownership and use currently varies across the country, and, for the first time, will provide a way of making the links between types of vehicle (including fuel) and how far they are driven. By also considering patterns and rates of uptake of new vehicles in the fleet, we will also be able to help map out future scenarios in order to understand the permeation of lower emission vehicles, and future needs for new infrastructure such as gas supplies and electric charging points. These outcomes could help private sector infrastructure providers and utility companies cater for future use.
At a lower level, local authorities in the UK are involved in managing transport with regard to a range of concerns, including congestion, air pollution and carbon emissions. The project will develop and test methods to use the MOT data combined with other data as a means for assessing the impacts of local transport schemes, such as those currently being implemented under the Local Sustainable Transport Fund. Such methods could bring efficiencies to data analysis and provide significant advantages over conventional evaluation methods given the comprehensive and ongoing nature of the MOT data collection. For instance, it could provide relatively straightforward opportunities to obtain data from potential 'control' areas against which to benchmark the impact of local transport interventions.
In addition to aiding the practical development and assessment of national and local policies around transport and energy, the spatial scale of the data will allow an assessment of how patterns of car ownership and use vary according to social and economic factors such as income, employment and other indicators of deprivation. By linking with patterns of domestic energy use, and exposure to air pollution, this will allow a wide range of energy and transport policies to be examined in the context of social and environmental justice issues.
Internationally, the findings and techniques developed in this project will help the UK to maintain its leadership role in establishing credible ways to achieve the significant cuts that are needed in greenhouse gas emissions over the next 40 years and beyond. To maintain this leadership, any serious development of emissions pathways out to 2050 requires substantially improved knowledge not just of how different vehicle technologies are being adopted, but how they are being used on the road.
Publications
Chatterton T
(2016)
Mapping household direct energy consumption in the United Kingdom to provide a new perspective on energy justice
in Energy Research & Social Science
Chatterton T
(2017)
Air pollution: Putting people at the heart of the issues
in Environmental Scientist
Chatterton T
(2017)
The UK just missed a big chance to cut harmful diesel pollution
Emmerson P
(2017)
Impact of collinearity on the spatial analysis of car ownership and use
Cairns S
(2017)
Vehicle inspections - from safety device to climate change tool
Morton C
(2018)
Fuel price differentials and car ownership: A spatial analysis of diesel cars in Northern Ireland
in Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Chatterton T
(2018)
Financial Implications of Car Ownership and Use: a distributional analysis based on observed spatial variance considering income and domestic energy costs
in Transport Policy
Description | • A new theory has been developed to estimate fine-scale temporal (e.g., monthly) variations in vehicle mileage at a population level - derived from coarse-scale (e.g., annual) mileage data at an individual vehicle level. • Analysis of vehicle level mileage data at small area UK geographies (LSOA and MSOA) has tested comparative measures to understand how to best differentiate between areas and develop meaningful area-level metrics to monitor change in car use and energy over time. Mean average mileage is found to be an inferior indicator (showing less variation and sensitivity to change over time) than other indicators. • Engine size and fuel type account for much less variation on overall energy use and emissions compared with that of distance driven at an area level • A new perspective on assessing the financial impacts of private car usage in England and Wales suggests that lower income areas, especially in rural locations, spend around twice as much of their income on motoring costs as the highest income areas. • A minority of areas appear to be placing much greater strain on energy networks and environmental systems. These areas are not only the most likely to be able to afford energy efficiency measures to reduce their impacts, but are also found to have other capabilities that would allow them to take action to reduce consumption (such as particular configurations of housing type and tenure). |
Exploitation Route | The findings have academic signficance (new mathematical methods; new datasets for transport, energy and emissions analysis). We are working in close collaboration with the Department for Transport and DECC. The DfT have benefitted signficantly from our assistance with new methods and thinking of how to link datasets. IN addition, the policy analysis and modelling teams of DfT are benefitting from new insights about car usage and key socio-economic and spatial relationships as well as new thinking about tools for policy evaluation. |
Sectors | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Energy Transport |
URL | http://www.its.leeds.ac.uk/research/featured-projects/mot/ |
Description | Our results have been used to directly inform thinking within the Department for Transport about ways in which the MOT data can be securely put on public release and linked with other datasets to inform policy analysis and decision making, In addition, analysis of the spatial patterning of vehicle ownership and use has informed local authority thinking on the distributional impacts of Clear Air Zone Planning. The project team have been asked to analyse data for local authorities specifically to enter into their decision making process on local air quality policy. Advice on how the MOT data could be used to evaluate local NO2 plans has also been provided in a commissioned scoping report to DfT which then went on to inform the methodology developed for a four year evaluation study by DEFRA of local nitrogen dioxide plans. Use of this data will now be part of this evaluation process and this remains the case in 2022. The original core project team has continued its partnership with the DfT and secured a new data licence with the DVLA in order to update the analysis and work towards the automation of a dataset to be put on public release. |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Transport |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Advice to Comitttee on Climate Change for their Fifth Carbon Budget Review |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
URL | https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-fifth-carbon-budget-the-next-step-towards-a-low-carbon-eco... |
Description | Bristol Clean Air Zone Feasibility Study |
Amount | £14,995 (GBP) |
Organisation | Bristol City Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2017 |
Description | CARS : Connecting Administrative vehicle data for Research on Sustainable transport |
Amount | £845,037 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/X000648/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2022 |
End | 03/2026 |
Description | Consultancy support for the production of a full business case for an air quality solution in Leeds |
Amount | £3,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Leeds City Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2018 |
Description | DEMAND: Dynamics of Energy, Mobility and Demand |
Amount | £3,937,512 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/K011723/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2013 |
End | 06/2019 |
Description | DfT Shared Digital Carbon Architecture Programme - Digital platform to visualise cross-sectoral infrastructure carbon impacts |
Amount | £220,836 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Transport |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2021 |
End | 07/2022 |
Description | ESRC RCUK Innovation Fellowship Call 2017 (Invite Only) |
Amount | £408,203 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/S001743/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2018 |
End | 12/2021 |
Description | Evaluating local NO2 Plans |
Amount | £356,721 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department For Environment, Food And Rural Affairs (DEFRA) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2018 |
End | 07/2022 |
Description | Innovative Light ELEctric Vehicles for Active and Digital TravEl (ELEVATE): reducing mobility-related energy demand and carbon emissions |
Amount | £1,392,602 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/S030700/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2021 |
End | 05/2025 |
Description | NERC-Newton Fund : Atmospheric Pollution & Human Health in an Indian Megacity |
Amount | £815,417 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P016588/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2016 |
End | 10/2020 |
Description | RAC Foundation 'Data Driven' |
Amount | £14,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | RAC Foundation |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2017 |
End | 11/2017 |
Description | UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand |
Amount | £18,981,875 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/R035288/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand |
Amount | £18,981,875 (GBP) |
Funding ID | EP/R035288/1 |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC): - UK Energy Research Centre Flexible Research Fund Second Call |
Amount | £360,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 12/2016 |
End | 11/2018 |
Description | UK Energy Research Centre Flexible Research Fund Second Call |
Amount | £413,907 (GBP) |
Organisation | UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2017 |
End | 12/2019 |
Title | Place Based Carbon Calculator (PBCC) |
Description | Funded by a CREDS Impact Acelleration Grant. The PBCC generates an estimate of the per head carbon footprint for every neighbourhood in England, using a variety of data sources. An interactive web-based map can be interrogated at Local Super Output Area and Local Authority area for the carbon footprint, LSOA level data on travel to work, home heating & energy efficiency; 15 min travel isochrones for walking, cycling & public transport; The location of every bus stop, tram and rail station in England, colour coded by the frequency of service from it. Comparative stats are presented for comparison neigbourhoods and the whole of England etc. |
Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The PBCC was launched with an attendance of over 300 and is available at www.carbon.place. The website had had over 13,000 visitors in the first month, with very high levels of attention on social media and in the industry press. Project leader Malcolm Morgan did a TV interview as part of a 10-minute news item on the regional BBC programme Look East. A follow-up bespoke webinar for a cross-Whitehall group of civil servants that has resulted in major additional central government funding for the PBCC. It is being used by several local authorities and third sector organisations. |
URL | http://www.carbon.place |
Description | Work with West Midlands Public Health Authority on Clean Air Zone |
Organisation | West Midlands Combined Authority |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Had a data informed discussion to support the development of distributional impact assessment in Clean Air Zone development |
Collaborator Contribution | They were undertaking the Distributional Impact Assessment and Feasibility Study |
Impact | Multi-disciplinary: Public policy, environmental science, transport policy, social science (equity and justice) |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | A spatial typology of car usage and its local determinants in England. Phillips, I., Anable, J., Cairns, S., Emmerson, P. and Chatterton, T. In: 49th University Transport Studies Group Conference, Dublin, Eire, 04-06 January 2017. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | This is the key annual academic meeting for UK transport studies academics and generates a wide ranging debate about methods and potential impact of the research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://utsg.net/ |
Description | Anable, J. Sorting the Revolutions from the Hype. ACT Travelwise 'Sustainable Travel in a Changing World' conference, Birmingham, 17th January 2017. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Anable, J. Sorting the Revolutions from the Hype. ACT Travelwise 'Sustainable Travel in a Changing World' conference, Birmingham, 17th January 2017. Sparked much interest about the potential benchmarking tool for local authorities to come from this project |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.acttravelwise.org/media/102471/Jillian-Anable.pdf |
Description | Anable, J. Transport innovations and the carbon equation. Transport and Climate Summit, Energy Ireland, Dublin, 9th February 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Anable, J. Transport innovations and the carbon equation. Transport and Climate Summit, Energy Ireland, Dublin, 9th February 2017 Invited talk. Important international engagement. Sparked many questions/ comments on the use of disaggregated data to inform local policy. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Cairns S. Encouraging direct reductions in car use. International Energy Agency workshop on Transport, energy efficiency and behaviour, Paris, 10 May 2016. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Encouraging direct reductions in car use. International Energy Agency workshop on Transport, energy efficiency and behaviour, Paris, 10 May 2016. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://www.iea.org/workshops/workshop-on-transport-energy-efficiency--behaviour.html |
Description | Defra-National Centre for Atmospheric Science policy workshop 17th January |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Apologies for the email out of the blue. I am a NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellow working with Defra and based at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of York. I am organising a policy forum to bring together members of the air quality research community and Defra officials to discuss air quality challenges, research and evidence gaps, and to explore opportunities for future collaboration. The focus is on the UK Clean Air Strategy which is currently being developed; this meeting provides an opportunity to discuss some of the themes and key areas for input from the academic community. I am only planning to have a couple of talks with most of the meeting given over to discussion sessions. I am contacting you to invite you to give a short presentation on some of your work. I have seen you present a couple of times and have read some of your articles; of particular interest were your comments around the role of people and society in the air pollution issue (e.g. the article in Environmental Scientist on Air Pollution: putting people at the heart of the issues). There is also some interest in your recent MOToring Along report, although this forum is not focused on transport emissions but also wider air pollution sources. I think it is useful to look at air quality issues through different lenses and while we think about technological solutions, it seems that the air quality expert community less often get involved in the social side of the problem. It is hoped that your presentation could make the community think a little about the solution side of the issue, particularly the non-technical, and catalyse an interesting discussion. The forum is on 17th January in Westminster, London. The talk would only be short, ten minutes maybe 15 if more time was needed, followed by a discussion session (so no need to leave time for questions). The idea of the talks is not to provide a lot of information but to give some key points in an accessible way to an audience that is a mixture of researchers and policy makers. The following session is not a panel discussion, but an open discussion session and it is hoped that your presentation would stimulate an interesting conversation between attendees and of course your input to that would be valuable. If you are not available (I appreciate it is not a lot of notice) then is there anyone that you work with that you feel could present on this topic? Session 1: Clean Air Strategy 10:45 - 11:00 Harriet Wallace (Defra) - The Clean Air Strategy and the Emissions Challenge 11:00 - 11:45 Discussion. 11:45 - 11:55 Tim Chatterton - Putting people at the centre of air quality management (tbc) 11:55 - 12:30 Continued discussion - with some focus on the roles of and interactions between technology and behavioural/societal change to drive AQ improvements. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScnEypsRgKqDH6DY8ndQGSkk17m0hSoew279bpVSGmenpfWsg/viewform |
Description | Developing an index of vulnerability to motor fuel price increases in England. by Mattioli, G., Philips, I., Anable, J. and Chatterton, T. In: 49th University Transport Studies Group Conference, Dublin, Eire, 04-06 January 2017. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | The presentation was made at the key annual conference of UK transport academics. Around 50 academics attended this particular session and discussion was generated on the methodology imposed and the important uses to which an indicator of this sort could be put to aid decision making on the distribtutional impacts of policies at a local level. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://utsg.net/ |
Description | ENDS Report Interview and Article "Academics cast new doubt on scrappage proposals" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Academics cast new doubt on scrappage proposals Print friendly version By Gareth Simkins, 17 November 2017 16:22 GMT Sending old diesel cars to the scrapheap would do little to improve air quality Photograph: David Wright/Geograph Sending old diesel cars to the scrapheap would do little to improve air quality Photograph: David Wright/Geograph Calls for a diesel car scrappage scheme are founded on false assumptions, according to a comprehensive analysis of where 22 million cars are kept and driven. It backs the government's reservations about setting up such a scheme, which it believes would offer poor value for money. Published on 16 November by the RAC Foundation, the study found that the most polluting vehicles, based on both the amount they are driven and their per-kilometre emissions, tend to be outside the most populous and polluted areas. Paying to have them scrapped would therefore offer disappointing results in cleaning up urban air pollution. Where older vehicles are found in cities, then tend to be driven less and hence are responsible for relatively small emissions of nitrogen oxides, particulates and CO2. Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said: "The message is unmistakable. Targeting a scrappage scheme at the owners of old diesel cars in the most polluted areas is not going to get us where we need to be. Scrappage might sound like a sensible quick fix, but the sad fact is that there is no easy solution to our air quality problems." The report is based on a unique database of MOT test and vehicle licensing data gathered from 22 million cars. It was developed with the support of the Department for Transport, DEFRA, the former Department of Energy & Climate Change and other government and private organisations. The approach allowed figures for mileage, emissions and ownership data to be mapped, showing where the most polluting vehicles were kept, in a project led by Professor Jillian Anable of the University of Leeds' Institute for Transport Studies. Four other universities and research body TRL were also involved. The costs and benefits of a scrappage scheme have been a bone of contention between the government, MPs, business groups, think-tanks, the Mayor of London and air quality professionals for some years. ClientEarth repeated its call for one, alongside more clean air zones and reform to vehicle taxation in the forthcoming budget the day after the RAC Foundation's report was published . Co-author Tim Chatterton of the University of the West of England, commented: "It is time that UK air pollution policy stopped focussing solely on per-kilometre emissions from the vehicle fleet, and began to consider serious options for enabling less traffic on our urban roads. This would have benefits not just in terms of better air quality, but also in reducing noise, improving road safety and public space and quality of life more generally." The analysis found similar splits between town and country for many factors, with urban residents driving less and spending less on fuel in fewer cars per head (see figure below). Urban cars are also less likely to run on diesel. Average mileage per private car. Image: RAC Foundation But this relationship broke down somewhat when considering the age of cars in private ownership, with younger cars in the north of the UK and older ones in north and central Wales and southern and eastern England. There is no obvious explanation for the pattern. The study demonstrates that the amount that vehicles are used "tends to be considerably more important" in estimating their contribution to air pollution than their per-kilometre emissions. At the same time, cleaner, more modern vehicles are driven more than older ones, with averaging annual mileage for a car of thirteen years or more around half of those aged three years or less. "This suggests that measures to reduce distances driven will have a greater impact on reducing emissions than attempts to improve emissions performance of vehicles, whether or not tighter emissions standards are actually achieved," says the report. "For policy, this presents somewhat of a conundrum," it concludes. While newer cars are the most efficient, it raises the question of whether their purchase encourages drivers to use them more. If so, scrappage might have the perverse effect of increasing emissions. Alternatively, it may simply be the case that people who need to travel more tend to have newer vehicles. The authors are unable resolve the matter, but the data they have gathered offers the prospect of more detailed impact analyses being conducted into scrappage or any other policy that aims to accelerate fleet turnover. Over time, the 'MOT project' database could also track the uptake of electric vehicles and how they penetrate the second-hand market over time and space, and the way they are being used. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.endsreport.com/article/57890/scrappage-wont-work-says-new-study |
Description | ENDS Report Interview on Derby CAZ Proposals |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | "Tim Chatterton, senior research fellow at the University of the West of England's Air Quality Management Resource Centre, told ENDS that he "would want to see good evidence" that 'dirty' vehicles were clocking up significant mileage in the city. He noted that it is unclear what vehicles the council would target, so "if it is heavy duty vehicles then a retrofit rather than a scrappage scheme might be more appropriate". |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://app.researchfish.com/portfolio/0/dissemination-to-non-academic-audiences?action=add&zone=por... |
Description | Expert Reference Group Bristol City Council Joint Strategic Needs Assessment on Fuel Poverty |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Hello Tim, Your name was mentioned by my colleague Claire Lowman as the best person to approach regarding our writing of the JSNA chapter on Fuel Poverty. Bristol City Council is putting together a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment chapter on Fuel Poverty. The aims of the chapter is to discuss the issue of fuel poverty, highlight services that are currently available to those that are 'fuel poor' and determine areas for potential future improvements to reduce fuel poverty. We're currently putting together a reference group to provide input, data sources and expertise for the creation of the chapter. The involvement would include: • Attending Reference Group meetings (One December, one January) • Providing input into the JSNA scope at the above meetings • Provide data and expertise • Providing feedback and comments on the JSNA drafts Please let me know if this is something of interest to you. Looking forward to hearing from you. Please let me know if you have any questions. Kind regards, Aisha Stewart - Installations Project Officer Bristol City Council Energy Service Contact Number: 0117 357 6605 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Foresight Future of Mobility project Sustainable Transport Roundtable |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This report summarises the findings of a meeting of experts exploring the opportunities and implications arising from the future transport system. The workshop considered 3 main questions around sustainable transport: How can we make transport more sustainable, and increase active travel? How can we improve air quality and decrease carbon emissions in the transport system? What is the role for government and the private sector in moving to a more sustainable transport system? This report was produced as part of the Foresight future of of mobility project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-mobility-workshop-on-sustainable-transport |
Description | Greening the fleet: A spatial analysis of the local and global emission factors of the car fleet of the United Kingdom. Morton, C., Anable, J., Wadud, Z. and Chatterton, T. In: 49th University Transport Studies Group Conference, Dublin, Eire, 04-06 January 2017. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Paper presented at the key academic conference for transport studies in the UK also attended by some policy makers and certainly disseminated widely over various policy networks. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://utsg.net/ |
Description | International Transport Forum/OECD Roundtable on Social Impacts of Time and Space Based Road Pricing, Auckland (New Zealand), November 2017 leading to a published discussion paper by Anable, J. and Goodwin, P. (2017) Assessing the Net Overall Distributive Effect of a congestion charge. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited contribution based on MOT work undertaken to inform an international audience on how vehicle registration/ road worthiness test data could be used to inform decisions about how best to restructure vehicle taxation to mitigate externalities whilst optimising social equity. Policy makers in both New Zealand and Australia were very taken by this work and have requested follow up collaboration to develop similar approaches with them. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.itf-oecd.org/road-pricing-roundtable |
Description | Invitation to participate in Dutch Ministry for Infrastructure and Environment/European Commission workshop on "Behaviour in Sustainable Mobility and Logistics", Rotterdam, 27-28 September 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Major workshop between Dutch government and European commission helping shape the future of sustainable mobility policy and research, and how 'behaviour' is incorporated into this. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.nwo.nl/en/about-nwo/organisation/nwo-domains/magw/captain+for+one+day |
Description | Invited presentation at 2016 Centre for Transport and Society Winter Conference on "Putting people at the heart of the air pollution problem: Developing a more social approach to emissions analysis and reduction" 14th December 2016. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation of policy implications of research work made to group of influential policy and professional practitioners |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www1.uwe.ac.uk/et/research/cts/presentations.aspx |
Description | Keynote plenary presentation at Air Quality 2018: Science and Application conference, Barcelona 12-16th March 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Keynote plenary presentation on brining social sciences into air quality management.258 delegates from 58 countries reached. Was well received as a potentially discipline shaping challenging and radical presentation, that set the tone for the conference. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.airqualityconference.org/ |
Description | London Sustainability Exchange Workshop on NICE Air Quality Guidance with Chartered Institute of Environmental Health |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | NGO engagement workshop regarding the development of guidance by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence on air quality |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.lsx.org.uk/news/events.aspx?id=3747 |
Description | MOT data: making the data work for Local Authorities and other potential users 14th Annual Transport Practitioners' Meeting, Nottingham, June 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Cairns S, Chatterton T, Anable J, Wilson E, Ball S, Barnes J, Emmerson P MOT data: making the data work for Local Authorities and other potential users 14th Annual Transport Practitioners' Meeting, Nottingham, June 2016 Workshop attached to this annual conference to showcase local mapping with the data. Gauged interest by Local Authorities in testing further benchmarking tool to come from the project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | MOT project workshop at Department for Transport, London, 22nd March 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A end-of-project policy workshop held at the Department for Transport in London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Member of Expert Panel for discussion of Air Quality and Transport Issues at 50th University Transport Study Group Conference, London 4th January 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Panel on air quality and transport issues.Audience reported changes in views |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://utsg.net/ |
Description | Presentation and panel member at Policy UK workshop on 'Improving Air Quality in Our Towns and Cities' 24th November 2017. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation of policy implications from research work to influential group of policymakers, professional practitioners and third sector representatives. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://www.policy-uk.com/event/2365/Improving_Air_Quality_in_Our_Towns_and_Cities__Implementing__lsq... |
Description | Presentation on "The air pollution-transport divide: Why after two decades of statutory obligations is road transport derived air pollution not declining?" RGS Transport Geography Group workshop at Department for Transport, London, 29 August 2016. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Workshop to present policy relevant research to a select group of policymakers from DfT, DBEIS, and Defra. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://tgrg.wordpress.com/ |
Description | Presentation on 'Putting people at the heart of Air Quality Management: Developing a more social approach to emissions analysis and reduction'. Public Health England 2016 Annual UK Review Meeting on Outdoor and Indoor Air Pollution Research in the UK, Solihull, 26 September 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Public Health England Workshop presenting Air Pollution Research to range of influential stakeholders |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | https://www.phe-events.org.uk/hpa/frontend/reg/thome.csp?pageID=239673&eventID=606&traceRedir=2&even... |
Description | Pridmore, A. and Anable, J. Neighbourhood effects and the adoption of new vehicle technologies: exploring consumer take up of Toyota Priuses. BEHAVE 2016 4th European Conference on Behaviour and Energy Efficiency Coimbra, 8-9 September 2016. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Pridmore, A. and Anable, J. Neighbourhood effects and the adoption of new vehicle technologies: exploring consumer take up of Toyota Priuses. BEHAVE 2016 4th European Conference on Behaviour and Energy Efficiency Coimbra, 8-9 September 2016. Academic and practioner conference. Important dissemination of methods and to spread awareness of the data. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | RAC/DfT/ITS Workshop on Transport Poverty, RAC Foundation, London 24th November |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Research-policy engagement workshop with DfT and other influential participants at the RAC foundation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Research referenced by George Monbiot is Guardian Column 29th November 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | (Bold type was linked to this http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/28882/7/Barnes%20and%20Chatterton%20%25282016%2529%20An%20environmental%20justice%20analysis%20of%20exposure%20to%20traffic-related%20pollutants%20in%20England%20and%20Wales%20%2528FINAL%2529.pdf ) "Air pollution DISPROPORTIONATEY AFFECTS POORER COMMUNITIES, exposing their children to yet another disadvantage, as their lungs and brains are stunted. One study suggests that here in the UK 38 million people - 59% of the population - are immersed in pollution above the legal limit. Only those who can afford to live in villages and the leafy suburbs escape." |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/29/dirty-air-killing-children-government-politici... |
Description | TLT/Peter Brett Associates Developer Masterclass: Air quality and its impact on planning and development |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Event sparked lively discussion and led to a number of follow up enquiries regarding planning applications and air quality issues. Developer Masterclass: Air quality and its impact on planning and development 16:30 - 18:45 | 20 February 2018 | TLT, One Redcliff Street, Bristol BS1 6TP Air quality is an increasingly important consideration in the planning process, with developments being either refused planning permission on air quality grounds or being approved subject to significant contributions to mitigate air quality impacts. With the potential imposition of Clean Air Zones, the development picture has the potential to get more complicated. This masterclass will provide a forum for discussion of these and other current major air quality issues, with the aim of providing clarity as to the implications for developments, both now and in the future. The session will be led by guest speaker Dr Tim Chatterton (Senior Research Fellow, University of the West of England) and Graham Harker (Air Quality Team Leader, PBA). Agenda Registration and refreshments Masterclass commences Networking and drinks |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Transport Statistics User Group Seminar on Car fuel use and emissions-trends and future patterns |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Seminar Title: Car fuel use and emissions - trends and future patterns Description: The seminar will cover several different aspects past trends in fuel use and emissions and, looking forward, will show how scenarios of projections of the EV fleet and its power use and emissions may diverge. Seminar Date: 17 January 2018 Location: Transport for London Southwark Office Lots of questions and discussion afterwards, helped further discussion with Department for Transport. Led to contact and engagement with National Grid with respect to future work |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.tsug.org.uk/seminardetail.php?seminarname=Car%20fuel%20use%20and%20emissions%20-%20trends... |
Description | Vehicle Annual Mileage estimates - Peer review - Department for Transport 1st November 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Three members of the MOT project team participated in a small workshop with DfT staff in order to review government work on estimating vehicle mileage rates |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |