COVID-19: Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK economy

Lead Research Organisation: University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics

Abstract

This proposal, coordinated by the University of Nottingham under the umbrella of the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE), offers immediate data collection and research analysis about the impact of Covid-19 on businesses of different sizes, sectors and regions in collaboration with the Bank of England and Office for National Statistics. This real-time information is critical to decision making about the duration and management of the lockdown arrangements in the UK and business performance during the recovery from the Covid-19 episode.

Covid-19 is expected to create the largest contraction in UK economic activity in 300 years (real GDP down by 35%, unemployment up by 2 million in 2020Q2, Office for Budget Responsibility). The impacts on supply chains and demand are already affecting economies across the globe more deeply than ever experienced in living memory. HM Treasury and the Bank of England have launched large-scale programmes to support businesses as a bridge in the short-term to reduce unemployment and bankruptcy. Many more tough decisions will be required.

We will provide immediate business data for policy decisions and new research so that a balance can be struck between dealing with the medical and the economic costs of Covid-19. We will provide assessments of the costs in terms livelihoods - output, investment and jobs - so that policymakers have the data to form judgements about when to allow the economy to return to normality. Our inputs will be vital for government to understand the implications of these decisions on the UK economy over the next 18 months.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect.
Exploitation Route The findings are being taken forward by the Bank of England in the implementation of monetary policy, HM Treasury in the implementation of fiscal policy and by 10 Downing St, COBRA and the Cabinet in the development of Covid policy.
Sectors Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechn

URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/research-publications/
 
Description This project has provided near real-time data on current and future business activity and uncertainty to inform critical policy decisions by the Bank of England and UK government in response to Brexit and Covid-19. Beneficiaries included the Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury, Bank Policy Committees, other government departments and Parliament. Leading up to Brexit, DMP data: provided evidence on economic uncertainty in 21 meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) where it justified their decision to maintain interest rates at historic low levels; it informed the debate on the EU withdrawal agreement in Parliament through evidence to Treasury Committee; it supported fiscal policy responses specifically through change to the Annual Investment Allowances 2018-2021. During Covid, DMP data: justified looser monetary policies such as interest rate cuts, increases to funding schemes and asset purchases by the MPC; informed HM Treasury design of the full spectrum of Covid-19 support schemes such as furlough and business grants. These policies benefited businesses and their employees throughout the United Kingdom. The DMP inspired the ONS to develop its high-frequency Covid-19 business survey in 2020 to provide fortnightly data across government on which business policies are based.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Chemicals,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechn
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description 2020 - References In Other Publications
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2021 - References In Other Publications
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description Citation in Monetary Policy Report, August 2020
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Citation in Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2020/the-second-quarter-speech-by-andy-hald...
 
Description Data Used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Regularly sited within the MPC minutes and releases. Monthly presentations and reports are presented directly to the MPC for review. Regular correspondence with MPC members to discuss project findings and results surrounding uncertainty and the future effects.
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description Data Used by the Office of National Statistics
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the ONS, 2020 saw the start of some collaboration between the ONS and DMP in a bid to better understand the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit.
 
Description Data Used by the Treasury
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the Treasury to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding.
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Quarterly releases in conjunction with the Bank of England's Agents Network: December 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4 September 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q3 June 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q2 March 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q1
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings by Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding.
 
Description Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2020/november/monetary-poli...
 
Description Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2020/november-...
 
Description Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2020/the-potential-long-term-effects-of-cov...
 
Title Management Expectations Survey 2020 (MES) 
Description This project commissioned and developed in partnership with the Office for National Statistics the 2020 Management and Expectations Survey (MES) to collect information from businesses in both the services and production industries about their management practices and expectations for their business in the future. Built on the first-wave MES conducted in 2017, MES 2020 has embraced several developments, including switching from paper to online, a larger sampling frame (increased from 25,000 to 50,000 firms), a more developed sampling strategy, and the inclusion of COVID-19-related questions to cater for emerging research and policy interests. The survey went live on the 9th November 2020 and ran until the end of December 2020. Results are anticipated to be released in Spring 2021. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The information will be used to further investigate how management practices and uncertainty relate to productivity, as well as gauge businesses' expectations of Great Britain's economic climate in the near future. The data may be used by the government to inform policy-making on the economy and by other relevant institutions for research and decision-making. This may also be beneficial to businesses as the published statistics can be used as a benchmark to compare their business against the same, or across different, sectors. 
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforbusinesses/businesssurveys/managementandexpectations
 
Title UK business responses to Covid-19 
Description Webscraped data, regularly (fortnightly) collected information on responses to Covid-19 from business websites and news sources from February 2020 for 12 months based on set of keywords. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact These data will be linked to other data sets to help to understand and monitor the responses of UK businesses to the Covid-19 crisis. Analysis is currently underway. 
 
Description Office for National Statistics Collaboration 
Organisation Office for National Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution ONS and DMP have worked together to find ways that the DMP survey and teh new ONS BICS survey could work together collaboratively. We have held several meetings to coordinate questions, compare sample frames and survey overlap.
Collaborator Contribution Bank of England colleagues have been helping to compare the survey sample frame.
Impact No outputs yet, but we aim to agree a framework for working collaboratively during 2021.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Telephone survey 
Organisation IFF Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution The aim of this partnership is to conduct a survey to validate data we have collected from online sources on firms' responses to the coronavirus. Our research team provided an initial draft questionnaire and provide a sample frame of 3,300 businesses drawn from the FAME database, at least 2,300 of which will have contact telephone numbers.
Collaborator Contribution - IFF will help to advise and finalise the survey; - IFF will help telematch firms that do not have contact number on FAME, thus increasing the sample size for the survey; - IFF will train interviewers, conduct the interview with businesses and deliver results.
Impact This partnership aims to collect reliable data from surveys on firms' responses to the coronavirus pandemic. This dataset will then be used to validate data we collected by web-scraping public websites. This exercise will have a significant economic impact. Specifically, it will help us assess the extent to which such sources can provide good-quality information on company's activities in response to the pandemic.
Start Year 2021
 
Description 2020 - Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Financial Times, December 2020: UK Services Activity Better Than Expected, Despite New Covid Curbs
Bloomberg, November 2020: BOE's Ramsden Says Unclear if Vaccine Warrants Boost to Forecast
Reuters, November 2020: Bank of England's Ramsden Sees Plus For Economy From Vaccine News
The Telegraph, November 2020: Third of Hotels and Restaurants Fear Collapse Over 'Tough Winter'
The Wall Street Journal, September 2020: The Stock Market Barely Faltered in the 1918-20 Pandemic. Is History Repeating Itself?
Financial Times, August 2020: Central Bankers Grapple with Changed Landscape at Jackson Hole
The New York Times, August 2020: As Uncertainty Threatens U.S. Growth, Fed Seeks More Firepower
The Sunday Times, August 2020: V, W or Aarrgh? It Depends on the Virus - And Jobs
The Times, August 2020: New Thinking For a New Normal: Embrace Change or Be Left Behind
Sunday Times, June 2020: The Floor's The Limit - We Must Avoid Negative Interest Rates
Chicago Booth Review, April 2020: The US economy Could Contract 11 Percent in 2020
Financial Times, March 2020: Bank of England Warns of 'Very Sharp' Economic Downturn
New York Times, March 2020: More Firms Expect Brexit Uncertainty to Stretch Into 2021: Bank of England
Reuters, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021: Bank of England
Action Forex, March 2020: 76% of UK firms expect Brexit uncertainty to persist until at least 2021
Nasdaq, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021 - Bank of England
Markets Insider, March 2020: BoE Survey Shows More Firms See Brexit Uncertainty Lasting Until At Least 2021
Financial Times, February 2020: Business Investment Expected To Pick Up As Brexit Begins To Clear
Financial Times, January 2020: Is The UK Set For a Brexit Bounce?
Financial Times, January 2020: Will the Bank of England Cut Interest Rates?
The Times, January 2020: David Smith: Hoping For The Best on Brexit and World Trade
Independent, January 20202: Brexit: Four in 10 Firms Still Think Uncertainty Will Not Be Resolved in 2020
Financial Post, January 2020: UK Businesses Report Fall in Brexit Uncertainty In Dec - BoE Survey
MoneyAge, January 2020: Brexit Continues to Cause Uncertainty Amongst UK Businesses
The Telegram, January 2020: UK Companies Turn a Little Less Gloomy Over Brexit Impact - BoE Survey
Financial Times, January 2020: UK Hit by Sharpest Deterioration in Manufacturing in 7 Years
Independent, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Forexlive, January 2020: Cable gives back some of the late-year gains
Belfast Telegraph, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Bloomberg, January 2020: U.K. Election Result Reduces Companies' Brexit Uncertainty
The Guardian, January 2020: Business Hope Fading for Brexit Clarity in 2020, Bank Says
The Sun, January 2020: Election Booster, Print Only (p. 47)
Evening Express, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2020 - References In Other Publications 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, December 2020, p. 6, p. 9
ONS - Labour Market Overview, UK, December 2020, p. 5
Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses - Evidence From the Decision Maker Panel in 2020 Q4, December 2020
Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020, p. 2, p.11
Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020, p. 3, p. 23, p. 38-39
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020, p. 5
Midlands Engine, The State of the Region, October 2020, p. 5, p. 18-19, p. 21, p. 23
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2020, p. 16
Treasury Committee Report, Economic Impact of Coronavirus: the Challenges of Recovery, September 2020, p. 42-43, p. 56
Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, August 2020, p. 20, p. 24
Midlands Engine, Economic Impact of Covid-19, August 2020, p. 3, p. 7
Monetary Policy Report, August 2020, p. 23, p. 42, p. 48
Covid-19's Local Economic Impact on Nottingham - An Initial Assessment, August 2020, Nottingham City Council,
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020, p. 5
Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020, p. 11-12
Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting Sectoral Impacts on the UK ,VoxEU, June 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, June 2020, p. 6-8
What are the key sources of data for measuring the economy in a crisis?, Economics Observatory, June 2020
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), May 2020, p. 9
Why Is Uncertainty So Damaging For The Economy?, Economics Observatory, May 2020
How is Covid-19 Affecting Businesses in the UK?, LSE, May 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2020, p. 2, p. 9, p. 11, p.14
Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2020, p. 30, p. 36, p. 39-40, p. 56
Financial Policy Committee, Interim Financial Stability Report, May 2020, p. 39
Measuring and Combating the Negative Economic Impacts of Coronavirus, Steven J Davis, Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group, April 2020, p. 14, p. 16, p. 19
COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty and Its Consequences, VoxEU Post, April 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, March 2020, p. 7
Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 3
Dave Ramsden (Member of the MPC) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 1-2
Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), February 2020, p. 4
VoxEU, The Brexit vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the UK, February 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Report, (Data/Charts), January 2020, p. 2, p. 19-20, p. 40-41
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, January 2020, p. 3-4, p. 6
Monetary Policy Press Conference, Opening Remarks by The Governor , January 2020
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), January 2020, p. 9-11
Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), January 2020, p. 14
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2021 - References in Other Publicaitions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy Committee Report, February 2021, p. 8, p. 22, p. 25, p. 37-38, p. 43
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, February 2021, p. 5-6
Dave Ramsden Lecture: The Potential Long Term Effects of COVID-19, January 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description ESCoE website: Developing firm-level micro data for productivity analysis project page 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Description of project, overview, methods, impact, researchers involved and project outputs on the ESCoE website, launched September 2020. The project pages include details of both Understanding and Explaining Management Practices to Promote Higher Productivity in UK Businesses and Measuring the effects of Covid-19 on businesses and the UK Economy research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/projects/developing-firm-level-micro-data-for-productivity-analysis/
 
Description Escoe - Greg Thwaites - The Impact of COVID-19 on Productivity - November 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We present forecasts of the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the private sector of a representative industrialised country derived from a firm-level survey. Our estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce TFP by around 5 per cent in the year to 2021Q2. Firms anticipate a large, negative reduction in productivity within firms, which is more than fully accounted for by an increase in the use of intermediate inputs to produce sales. Part of this may not be fully measured in early vintages of official data. The negative within-firms effect is expected to be offset, partially and decreasingly over time, by a positive between-firms effect as employment shrinks most in the least productive sectors, and the least productive firms within them.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/
 
Description Federal Reserve Board - Black Swans: New Sources of Global Risks and their Effects - February 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A group of distinguished economists, risk management professionals and other experts in the financial markets meet twice a year with the president of the New York Fed to discuss financial stability issues and present their views on financial policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at Dartmouth, NH (USA) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact to be completed
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at ESCoE COVID-19 Webinar Series 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact to be completed
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/
 
Description Presentation at IMF Research and Fiscal Affairs Departments  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I gave a presentation of our findings about Covid and productivity
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation at Jackson Hole Symposium. USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact to be completed
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at LSE, Jan 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Potential Capital and 2) COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty

LSE - Jan 2021 - Potential Capital
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation at World Bank, USA - Sept 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nick Bloom, World Bank: Presenting Productivity Growth After The Pandemic
SEPTEMBER 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/
 
Description Presentation at the Congressional Budget Office, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nick Bloom, Congressional Budget Office: Presenting "Uncertainty and Reallocation"
JUNE 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/
 
Description Presentation at the EEA Congress - Aug 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact to be completeed
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.eeavirtual.org/
 
Description Presentation at the International Monetary Fund, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact to be completed
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentations at American Economic Association, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact American Economic Association, USA - 2 papers presented
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), June 2020: How Working From Home Works Out 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Working from home (WFH) is dominating our lives. If you haven't experienced the phenomenon directly, you've undoubtedly heard all about it, as U.S. media coverage of working from home jumped 12,000 percent since January.
The recent work has highlighted several recurring themes, each of which carries policy questions - either for businesses or public officials. But the bottom line is clear: Working from home will be very much a part of our post-COVID economy. So the sooner policymakers and business leaders think of the implications of a home-based workforce, the better our firms and communities will be positioned when the pandemic subsides.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out
 
Description Survey design meeting with the Japan MOPS team on the productivity dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Research meeting with the Japan MOPS team to design survey questionnaire of the second wave of the Management and Expectations survey. Survey design is conducted in a coordinated way with the Japan MOPS team so that we will have responses that are directly comparable between the UK and Japan, allowing us to investigate the driver of productivity dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic bringing about parallel empirical analysis in Japan and the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description VOx-EU - Jan 2021 - The impact of Covid-19 on productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity
 
Description World Bank Event 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Second World War. The pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars ranging from lower investment to the erosion of human capital. Ultimately, this may lower productivity and limit income growth. Conversely, the pandemic also raises the possibility of large structural changes to the global economy, some of which may be productivity-enhancing.

How will longer-term growth prospects in emerging markets be affected? What policies should be enacted to limit the damage from COVID-19? At this event, esteemed experts in economics will discuss these questions in light of a new World Bank Group report, Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies. Panelists will consider many possible outcomes for emerging market economies and discuss how they can boost productivity by taking advantage of structural economic changes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://live.worldbank.org/productivity-growth-after-pandemic