SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT: A CRUCIAL POINT FOR THE COUNTRY: A CRUCIAL TEST CASE FOR COMPARATIVE POLITICS
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Politics and International Relations
Abstract
The current political dynamics in Egypt are of huge importance to the stability of the country and the Middle East as a whole. Egypt is not just the most populous and culturally the most influential Arab country, whose success as a democracy (and its mode of transition or failure) would have powerful diffusion effects across the region. It is also a cornerstone for stability in the region, having been the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.
The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions.
Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.
Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results.
The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.
The removal of President Morsi by the Egyptian Army following mass public protests against his rule raises profound questions about the democratic commitments of Egyptian citizens, the future of democracy in Egypt, and the future of 'electoral Islamism', both in Egypt and beyond. There is an urgent need to collect data on Egyptian public opinion at this crucial point in the country's political transition in order to address these questions.
Immediately following the parliamentary elections of 2011, a privately funded survey of citizens conducted by the applicants produced three results of great relevance to the present political situation. First, Egyptian public opinion appeared overwhelmingly supportive of democracy as the best way of running the country. Second, differences between supporters of different parties were minimal. A third feature of public opinion at that time, however, illustrated clearly the nature of the country's current democratic cross-roads. Overall, we found very strong levels of support for a 'guardian army', including among a majority of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.
Clearly - and this is the nub of the set of issues we propose to investigate - Egyptian public opinion and party representation cannot now hold on the lines of 2011. But, we ask, in what directions are they breaking? From one angle, this may be the moment at which many Egyptians give up a belief in the very democratic principles they called for during the 2011 revolution (that power is transferred through elections, that the military keeps out of politics, that respect for human rights is universal even for those whom some might see as Islamist extremists). From a different angle, the several millions who took to the streets to call for Morsi to resign seemed to be applying, in effect, support for democracy in a format not restricted by the formalities of calling for elections, running a campaign, casting votes and announcing results.
The answers are crucial to the democratic future and governability of the country and for the future of 'electoral Islamism'. Consequently, we will conduct two further mass surveys of the Egyptian public - one to be conducted immediately funding and is assured and fieldwork possible, a second to be conducted when elections take place - to investigate how attitudes have changed since the period when Islamists won legislative and presidential elections. Given the broad political and economic importance of the knowledge that our project will produce for a range of user communities - governments, businesses, NGOs, and opinion leaders in the UK and internationally - we will engage in the widest possible dissemination and outreach activities and produce a unique and publicly accessible data set that may be the basis and anchor for further survey research in Egypt.
Planned Impact
The immediate and medium-term future of Egypt is of considerable importance to the democratic development and security of the Middle East. The aim of the research is to contribute to knowledge about the contemporary political situation in Egypt in order to shed light on the possible trajectories of the country's regime development and political stability. The beneficiaries of the research, therefore, are all those - national government officials and policy makers, NGO's, opinion leaders and the public in general - who have an interest and stake in understanding Egypt's political trajectory. They will benefit from the research through consumption of the academic outputs and publications, engagement of the investigators with stakeholders through various outlets - interactive blog discussion, symposia and conferences, presentations and briefings to officials and the press, and through the public availability of the data on the completion of the project.
Specific beneficiaries include:
- The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with which we have contact through HM Ambassador to Egypt James Watt.
- The UK Ministry of Defence, with which we have contact via Lt-General Simon Mayall, Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East.
- The UK Department for International Development, with which we have contact through Sam Grout-Smith of the Arab Partnerships project at the British Embassy in Egypt.
- Egyptian and international media and newspapers, including Al-Hayat TV Network, Shorouk, Wall Street Journal, USA Today.
- British businesses with interests in Egypt and the broader Middle East who wish to understand the direction in which Egyptian public opinion is heading. We will engage with The British Egyptian Business Association, based in Cairo, with which we have contact through Executive Director Nadia Lamloum. We will also engage with the British Chamber of Commerce, with which we have contact through the Chief Executive, Dr Afnan al-Shuaiby.
- Financial and investment organizations with strategies in the region,. These include Chris Rokos, founding partner of the hedge fund Brevan Howard (who funded our 2011 survey) and Olivier Meyohas, Managing Director at Blackstone.
- Consultancies and business intelligence firms with strong regional interests who may wish to feed elements of our results to their clients. We would send briefings to firms such as Hakluyt, GPW, MENAS Associates, Stratfor, Observatory and Greenmantle.
- UK and international press and media, which we will contact and engage with the assistance of the Reuter's Institute for the Study of Journalism (a Centre in the Department) and the University Press Office
- The public, including citizens of the UK and Egypt and beyond, whom we will engage via the Department's highly successful blog, 'Politics In-Spires', our website where we will post working papers and the email lists and the lecture series of the British-Egyptian Society (chaired by Baroness Symons) on whose Board project collaborator, Dr Elisabeth Kendall, sits.
We anticipate, therefore, making an immediate impact by presenting key headline findings to stakeholders and via the press within four months of the project's commencement. Impact will roll out across the duration of the project, as working papers are made available online, presentations are made to stakeholders about more detailed findings, as the blog builds a readership, and via the two final conferences. The project aims to make a long-term impact by establishing a lasting network of stakeholders interested in the further political, economic and security trajectories of Egypt, through the use of the survey data that we will make publicly available and through the dissemination of results of published academic papers that will be on-going.
Specific beneficiaries include:
- The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, with which we have contact through HM Ambassador to Egypt James Watt.
- The UK Ministry of Defence, with which we have contact via Lt-General Simon Mayall, Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East.
- The UK Department for International Development, with which we have contact through Sam Grout-Smith of the Arab Partnerships project at the British Embassy in Egypt.
- Egyptian and international media and newspapers, including Al-Hayat TV Network, Shorouk, Wall Street Journal, USA Today.
- British businesses with interests in Egypt and the broader Middle East who wish to understand the direction in which Egyptian public opinion is heading. We will engage with The British Egyptian Business Association, based in Cairo, with which we have contact through Executive Director Nadia Lamloum. We will also engage with the British Chamber of Commerce, with which we have contact through the Chief Executive, Dr Afnan al-Shuaiby.
- Financial and investment organizations with strategies in the region,. These include Chris Rokos, founding partner of the hedge fund Brevan Howard (who funded our 2011 survey) and Olivier Meyohas, Managing Director at Blackstone.
- Consultancies and business intelligence firms with strong regional interests who may wish to feed elements of our results to their clients. We would send briefings to firms such as Hakluyt, GPW, MENAS Associates, Stratfor, Observatory and Greenmantle.
- UK and international press and media, which we will contact and engage with the assistance of the Reuter's Institute for the Study of Journalism (a Centre in the Department) and the University Press Office
- The public, including citizens of the UK and Egypt and beyond, whom we will engage via the Department's highly successful blog, 'Politics In-Spires', our website where we will post working papers and the email lists and the lecture series of the British-Egyptian Society (chaired by Baroness Symons) on whose Board project collaborator, Dr Elisabeth Kendall, sits.
We anticipate, therefore, making an immediate impact by presenting key headline findings to stakeholders and via the press within four months of the project's commencement. Impact will roll out across the duration of the project, as working papers are made available online, presentations are made to stakeholders about more detailed findings, as the blog builds a readership, and via the two final conferences. The project aims to make a long-term impact by establishing a lasting network of stakeholders interested in the further political, economic and security trajectories of Egypt, through the use of the survey data that we will make publicly available and through the dissemination of results of published academic papers that will be on-going.
Description | All Party Parliamentary Group, presentation & written paper on urgent need for Arabic expertise for research & security |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Briefind papers FCO Minister for the Middle East, Africa & Counter-Terrorism |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | MOD ongoing engagement on countering violent extremism |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | US-UK Policy Dialogue with FCO |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Rokos Foundation provided funding for an inital survey in 2011 and ongoing support for this ESRC project, including additional funds for workshops and conferences |
Amount | £30,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Rokos Foundation |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United States |
Start | 01/2011 |
Title | Integrated Egypt national surveys |
Description | Following on from a privately funded 2011 national survey, we have conducted two further national surveys of Egyptians in 2014 on the themes of support for democracy and electoral behaviour. All of the date from these surveys have been integrated into a single dataset. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | We have presented results of analysis to academic and practitioners. |
URL | http://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/egypt-democracy/ |
Title | Updated integrated Egyptian survey data base - 2016 |
Description | We conducted a fourth national survey following the Egyptian election of late 2015. Data from this survey have now been integrated with all previous surveys. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The new survey is being analysed in a number of papers for presentation at conferences and eventual publication. |
URL | http://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/egypt-democracy/ |
Description | European Parliament research network collaboration on the Middle East and North Africa |
Organisation | European Union |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Dr Hassan and Dr Kendall contributed to the research network their expertise on Egypt. |
Collaborator Contribution | Reciprocal discussion and exchange of information. |
Impact | Briefing papers. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | Review of Economic and Political Science |
Organisation | Cairo University |
Country | Egypt |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The Review of Economic and Political Science is a quarterly academic journal, published by the Faculty of Economics and Political Science (FEPS) at Cairo University starting mid-2016. It covers the fields of economics, political science, statistics, public administration and social science computing. It is the first English peer-reviewed social science journal in Egypt. It aims at gradually replacing the old Arabic only FEPS journal in an attempt to go international in the near future. In 2016, the Journal was given the highest ranking among regional journals (the region here is the Arab World) by the Egyptian Political Science Sector responsible for promotions of Egyptian political scientists to associate-professors and full professors. Titles of recent articles published by the journal include "The Military Coup: A Persistent Theoretical Challenge", "Ideological Factor in National Security Assessment?", "Islamic Bonds and their Role in Economic Development", "The Iranian Nuclear Agreement from A Legal Perspective" and "Female Wages in the Egyptian Textiles and Clothing Industry: Low Pay and Discrimination". The Journal website is http://reps.feps.edu.eg/. So far, it has published three issues of its first volume. |
Collaborator Contribution | Upon its start in 2016, it invited to its editorial board several international experts in different fields from several prominent universities, including Oxford, LSE, New York University, University of Southern California, and Hamburg University. Mazen Hasan was selected in 2015 as member of the Journal's editorial associate board (http://reps.feps.edu.eg/) that was tasked with formulating the Journal scope, strategy and board. This editorial associate board meets regularly to put further guidelines for the direction of the journal and additional plans to make it an international one. Stephen Whitefield agreed to join the Journal's editorial board in late 2015 (http://reps.feps.edu.eg/). |
Impact | Hassan, Mazen (2016) 'The Weakest Link: Structural Impediments to a Strong Parliament in Egypt', Review of Economics and Political Science. Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 133-156. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | 'Building Inclusive and Pluralistic Systems Post-Arab Spring |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Public event on 'Building Inclusive and Pluralistic Systems Post-Arab Spring, organised by Rice University's Baker Institute, Houston, Texas, January 2017 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Briefing to UK military officials |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | A Egypt debate at the Army and Navy Club in London on "Is Media Reporting on Religious Events in the Middle East Biased?'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Conference on Democracy in Egypt, Sept 2014 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Type Of Presentation | paper presentation |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The workshop involved presentations by international scholars and practitioners on the state of democracy in Egypt. Practitioners included diplomats, high-ranking military officers, and business/banking leaders. The event has is being made available as a podcast with further speakers to be added as consent forms are returned. Update: two practitioner presenters at this event have taken up leading positions in Egypt: Governor of the Egyptian Central Bank; Leader of the Majority Coalition in the current parliament. Following the event, slides from the research team's presentation was requested by a number of UK government agencies, including the FCO, Department for Defense and DfID. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
URL | http://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/index.php/podcasts/seminar-democracy-in-contemporary-egypt.html |
Description | Conference on Islamism and Politics in Egypt, March 2015 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | An international conference to present our own research to a wide audience of academics, policy makers and practitioners, including the Bishop of the Coptic Church who gave the keynote speech. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Conference on Politics in Egypt Since the Fall of Mubarak, Oct 2016 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Over 80 attendees signed up for this conference - a large number of postgraduate students, but also policy-makers, media practitioners and members of the public. Nine presentations were delivered by international researchers, including the presentation of this project's research findings relating to the role of the military in Egypt's transition. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Foreign and Commonwealth Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentations to policy makers related to our research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014,2015,2016 |
Description | German Foreign Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Policy briefing informed by methodologies from our research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | House of Lords |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Policy briefing informed by the experience of conducting research for our project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Media briefings |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Forty media interviews on aspects of the Middle East for TV channels including BBC World, BBC 2, CNN, Al Jazeera English and Arabic, France 24, national radio broadcasters in Europe and the Middle East and the international print media in Arabic, English and other European languages, including The Economist, The Independent, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Vice News, Der Spiegel, Die Zeit and Le Monde. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018,2019 |
Description | Ministry of Defence |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Policy briefings informed by project research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Presentation to NATO |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | NATO military personnel, including 8 Generals, attended two presentations delivered at Joint Force Command in Naples on research observations regarding the Arab spring (including Egypt). The presentations were followed by a lively hour of questions and answers. This led to a further invitation to present at NATO Defense College in Rome in 2016 on Middle East conflict hotspots. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Presentations to policy makers |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentations to: House of Lords House of Commons GCHQ SAS FCO NATO Joint Force Command, Naples |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016 |
Description | Presentations to press and media |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Interviews given to following media sources that draw on our research: BBC Radio 3, BBC Radio 4, Radio France, Axess TV (Sweden) and Arab News Network TV (Saudi Arabia) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015,2016 |
Description | Reuters Annual Security Summit |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Presentation of work from our project and broader observations on the Middle East region |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |
Description | Royal United Services Institute |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation informed by the results and methodologies of our research |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | The Challenges of Democratic Transitions in the Arab World |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | A Summer School in Copenhagen University on "The Challenges of Democratic Transitions in the Arab World" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Westminster Academy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | To engage state school sixth formers with Middle East research possibilities |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |