Building sustainable peacetime economies in the aftermath of war

Lead Research Organisation: School of Oriental and African Studies
Department Name: Development Studies

Abstract

This research addresses one of the most significant challenges facing conflict-affected borderlands across the world: how to build sustainable peace in the aftermath of war. Although there is a growing body of research on the political economy of conflict, we still cannot answer with any confidence the question, how do war economies become peace economies?

Many of today's development challenges surrounding migration, trade, violent conflict, transnational crime and poverty emanate from the margins of nation-states. Borderland regions are frequently 'black spots', embodying zones of persistent conflict and home to some of the world's most vulnerable and impoverished populations.

Illegal cross-border economies are deeply embedded in borderland regions of many conflict-affected countries, capitalizing upon weak state authority and easy access to lucrative foreign markets. In countries undergoing protracted war to peace transitions these illegal cross-border economies frequently continue even as conflict recedes, mutating into criminalized peacetime economies in ways that have significant adverse impact upon the stability and sustainability of peace, how states function and processes of economic development.

In response to these challenges, the aim of this project is to use the evidence base generated through the investigator's PhD research, which analysed the relationship between peace-building and illegal drug economies in Myanmar's borderlands with China, to improve understanding of, and policy responses towards, how to address instability, tackle drug production and promote inclusive health and development in conflict and drug-affected environments.

The research focuses specifically upon illicit drug economies for two reasons. Firstly, there is growing realisation that today's current drug policies are not working. The research will therefore position itself to influence changing global debates on illicit drugs and efforts to establish more effective counter-narcotic strategies, which prioritize poverty reduction and move away from the current highly securitized approach to the 'war on drugs'.

Secondly, drug economies pose a particularly difficult challenge to peace-building efforts. Drugs may continue to finance violent conflict; yet deals brokered around lucrative illicit activities may also serve to consolidate political settlements between former combatants and deliver greater stability. Drug cultivation has adverse health impacts by encouraging drug use among local communities; yet the drug economy is also a source of social protection by providing income support to farmers, ensuring greater food security and allowing vulnerable rural households to afford education and healthcare.

In ways that have not been done before, this research project will integrate political economy analysis of the role of drugs in processes of political bargaining during war to peace transitions, with a livelihoods approach that focuses on the relationship between drugs and the multiple coping strategies of rural communities. In doing so, the research aims to address important theoretical gaps in our understanding of the relationship between illicit economies, poverty and contested war to peace transitions, and engage proactively with policymakers and practitioners in order to develop more effective peace-building and poverty alleviation responses in Myanmar and other conflict-affected environments.

The research aims to generate impact through: (i) an interactive project website centred on the innovative use of 'pattrn', a new digital mapping tool that will be developed in collaboration with Myanmar research partners to present the changing dynamics of conflict and peace-building in Myanmar's borderlands across space and time; (ii) generating a strong track record of academic publications, including the conversion of the investigator's PhD into a manuscript targeting Amsterdam University Press.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Theoretical development
The correlation between continued drug production and increasing stability and government control in border regions of Myanmar unsettles prevailing theoretical frameworks surrounding the relationship between states and illegal economies, which view drug economies as a sign and a cause of conflict and state breakdown. This dominant theoretical paradigm offers no adequate means to explain, or engage with, drug economies in contexts of growing stability where conflict is declining and where states are consolidating authority.

My research has addressed this weakness by developing an alternative conceptual framework to understand how and why illegal economies can become embedded in processes of conflict reduction and state consolidation, drawing upon the political economy literature surrounding rent seeking, political settlements and development, and the political geography literature which examines the interactions between borderlands, resources and political processes. My work has developed a theoretical lens through which to understand how drugs become entangled in the messy and contested coalitions and brokerage agreements between governments and other powerful social groups that are fundamental to how political settlements are institutionalized and how space is made governable.

Methodological and empirical significance
By integrating political economy analysis of the role of drugs in processes of political bargaining during war to peace transitions, with a livelihoods analysis of the relationship between drugs and the coping strategies of poor rural communities, my research has developed an original and innovative methodology to analyse the relationship between drugs, peace-building and development.

My research findings were based on extended fieldwork conducted in Myanmar between 2011 and 2017, comprising more than one hundred interviews with representatives of armed groups, MPs, government officials, farmers (both poppy and non-poppy cultivators), traders, local, national and transnational businessmen, and NGOs and civil society organisations.

The research capitalized on the changing political climate within Myanmar, which enabled me to reach hitherto inaccessible regions, and represents one of the most comprehensive analyses to date of the relationship between the drug economy, state consolidation and the peace process.

Policy significance
The research demonstrated that donors and policymakers must engage more effectively with how drugs become embedded in processes of counter-insurgency, state consolidation and economic development - the same processes that are commonly assumed will reduce drug production. It revealed that rural development and counter-narcotic strategies will continue to be frustrated, unless policy-makers understand the central role that opium plays in the rural economy and the ways in which this multi-billion dollar industry has been co-opted by various actors to fulfill broader political objectives.

A key aim of this project has been to use this evidence base to enable policy makers to understand what the policy trade-offs are when deciding how to operate in drug-affected environments and to emphasize the importance of building greater coherence and 'joined-up thinking' so that counter-narcotics, peace-building and economic development programs do not under cut one another.

Please note, some of the research from this Award is still to be published. The following publications are currently in the pipeline:

1. 'Ploughing the Land Five Times': Opium and Agrarian Change in Myanmar's Ceasefire Landscapes
Journal article
Journal: Journal of Agrarian Change
Status: Under Review (Accepted subject to minor revisions)

2. Engaging with difficult development trade-offs amidst Myanmar's 'transition': Development Studies as a critical lens for exploring power and politics in post-2010 Myanmar
Book Chapter
Book Title: Social Transformations in India, Myanmar, and Thailand (Edited by: Chosein Yamahata, Donald M. Seekins, Makiko Takeda)
Status: Accepted
Publication Date: 2021

3. Brokered Rule: Militias, Drugs, and Borderland Governance in the Myanmar-China Borderlands
Journal Article
Journal: Journal of Contemporary Asia
Status: Under Review
Exploitation Route This research is especially significant to those engaged with understanding:

(i) the substantial inflows of overseas development assistance now being channelled to Myanmar following Aung San Suu Kyi's 2015 election victory and renewed efforts by the international community to support peace-building and drug reduction in the country's borderlands. How to foster political stability and support rural development away from drug production is becoming an increasingly urgent policy focus in Myanmar. My research has the potential to inform more effective development interventions to address these challenges in Myanmar and globally.

(ii) the changing nature of global debates on illicit drugs and efforts to establish more effective counter-narcotic strategies, which prioritize poverty reduction and move away from the highly securitized approach to the 'war on drugs'. Earlier this year the UN General Assembly Special Session on Drugs (UNGASS 2016) met to discuss drug policy reforms. This event marked the prelude to the next UN high level review on drug policy in 2019, which will shape drug policy for a generation. My research has the potential to influence these debates and to support more effective counter-narcotics strategies that support sustainable poverty reduction and stabilisation.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://drugs-and-disorder.org/
 
Description OVERVIEW My research aims to achieve a number of different non-academic impacts. Primarily these are: • Engaging with local, national and global audiences to inform on the drivers of illicit drug production in Myanmar and the impact that drugs have on: families and communities; armed conflict; structures of authority in conflict-affect areas; the nature of the Myanmar state; state-society relations • Engaging with policymakers working on drugs and development issues. There is growing recognition of the need for drugs policies to be more pro-poor and to align them with the SDGs. However, the evidence base to support such policy reform is patchy, politicised and contested. It is unclear how these fundamentally opposed policy fields - drugs and development - can be reconciled in practice. My research contributed to efforts to address this impasse. • Engaging with policymakers and practitioners working in fragile and conflict-affected states in order to better understand the drivers of violent conflict, the (un)sustainability of post-war transitions and the impact of external interventions on violent conflict. • Supporting students and early career researchers working on Myanmar I have already published academic work on these subjects, and have presented my research through various non-academic formats including: - public talks (e.g. http://www.lse.ac.uk/seac/events/2017/171013-myanmar-panel/armedgroupsmyanmar), - Annual talks to more than 150 sixth formers on the current situation in Myanmar, as part of the schools day organised by SOAS and the Royal Society for Asian Affairs (RSAA) - think pieces (e.g. https://www.twai.it/magazines/opium-and-development-in-myanmar/) , - media articles (e.g. https://www.mmtimes.com/opinion/21334-how-myanmar-s-illicit-opium-economy-benefits-the-military.html ) - Extensive engagement with various UK government policymakers, multilateral organisations, and INGOs, outlined in detailed below. POLICY ENGAGEMENT My research findings have informed a growing number of policymakers working on Myanmar and on illicit drug economies, including the UK Government Stabilisation Unit, The World Bank, Christian Aid and NOREF, all of whom I have written reports for based upon my PhD research, which was funded by the ESRC. In September 2016, I was commissioned, with two other academics, by the UK Government Stabilisation Unit to undertake a major piece of research entitled, 'Securing Stable Post-Conflict Transitions: Elite Bargains, Peace Agreements and Political Settlements'. This resulted in an 80-page report, completed in February 2018, that is designed to have a major impact on shaping future UK government policy on engaging with fragile and conflict-affected states. It develops further the existing narratives in the UK's 2011 Building Stability Overseas Strategy, the 2015 Security and Defence Review and DFID's 2017 Building Stability Framework. This report has already significantly shaped the ongoing revision of the existing UK Approach to Stabilisation (2014). The analytical framework which underpins this report is directly informed by my PhD research, especially its engagement with political settlements analysis and its emphasis upon the need for policymakers to understand how borderland dynamics shape post-war transitions. Alongside the report, I have also presented the research findings at seminars within DFID and the SU and to a large audience (100+) of DFID and FCO representatives at the 'The Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) Lessons workshop' in London in July 2017. This included providing a case study of my own research on Myanmar. In 2018, the findings developed in this research project have directly impacted upon the UK Government's Approach to Stabilisation", which sets out guidelines for policy makers and practitioners engaged in efforts to stabilise violent conflict across the world. In 2019, I delivered a talk to DFID and FCO staff on Myanmar's post-2010 reforms and prospects for the country's peace process. This drew directly upon research conducted on this award. In 2020, I delivered a 'Masterclass' for staff in the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) analysing the limitations in the country's peace process and the causes of renewed armed conflict. Again, this drew directly upon research conducted on this award. WIDER PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT Within Myanmar, an edited volume by Dr Mandy Sadan entitled 'War and Peace in borderlands of Myanmar- to which I contributed a chapter - has been used as evidence by the People's Tribunal on Myanmar designed to support the country's peace process by drawing attention to the ongoing violence faced by people in Myanmar despite the initiation of the country's peace process. See: http://tribunalonmyanmar.org/2017/03/02/war-and-peace-in-the-borderlands-of-myanmar-the-kachin-ceasefire-1994-2011-edited-by-mandy-sadan-nias-press-copenhagen-2016-540-pages/ I also co-organised the Oxford-SOAS Graduate Student Conference in May 2017 and will be doing so again in 2018. This brought together 37 graduate students from Myanmar, the UK, Europe, US, Australia and Korea who are working on Myanmar to provide a forum in which students were able to receive detailed feedback on their work across twelve panel discussions. Details of the event can be found here: https://teacircleoxford.com/2017/06/09/reflections-on-the-soas-oxford-graduate-student-conference-part-i/ In 2018, the research findings from my Post-doctoral Research Fellowship underpinned two articles I published in Accord, a journal produced by Conciliation Resources, an international organisation committed to stopping violent conflict and creating more peaceful societies. Conciliation Resopurces' Accord publication series informs and strengthens peace processes by documenting and analysing the practical lessons and innovations of peacebuilding. Accord examines specific conflicts and common peacebuilding themes, and presents the experiences and insights of local and international experts, as well as people affected by conflict. This has enabled my research to reach a wider audience of policymakers and practitioners. The research networks and partnerships developed in this project, especially with Myanmar research organisations, continue to underpin my current work. For example Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN) and Kachinland Research Centre (KRC) - two organisations with which I worked during this grant are now partners on a major GCRF research project led by SOAS entitled 'Drugs & (dis)order: building peacetime economies in the aftermath of war' (ES/P011543/1). This has had a direct impact on supporting research collaborations and institutional development of Myanmar research organisations.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Education,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description Ethics Panel Member, Evidence and Collaboration for Inclusive Development (ECID)
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
URL https://evidenceforinclusion.org/
 
Description Report for UK Government Stabilisation Unit: 'Securing Stable Post-Conflict Transitions: Elite Bargains, Peace Agreements and Political Settlements'
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Research consultancy undertaken for the UK Government Stabilisation Unit
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/elite-bargains-and-political-deals
 
Description Steering Committee member, Asia Foundation and FCDO project: 'Understanding the persistence of conflict in Myanmar's eastern borderlands'
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF): Growing Research Capability
Amount £7,000,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/P011543/1 
Organisation Research Councils UK (RCUK) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2017 
End 12/2021
 
Description 'State, Frontiers and Conflict in the Asia-Pacific' SOAS-University of Melbourne Research Project 
Organisation University of Melbourne
Department School of Government
Country Australia 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution £150,000 three-year Joint initiative between the University of Melbourne and SOAS. I am a core team member and lead researcher for the project's Sino-Myanmar borderland study.
Collaborator Contribution Three workshop (two in London and one in Melbourne) have facilitated knowledge exchange. Through fieldwork in the three case study countries, the project is also generating comparative empirical research.
Impact Three joint SOAS-University of Melbourne Workshops Two panels convened at the Asian Borderlands Research Network (ABRN) Conference 2016 in Kathmandu, Nepal.
Start Year 2016
 
Description DEEPEN: The Development-Environment-Peace Nexus in Borders and Borderlands 
Organisation United Nations Research Institute For Social Development
Country Switzerland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution - Member of the Advisory Group for UNRISD project: DEEPEN: The Development-Environment-Peace Nexus in Borders and Borderlands - Responsible for developing guidelines for policy makers and practitioners on how to respond to development issues in borderland regions - Commissioned to write a 10,000-word case study: 'Addressing multi-dimensional crises: Armed conflict, poverty, and environmental degradation in the Myanmar-China borderlands'
Collaborator Contribution - Incorporation into a comparative and collaborative research project entitled: DEEPEN: The Development-Environment-Peace Nexus in Borders and Borderlands - DEEPEN explores both theoretical and practical questions associated with the institutions, policies and actors that can transform borders from locations of antagonism, exclusion and environmental disruption to places of cooperation, inclusion, ecological integrity and, ultimately, peace. The purpose of the research is to generate new knowledge and a more integrated understanding of the development-environment-peace nexus in borders and borderlands. - Opportunities to present on panels at global conferences, including: 2022 PyeongChang Peace Forum in South Korea
Impact N/A - Final research not yet published
Start Year 2021
 
Description Conference Paper Presentation to 13th International Burma Studies Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Paper entitled: The Militia Fix: Ordering space at the margins of the Myanmar state. Presented at 13th International Burma Studies Conference: Distant Past(s), Latest News: Scholarly Insights on Burma/Myanmar, Bangkok, Thailand
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.13ibsc2018.com/
 
Description Conference Presentation at Conflict Research Society Annual Conference 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Two papers presented at Conflict Research Society Annual Conference 2018: Rethinking The Transition From Violence To Peace In Uncertain Times, Birmingham, UK
Date: 17-18 September 2018
Paper Title 1: Deals and Disorder: Securing and Sustaining Elite Bargains that Reduce Violent Conflict
Paper Title 2: The Militia Fix: Ordering space at the margins of the Myanmar state

This raised follow-up discussion with students and NGO practitioners regarding the nature of Myanmar;s current peace process and comparisons with other armed conflicts across the world
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://conflictresearchsociety.org/ourevents/crs-conference-2018/
 
Description Conference Presentation: The 2nd Burma Review and Challenges International Forum (BRACIF) 2018, Nagoya, Japan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Presented a Research Paper entitled, 'Ploughing the Land Five Times': Opium and Agrarian Change in Myanmar's Ceasefire Landscapes to an international audience at Nagoya University, Japan.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.agu.ac.jp/news/file/latest_2BRACIF%202018_%20ProgramPoster.pdf
 
Description ICAS Conference Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact I chaired a panel, entitled REFRAMING MYANMAR IN THE 21ST CENTURY at the International Convention of Asia Scholars (ICAS) Conference in Chiang Mai Thailand in July 2017. As part of this panel I also presented a paper entitled 'Violent geographies: Ordering space at the margins of the Myanmar state'. This led to a lively debate about the nature of Myanmar's transition with other researchers, postgraduate students and policymakers in the room.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://icas.asia/icas-10-chiang-mai-2017
 
Description Insights into Myanmar's stalled peace process: An FCDO Masterclass 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact An online 1 hour 'masterclass' for members of the UK government working on Myanmar to provide insights into Myanmar's peace process. This led to further follow-up discussions with members of the UK FCDO.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Oxford-SOAS Graduate Student Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Oxford-SOAS Graduate Student Conference in May 2017 brought together 37 postgraduate students from Myanmar, the UK, Europe, US, Australia and Korea who are working on Myanmar to provide a forum in which students were able to receive detailed feedback on their work across twelve panel discussions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://teacircleoxford.com/2017/06/09/reflections-on-the-soas-oxford-graduate-student-conference-pa...
 
Description Presentation to Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) staff on Myanmar's peace process 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 1 hour presentation to 15 members of DFID and FCO on the challenges facing the peace process in Myanmar. This event took place on 19th September 2018 at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to SOAS Myanmar Society 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Presentation on the history of Myanmar's armed conflict and the challenges facing the country's current peace process, given to the SOAS Myanmar Society. This drew directly upon the research on militias conducted in 2017 during by Postdoctoral Research Fellowship
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.facebook.com/events/604220776682834/
 
Description Presentation to UK government employees 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I gave a one hour presentation at a conference entitled: 'The Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) Lessons workshop'. This talk was I have also presented the research findings at seminars within DFID and the SU and to a large audience (100+) of DFID and FCO representatives at the 'The Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) Lessons workshop' in London in July 2017. This included providing a case study of my own research on Myanmar.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Talk to Sixth Form Students 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact I gave a 45-minute talk to more than 100 Sixth Form students, primarily from London and the Southeast, as part of an event organised by SOAS and the Royal Society for Asian Affairs (RSAA). This took place on 8th November 2017. The purpose of the event was to introduce students to subjects and concepts they may not have previously explored and to widen their horizons when considering university choices. In my talk I spoke about the current situation in Myanmar, especially around the Rohingya crisis and current peace process, and placed this in a wider historical framework of Myanmar's recent past.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.soas.ac.uk/centresoffice/events/08nov2017-annual-presentation-on-asia-for-sixth-form-stu...
 
Description Training to UK Government Staff working in fragile and conflict-affected contexts 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I have developed training materials and delivered training as part of the Stabilisation Unit's quarterly 'Conflict and Stabilisation' training course since 2018. This has had a direct impact on the training that the UK government now provides to staff across various government departments including DFID, FCO and MoD for how to analyse the drivers of armed conflict and the (in)stability of peace processes in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018