Understanding Recent Fertility Trends in the UK and Improving Methodologies for Fertility Forecasting

Lead Research Organisation: University of St Andrews
Department Name: Geography and Sustainable Development

Abstract

The last two decades have witnessed dramatic fluctuations in fertility levels, which were not predicted by demographers or government statisticians: Fertility significantly increased in the first decade of the 21st century, whereas it has declined thereafter. These fluctuations have significant implications for planning and policy making, at both national and local levels. For example, the fertility increase between 2001 and 2012 led to more than 60 thousand additional births in the UK annually. The causes of the recent fertility dynamics are unclear. Some researchers attribute the recent fluctuations in fertility levels to changes in fertility timing - i.e. the postponement or acceleration of childbearing. Others emphasise the importance of changes in population composition or changes in childbearing behaviour in response to past policy changes and the post-2008 economic recession. Birth registration data used by government statisticians at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistical Research Agency (NISRA) inform us about the total number of births and aggregated fertility measures; however, they do not provide information about childbearing trends by parity (birth order), which is critical to understanding and predicting fertility trends. High-quality large-scale longitudinal data provide the opportunity to conduct a detailed analysis of parity-specific fertility; for example, to determine whether fertility has recently declined because of the (further) postponement of childbearing and increased childlessness among women or because of declining family size among mothers (e.g. fewer third births).

Childbearing is naturally a sequential process; decisions on having an additional child are likely to be evaluated on the basis of experience with previous children. Detailed analysis of fertility by parity will thus significantly enhance our ability to forecast future fertility. In this project we will harmonise census-linked administrative data from the ONS Longitudinal Study, Scottish Longitudinal Study, and Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, together with survey data from the Understanding Society study.

The project is thus novel in that it uses data from the all four UK constituent countries; focuses on the analysis of childbearing trends by birth order, and brings together experts in demography and statistical forecasting to develop better methods for fertility forecasting.

First, we will calculate annual parity-specific fertility rates by UK country to determine how much changes in fertility levels are attributable to the changes in first, second, third or fourth births. We will then adjust fertility rates for characteristics of that population (e.g. place of birth, educational level) to determine how much a change in fertility levels in the UK over time is attributable to changes in population composition, and how much to changes in childbearing behaviour, possibly as a result of changing policies and economic environment. Finally, we will use information on parity-specific fertility to forecast future fertility levels in the UK using Bayesian methodology.

The project will bring together researchers from the Universities of St Andrews and Southampton, as well as government statisticians from ONS, NRS, and NISRA, to work on an important policy-relevant topic. The project will greatly improve our understanding of the factors associated with changing fertility dynamics in the UK and will show how existing large-scale longitudinal datasets can be used for cross-country analysis of fertility by birth order. It will also significantly improve the methodology used for fertility forecasts for the UK and its constituent countries. A better understanding of the present childbearing trends and forecast of the future developments will be critical to inform the planning of demand for various public services (e.g., nurseries, school places and housing).

Planned Impact

Who will benefit from this research?
The project will have both academic and societal impact. The major group of academic beneficiaries will be researchers from the fields of demography, sociology, political science, economics, human geography, social statistics, social policy, and others interested in measuring, explaining and forecasting human fertility. The major group of non-academic beneficiaries will be family, population and social policy analysts and government statisticians working at the statistical offices of the UK's constituent countries: the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA); and at local authorities. ONS and NRS are the project partners and NISRA and two local authorities are the key stakeholders (the Greater London Authority and Hampshire County Council). We also expect that people involved in decision-making in the areas of family, population and social policies will be interested in the results of the study. Finally, the results of the project will be of interest to the general public in the UK.

How they will benefit?
The project will provide rich and reliable information on childbearing dynamics in the UK; it will investigate the causes of changing fertility levels and will develop improved methodologies for fertility forecasting. The results of the project are, first, of interest of academic researchers as they will deepen our understanding of the reasons for significant short-term fluctuations in fertility levels in advanced economies and will provide better tools to analyse current childbearing trends and project future developments. Second, the proposed methodology for fertility analysis and forecasting will help the UK's statistical agencies and local authorities produce more accurate population projections at national, country and local levels. Improved projections are critical to estimate future need for hospital delivery, school places and demand for housing at national and sub-national levels. Third, the results of the project will be important for people involved in decision-making in the areas of family, population and social policies to understand whether and how family policies introduced in the UK in the late 1990s have shaped childbearing trends and patterns in the UK. Finally, it is equally important to inform the general public on the short- and long-term fertility trends in the UK and their impact on wider population and social trends (e.g. population ageing).

Publications

10 25 50

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Berrington A (2021) Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19 in Population, Space and Place

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Ellison J (2024) Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

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Petropoulos F (2022) Forecasting: theory and practice in International Journal of Forecasting

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Vasireddy S (2023) Education and Fertility: A Review of Recent Research in Europe in Comparative Population Studies

 
Description Objectives and background
The project examined the significant fluctuations in fertility levels in the UK in the last three decades, investigated their causes, and developed improved methodologies for fertility forecasting. Fertility rates declined in the 1990s, increased in the first decade of this century and have declined thereafter. Fertility dynamics have been similar in the four constituent countries of the UK, but the levels in Northern Ireland are higher than in England or Wales and lower in Scotland.

New knowledge
Our novel analysis of fertility trends by birth order showed that declining first-, second- and third-birth rates contributed to declining fertility in the 1990s. Changes in first-birth rates have explained most fluctuations in total fertility since the turn of the century. The timing of parenthood, i.e. the postponement of childbearing (in the 1990s and 2010s) or the stopping of it (in the 2000s) has been mostly responsible for the changes in first-birth rates. Second- and third-birth rates declined in the 1990s, but remained relatively stable in the first decades of this century. Finally, we observed relatively similar fertility trends and timing in England and Wales and in Scotland, but significantly lower second- and third-birth rates in Scotland.

The gradual postponement of family formation can be explained by the long-term economic changes that have led to increased uncertainty. Recent declines in first-birth rates have been fastest among those with the least education. Family formation among women in their thirties has become a norm among the younger generations. It is possible that the stability in second- and third-birth patterns has been supported by welfare state provisions and policies promoting the reconciliation of work and employment and the involvement of both parents in childrearing. Parenthood is postponed due to economic uncertainty experienced in young adulthood or due to normative factors, but when a couple is confident they can have a child they have a second and a third child.

Our research shows that there are only slight differences in fertility preferences between Scotland and England and Wales. There is some evidence of a greater use of sterilization as a method of fertility control in Scotland. Further research needs to examine the role economic factors play in fertility differences between Scotland and England.

New analysis methods
The project showed how complex census-linked administrative data can be successfully used to investigate annual fertility trends by birth order and compare the trends and patterns across the UK's constituent countries. The project demonstrated how a count data approach can be exploited to conduct comparative research when sharing individual-level data from different countries is not possible for legal and confidentiality reasons.

New projection methods
The project developed methods for fertility projections. We developed a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model within a generalized additive model framework, estimating smooth age-cohort rate surfaces for each birth order simultaneously. Our key innovation was the incorporation of constraints on parity progression ratios which increase forecast precision and accuracy. The application of the model in the UK shows a gradual fertility decline for the cohorts born in the 1980s and later with an increased share of zero- and one-child families.
Exploitation Route The project provided a detailed picture of childbearing trends and patterns by birth order in England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland over the last three decades and the causes of fertility changes. Future research should further investigate second and third births. What is going to happen to higher order births with the continued postponement of family formation? As women will have less time to have children, either the likelihood of having a second and third child will decline as our projections also show or women will have to have a second and third child sooner suggesting a significant reduction in birth intervals. What role will assisted reproductive technologies play?

The project showed that fertility preferences are similar in England and Wales and in Scotland, but women in Scotland are less likely to have a second and third child. The challenge for the policy-makers, especially in Scotland is to reduce the gap between desired and actual family size for parents. This may involve supporting young adults in their transition to labour market after finishing education and providing opportunities for affordable housing. For example, private renting should provide long-term security for those who cannot afford homeownership and/or wish to rent.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy

Healthcare

Government

Democracy and Justice

URL https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/
 
Description Beneficiaries and target groups We identified the following non-academic beneficiaries in our research proposal: family, population and social policy analysts, and government statisticians working at the statistical offices of the UK's constituent countries: the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the National Records of Scotland (NRS), and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA); and at local authorities. We also expected that individuals involved in decision-making in the areas of family, population and social policies will be interested in the project results. Finally, we expected the project results to be of interest to the general public in the UK given the importance of demographic topics in public debate. Pathways to impact Publication and conference presentations We prepared sixteen research papers: four review articles on recent fertility research and on the drivers of fertility change; seven on analysing fertility trends and patterns in the UK and their causes; and five articles on fertility projections (see Publications and the project website: https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/publications/). The project results were presented at major national and international conferences in population studies and applied statistics such as the Annual Meeting of the British Society for Population Studies (2021, 2022, 2023); Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (2023); Royal Statistical Society (RSS) International Conference (2022); European Population Conference (2022); the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Conference (2021). In total, the team presented 28 conference papers (see Engagement Activities). Although research papers and conference presentations were mostly for academic audiences, government statisticians and decision-makers also attended these conferences and participated in the discussion of presentations. A selection of presentations is available on the project website: https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/presentations/. We also prepared two policy briefs: one on childbearing trends by marital status in the UK and another on the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility in the UK. Stakeholder events In collaboration with the Scottish Government Population Team, the project team organised a workshop on recent fertility trends and patterns (2022). Workshop participants included invited guests from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and the Finnish Population Research Institute (see Engagement Activities). We also discussed our research with UK government Permanent Secretaries and National Statistician (2021); contributed to the National Population Projections Expert Advisory Group activities (2021); and presented our projection model at the ONS DMEG (Demographic Methods Expert Group) meeting (2021) (see Influence on Policy, Practice, Patients & the Public). Capacity building We organised two training workshops for government statisticians and academic and non-academic researchers on how to estimate trends in parity-specific fertility and how to conduct projections using information on birth order (September-October 2022). In total, 142 people participated in the two workshops (see Engagement Activities). Media The project has had significant media impact - including the research being discussed on the BBC Radio 4 PM programme, in The Telegraph, The Times, The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Independent, The Scotsman, and The Observer. Please see the links on the project webpage: https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/impact/. Impact The wider societal and economic impact of the project is related to two areas: a) better understanding of the drivers of fertility change and differences across the UK's constituent countries; and 2) improved fertility projections. Our research showed, first, that recent fertility decline in the UK is much driven by the postponement of family formation among young couples potentially due to economic uncertainty. Second, we found that the gap between desired and actual family size is larger in Scotland than in England and Wales potentially because of economic factors. We have communicated these findings to decision-makers at the UK and Scottish Government levels (see Stakeholder events). Although we are not aware of any policy changes that directly reflect the project findings, our dissemination activities have certainly raised the awareness of the causes of fertility decline in the UK and of smaller family size among couples in Scotland. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces population projections in the UK at national and sub-national levels. These projections are based on aggregate fertility measures and assume that the trends in the UK's countries are identical, only the levels vary. First, we proposed a conceptual model, which considers childbearing as a sequential process and projects future fertility using information on the number of children individuals (already) have. Second, we prepared fertility projections separately for England and Wales and for Scotland. Although the projected trends are largely similar, our projections explicitly consider national contexts and thus increase accuracy of the projections. We have communicated our results to the colleagues at ONS and NRS and expect them to use our results when preparing official population projections. Our method helps ONS significantly improve their forecasting of the number of births by age and birth order, and hence project future need for and delivery of hospital services, school places and demand for housing. The project results are thus expected to contribute to the UK's wellbeing by improving national and regional planning for infrastructure, as well as labour force projections.
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal

Policy & public services

 
Description Contribution to the National Population Projections Expert Advisory Group meeting
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Made an intellectual contribution to population projection by ONS.
 
Description Discussion with UK government Permanent Secretaries and National Statistician
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Presentation at the monthly ONS meeting on 'Combining data sources to develop a Bayesian projection model for England and Wales fertility'.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Title Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model 
Description The project developed a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model within a generalized additive model framework, estimating smooth age-cohort rate surfaces for each birth order simultaneously. The key innovation was the incorporation of constraints on parity progression ratios which increase forecast precision and accuracy. 
Type Of Material Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The application of the model in the UK shows a gradual fertility decline for the cohorts born in the 1980s and later with an increased share of zero- and one-child families. We have communicated our results to the colleagues at ONS and NRS and expect them to use our results when preparing official population projections. 
URL https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095
 
Title Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model 
Description The project developed a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model within a generalized additive model framework, estimating smooth age-cohort rate surfaces for each birth order simultaneously. The key innovation was the incorporation of constraints on parity progression ratios, which increase forecast precision and accuracy. 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The project prepared fertility projections separately for England and Wales and for Scotland. The method helps ONS significantly improve their forecasting of the number of births by age and birth order, and hence project future need for and delivery of hospital services, school places and demand for housing. 
URL https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095
 
Title Method to compare fertility rates by parity across countries 
Description This method proposes a way of comparing fertility rates across countries when individual-level data cannot be released to another country for comparative analysis. The approach is as follows: The individual-level data are used to calculate aggregated event-time (or occurrence-exposure) tables for each country, which are aggregated by different combinations of socio-demographic variables; the country files are then merged into one common database and the data are analysed by using a Poisson regression model. 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Other researchers have been interested in the method. The method was first applied in 2017; now we show its use in a different context. 
 
Title Code to replicate 'Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model' 
Description Code to replicate 'Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model' Joanne Ellison, Ann Berrington, Erengul Dodd, & Jonathan J. Forster (2023). Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, qlad095. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2023 
Impact We are not aware of any use of the code, but we expect that the ONS population projection team will benefit from the proposed approach. 
URL https://zenodo.org/records/8364164
 
Description Invited presentation at National Records of Scotland, 20 February 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact At this Seminar, Ann Berrington (with input from Kerry Miller) presented a talk on 'Understanding fertility trends in the constituent countries of the UK: Existing knowledge and unanswered questions'. The talk took place in Ladywell House, Edinburgh. The main aim of the talk was to introduce FertilityTrends, a new ESRC-funded project, to a wider audience. Also to provide an overview of the project, the team involved and stakeholder input, and to reach out to those who may be able to provide further insight.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL http://www.cpc.ac.uk/activities/full_events_calendar/518/CPC_Seminar__Understanding_fertility_trends...
 
Description Poster at the IUSSP International Population Conference, December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Bernice Kuang shared a poster 'Cross-national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales and Scotland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL http://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/files/2021/12/Cross-national-differences-in-the-use-of-co...
 
Description Poster at the Population Association of America (PAA) Conference in New Orleans, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Prof Hill Kulu presented a poster on 'Fertility Trends by Birth Order in Britain: The Comparison Between England and Wales, and Scotland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://submissions.mirasmart.com/PAA2023/Itinerary/PresentationDetail.aspx?evdid=2124
 
Description Poster at the Population Association of America (PAA) Conference in New Orleans, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Bernice Kuang presented a poster on 'The Changing Educational Gradient of Fertility in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://submissions.mirasmart.com/PAA2023/Itinerary/PresentationDetail.aspx?evdid=2106
 
Description Poster at the Population Association of America (PAA) Conference in New Orleans, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Sarah Christison presented a poster on 'Understanding the Realization of Jointly Held Residential Mobility and Fertility Intentions: How Has the Sequencing of Intention Fulfillment Changed Over Time?'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://submissions.mirasmart.com/PAA2023/Itinerary/PresentationDetail.aspx?evdid=2068
 
Description Presentation at Steps to University for Mathematical Students (SUMS) outreach event, 7 June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison gave a talk at the University of Southampton about her background and research, presenting work on parity-specific fertility projections, to 15/16 year-old students from the local area who were in the process of choosing their A Levels. The goal was to introduce high school students to young female role models who have studied Mathematics and are now working in a mathematical role, to inspire and encourage students to study Maths at A Level and subsequently at university.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the 4th Annual Academy of the International Max Planck Research School, 13 December 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Professor Hill Kulu presented 'Fertility trends by birth order in Britain: The comparison between England and Wales, and Scotland' at the 4th Annual Academy of the International Max Planck Research School (Population, Health, Data Science) in Rostock on 13 December 2022.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS), 11 September 2023 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Sarah Christison presented on 'Fertility trends and changing housing contexts in Scotland: A longitudinal analysis'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS), 6 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Bernice Kuang presented on 'Educational differences in childbearing by parity: A cross-national comparison of England & Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS), 7 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Hill Kulu presented on 'Fertility trends by birth order in Britain: The comparison between England and Wales, and Scotland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS), 7 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on "Improving methods for fertility forecasting through the incorporation of parity information", which inspired some questions and discussion afterwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/international-development/research/british-society-for-population-studies/Asse...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies (BSPS), 7 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Sarah Christison presented on 'Understanding the realization of jointly held residential mobility and fertility intentions: How has the sequencing of intention fulfilment changed over time?'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, 14 September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Sarah Christison presented on 'Moving home or having a baby: what comes first? Understanding the realisation of jointly held childbearing and mobility intentions in UK'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studie...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, 14 September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Bernice Kuang presented on 'Cross-national differences in the use of contraception and abortion services between England, Wales and Scotland'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studie...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, 15 September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Ann Berrington presented on 'Recent trends in UK fertility and scenarios for impact of COVID-19'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studie...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, 15 September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on 'Combining data sources to develop a Bayesian fertility projection model for England and Wales'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studie...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, 15 September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Hill Kulu presented on 'Two decades of fertility fluctuation in Great Britain'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/social-policy/research/Research-clusters/british-society-for-population-studie...
 
Description Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, September 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Berrington, A., et al. Using vital registration data to understand differences in childbearing patterns between the four countries of the UK. (Presented at British Society for Population Studies conference, September 2020.) For submission to an international journal.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at the European Population Conference (EPC), 1 July 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Bernice Kuang presented 'Changing Educational Patterns of Childlessness in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://epc2022.eaps.nl/abstracts/210842
 
Description Presentation at the European Population Conference (EPC), 2 July 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on "Improving methods for fertility forecasting through the incorporation of parity information", which inspired some questions and discussion afterwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://epc2022.eaps.nl/abstracts/210815
 
Description Presentation at the IUSSP International Population Conference, 10 December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Ann Berrington presented on 'Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85Va-nwFCf4
 
Description Presentation at the IUSSP International Population Conference, 6 December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on 'Improving methodology for fertility forecasting through the incorporation of individual-level data and population-level parity information'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgXgnpI5Eeg
 
Description Presentation at the IUSSP International Population Conference, 7 December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Hill Kulu presented on 'Two decades of fertility fluctuation in Great Britain'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Lg7TJIhSg
 
Description Presentation at the Nordic Demographic Symposium, 11 June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Sarah Christison presented on 'Fertility Behaviour and the Residential Context: a longitudinal analysis of fertility trends in Scotland'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://nds2021.demografi.no/
 
Description Presentation at the Nordic Demographic Symposium, 9 June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Bernice Kuang presented 'Changing Educational Patterns of Childlessness in the United Kingdom: A Comparison of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://nds2021.demografi.no/
 
Description Presentation at the Nordic Demographic Symposium, 9 June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on "Improving methods for fertility forecasting through the incorporation of parity information", which inspired some questions and discussion afterwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL http://nds2021.demografi.no/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/NDS_2022_booklet_0806_corr.pdf
 
Description Presentation at the Pandemic Babies Conference, 14 December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Ann Berrington presented on 'Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.demogr.mpg.de/mediacms/16381_main_Berrington%20Scenarios%20Pandemic%20Babies%20presentat...
 
Description Presentation at the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) International Conference, 15 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Joanne Ellison presented on "Projecting UK Fertility by Parity using Bayesian Generalized Additive Models", which inspired some questions and discussion afterwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/#/event/2726/submission/127
 
Description Talk at the Population Association of America (PAA) Conference in New Orleans, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Joanne Ellison presented on 'Can Incorporating Parity Information Improve the Reliability of Fertility Projections?' inspiring questions and discussion.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://submissions.mirasmart.com/PAA2023/Itinerary/PresentationDetail.aspx?evdid=601
 
Description Training Workshop - Fertility Analysis by Birth Order - 30 September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact 83 people attended an online Training Workshop we hosted on 'Fertility Analysis by Birth Order'. The workshop introduced parity-specific fertility measures and methods to calculate fertility by birth order. It introduced data sources and demonstrated the calculation of fertility rates by parity using individual-level data. The majority of the demonstrations were performed in R and relevant code was made available. The workshop was aimed at national and local government statisticians, social and demographic researchers, and others interested in the methods of fertility measurement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/training-workshops/fertility-analysis-by-birth-order/
 
Description Training Workshop - Parity-specific Fertility Projections - 7 October 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact 59 people attended an online Training Workshop we hosted on 'Parity-specific Fertility Projections'. The workshop summarised existing fertility projection methods and introduced data sources and a method that can be used to obtain Bayesian parity-specific fertility projections. This methods were demonstrated in a practical session. The workshop was aimed at national and local government statisticians, particularly those who contribute to population projections; social and demographic researchers; and others interested in the application of sophisticated statistical methods to demographic forecasting.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://fertilitytrends.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/training-workshops/parity-specific-fertility-projections...
 
Description Workshop with Scottish Government - 29 November 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact On 29 November 2022, we held a successful collaborative workshop on 'Attitudes to Family Formation' and fertility in Scotland with colleagues from the Population and Migration Policy Unit at the Scottish Government. They presented the results of their (quantitative) analyses; this was complemented with qualitative research on ideal family size and fertility intentions in Scotland. Elspeth Graham then summarised our results and led subsequent discussions. Both sides benefited from the meeting and agreed to continue discussions. Other workshop participants included invited guests from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and the Finnish Population Research Institue.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022