ORA (Round 5) Understanding Climate adaptation policy lock-ins: A 3 x 3 approach
Lead Research Organisation:
University of East Anglia
Department Name: Politics Philosophy Lang & Comms Studies
Abstract
Adapting to worsening impacts of climate change is one of the biggest global challenges. Yet, limited action on the part of public authorities still prevails; institutions, infrastructures, technologies and societal behaviours appear resistant to change. Understanding this gap requires better knowledge of the way societies are governed, but the existing literature often overlooks this, going no further than describing 'barriers to change'. Better explaining what we term 'lock-ins' requires uncovering the dynamics that create and sustain them. That is the aim of this original and cross-disciplinary study. Taking an empirical, but theoretically reflective, approach, it examines three policy sectors central to climate adaptation - water management, health care, and biodiversity and nature conservation - in three countries: Germany, Netherlands and the UK. Although in principle all three are well equipped to deal with climate adaptation, each is subject to lock-in. The project will use a mixed methods approach to understand why lock-ins arise and persist in each instance, and will employ Qualitative Comparative Analysis to better understand the dynamics of lock-ins as they affect climate adaptation. It will confront observed (in)action with different approaches for explaining lock-ins, advance conceptual and empirical understanding of how lock-ins emerge and endure, and use the findings to provide informed recommendations for the design of more effective adaptation policies.
Planned Impact
See 'Academic Beneficiaries'
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| John Turnpenny (Principal Investigator) | |
| Tim Rayner (Co-Investigator) |
Publications
Adapt-Lockin Project
(2022)
Briefing no. 1: An introduction to lock-ins and how these contribute to climate adaptation gaps
Groen L
(2022)
Re-examining policy stability in climate adaptation through a lock-in perspective
in Journal of European Public Policy
Jager N
(2022)
New challenges and established policy fields - Assessing stability and change in climate adaptation policy through a lock-in perspective / Neue Herausforderungen in etablierten Politikfeldern - Eine Analyse von Stabilität und Wandel in der Klimaanpassungspolitik anhand einer Lock-in-Perspektive
in dms - der moderne staat - Zeitschrift für Public Policy, Recht und Management
| Description | This project has made a major contribution to better explaining limited action to adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change. It has focussed on what we term 'lock-ins' in climate adaptation, and better understanding the dynamics that create and sustain them . Our research questions were: 1. Identification and attribution - To what extent are lock-in dynamics responsible for observed adaptation gaps? 2. Evolution - How do lock-in dynamics form, persist and evolve over time? Under what conditions do these dynamics flourish? 3. Comparison - How do lock-in dynamics compare across different problem domains, within and between countries? 4. Transformation - How can an understanding of lock-in dynamics inform 'unlocking strategies' to accelerate adaptation action? Key achievements include: 1) Data set We have gathered a rich data set from eighteen European case studies. These are six problem domains central to climate change adaptation - (i) coastal adaptation, (ii) water scarcity, (iii) forestry, (iv) biodiversity and nature conservation, (v) mental health and (vi) heatwaves as health threat - in three countries: Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. Data comprise elite interviews (c 60 per country), policy document analysis (200+ per country). 2) Analytical framework We have developed a novel analytical framework for: i) Identifying lock-ins, ii) Characterising lock-ins: identifying mechanisms and characterising their dynamic effects, iii) assessing intensity and impact of lock-ins, and iv) informing interventions to unlock or reconfigure pathways. We have applied the framework to our case studies. 3) Development of comparative methods We have established a framework for conducting Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) for comparing across the eighteen cases . QCA is an analytical method that identifies patterns of conditions which lead to a certain outcome, in our case the adaptation gap, that we try to explain through different lock-in paths/patterns (normalisation, coalition-building, capacity-building, asset accumulation) 4) Analytical advances Through our systemic perspective we have made a major contribution to the climate adaptation governance debate, moving beyond analysis of barriers to adaptation. We have critically assessed the concept of lock-in and its application to climate change adaptation, especially in comparison with climate change mitigation lock-ins, illuminating the relationship between mitigation and adaptation. More generally, our dynamic perspective on policy stability, including explicitly political considerations, has potential applications to other case studies within climate adaptation and beyond, in other parts of the world, and to scholarship on theories of policy process . The project has already resulted in several peer-reviewed publications, and promising engagement activities (see appropriate sections of ResearchFish reporting). Further publications are in preparation (see below on ways the findings may be used). |
| Exploitation Route | Academic routes - see above Key Achievements. Publications are still in preparation. These include an edited book which will present details of our case studies, and theoretical and empirical advances. The first six chapters will be submitted to a publisher for consideration as soon as possible in 2024. Non-academic routes: Promising engagement activities with a range of organisations so far are detailed in the above ResearchFish section. These have the chance of leading to meaningful impact, including understanding how we may break lock-ins and close the adaptation gap. Our first priority is completing academic publications, as well as keeping contacts already made and developing new ones. |
| Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Construction Education Environment Healthcare Government Democracy and Justice Other |
| URL | https://adaptlockin.eu/ |
| Title | Comparative analysis framework |
| Description | We have established a framework for conducting Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) for comparing lock-in drivers/outcomes across countries. Initial results have revealed useful insights. These have been presented at conference events, and will be published as a chapter in our edited book, and a separate journal article. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2022 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | Adapting and applying this well-established method to our cases is a key basis for our comparative analysis. |
| Title | Interview Protocol |
| Description | Our interview protocol for eliciting stakeholders' perceptions of lock-in dynamics has been used throughout data collection. This has been deposited with the UK Data Service. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Interviews have been completed using the protocol |
| Title | Interview transcripts |
| Description | Data collection WP2 (Empirical research) is complete - the UK case run to analysis of over 400 documents and approximately 64 interviews. We have a substantial body of data which is revealing rich insights into our case studies, and the value of the lock-in approach. Anonymised interview transcripts, or summaries where appropriate, have been deposited with the UK Data Service. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2023 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Data being analysed and written into publications |
| Description | "Closing the Climate Adaptation Gap and Unlocking Transformative Change", a free virtual conference held 24th - 25th March 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Organised and delivered this major international transdisciplinary (free) virtual conference. The conference attracted 313 registered attendees from at least four continents, including internationally-leading researchers and practitioners. Our research approach and emerging results were favourably received, reinforcing the usefulness of our approach, offering nuanced insights to develop the ideas further, reinforcing and forging new relationships with practitioners. Through interactive discussions and critical debates, actions and recommendations arose from the conference for overcoming the barriers and lock-in dynamics that continue to hinder adaptation efforts, while also highlighting opportunities for transformative change. These recommendations were incorporated a) into Adapt Lock-in "Briefing no. 1: Introduction to Lock-ins" available on the project website b) more substantively into the introduction and structure of the edited book in preparation (see other entries in this record) |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://adaptlockin.eu/2022/01/895/ |
| Description | "Tyndall Talks" Podcast: "Why is there an adaptation gap?" : Meghan Alexander and Tim Rayner, 27 July 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | As 7 Sep 2023: this specific podcast had 138 listens/downloads in 22 countries. Top 3 countries are UK, US, and Germany. Notes: in 2022, Tyndall Talks overall was at the top 20% of podcasts shared globally, top 25% most followed podcasts, was listened to in 31 countries, and gained 25% new followers. 10 Jan 2024: Tyndall Talks overall has had over 8,400 listens and is in the top 20% of Spotify podcasts on the environment/climate change. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/why-is-there-an-adaptation-gap/id1540079799?i=1000622393539 |
| Description | Invited Meeting with UK Defra Climate Adaptation team, 6 Sep 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation on Adapt Lock-in project and preliminary results to Defra Adaptation team weekly meeting. Advertised to around 35 staff, who could see the slides if they wanted to. Resulted in detailed discussion, and follow up emails - the team were receptive to guidance on identifying lock-in risks during policy development. They would be happy to see and comment on draft policy briefings. The project team will return to them with further project results as they emerge. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Invited Presentation to Local Government Association Independent Group Conference, 28 Oct 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presentation on climate change adaptation challenges, our project's research questions and preliminary findings. Slides subsequently shared with interested councillors. Attendees: Approx. 52 attendees in person and 19 online Audience was Independent councillors, Green Party councillors and councillors from the smaller parties at the annual LGA Independent Group Conference. The Local Government Association is the national membership body for local authorities; a politically-led, cross-party organisation that works on behalf of councils to ensure local government has a strong, credible voice with national government. It aims to influence and set the political agenda on the issues that matter to councils so they are able to deliver local solutions to national problems. The LGA currently has 333 of the 335 councils in England in membership. One of the LGA's focuses is on Climate Change Adaptation, especially after the exceptionally hot summer of 2022. The aim of the session was to look at adaptation and resilience and what council decision makers should be taking into account/doing. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.local.gov.uk/lga-independent |
| Description | Podcast: "Adapt or bust? Managing the impacts of climate change"; Lisanne Groen, 16 May 2023 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 3 July 2023: the episode has been listened to 58 times and the podcast has 89 subscribers. 31 August 2023: episode has been listened to 67 times. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=memcneQXM3c |
| Description | Royal Society, in partnership with Defra: Roundtable on research & innovation for climate change adaptation solutions, 12 Dec 2022 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Aim: roundtable to shape Defra's adaptation research needs, supporting the Third National Adaptation Programme, due for publication in 2023, and the subsequent fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. As part of the UK's legal requirements under the Climate Change Act 2008, these documents are critical for preparing the UK for the impacts of climate change. Adapt Lock-in Project representative attended as invited participant; shared Policy Briefing no 1 (see separate record). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | UK Climate Resilience Programme webinar series - "Explaining the adaptation gap in the UK - the hidden story of policy lock-ins" |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | 25 May 2022. Invited as part of the UK Climate Resilience Programme webinar series. Presentation and discussion on climate adaptation gap, understanding lock-ins, our project's research methods, preliminary findings, and implications. The discussant for the session was the Head of Adaptation in DEFRA. This led to an invited Meeting with UK Defra Climate Adaptation team (see separate record). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/ |
| Description | Website |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Project website has details of outputs, including conferences, interviews, papers, podcasts, presentations and project briefings |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021,2022,2023 |
| URL | https://adaptlockin.eu/ |