A Country Divided? Polarisation and identity after Brexit

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Government

Abstract

The EU referendum left Britain a politically divided country: 'Leavers' and 'Remainers' became new political and social identities that still shape how people view politics, and each other. Research over the last few years has demonstrated large social divisions along Brexit lines and a partial realignment of British party politics. Yet we still know very little about what shapes and reinforces these new Brexit identities: why are these identities so central for some people, but tangential for others? And are these identities fading, or changing in nature, now that Britain has left the EU?

Understanding and addressing the consequences of Brexit polarisation requires knowledge of its foundations. The greater the resilience of these identities, the greater the potential negative effects on democratic dialogue and legitimacy. To the extent that Brexit identities are rooted in a deeper societal divide about cultural values, such polarisation may persist far into the future, even as the meaning of the labels grows ever more obscure. Equally, now that Britain has left the EU and other issues have grown in importance, it also seems reasonable to expect that these identities may become less important to most people. Either way, we need to understand how these identities change, and crucially we need to know who remains attached to their Brexit identity.

As little is known about how new political identities emerge and evolve, Brexit provides an important case for understanding the development of political group attachments. Ultimately, we therefore want to provide new fundamental insights into the nature of political identities and how these identities change. Our core argument is that to understand the long-term impact of Brexit divisions on British society, it is not sufficient, although it is clearly necessary, to simply track how many people identify as 'Leavers' and 'Remainers'. Knowing the size of these groups is important, but we also need to track the strength, and emotional intensity, of these identities, and assess what affects how these identities alter over time. First, we are interested in how material self-interest affects identity change. To this end, we want to examine how real-world changes, specifically focused on people who we know are better off or worse off because of Brexit, affect political identities. Second, we want to apply insights from social psychology about the role of fundamental personality traits in shaping identity attachment and resilience. We do not intend to use personality traits to explain who is on one side or the other, but rather we will use these traits to explain identity retention and identity strength. Finally, we know that affective polarisation is related to 'filter bubbles' and 'echo chambers' as people become unwilling to engage (in person or online) with people from the other side. We therefore also want to explore how identities are retained, and again become entrenched, via the homogeneity of social, geographical and social media networks.

Empirically, we plan to answer these questions using a wide variety of state-of-art methods, including survey experiments, lab experiments, repeated cross-sectional surveys and panel surveys. Our results will contribute not only to the discussion about British society and politics after Brexit, but also to more fundamental debates on political identities and democracy. In terms of the 'Governance after Brexit' Call, our project directly addresses two of the Priority Areas, primarily (2) 'UK economy and society 'after Brexit' (Leave/Remain identities)', but also (3) 'The constitution, politics and policy 'after Brexit' (impact on political parties and democracy)'.

Publications

10 25 50
publication icon
HOBOLT S (2023) The Polarizing Effect of Partisan Echo Chambers in American Political Science Review

publication icon
Tilley J (2023) Brexit as an Identity: Political Identities and Policy Norms in PS: Political Science & Politics

publication icon
Hobolt S (2021) The Polls-Trends in Public Opinion Quarterly

 
Description The Brexit referendum created two new political tribes in Britain: Leavers and Remainers. In this project, we examine how the Brexit referendum transformed the EU issue into a salient social identity for voters with huge consequences for politics and society. Even though Britain left the EU in 2020, these group identities endure. The two tribes continue to regard each other with scepticism, and often hostility, and persist in perceiving the world very differently. Prior to the referendum, few predicted either the emergence or the resilience of these Brexit identities. After all, British politics was traditionally dominated by partisan identities rooted in deep class divides and maintained by socialisation in the family and workplace. By contrast, these new identities seemingly arose overnight and had little in the way of long-standing social pressures supporting them.

The project sets out to answer the questions of why Brexit identities emerged and how they have continued to shape British politics long after the referendum. We reveal the many consequences of these new identities for attitudes and political choices. We present rigorous, yet accessible, analyses of original survey data and experiments, as well as studies of the campaign, media coverage and political speeches, and thus provide a unique insight into a transformative period of British politics. Yet our project also tells a much broader story of how divisive social identities can emerge in response to political events and thereby fundamentally alter existing political allegiances.

Our project thus makes three main contributions. First, it presents an original and evidence-based account of how the Brexit referendum reshaped British politics. It situates Brexit in the context of five decades of debate and public opinion on UK-EU relations, and demonstrates how the referendum led to the emergence of new political tribes in British politics, with wide-reaching consequences for political attitudes and behaviour. Second, it contributes to our understanding of the role of social identities in politics more broadly. There is a burgeoning literature on social identities, yet most of it is focused on identities rooted in social categories, such as class or race. This book breaks new ground by exploring the emergence of an identity divide in the context of a significant political event. The case of the Brexit referendum gives us an example of both how new identities can become important and the circumstances required for their maintenance. This means that our work has important implications for other potential issue-based identity divides, especially those that may crystallize in the context of territorial referendums. Finally, the project contributes to the debate on affective polarization. While there is a large, and growing, literature on affective political polarization, almost all this work focuses on political partisanship. We demonstrates that events can create new labels which people embrace and then use to divide the world into 'us and them', with all the associated prejudice, bias and misperception that that division entails.
Exploitation Route The outcomes of this research project can be used by politicians, practitioners and the wider public to gain insight into how the Brexit referendum has influenced politics and public opinion in the aftermath of the vote, and to better understand the difficulties in reaching consensus on post-Brexit reforms. It can also feed into future discussions of referendums and how to design these direct democratic instruments in the best ways.

Moreover, the project also informs other academics working on public opinion and social identities. The survey data collected as a part of this project will also be made available for further analysis and use.
Sectors Government

Democracy and Justice

URL https://hobolt.com/research-2/#brexit-page-jump
 
Description UK in a Changing Europe partnership 
Organisation The UK in a Changing Europe
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The partnership with The UK in a Changing Europe has enabled us to disseminate our research more widely and more effectively to policy-makers, practitioners, journalists and other researchers through their frequent public events and their reports, which we have contributed to (see Dissemination events).
Collaborator Contribution The UK in a Changing Europe has invited us to frequent public events to disseminate our research and have asked us to publish in their reports on The State of Public Opinion.
Impact Example of outputs: - Podcast: UKICE (I Tell) on elections and public opinion (https://ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/elections-and-public-opinion-with-professor-sir-john-curtice-and-professor-sara-hobolt/) - Report: The state of public opinion: 2023 (https://ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/the-state-of-public-opinion-2023/) - Blog post: Anger, Brexit and losers' consent (https://ukandeu.ac.uk/anger-brexit-and-losers-consent/)
Start Year 2021
 
Description Blog post 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog post in "UK in a Changing Europe" website, which is aimed at providing high-quality and independent social science research on the broad theme of Brexit and its consequences.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/anger-brexit-and-losers-consent/
 
Description Chapter "Do 'Remainers' and 'Leavers' still exist?" in report 'British Politics after Brexit' 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact The title of this report - 'British Politics after Brexit' - invites a simple question: are we really living through a 'post-Brexit' era in British politics? James Tilley and I contributed to with a chapter entitled "Do 'Remainers' and 'Leavers' still exist?" on how identities have evolved and with what consequences.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/UKICE-British-Politics-after-Brexit.pdf
 
Description Keynote lecture: Annual Mackenzie Lecture, University of Glasglow 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Annual Mackenzie keynote lecture at the University of Glasgow, by Professor Sara Hobolt. The topic of the lecture was "Tribal Politics. How Brexit divided Britain".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Podcast on elections and public opinion 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Elections and public opinion with Professor Sir John Curtice and Professor Sara Hobolt
On this episode of UKICE (I Tell), Professor Anand Menon talks to Professor Sir John Curtice and Professor Sara Hobolt about the media and political discourse around polls, their predictions for the UK general election and what is at stake in the upcoming European Parliament election.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/elections-and-public-opinion-with-professor-sir-john-curtice-and-prof...
 
Description Presentation at British Politics after Brexit Conference 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Presentation of project findings at major conference, which brought together some of the best academic experts on public opinion from across the UK, senior politicians and journalists to explore the key questions facing British politics - including the current strategies and prospects of the political parties, and the way in which political identities and attitudes have changed in the last half-decade. The conference coincides with the launch of our new report 'Brexit and party politics in the UK'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/british-politics-after-brexit-conference-2022/
 
Description Presentation at Research Insights event. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Presentation in the public seminar "Research Insights: providing insights from the best social science for those who want to dig a bit deeper into what the research says."

The process of leaving the EU polarised public opinion across Britain. 'Leave' and 'Remain' became strong identities that exercised a powerful influence on political attitudes and choices. Do these identities continue to shape British politics after Brexit? How do they exercise their influence? Are they fading? Faced with new choices after leaving the EU and the trade-offs inherent within them, what package of options do people in Britain prefer. How do people want Britain to use sovereignty it has regained after Brexit?

The event built on two ongoing ESRC-funded research projects:

Professor Sara Hobolt will present on 'A Country Divided? Polarisation and identity after Brexit'.
Dr Ceri Davies will discuss qualitative research findings from 'How Does Post-Brexit Britain wish to Exercise its Sovereignty?' and Professor John Curtice will analyse results from that project's deliberative polls.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/research-insights-public-opinion-and-brexit/
 
Description Radio 4 documentary ('The kids are alt-right?') 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A BBC Radio 4 documentary series that featured both PIs discussing how partisanship shapes political attitudes. The series was released as five episodes from 15th January 2024 until the 19th January and then repeated on Monday nights from February 19th 2024 onwards. The radio programme was broadcast in the UK, and available on BBC Sounds, but also released as a podcast in the 'Seriously' series.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/m001vbsw
 
Description Sara Hobolt speaker at conference on public opinion 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact UK in a Changing Europe conference on the state of public opinion in Britain with a range of expert academics, pollsters and Westminster insiders discussing where the public stands on policies and parties, and present new public opinion research on education, ethnic minority voters, Brexit and the cost of living.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/british-politics-what-does-the-public-think/
 
Description Talk to Institute for Humane Studies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk to an American think tank (The Institute for Humane Studies) titled 'Tolerance in an Era of Divisions'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Talk to Institute for Humane Studies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A talk to an American Think Tank (The Institute for Humane Studies) titled 'Affective Polarization and Democratic Norms'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023