Going Global? Firms, Trade and Productivity After Brexit

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Centre for Economic Performance

Abstract

Brexit is the biggest change to the UK's external relations for at least a generation. Leaving the EU will lead to the introduction of new barriers to trade between the UK and the EU, while also creating opportunities for the UK to develop its own independent trade policy. This project studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade and economic performance. The analysis will consider how the UK economy is changing in response to Brexit and will provide estimates of the effect of Brexit on productivity, trade, output, wages and living standards.

A key contribution of the research will be the creation of a new dataset matching trade and production data at the firm level. Using this dataset, the project will analyse which firms, workers, regions and industries are most exposed to Brexit, how Brexit affects firms' participation in the global economy, whether COVID-19 alters how firms respond to Brexit and how changes in trade impact firm performance and productivity. The project will also develop a trade model of the UK economy to quantify the aggregate economic consequences of Brexit and evaluate alternative post-Brexit trade policies.

The project's findings will help policy makers and the general public understand the economic consequences of Brexit and will inform debate on UK trade and economic policy after Brexit. For example, the project will shed light on the costs and benefits of alternative trade agreements with the EU and other partners; what types of trade barriers are most important for UK firms, and; how the effects of Brexit differ across workers, firms, regions and industries.

Publications

10 25 50
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UK In A Changing Europe (2021) Brexit and Beyond

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UK In A Changing Europe (2024) The State of the UK Economy 2024

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Swati Dhingra (2022) Expecting Brexit

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Rebecca Freeman (2022) UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit

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R. Freeman; K. Manova; T. Prayer; T. Sampson (2022) The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned

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Dhingra S (2022) Expecting Brexit in Annual Review of Economics

 
Description The project's analysis of the trade effects of Brexit has been widely covered by UK media and has played an important role in shaping public understanding of the emerging consequences of Brexit for UK trade. In April 2022 we published the first product-level analysis of changes in UK goods trade under the TCA (UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit, CEP Discussion Paper 1847). The paper was covered by media including the BBC, Sky News, Times, Daily Telegraph, Guardian, Independent and Daily Mirror, as well as being featured on the front page of the print edition of the Financial Times. It also attracted substantial interest from UK policy makers and we have presented our findings to staff from HMT, HMRC, ONS, BEIS and DIT.
First Year Of Impact 2022
Sector Education,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Bank of England Special Topics Meeting on Brexit
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Going global CEP-Bank of England partnership 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution The project team has collaborated with researchers at the Bank of England to study the effects of Brexit on UK trade. Together we are writing a joint paper summarising our findings. Project team members have contributed to the design of the research project, data collection, data cleaning, econometric analysis, and writing the research paper. The project team has also presented our findings to Bank of England staff not involved in the project.
Collaborator Contribution Bank of England staff have contributed to the design of the research project, data collection, data cleaning, econometric analysis, and writing the research paper.
Impact Briefing to Monetary Policy Committee as part of Special Topics Meeting on Brexit.
Start Year 2021
 
Description BBC Radio 4 PM interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview with Thomas Sampson on Radio 4 PM programme about findings of UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit paper (26 April 2022)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Blog for LSE Business Review on project findings 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for LSE Business Review summarising the findings from our paper UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit. Blog also published by UK in a Changing Europe on their website.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2022/04/26/brexit-the-major-trade-disruption-came-after-the-u...
 
Description Cambridge Marshall Society talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Gave talk on "Brexit Economics" to University of Cambridge's Marshall Society. Audience of around 15 students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Centre for European Reform podcast on trade effects of Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Recorded podcast for Centre for European Reform summarising findings of project's research on trade effects of Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.cer.eu/media/cer-podcast-brexit-blame-britains-economic-woes
 
Description ESRC-GSR Actionable Insights presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented project findings at ESRC-GSR Actionable Insights Series Seminar on Internaional Relations and Trade. Online audience of around 170 UK civil servants from across government.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Economics Observatory trade data story 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article for Economics Observatory analysing changes in UK trade in January 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-do-new-uk-trade-data-reveal-about-the-impact-of-lockdown-a...
 
Description FT 4th anniversary story 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Quoted in FT story on 4th anniversary of Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.ft.com/content/78d3611e-a75f-4cf9-aa74-a6ac829d93b2
 
Description German media interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview with Tagesschau (Germany) about economic consequences of Brexit. Interview published online and broadcast on radio.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/vier-jahre-brexit-bilanz-100.html
 
Description Global Britain blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog using project findings to discuss UK trade policy. Blog published by Encompass and the LSE British Politics and Policy blog.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/global-britain-has-failed-what-next/
 
Description Independent article on economic costs of Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Sampson quoted in Independent article on economic costs of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-economy-cost-damage-b2491585.html
 
Description King's College Brexit panel 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Participated in panel discussion "Three years post-Brexit: Impacts on Britain and the World" hosted by the King's College London Politics Society. Audience of around 50 university and sixth form students.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description LSE Beverage report podcast 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson was interviewed by the Beverage Report podcast (a podcast recorded by LSE economics undergraduates) about his research on Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/community/the-beverage-report-podcast
 
Description Media coverage of UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit paper 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact UK Trade in the Wake of Brexit paper covered by BBC, Sky News, Times, Daily Telegraph, Guardian, Independent, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Daily Mirror, Daily Express and The Economist
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description More or Less interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on trade effects of Brexit for BBC Radio 4 More or Less programme, February 2023
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description NIESR Brexit workshop presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented project findings at NIESR workshop on The Economic Impact of Brexit. Audience of around 30 academics and policy makers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.niesr.ac.uk/events/nier-workshop-brexit
 
Description Newspaper article in Daily Telegraph 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/05/mystery-disappearing-imports-eu/
 
Description Newspaper article in FT 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.ft.com/content/beec0a22-dee2-4224-8881-a549d6324b86
 
Description Newspaper article in FT 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.ft.com/content/fbb70741-34cc-4f54-a66b-a2e4b9445f5b
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on economic effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-vote-cost-trade-eu-b1843018.html
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-disruption-gdp-economists-b1801692.html
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on economic benefits of a Pacific trade deal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-anniversary-pacific-b1870832.html
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trade-ons-brexit-imports-exports-b1846267.html
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on economic consequences of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/news-analysis/brexit-eu-uk-economy-impact-b2000324....
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on how TCA may effect UK trade
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-eu-export-boris-johnson-b1787338.ht...
 
Description Newspaper article in Independent 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson quoted in newspaper article on trade effects of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/business/exports-trade-brexit-figures-b1816407.html
 
Description Observer article on Brexit and trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Sampson quoted in Observer article on trade effects of Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/04/brexit-trade-perks-firms-business-department-leavin...
 
Description Presentation at EU Single Market conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation of project findings at European Commission conference in Prague to mark the 30th anniversary of the creation of the single market 7 December 2022
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/events/academic-conference-30th-anniversary-single-market...
 
Description Presentation of research findings to DIT 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation of project findings to Department of International Trade 26 May 2022. Staff from ONS, BEIS, HMRC & HMT also attended.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Royal Society of Edinburgh presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented project findings at Royal Society of Edinburgh 1st Scotland-Europe Initiative Workshop on Trade & Investment. Audience primarily Scottish government employees, policy professionals and media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://rse.org.uk/resources/resource/blog/how-brexit-disrupted-uk-trade-with-the-eu/
 
Description UK Trade Policy Observatory annual conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson discussed new research on how Brexit has effected UK trade as part of the UK Trade Policy Observatory's annual conference 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description UK Trade and Business Commission session 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson gave evidence to the UK Trade and Business Commission's first session on the Economic Impact of the UK-EU Trade Deal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.tradeandbusiness.uk/past-sessions/economic-impact-of-the-eu-uk-tca
 
Description UKICE State of the UK Economy 2024 conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Participated in panel discussion on "Britain's global economic and trade strategy" at UK in a Changing Europe conference "From research to policy: where next for the UK economy". Audience of around 70 members of the public
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/from-research-to-policy-where-next-for-the-uk-economy-conference/
 
Description UKICE blog Expecting Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe reviewing the academic literature on how Brexit affected the UK economy between the referendum and the start of the new UK-EU trade relationship.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/expecting-brexit/
 
Description UKICE blog January 2021 trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe analysing changes in UK trade in January 2021 - the first month of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/trade-after-brexit-the-initial-numbers/
 
Description UKICE blog TCA 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe summarising research on how the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the UK and the EU is expected to affect trade.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-trade-post-brexit/
 
Description UKICE conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented project findings at UK in a Changing Europe conference on economics of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/constitution-and-governance-in-the-uk-conference/
 
Description UKICE-CER panel on UK trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Thomas Sampson was part of joint UK in a Changing Europe-Centre for European Reform panel discussion on how Brexit has affected UK trade.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/brexits-economic-impact-early-evidence-and-future-prospects/
 
Description UKTPO conference presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation of project findings to UK Trade Policy Observatory annual conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022