Welsh Election Study 2021
Lead Research Organisation:
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
Department Name: Cardiff School of Law and Politics
Abstract
We propose to undertake a study of the Welsh Parliament election that will take place in May 2021.
It is already clear that this election will take place in a period of almost unprecedented social and economic turmoil. The Covid-19 pandemic is throwing government performance at devolved and state-wide levels into the sharpest relief, and the devolved elections will be the first major electoral test since the outbreak of the crisis.
Moreover, even if the political intrigue related to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been somewhat eclipsed by the public health emergency, many of the key questions that have convulsed UK politics since in 2016 remain unresolved and continue to profoundly affect Welsh politics. Labour's almost unprecedented, century-long grip on the Welsh electorate - the party has been the largest in terms of votes and elected representatives at every general election since 1922 and at every devolved election - is apparently under threat as never before. Welsh Conservatives performed very strongly in the 2019 general elections and Plaid Cymru, a party that has traditionally done better in devolved elections, has under its new leader rallied as never before to the cause of independence.
By any measure, therefore, the 2021 Welsh Parliament election promises to be particularly significant. The data generated by the study will make a major contribution to helping scholars understand the main factors - including perhaps the response to Covid-19 and Brexit - that shaped the outcome. Public opinion data will be collected via detailed surveys of voter attitudes conducted before the start of the official campaign, during the campaign period, and immediately after the election, with respondents interviewed at all three stages to explore individual-level attitudes and intended/actual voting behaviours.
The 2021 election will also be notable because voters will be choosing representatives for democratic body that not only has a new name (with the National Assembly having become the Welsh Parliament), but also enjoys extensive new powers as a result of the partial devolution of income tax, and which is being elected on the basis of a new electoral franchise as a result of the extension of voting rights to 16 and 17 year olds. To facilitate detailed study of these recent changes, the survey will oversample this newly enfranchised age group and will include questions designed to explore the way in which tax devolution shapes the campaign.
The research team is a combination of continuity and significant change. PI Wyn Jones was/is Director of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2019 Welsh Election Surveys and has been played some role in every election/referendum survey in Wales since 1997. Poole and Wincott are also part of the 2019 team. But they will be joined by Surridge who, although new to the Welsh Election Survey, brings both extensive relevant experience and new perspectives to bare. Also included in the team as a research associate is Larner, a former Fulbright scholar and author of the only doctoral thesis in recent years to focus primarily on elections in Wales.
A novel feature of the proposal is the extensive cooperation planned with teams submitting parallel proposals for Scottish and Northern Ireland Election Studies (PIs Henderson and Garry, respectively). This cooperation will be deeper than has ever been attempted in the case of Scotland, and in the case of Northern Ireland will be a wholly new development. The cooperation envisaged encompasses not only fielding common questions, but also a joint programme of capacity building.
It is already clear that this election will take place in a period of almost unprecedented social and economic turmoil. The Covid-19 pandemic is throwing government performance at devolved and state-wide levels into the sharpest relief, and the devolved elections will be the first major electoral test since the outbreak of the crisis.
Moreover, even if the political intrigue related to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been somewhat eclipsed by the public health emergency, many of the key questions that have convulsed UK politics since in 2016 remain unresolved and continue to profoundly affect Welsh politics. Labour's almost unprecedented, century-long grip on the Welsh electorate - the party has been the largest in terms of votes and elected representatives at every general election since 1922 and at every devolved election - is apparently under threat as never before. Welsh Conservatives performed very strongly in the 2019 general elections and Plaid Cymru, a party that has traditionally done better in devolved elections, has under its new leader rallied as never before to the cause of independence.
By any measure, therefore, the 2021 Welsh Parliament election promises to be particularly significant. The data generated by the study will make a major contribution to helping scholars understand the main factors - including perhaps the response to Covid-19 and Brexit - that shaped the outcome. Public opinion data will be collected via detailed surveys of voter attitudes conducted before the start of the official campaign, during the campaign period, and immediately after the election, with respondents interviewed at all three stages to explore individual-level attitudes and intended/actual voting behaviours.
The 2021 election will also be notable because voters will be choosing representatives for democratic body that not only has a new name (with the National Assembly having become the Welsh Parliament), but also enjoys extensive new powers as a result of the partial devolution of income tax, and which is being elected on the basis of a new electoral franchise as a result of the extension of voting rights to 16 and 17 year olds. To facilitate detailed study of these recent changes, the survey will oversample this newly enfranchised age group and will include questions designed to explore the way in which tax devolution shapes the campaign.
The research team is a combination of continuity and significant change. PI Wyn Jones was/is Director of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2019 Welsh Election Surveys and has been played some role in every election/referendum survey in Wales since 1997. Poole and Wincott are also part of the 2019 team. But they will be joined by Surridge who, although new to the Welsh Election Survey, brings both extensive relevant experience and new perspectives to bare. Also included in the team as a research associate is Larner, a former Fulbright scholar and author of the only doctoral thesis in recent years to focus primarily on elections in Wales.
A novel feature of the proposal is the extensive cooperation planned with teams submitting parallel proposals for Scottish and Northern Ireland Election Studies (PIs Henderson and Garry, respectively). This cooperation will be deeper than has ever been attempted in the case of Scotland, and in the case of Northern Ireland will be a wholly new development. The cooperation envisaged encompasses not only fielding common questions, but also a joint programme of capacity building.
Organisations
Publications
Wyn Jones R
(2022)
Understanding a Century of Labour Dominance: Social Science and the Puzzle of Voting Behaviour in Wales
in Transactions of the Honourable Society of Cymmrodorion
Wyn Jones R
(2021)
What about Wales? Brexit and the Future of the UK
in Discover Society: New Series
Description | Findings have been extensively used to inform public and political debate of political attitudes in Wales, as well as how attitudes in Wales compare to those in other part of the UK as well as further afield. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Cultural,Societal,Policy & public services |
Description | Bevan Foundation event on the 2021 Welsh election |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Presentation from WES team followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Briefing on Welsh Election Study research to the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (29/09/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This is an independent group established by the Welsh Government carrying out a major study into constitutional reform options. We supplied data on public attitudes |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Colleague Jac Larner presented Welsh Election Study research to the ITV News Conference (08/02/2023). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | This is a UK-wide gathering of the ITV's newsreaders and senior broadcast journalists |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Colleague James Griffiths presented Welsh Election Study research to a team from the House of Commons Library (07/03/2023) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | At their invitation we provided researchers from the House of Commons Library with an overview of political attitudes in Wales |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Colleagues James Griffiths and Ed Gareth Poole presented Welsh Election Study research to a delegation from the embassy of Japan including the First Secretary (08/03/2023) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We used Welsh Election Study data and analysis to provide an overview of political attitudes in Wales to a delegation from the embassy of Japan including the First Secretary. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Electoral Reform Society event on the 2021 Welsh Election |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Presentation by WES team followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Informal talk with FCDO official about priorities for new SoS for Wales (26 Oct 2022) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Contacted by FCDO official to discuss agenda for new SOS for Wales |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Meeting with FCDO official (5 July 2022) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Informal talk with FCDO official and then with that official and a Welsh Government Civil Servant |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Meeting and Evening Meal with Polish Ambassador and his team in Cardiff (23 August 2022) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Extended conversation with the Ambassador and 3 members of his team. They wanted to learn generally about post-Brexit governance across the UK, and more specifically bout attitudes towards the EU in Wales and in the Welsh Government as well as the involvement of Welsh Government in the development of new UK-wide post Brexit governance structures and their implications for Wales. I have had follow up dialogue in March 2023 about local government in Wales and the implications of the new Windsor Framework from the Polish Embassy team. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Meeting with Irish Consulate, Cardiff (8 Feb) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Meeting with the Irish Consulate Team in Wales about the Governance after Brexit programme |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | National Eisteddfod event on the 2021 Welsh Election |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation by WES team followed by Q&A session |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Online event presenting preliminary analysis from the Welsh and Scottish Elections Studies |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Welsh Election Study 2021 findings were mentioned/highlighted in the following publications: o The Economist o Western Mail/Wales Online (x6) o The National Wales o Nation.Cymru o BBC Sunday Politics (x2) o BBC Walescast podcast o Hiraeth podcast It is, however, hard to know how much of this was because of this particular event and how much was generated by our other engagement and dissemination activities |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Participation in Debate about Scotland's Constitutional Future 22 November 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The event involved sessions that will take the form of academic presentations followed by facilitated group sessions that will discuss the key questions using the data provided. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ukandeu.ac.uk/events/scotlands-constitutional-future/ |
Description | Presentation to DLUHC Union and Devolution Directorate (Cardiff Awayday 17 August 2022) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited presentation to DLUHC Union and Devolution Directorate away day in Cardiff. The DLUHC team was interested in exploring attitudes in Wales, including the Welsh Government, towards the changing framework for UK territorial governance after Brexit. The event took place during the Conservative leadership campaign, and the team anticipated an unsettled future for their work. Essentially, they work looking for ideas about how to make the UK government's work in Wales more effective. I was able to offer some suggestions, albeit constrained by what appeared at the time as the abrasive setting of political relationships between UK and devolved governments. In particular, I suggested a focus on offering to collaborate with the Welsh Government on at least one major infrastructure investment in Wales. Given the constraints on devolved capacity for major infrastructure work in Wales, there is scope to engender a more cooperative spirit between the governments in this way. Perhaps it could build on earlier work on 'city deals'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation to Plaid Cymru Annual Conference, March 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation of Election Study findings at Plaid Cymru Annual Conference, Cardiff, March 2022 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation to Welsh Liberal Democrat leadership group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation by WES team followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Presentations to DULHC' Constitution Group Analysis' Awayday in Cardiff (30 June 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Gave presentations on impact of post-Brexit governance changes on Wales and (with colleague) presented survey evidence from the Welsh Election Study to the DLUHC Constitution Group Analysis Section. That section conducts extensive survey work on attitudes to the Union. However, the framing of those surveys - typically looking to discover sources of support for the Union - means that it is problematic as a source of data on the pattern of public attitudes in Wales. The team showed great interest int he results from our more detached academic survey - especially as their evidence made the continuing electoral success of Labour in Wales difficult to understand. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented Welsh Election Study research at an event at the Pierhead building in Cardiff held to mark 100 years of Labour electoral success in Wales (15/11/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The event was attended by approximately 90 people including policymakers, journalists and members of the Welsh Cabinet and wider Senedd, including the First Minister Mark Drakeford |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented Welsh Election Study research to the Expert Panel on a Shadow Broadcasting and Communications Authority for Wales (07/12/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | We presented evidence on public attitudes to a Welsh Government body developing policy on broadcasting and media |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented Welsh Election Study research to the Government of Catalonia representative in the UK and his team (26/01/2023). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented Welsh Election Study research to the Government of Catalonia representative in the UK and his team |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Presention on impact of Votes at 16 to relevant Welsh Parliament (Senedd) staff |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Provided a follow-up presentation and discussion to the Independent Comission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (18/11/2022). |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This was a requested follow up meeting with the members and staff support member of an independent commission established by the Welsh Government to consider constitutional options for the future of Wales. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Quoted in Financial Times Article 'King Charles seeks to fortify thus with tour of nations 11 September 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Spoke with contact at FT, directly quoted in article. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.ft.com/content/9541cf36-9b40-41c9-9d0f-060b7eecaaec |
Description | Wales in a changing UK |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Part of a major conference organised by the ESRC's UK in a changing Europe programme, February 2022 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Welsh Labour Annual Conference Briefing, March 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Presentation of Election Study findings at Welsh Labour Annual Conference in Llandudno |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Westminster breakfast briefing on 2021 Welsh election |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation to MPs and Peers by WES team followed by Q&A |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |