Investigating the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on stranger sex offender behaviour and victim vulnerability.

Lead Research Organisation: University of Birmingham
Department Name: School of Psychology

Abstract

In times of crisis, we know that offenders continue to commit crimes, and do so in a manner afforded by the new context (Thornton & Voigt, 2012). Sexual offenders are versatile (Lovell et al., 2019), and change their offending behaviour in accordance with the opportunity to offend (Woodhams & Komarzynska, 2014). The Covid-19 outbreak is a crisis that will alter offender behaviour, as well as who is vulnerable to sexual violence and under what circumstances. Our research is highly urgent because, in the UK and internationally, the police and other stakeholders need to know now how to protect people from increased and new vulnerabilities to sexual violence created by Covid-19, and how to best support those victimised. We will address this research gap, documenting the 'who, what, when, where and how' of stranger sexual offending (Leclerc et al. 2016), pre-, peri- (and potentially, post-) Covid-19, and across shorter time-periods defined by differing local/national restrictions.

Our project partner, the Serious Crime Analysis Section (SCAS) of the National Crime Agency, has a unique, large dataset of serious stranger sexual offences. Using this, we will document how offender modus operandi (MO) and victim vulnerability changes from March 2020 to September 2021, and compare this to one year of pre-Covid-19 data (March 2019 to February 2020). These data will be subject to repeated, multi-level analyses using our complementary expertise in analytical techniques from the social and engineering sciences. For example, relative frequencies for behaviours will be compared for periods of differing restrictions, and trends will be compared to macro-level findings regarding crime rates being produced by other research groups. The Covid-19 crisis is unlikely to impact on specific behaviours in isolation; therefore, we will also study patterns of co-occurrence between behaviours using clustering techniques.

As well as being of urgent relevance to stakeholders, our research will bring new insights to the sparse literature on situational crime prevention and sexual offending (Chiu et al., 2020). Dissemination of our methodology will assist other countries where, during the Covid-19 outbreak, the proportion of stranger sexual offences is high (e.g., Kenya; Flowe et al., 2020). Our findings will be relevant for preparations and responses to future pandemics and events where a population's routine activities (locally/nationally) are changed or disrupted (e.g., pandemics, natural disasters, humanitarian emergencies).

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title Training Video produced for National Crime Agency 
Description Research and findings described within a training video produced for the National Crime Agency. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2024 
Impact The video is only just being produced therefore impacts from it are not yet known. It will be available for all UK policing and law enforcement personnel. 
 
Description We have found several examples of where Covid-19 and associated public health measures have impacted on stranger sexual offending in the UK. We found that the rate of stranger sexual offending (as reported to the police) was particularly impacted by the lockdown periods which led to reductions in reporting/this type of offending. The first lockdown also impacted on how quickly victims reported to the police - causing delays. These delays in reporting were still present for other lockdowns but much reduced. We found that the rates of stranger sexual offending tracked Google mobility data whereby as mobility increased, so too did stranger sexual offending. We found changes in where stranger sex offenders approached their victims with closures of pubs, bars and nightclubs. Greater use of the internet during the first year of the pandemic was also reflected in our findings and where suspects and victims met. There were also differences in the age of victims when comparing the year prior to Covid with the first year of Covid. We have written up these findings for an academic paper which is submitted with a top Psychology journal and they have been disseminated via academic and practitioner conferences/workshops and meetings, and in the format of an infographic to the UK Police and the Crown Prosecution Service. In addition, we were able to conduct an additional analysis on what stranger sexual offending was like for three full years pre-Covid producing novel research findings finding seasonal trends in sexual offending, for example.
Exploitation Route The new research findings have been summarised into an infographic for UK policing and shared with the National Rape Working Group and the Regional Rape Working Group, both working groups of the National Police Chief's Council. After presenting on our findings at meetings, the infographic was disseminated to all relevant units in UK policing via the National Police Chiefs Council lead for Rape and Serious Sexual Offences, DCC Sarah Crew. Through this working group we also reached third sector organisations and the Crown Prosecution Service. This led to meetings with the CPS and production of an infographic for them also which included some new findings that were most relevant to their work. The findings are also operationally relevant to the Serious Crime Analysis Section of the National Crime Agency and their comparative case analysis. The findings have been fed back to them via the infographic, an oral presentation and via a written paper. International police units working on sexual offending were reached via an online seminar to the Crime Linkage International NetworK and a presentation via the CEPOL practitioner conference. The research findings will also be of interest to other researchers of sexual violence and may inspire others to do similar analyses. We will reach other academics via our academic journal articles.
Sectors Government

Democracy and Justice

Security and Diplomacy

 
Description Our findings were summarised within two infographics. One infographic was co-designed with police personnel involved in the investigation of rape and serious sexual offences (RASSO) and was disseminated to all RASSO units in the UK via the National Police Chiefs Council's lead for RASSO (DCC Sarah Crew). This inforgraphic was also given to the Serious Crime Analysis Section of the National Crime Agency. The second infographic was designed after consultation with the Crown Prosecution Service regarding what findings would be most relevant to their practice. We have since sent the infographic to them and it has been passed to their Chief Crown Prosecutor. The research findings from this project have also been described in a training video produced for the National Crime Agency. The focus of this video is not this project however the findings are still relevant and therefore have been incorporated into the video. We expect that this video will be made available to all UK police and law enforcement personnel in the next year.
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Co-production of an infographic for UK policing and the CPS
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Collaboration with the National Crime Agency (Serious Crime Analysis Section) regarding Covid-19 impact on stranger sex offending 
Organisation National Crime Agency
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Expertise and intellectual input.
Collaborator Contribution Data, expertise and intellectual input.
Impact Presentations to Regional and National Rape Working Groups in the UK. Creation of infographics for policing and prosecutors. The collaboration is an academic-practitioner collaboration.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Production of Covid-19 Infographic with Crown Prosecution Service 
Organisation Crown Prosecution Service (CPS)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution We used our research findings to produce an infographic for the Crown Prosecution Service.
Collaborator Contribution The Crown Prosecution Service reviewed our research findings and participating in a meeting with us to inform the production of the infographic.
Impact An infographic for the CPS illustrating relevant findings.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Interview in El Tiempo (Colombian newspaper) about the study 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview of PI regarding the study and potential outcomes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/investigacion/investigan-como-los-violadores-cambiaron-su-modus-op...
 
Description Introductory Presentation to National Rape Working Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Introductory presentation regarding the research project was given at the National Rape Working Group. A colleague from the National Crime Agency presented on our behalf and took questions about the project which she fed back to us. Attendees were positive about the project, asked questions and expressed their interest in ensuring that findings translate into positive impact in practice. As a result of this presentation, we were later approached with a further funding opportunity regarding the policing of sexual offences which we were awarded..
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Introductory Presentation to the Regional Rape Working Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation to the Regional Rape Working Group (including the National Police Chiefs Council lead for Rape and Serious Sexual Offences) introducing them to the research to be conducted, outlining our objectives, and requesting any feedback from them. Questions and discussions followed the formal presentation. The attendees were keen to ensure our research findings translate into practice to improve policing and we have been requested to attend future meetings to present our findings as they emerge so the implications can be discussed..
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Meeting with Swedish Police professionals regarding Covid-19 and stranger sexual offending - May 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A group of police officers from the Swedish Police requested a meeting at which we gave a presentation on our research findings. After the meeting they asked if we could send them information about the impact of Covid on other crimes types in the UK (e.g., domestic violence).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at European Association for Psychology and Law - August 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Conference presentation given online by the researcher investigator and the postdoctoral researcher who was working on the project at that time on behalf of the research team.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation at annual outreach conference for Centre for Crime, Justice and Policing - June 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given at the free, annual outreach conference for the Centre for Crime, Justice and Policing. This is attended by professionals, students, the general public and academics. Approximately 40 delegates attended the talk.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation at the Society for Police and Criminal Psychology - September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given by BK at practitioner conference in Canada. Approximately 70 attendees for this talk. Attendees were international.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Presentation given to the Crime Linkage International NetworK (C-LINK) - 13 Sept 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A presentation on the initial findings was given to the international C-LINK group - a group of practitioners who conduct crime linkage in their countries. The findings of this project have bearing on the practice of crime linkage. Colleagues attending from New Zealand expressed interest in replicating our research there.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to Project Partner - Serious Crime Analysis Section of the National Crime Agency - 28th Sept 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A presentation on the findings from the project to date were given to the analysts who work in the Serious Crime Analysis Section who contributed the data for the project and to whose practice, the findings are relevant.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation to Regional Rape Working Group - August 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact An update on initial findings from the project was given to the Regional Rape Working Group which is a group of police leads responsible for rape and serious sexual offences in their regions/forces.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Workshop with Rape and Serious Sexual Offences police leads - in person - 27/09/2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We held a workshop at the University of Birmingham to share our findings to date with police professionals to co-produce recommendations or actions for UK policing in response to our findings. Plans were made to create an infographic for UK policing.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Workshop with Rape and Serious Sexual Offences police leads - remote - 18/10/2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We held an online workshop for those who couldn't join an in-person event at the University of Birmingham to share our findings to date with police professionals to co-produce recommendations or actions for UK policing in response to our findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021