Student to Degree Mismatch: The Role of Schools and the Impact Of Disruption From Covid-19
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Learning and Leadership
Abstract
A level grades are crucial in determining how students match with university courses. Previous research by the team (Campbell et al, 2020) finds lower SES students are more likely to 'undermatch' - attending less selective courses than expected given their A level grades - and less
likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).
In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also
have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.
Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.
In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.
likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).
In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also
have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.
Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.
In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.
Organisations
Description | meeting with Causeway Education |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Description | Advisory Group discussion |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I spoke with my Centre (the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities) advisory board about the project. As we dont have any finding yet it was just an initial chat. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Appeared on BBC News |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | I appeared on BBC News channel live to discuss grade inflation in teacher assessed GCSE grades |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Discussion with collaborators |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I discussed this project with colleagues from LSE since we are collaborating on a similar project together. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presented research to IAB (Institute for Employment Research) Germany |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | I presented related work on mismatch in higher education (in particular the impact of mismatch on future earnings) to economists at the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | attended meeting about widening participation in UCL |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | discussed widening participation at UCL. Talked about my research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | discussed PQA with colleagues at Bristol university |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Discussed UKs system of predicted grades with academics from Bristol working on a model of university admissions |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | met with DfE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Spoke with Ed James from DfE about my research into student to degree mismatch, predicted grades, and human capital versus signalling |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | met with DfE to discuss PQA |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Discussed predicted grades (arising from the cancellation of exams in 2020 and 2021) with DfE |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | met with DfE to discuss mismatch work |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I met with Richard Davies from the DfE to discuss my mismatch work, and this project. I agreed to do a presentation about my work to DfE and other colleagues at a civil service in a cross-department session on widening participation. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | met with ONS to discuss research on mismatch |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented/discussed the details of mismatch, schools and covid project with ONS Analytical Hub, specifically looking at potential for cross-collaboration on shared datasets. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | presentation Oxford University Education Department - Quantitative Methods Hub |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Oxford University Education Department - Quantitative Methods Hub presentation on student to degree mismatch |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | presented at IWAEE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | I presented my work on mismatch and earnings at the International Workshop on the Applied Economics of Education. While i didnt present the findings of this project, i presented related research on mismatch in higher education. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.iwaee.org/home/ |
Description | presented at Scottish Economic Society conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | presented research on mismatch and earnings at the Scottish Economic Society conference - this included some discussion of the current project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.scotecon.org/ |
Description | presented my work on mismatch to DfE / cross dept group on widening participation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I presented my work on mismatch in higher education to the DfE and a cross departmental workshop on widening participation in education. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |