Measuring Trust and its Variance during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Serial Surveys and Quantitative Text Analysis

Lead Research Organisation: Brunel University London
Department Name: Social and Political Science

Abstract

We propose an ambitious cross-national and inter-disciplinary study to understand the critical role that trust plays in public support and compliance with governmental COVID-19 policies. Policy success depends on the public's buy-in, which depends on trust. Trust is a multidimensional concept - thematically including competence, benevolence, fairness, openness, credibility, confidence, reliability and integrity (Gefen, 2002) - with important differing points of emphasis across academic fields. Importantly, our proposed research extends the state of the art by drawing out differences in what a lack of trust means, focusing in particular on key differences between mistrust and distrust (Jennings et al. 2021). In order to not only better understand pandemic management, but also to speed up recovery through policy compliance, and additionally to improve policy efficiency post-COVID-19, we need to understand trust. Building on over fifty years of social science literature on components of trust in general and political trust more specifically (e.g. Levi and Stoker 2000), we will also investigate how multiple factors such as age, gender, ethnicity, class, education, location, occupation, migration status, lived COVID-19 experience, media usage, and political stance affect the various dimensions of trust towards governmental COVID-19 responses and measures, using surveys and social media data over 24 months.

Explaining the variance in people's trust and how trust differs between and within population groups, our research will help identify the less compliant groups, where more understanding and refined communications are required. Our research findings will provide clear explanations of how people's distrust of political institutions or medical authorities reduces their willingness to comply with different policy measures. Mistrust leads to careful scrutiny of information, in terms of how it is presented, and who presents the information (Devine et al. 2020; Jennings et al. 2021). It also leads itself to more rapid attitudinal change towards government COVID-19 policies as citizens receive and use new information. Extending the existing work on COVID-19 and trust, our project will provide further explanation on how the various dimensions of trust mentioned above combine to explain people's willingness or refusal to comply with any specific policy response. By tracking and measuring people's trust and willingness to comply using longitudinal surveys, this project will provide a detailed account of how trust varies over time. By conducting targeted media content analysis, it will allow some of the research questions to be answered directly using secondary data and provide a baseline for comparison, offering an in-depth exploration to identify specific reasons leading to distrust. Together, this mixed method approach aids data triangulation and validates the research findings, providing a more in-depth understanding regarding the variance of trust in Japan and the UK.

By incorporating multiple trust dimensions, multiple trust senders (national, local government institutions and health authorities), as well as multiple outcome variables, our research findings will help identify the separate ways that mistrust and distrust affect (non)compliance. Our project utilises the combined expertise of academics based in both Japan and the UK to validly measure trust in the differing cultural contexts of Japan (collective) and UK (individualistic) and demonstrate the specific ways in which trust is associated with policy compliance and government support, which is critical knowledge in helping both the Japanese and British governments effectively implement COVID-19 exit strategies and build resilient and sustainable post-pandemic societies.
 
Description While the project is far from complete, and we are still in the data gathering stage, we already have a number of key findings. Specifically:

- The different nature of compliance is being analysed in England and Japan, and the effect that trust has on this. During the spread of the new coronavirus infection, a major challenge was whether people would take action to follow government directives, such as wearing masks and keeping social distance. Wearing masks is expected to be effective in preventing the spread of infection to others. It is not only an act of individual prevention of infection but also has the nature of a collective action. This study explores how factors that promote collective action, such as trust in others, and individual factors, such as the threat of infectious disease, influence compliance behavior using online survey data collected monthly in a national sample since July 2022.
- In England, adherents to the Pentecostal, Orthodox Christian, Islamic and Roman Catholic faiths have had significantly fewer COVID-19 vaccinations. This finding demonstrates the significant influence of religious beliefs on vaccine uptake, highlighting the need for more carefully-tailored public health programmes.

- In England, while the Prime Minster scored the lowest on trust, the NHS is more trusted than any other institutes we have studied. This trust is across most sectors of society. The only variance we find on this is based on whether respondents voted for the Conservative Party or their position on a left-right scale.

- Relatedly, the public have very high levels of support for striking nurses and junior doctors. Support levels vary by political affiliation, ideology, and trust in the NHS, with non-Conservative, left-leaning individuals, and those with high trust in the NHS more likely to back the strikes. These findings suggest strategic directions for increasing public support for healthcare workers' strikes.

- Waiting times for healthcare in the UK are at an all time high. Does this affect people's trust in the NHS? Our survey of 7,415 people suggests not. Even when waiting times in Accident and Emergency rooms are long, or when there is a long delay in referrals for cancer treatment, people still trust the NHS. However, members of ethnic minorities and people who voted for the Conservative Party do tend to trust the NHS less. If the NHS wants to build trust, then it needs to look to these two key groups.

- In England, the police receive generally good levels of support, and on the whole, women trust the police more than men. But this relationship reverses in London. We find levels of trust in the police in London to be significantly lower than the findings of Baroness Casey's review into the Met.

- There are significant differences regarding immigration and public opinion in England and Japan. Immigration is a contentious issue in both Japan and England, in part due to England's post-Brexit "points-based" system favoring highly skilled workers and Japan's traditionally restrictive migration policies. Yet the governments of both countries implicitly understand the need for immigrants to fill roles in various sectors, especially as demographic shifts pressure labour markets. We find surprisingly nuanced public attitude. English respondents show a greater variation in their preferences by job sector, particularly valuing immigrants in caring professions, likely reflecting the more vigorous and detailed public debate on immigration in Britain compared to Japan's more muted discussion.

- We need to find alternatives to animal-based and synthetic fertilisers because of the enormous environmental impact they have. Human Excretion Based Fertiliser (HEBF), or fertilisers based on human poo, may offer a solution. But we need to know how socially acceptable this solution is. Based on surveys in Japan and England, we find that the Japanese are more accepting of using HEBF for food production, with fewer health concerns, compared to the English. However, English respondents are more open to using HEBF in public parks. We also notice strong gender differences.

- In Japan, differences into ministerial responses to COVID-19 are in the process of being analysed. How have governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic? In governments, as policy-making authority is delegated to ministers, ministers play a central role in policymaking. Consequently, to understand how governments have made policy to respond to the pandemic, it is important to identify ministers' positions on and policy conflict between ministers over the pandemic. Conducting a text analysis of cabinet ministers' speeches in the Japanese Diet, we identify individual ministers' policy positions on a dimension of economy vs. health.

- In Japan, elections and political efficacy are in the process of being analysed. Do people feel political efficacy more when elections are held? In Japan, many local governments hold elections concurrently during quadrennial unified local elections in April 8, 2023. However, there are some local governments that do not hold elections at the time. In this study, we conduct a survey on political efficacy in March and April to observe whether there is a difference in the sense of political efficacy between local residents that are involved in elections and those that are not.

- A natural experiment is being conducted on terrorism and political attitudes in Japan. On July 8, 2022, two days before the House of Councillors election voting day, a terrorist attack occurred in which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and killed. We happened to be conducting an awareness survey of the general public from July 6 to 12, before and after the shooting. Using the data from this survey, we can conduct a natural experiment on the impact of terrorism on people's political attitudes by using the respondents before the shooting as the control group and those after the shooting as the treatment group.

- Trust and social dominance orientation is being analysed in England and Japan. Social dominance orientation (SDO) has been used extensively in international relations studies in recent years as a possible predictor of specific policy support tendencies. One such argument is that it predicts realism, for which data from the United States have been presented. This study will use data from Japan and the United Kingdom to see how effective SDOs are as a predictor of realism in non-U.S. contexts.

- Regarding citizen's preferences on how NHS shares their data with others. We have four new findings:
1. Personal "Information" is generally more preferred than personal "data". Citizens tend to find it more acceptable for NHS to share their information rather than data with other health-care providers, including hospitals, GPs, pharmacists, social care providers and health insurance.
2. Sharing personal information or data with health-care providers is better preferred than sharing anonymous data or information.
3. Sharing either data or information with pharmaceutical companies is not preferred, no matter it is personal or anonymous.
4. Sharing either data or information with the local governments is not preferred. However, if must, then the data or information must be anonymized.
5. In general people are willing to share information about their medical history to a hospital upon admittance. The acceptability of sharing information depends on the kind of medical data to be shared. There is less acceptance of sharing information on history of cancer, mental illnesses, and sexually transmitted diseases.
Exploitation Route Our research was presented at a collaborative UK-Japan event held in the Houses of Parliament. This was a great opportunity for outreach. We had attendees from
- The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science,
- The NHS Health Innovation Network,
- The Japanese Embassy/ Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
- YouGov,
- Kinseed Ltd.,
- Antimicrobial Materials Ltd.,
- The UK Home Office,
- The Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation,
- The Japan Local Government Centre
Sectors Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software)

Education

Healthcare

Government

Democracy and Justice

URL https://www.trusttracker.org/publications.php
 
Description Our research was presented at a collaborative UK-Japan event held in the Houses of Parliament. This was a great opportunity for outreach. We had attendees from - The Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, - The NHS Health Innovation Network, - The Japanese Embassy/ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, - YouGov, - Kinseed Ltd., - Antimicrobial Materials Ltd., - The UK Home Office, - The Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation, - The Japan Local Government Centre
First Year Of Impact 2023
Sector Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Title Data checking tool 
Description We developed an interactive tool to display our data. 
Type Of Material Physiological assessment or outcome measure 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact People can use this tool to verify the data we collected. 
URL https://tsu11nishimura.shinyapps.io/JRP_LEAD_v3/?_ga=2.206874263.544578118.1680277029-80628364.16802...
 
Title Replication Data for: From Plaster Casts to Picket Lines: Public Support for Industrial Action in the NHS 
Description R code and survey data capturing public support of strike action by NHS nurses and junior doctors. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact - Of all categories analysed, there is the highest level of public support for strike action by nurses and junior doctors - The only factors lowering support for these strikes are: i) whether the respondent voted for the Conservative Party at the 2019 general election; ii) how far to the right the respondent places themselves on a left-right political scale. 
URL https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SZJSOF
 
Title Replication Data for: London, you have a problem with women: Trust towards the police in England 
Description Replication data and R scripts to analyse survey results on the degree to which people trust the police in England. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Makes the significant finding that women trust the police significantly more than men in every part of England, except for London. 
URL https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2XLCM0
 
Title Replication Data for: Public Perceptions of Human Excretion-Based Fertilizer in England and Japan 
Description Replication data and code for research on how accepting survey respondents in the UK and Japan would be to use Human Excretion Based Fertiliser (HEBF). 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2023 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Survey respondents in Japan are much more willing to use human excretion based fertiliser than respondents in England. There is also a clear gender divide. 
URL https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/0VNQPP
 
Title Replication Data for: The role of religion on COVID-19 vaccine uptake in England 
Description Survey responses on the religion of respondents, and the number of times they have been vaccinated against COVID-19. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Made the notable finding that Pentecostal, Orthodox Christian, Islamic and Roman Catholic respondents have received fewer COVID-19 vaccinations. 
URL https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VGA0BK
 
Title https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/AQYYNK 
Description This dataset is used to for this paper: Dorussen, H., & Hansen, M. E., & Pickering, S. D., & Reifler, J., & Scotto, T., & Sunahara, Y., & Yen, D. (2024). The Influence of Waiting Times and Sociopolitical Variables on Public Trust in Healthcare: A Cross-Sectional Study of the NHS in England. Public Health in Practice, x(x), x-x. Accepted for publication. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The data will be used by others to explore the relations between NHS waiting time and public trust. 
URL https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/AQYYNK
 
Description Co-publication of data 
Organisation Brunel University London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The research team shared the data and discussed the findings with the collaborator.
Collaborator Contribution Dr Martin Hansen worked with the team on analysing and explaining the data. This led to the co-authored paper: Dorussen, H., & Hansen, M. E., & Pickering, S. D., & Reifler, J., & Scotto, T., & Sunahara, Y., & Yen, D. (2024). The Influence of Waiting Times and Sociopolitical Variables on Public Trust in Healthcare: A Cross-Sectional Study of the NHS in England. Public Health in Practice, x(x), x-x. Accepted for publication.
Impact Dorussen, H., & Hansen, M. E., & Pickering, S. D., & Reifler, J., & Scotto, T., & Sunahara, Y., & Yen, D. (2024). The Influence of Waiting Times and Sociopolitical Variables on Public Trust in Healthcare: A Cross-Sectional Study of the NHS in England. Public Health in Practice, x(x), x-x. Accepted for publication.
Start Year 2023
 
Description NHS collaboration - health innovation network south London 
Organisation Health Innovation Network South London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We tested people's attitude towards sharing their personal information with health related organisations and compared whether "information" is evaluated more favourably to share than "data" using several experiments with data collected over 4 waves.
Collaborator Contribution The communication director from Health Innovation Network South London prompted us to test the differences between data and information and gave us feedback about the findings. She also wrote about our finding in their blog post.
Impact The findings were shared in Health Innovation Network South London's blog post.
Start Year 2023
 
Description Britain's energy price cap left many people confused - especially Conservative voters 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This piece reached over 5000 readers through The Conversation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://theconversation.com/britains-energy-price-cap-left-many-people-confused-especially-conservat...
 
Description Kobe University Research Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The research team visited Kobe University in January 9th and 10th. 12 Japanese postgraduate students attended this workshop. They presented their research findings and received feedback from the research team.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Research Finding dissemination at the Houses of Parliament 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The team presented its current findings on public trust during the Covid-19 pandemic at the Houses of Parliament on 2 March. 50 participants attended this project finding dissemination meeting and discussed about the research findings, adding new ideas and suggestions for further surveys.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://staff.brunel.ac.uk/campus-news/international-team-reports-on-impact-of-covid-19-on-trust-and...
 
Description Research seminar at Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact On 12th January, the project team presented their current research findings and discussed the data with the Japanese partners. We also discussed what we plan to do for the next 4 waves.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description TrustTracker.org 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Website launched to highlight ongoing research on trust.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.TrustTracker.org