Inequality and Governance in Unstable Democracies: The Mediating Role of Trust
Lead Research Organisation:
Institute of Development Studies
Department Name: Research Department
Abstract
Understanding how global rises in economic inequality are affecting governance regimes across the world is a critical question to the social sciences today. Historically, sharp increases in inequality have generated drastic changes in political and social order (Gurr 1970, Skocpol 1979, 1994). However, existing knowledge about the causal effects of inequality on governance is surprisingly limited. At the macro-level, studies show in general a negative association between economic inequality and the quality of governance institutions (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006, Rothstein 2011), but have not reached a consensus about the causal mechanisms that may explain this relationship. At the micro-level, the evidence so far reveals mixed effects of inequality on a number of factors that shape governance institutions, including voting behaviour, attitudes towards democracy and the rule of law, civic participation, collective mobilisation and political violence (Alesina and La Ferrara 2005, Bardhan 2005, Solt 2008). These mixed effects are not surprising because the ways in which citizens participate in the political arena and mobilise collectively to drive change are moulded by inequality itself. One case in point - which we currently observe in many parts of the world - is when rises in inequality allow the capture of political decision-making processes by those that benefit from them, eroding social relations between groups and trust in institutions (Piketty 2013, Stiglitz 2013). However, despite the enormous consequences of these complex relationships for global stability and democratic values, there is to date limited knowledge about the factors that may mediate the relationship between rising inequalities and governance outcomes. When this evidence exists, it is restricted to a handful of countries. The main aim of this project is to explore how one key factor -trust- mediates the relationship between inequality and governance in settings where democratic institutions may be unstable or under threat.
The project is organised around three thematic areas: (i) how trust within and between social groups and towards governance institutions emerges and evolves in contexts of rising inequality; (ii) how trust in unequal societies shapes governance outcomes through two intervening factors - political behaviour and social mobilisation; and (iii) the pathways through which changes in such intervening factors may sometimes result in inclusive governance outcomes, but in the breakdown of governance at other times. Each of these areas will incorporate detailed theoretical and empirical analyses at the subnational level in four countries -Colombia, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Spain- affected by rising inequalities and characterised by unstable or strained democratic institutions.
The absence of systematic qualitative, quantitative and behavioural data has hindered progress in understanding the links between inequality, trust and governance in countries outside North America and Western Europe. The project seeks to compile a number of unexplored data sources and collect new data comparatively across these other countries in order to fulfil this critical gap. This data collection will involve: (i) comparative individual-level surveys to understand contemporaneous levels of trust, and attitudes towards formal and non-formal local governing institutions, (ii) behavioural experiments under different inequality and political contexts to better understand the formation of trust under different scenarios, (iii) indepth interviews with key political actors in government, members of social movements and citizen organisations to understand how inequalities affect perceptions of governance and strategies of political mobilisation, and (iv)detailed compilation of archival data that will allow us to better understand how inequalities and attitudes have evolved across time and how different historical junctures may shape the governance outcomes we observe today.
The project is organised around three thematic areas: (i) how trust within and between social groups and towards governance institutions emerges and evolves in contexts of rising inequality; (ii) how trust in unequal societies shapes governance outcomes through two intervening factors - political behaviour and social mobilisation; and (iii) the pathways through which changes in such intervening factors may sometimes result in inclusive governance outcomes, but in the breakdown of governance at other times. Each of these areas will incorporate detailed theoretical and empirical analyses at the subnational level in four countries -Colombia, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Spain- affected by rising inequalities and characterised by unstable or strained democratic institutions.
The absence of systematic qualitative, quantitative and behavioural data has hindered progress in understanding the links between inequality, trust and governance in countries outside North America and Western Europe. The project seeks to compile a number of unexplored data sources and collect new data comparatively across these other countries in order to fulfil this critical gap. This data collection will involve: (i) comparative individual-level surveys to understand contemporaneous levels of trust, and attitudes towards formal and non-formal local governing institutions, (ii) behavioural experiments under different inequality and political contexts to better understand the formation of trust under different scenarios, (iii) indepth interviews with key political actors in government, members of social movements and citizen organisations to understand how inequalities affect perceptions of governance and strategies of political mobilisation, and (iv)detailed compilation of archival data that will allow us to better understand how inequalities and attitudes have evolved across time and how different historical junctures may shape the governance outcomes we observe today.
Planned Impact
This project aims to generate evidence that will support grassroots and international organisations and governments to work in contexts of rising inequalities and where democratic structures may be unstable or under threat. Impact will be achieved by building and maintaining networks to ensure that research findings influence agendas and policies at local, national and international levels. At the local and national levels, we will engage with civil society organisations (CSOs), practitioners and policy-makers working to build inclusive governance institutions and social trust and cohesion. Internationally, we will work with organisations and donors, such as DFID, USAID, the UN, the World Bank and international NGOs, by influencing long-term international agendas around good governance and institutional solutions to unstable democracies.
We will achieve these impact goals in a number of ways. First, we will build on long-term collaborations between the research team and NGOs and CSOs in Colombia, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Spain (details provided in the Pathways to Impact section). NGOs and CSOs play important roles in supporting and shaping individual perceptions and attitudes and the emergence and evolution of social movements, as well as acting as intermediaries between government institutions and different social groups. A key area of impact of this project will be to share knowledge to better align the goals of NGOs, CSOs and associated social movements with the latest research findings on how inequality interacts with trust to shape governance outcomes in unstable democracies. Collaborative arrangements will include planning and designing the research, sharing data and evidence, feeding project findings into planned interventions, and jointly influencing key national and local policy processes. These arrangements will also provide opportunities for shared learning and capacity building within the NGOs and CSOs involved in the project. Knowledge exchange activities will begin at the initial workshop at IDS, where we will map the network of existing and planned collaborations with NGO and CSOs, as well as other stakeholders. This network map will allow us to identify relevant policy landscapes in all case studies to better understand opportunities for influence. In particular, we intend to make use of the project and its findings to support local civic initiatives around social trust and inclusive governance. To this purpose, we will work with local citizen movements (directly and through local NGOs and CSOs) in the case studies to discuss and co-design the project.
Second, building on the partnerships above, we intend to explore evidence sharing mechanisms and additional collaborations in the course of the project with relevant government ministries and departments in the four case studies (details provided in the Pathways to Impact section). Representatives of these agencies will be invited to the annual project workshops, and to other project events (see Pathways to Impact section). Meetings will be also arranged at the start of the project with these institutions to introduce and discuss the project and solicit input into the overall research design and the specific subprojects pertaining to each case study.
Third, we will make use of the research team's longstanding collaboration with the World Bank, United Nations agencies and other international actors shaping governance agendas worldwide to influence debates at the international level. We will share the project design and findings, collaborate in relevant events, and bring relevant staff to participate in project events. Notably, the World Bank will provide support for this engagement via their influential 'Pathways for Peace' agenda, with its director Alexandre Marc joining the project as part of the Advisory Board.
We will achieve these impact goals in a number of ways. First, we will build on long-term collaborations between the research team and NGOs and CSOs in Colombia, Ethiopia, Pakistan and Spain (details provided in the Pathways to Impact section). NGOs and CSOs play important roles in supporting and shaping individual perceptions and attitudes and the emergence and evolution of social movements, as well as acting as intermediaries between government institutions and different social groups. A key area of impact of this project will be to share knowledge to better align the goals of NGOs, CSOs and associated social movements with the latest research findings on how inequality interacts with trust to shape governance outcomes in unstable democracies. Collaborative arrangements will include planning and designing the research, sharing data and evidence, feeding project findings into planned interventions, and jointly influencing key national and local policy processes. These arrangements will also provide opportunities for shared learning and capacity building within the NGOs and CSOs involved in the project. Knowledge exchange activities will begin at the initial workshop at IDS, where we will map the network of existing and planned collaborations with NGO and CSOs, as well as other stakeholders. This network map will allow us to identify relevant policy landscapes in all case studies to better understand opportunities for influence. In particular, we intend to make use of the project and its findings to support local civic initiatives around social trust and inclusive governance. To this purpose, we will work with local citizen movements (directly and through local NGOs and CSOs) in the case studies to discuss and co-design the project.
Second, building on the partnerships above, we intend to explore evidence sharing mechanisms and additional collaborations in the course of the project with relevant government ministries and departments in the four case studies (details provided in the Pathways to Impact section). Representatives of these agencies will be invited to the annual project workshops, and to other project events (see Pathways to Impact section). Meetings will be also arranged at the start of the project with these institutions to introduce and discuss the project and solicit input into the overall research design and the specific subprojects pertaining to each case study.
Third, we will make use of the research team's longstanding collaboration with the World Bank, United Nations agencies and other international actors shaping governance agendas worldwide to influence debates at the international level. We will share the project design and findings, collaborate in relevant events, and bring relevant staff to participate in project events. Notably, the World Bank will provide support for this engagement via their influential 'Pathways for Peace' agenda, with its director Alexandre Marc joining the project as part of the Advisory Board.
Publications
Abreu L
(2021)
Life With Corona: Increased Gender Differences in Aggression and Depression Symptoms Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Burden in Germany.
in Frontiers in psychology
Abreu L
(2021)
Life With Corona: Increased Gender Differences in Aggression and Depression Symptoms Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Burden in Germany
in Frontiers in Psychology
Aghajanian A
(2020)
Riots and social capital in urban India
Arjona A
(2020)
Actitudes de exintegrantes de las Farc-EP frente a la reincorporación (Attitudes of Former Members of the Farc-EP Towards Their Reincorporation Process)
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Balcells L
(2022)
Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia
in Journal of Peace Research
Balcells L
(2024)
The Wars of Others: The Effect of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Spanish Nationalism
in The Journal of Politics
Balcells L
(2020)
The Double Logic of Internal Purges: New Evidence from Francoist Spain
in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics
Balcells L
(2021)
Secession and social polarization: Evidence from Catalonia
Brück T
(2020)
Trust in the time of corona
Description | Government of Punjab's Resource Mobilisation Committee (RMC) decision to shift property valuation mechanism from Annual Rental Value (ARV) to Capital Value |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
Impact | The project team working on the Pakistan case study influenced the direction of policy by getting the government to add reform of the Property tax valuation system to the reform agenda. |
Description | Pakistan Case Study_International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) |
Organisation | International Centre for Tax and Development |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | The Pakistan Project team helped the International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD), which is based at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) by furthering research on trust, political economy, and taxation. |
Collaborator Contribution | The International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) contributed funds to enhance the scale of surveys to ensure sufficient power for the study. |
Impact | No |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Pakistan Case Study_International Growth Centre (IGC) |
Organisation | International Growth Centre (IGC) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | The Pakistan project team helped the International Growth Centre (IGC) by furthering research on trust, political economy, and taxation. |
Collaborator Contribution | The International Growth Centre (IGC) contributed funds to enhance the scale of surveys to ensure sufficient power for the study. |
Impact | IGC Project Report: Abbas et al. (2023) "Property tax utilisation and equity in Punjab: Policy challenges and reform options", International Growth Centre: London. IGC Policy Brief: Abbas et al. (2023) "Property tax utilisation and equity in Punjab: Policy challenges and reform options", International Growth Centre: London. |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | 4 x Presentations with Government of Punjab (Pakistan) stakeholders |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Pakistan team presented their findings based on their research in the following meetings with government stakeholders: 1. Meeting of the Government of Punjab's Cabinet Committee on Resource Mobilization (2nd January 2022) 2. The Government of Punjab's Resource Mobilization Committee (7th and 9th September 2021) 3. The Director General of the Excise and Taxation department Government of Punjab (26th August 2021) 4. Secretary Excise and Taxation, Government of Punjab (27th August 2021) The team presented their findings on property tax inequities and distortions in valuation in the current property tax structure, and recommendations to improve utilization of the property tax base and increase citizen trust and tax compliance. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022 |
Description | Blog post_"El rey, ¿institución neutral o de parte?" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Blog post written by Laia Balcells Ventura and Francesc Amat from the Spain case study, published on the "Agenda Pública" website which is a global political and economic analysis website, in Spanish and English, prepared by researchers and analysts of the social sciences at universities and research centers. The title, translated into English, is "The king, neutral institution or party?" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://agendapublica.elpais.com/noticia/17169/rey-institucion-neutral-parte |
Description | Blog post_"Las consecuencias de cambiar el callejero franquista" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | This blog post was written by Laia Balcells and Francisco Villamil (Spain case study). It was published in Spain on the website "Piedras de papel" which is a blog in which a group of sociologists and political scientists try to give a rigorous view of current issues. The blog is titled translated into english is "The consequences of changing the Francoist street". |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/justicia-transicional-memoria-historica_132_8453155.html |
Description | Blog post_"Referéndums: un experimento y una propuesta de votos secuenciales" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | This blog post was written by Laia Balcells and Francesc Amatt (Spain case study). It was published in Spain on the website "Piedras de papel" which is a blog in which a group of sociologists and political scientists try to give a rigorous view of current issues. The blog is titled translated into English is "Referendums: an experiment and a proposal for sequential votes". |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/referendums-experimento-propuesta-votos-secuenciales_132_8083... |
Description | Conference_First Inter-Provincial Conference on Tax Policy Harmonization organized by Government of Punjab's Excise and Taxation Department |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Pakistan team presented findings from the project in a session dedicated to "distortions in existing property tax valuation and possibilities for reform". Participation from Pakistan's Federal Board of Revenue and all provincial Excise Departments responsible for the administration of property taxes. Members of Pakistan's Federal Board of Revenue and all provincial Excise and Taxation departments responsible for the administration of property taxes participated in the session. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Policy panel on "¿Cómo va la implementación del Acuerdo con las Farc-EP? La perspectiva de las personas en proceso de reincorporación". (How is the implementation of the Final Agreement going? Evidence from a remote survey of former members of the FARC-EP), 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The researchers from the Colombia case study presented the main results from the remote survey on Farc former combatants, engaging in a conversation with: - Danilo Rueda, Alto Comisionado para la Paz (High Comissioner for Peace) - Luis Alberto Donoso, Director, Agencia de Reincorporación y Normalización - ARN (Agency for Reincorporation and Normalization) - Pastor Alape, Farc's delegate to the Consejo Nacional de Reincorporación (National Reincorporation Council) - Raúl Rosende, Director of Verification, UN Mission in Colombia The activity stimulated a direct debate on the challenges of the reincorporation process among the main actors involved, and also sparked later interest in other third parties overseeing the process, like the Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://economia.uniandes.edu.co/evento/como-va-la-implementacion-del-acuerdo-con-las-farc-ep |
Description | Presentation at Conference on Political Violence and Democratic Backsliding, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, October 6-7, 2022: titled "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain". |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Project members from Spain case study (Laia Balcells, Juan F. Tellez, and Francisco Villamil) gave a presentation on "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain" at the 'Conference on Political Violence and Democratic Backsliding', held at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, October 6-7, 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at a Research workshop at the Department of Political Science, Columbia University, 7 December 2022: titled "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain". |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Project members from Spain case study (Laia Balcells, Juan F. Tellez, and Francisco Villamil) gave a presentation titled: "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain" at a Research workshop at the Department of Political Science, Columbia University, on the 7 December 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation at a Research workshop at the Department of Politics, Princeton University, 5 December 2022: titled "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain". |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Project members from Spain case study (Laia Balcells, Juan F. Tellez, and Francisco Villamil) gave a presentation titled: "Past conflict, media, and polarisation in Spain" at a Research workshop at the Department of Politics, Princeton University, on the 5 December 2022. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation on findings about the current property taxation system in Punjab, 7th and 9th September 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Project members from the Pakistan case study gave a presentation on findings about the current property taxation system in Punjab: This presentation was given to Government of Punjab's Resource Mobilisation Committee (RMC), chaired by Punjab's Finance Minister. The intended purpose was to share our findings about the current property taxation system with policymakers. The project team provided evidence for regressivity and inequity in the system, which lowers citizen trust in the local public finance system and results in low tax utilisation. Since this session was chaired by Punjab's Finance Minister, this led to support of the reform direction that we proposed. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Presentation on property tax policy harmonisation in Punjab, 19th January 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Project members from the Pakistan case study gave a presentation on property tax policy harmonisation in Punjab: This presentation was given at a conference, organised by E&T, titled "Inter-Provincial Conference on Tax Policy Harmonisation". It was attended by government officials from E&T and Federal Board of Revenue. The intended purpose was to highlight benefits of property tax policy harmonisation and push for a reform of the property tax valuation system in Punjab, Pakistan. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation with the Colombian Government and FARC: "Attitudes of former combatants of the Farc-EP towards reincorporation" |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Political discussion/ presentation where Emilio Archila (Colombian lawyer and politician), Pastor Alape (former FARC leader), Andrés Stapper (Director General of the Agency for Reincorporation and Normalization (ARN)), Angelika Rettber (on the board of Corporación Reconciliación Colombia), along with researchers Leopoldo Fergusson and Juana García Duque (Universidad de los Andes), discussed the challenges and progress of the FARC reincorporation process. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRA0wO724is |
Description | Session on "Strong Fiscal Foundations for Sustainable Development", 19th December 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Project members from Pakistan case study gave a session on "Strong Fiscal Foundations for Sustainable Development": This session was conducted at an international conference titled "Pathways to Development: Equitable and Sustainable Growth in Pakistan". It was attended by leading academics, policymakers and students. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://youtu.be/QtnpjVCB_C0 |