Zika: surveillance, risk factors and vector management in Brazil
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
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Technical Summary
Rapid developments in Zika virus surveillance, risk factor analysis and optimal control
strategy are immediately required to curtail the American outbreak. Since 2012, our Brazilian
partner has been leading an arbovirus serosurveillance cohort study of 117 pregnant women
and 278 infants in a favela of Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro; and we will be piggybacking CI
Brasil's study for the currently proposed project. Half the requested funds will be transferred
to Brazil to support the PCR-confirmation of 181 suspected Zika cases among the cohort (in
addition to any suspected cases that arise over the next 18 months). PCR analysis will also
be conducted on mosquito samples collected from the households of febrile cases and their
neighbours. All collected mosquitoes of all species have been retained over the past 2 years
and stored appropriately for this follow-up analysis. This will allow for the incrimination of the
vector species that is/are primarily responsible for Zika transmission – a critical current
knowledge gap. Taking advantage of the years of collected data on the cohort
(socioeconomics, georeferenced locations, febrile history, mosquito numbers/species
collected, etc) coupled with the new diagnostic results, risk factor analysis will be conducted
using cutting-edge Model Based Geostatistical methods in order to produce the first Zika risk
maps for (primarily) Rio and (secondarily) Brazil. These data and risk factors will then inform
the construction of mathematical models developed to analyse optimal mosquito control
strategy employing both traditional tools (insecticides, breeding site elimination) and novel
approaches (sterile insect technique, genetic control and Wolbachia releases).
strategy are immediately required to curtail the American outbreak. Since 2012, our Brazilian
partner has been leading an arbovirus serosurveillance cohort study of 117 pregnant women
and 278 infants in a favela of Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro; and we will be piggybacking CI
Brasil's study for the currently proposed project. Half the requested funds will be transferred
to Brazil to support the PCR-confirmation of 181 suspected Zika cases among the cohort (in
addition to any suspected cases that arise over the next 18 months). PCR analysis will also
be conducted on mosquito samples collected from the households of febrile cases and their
neighbours. All collected mosquitoes of all species have been retained over the past 2 years
and stored appropriately for this follow-up analysis. This will allow for the incrimination of the
vector species that is/are primarily responsible for Zika transmission – a critical current
knowledge gap. Taking advantage of the years of collected data on the cohort
(socioeconomics, georeferenced locations, febrile history, mosquito numbers/species
collected, etc) coupled with the new diagnostic results, risk factor analysis will be conducted
using cutting-edge Model Based Geostatistical methods in order to produce the first Zika risk
maps for (primarily) Rio and (secondarily) Brazil. These data and risk factors will then inform
the construction of mathematical models developed to analyse optimal mosquito control
strategy employing both traditional tools (insecticides, breeding site elimination) and novel
approaches (sterile insect technique, genetic control and Wolbachia releases).
Publications
Funk S
(2016)
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus.
in PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Meredith H
(2019)
Optimising systemic insecticide use to improve malaria control
in BMJ Global Health
O'Reilly KM
(2018)
Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis.
in BMC medicine
Pedro RS
(2019)
A populational-based birth cohort study in a low-income urban area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: implementation and description of the characteristics of the study.
in Cadernos de saude publica
Yakob L
(2017)
Aedes aegypti Control Through Modernized, Integrated Vector Management.
in PLoS currents
Yakob L
(2016)
Low risk of a sexually-transmitted Zika virus outbreak.
in The Lancet. Infectious diseases
Yakob L
(2016)
Alternative vector control methods to manage the Zika virus outbreak: more haste, less speed - Authors' reply.
in The Lancet. Global health
Description | Horizon 2020 consortium grant funded by the European Research Council (734584) |
Amount | € 12,000,000 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 734584 |
Organisation | European Research Council (ERC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | Belgium |
Start | 09/2016 |
End | 09/2020 |
Description | MRC LID PhD studentship |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | MRC Doctoral Training Program |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2016 |
End | 03/2020 |
Title | Metapopulation mathematical model of Zika in Latin and Central America |
Description | Computer code detailing a metapopulation mathematical model of Zika in Latin and Central America |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This model was the first published field-validated mathematical model of Zika virus |
URL | https://github.com/kath-o-reilly/Zika-LAC-Outbreaks/tree/master/Code |
Title | Zika case data for all Latin American Countries |
Description | Zika reported case data for all Latin American Countries were collated by my research team |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Country-level reports citing the data (and model outputs we produced using this data) were provided for all ministries of health for all Latin American and Central American countries |
URL | https://github.com/kath-o-reilly/Zika-LAC-Outbreaks/tree/master/CountryReports |
Description | Patricia Brasil |
Organisation | Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | We are producing coupled entomological-epidemiological models based on mosquito data and clinical data collected from a slum area of Manguinhos in Rio de Janeiro. This collaborator has conducted all field collections already and the MRC'c contribution provided the means of testing the clinical samples in Fiocruz. |
Collaborator Contribution | This collaborator's team collected all entomological and epidemiological samples from the field site and have now tested the clinical samples for zika sero-positivity. |
Impact | Field data results have only recently been communicated and analysis (led by PI Yakob) is underway. |
Start Year | 2016 |