A hybrid model for predicting the probablity of very extreme rainfall

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: Dept of Physics


A hybrid physical-statistical model for very extreme rainfall statistics will be crtically examined. This model will be tested against mesoscale model simulations and its limitations explored numerically. In particular two hypotheses will be examined. The first hypotheis is that regional simulations of very extreme rainfall are consistent with the proposed hybrid model. The second hypothisis is that the hybrid model is suitable for finite time periods and can be adjusted for non-stationary parameters.


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Singleton A (2013) Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of rainfall in a model squall line in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Description We have demonstrated that extreme precipitation is more sensitive to temperature than can be simply accounted for by the average enhanced humidity in a warmer atmosphere.
Exploitation Route This finding supports the need for high resolution climate models, as a coarse resolution model will not be able to capture the enhanced sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature.
Sectors Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Construction,Energy,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail,Transport

Description We have presented our results to EDF who where interested in flood management. I am not aware of any follow up.
First Year Of Impact 2012
Sector Energy
Impact Types Economic