Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change

Lead Research Organisation: Newcastle University
Department Name: Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing societies in the coming century but there are important gaps in our understanding of how climate change might affect local and regional scale hydrology. In particular, we do not know how European rainfall patterns might change. Observations of rainfall suggest that there have been increases in northern and central Europe, especially in winter, and also increases in rainfall intensity. These changes are consistent with atmospheric physics which indicate that warmer air can hold more moisture. We use climate models to examine how climate might change in the future and these suggest more frequent and intense heavy rainfall even in regions experiencing lower rainfall totals. This may cause an increase in the risk of flooding of the sort witnessed over the last decade across the UK and Europe. Although climate model ability to simulate observed processes has improved in recent years, there are still biases in their outputs due to uncertainties in the levels of future greenhouse gas emissions, due to the large-scale resolution of climate models compared to many natural processes and due to natural variations in the climate. There is also a lack of climate model simulations on the small scale needed to model some of the heaviest rainfall events, in particular summer storms. This research advances the study of extreme climate events by looking at the causes of climate model biases in the simulation of extreme rainfall, particularly with regards to heavy summer storms. We will first identify the historical characteristics of heavy rainfall using observed storms and, after we have identified the atmospheric causes for these events, we will try to provide physically-based explanations for any detected trends. Climate models represent physical processes in different ways and this can have an important influence on the simulation of heavy rainfall. We will assess which of these affect the simulation of heavy rainfall by comparing different model simulations with observations. Weather forecasting and climate models will also be run at a 1.5km resolution to see if such models are able to tell us more about how heavy rainfall events such as thunderstorms might change in the future. This research will provide new estimates of future changes to heavy rainfall and examine the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for such changes. This information will tell us which aspects of heavy rainfall and relevant processes are simulated well by models and which projections for the future we should use in informing any adaptation to climate change. Those that are not will be identified and this research will provide guidance on improvements that are needed in the next generation of climate models as well as weather forecasting models. As we use many different climate models, we can also produce estimates of how uncertain we are about future changes in extreme rainfall and flood risk. The summer 2007 floods cost the UK over £3 billion and the UK Government has announced increased annual budgets for flood risk management that will reach £800 million by 2010 but when and should this investment be prioritised. The Pitt Review in 2008 suggested that more information is needed for 'urgent and fundamental changes in the way the country is adapting to the likelihood of more frequent and intense periods of heavy rainfall'. We need to know how heavy rainfall and flood risks may change in the future, particularly for surface water flooding which is very poorly understood. The information provided by this research is vital for agencies responsible for future flood risk planning and management such as the Environment Agency, DEFRA and the Emergency Services and crucial for updating the climate change allowances used in flood risk management.

Publications

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Blenkinsop S (2017) Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK. in International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

 
Description A key finding of the project has been that new model simulations have indicated that extreme summer rainfall may become more frequent in the UK due to climate change. While summers are expected to become drier overall by 2100, intense rainfall indicative of serious flash flooding could become several times more frequent. Until now, climate models haven't been able to simulate how extreme hourly rainfall might change in future. The very high resolution model used in CONVEX allows us to examine these changes for the first time. It shows heavier summer downpours in the future, with almost five times more events exceeding 28mm in one hour in the future than in the current climate - changes we might expect theoretically as the world warms. Other findings indicate that the projections suggest intensification of both summer and winter extremes at the end of 21st century.

Climate models, which generally work at coarse resolutions, have been able to accurately simulate winter rainfall and have suggested generally wetter winters with the potential for higher daily rainfall rates in the future. In summer, however, it is the hourly rates that are more important as rain tends to fall in short, intense bursts - as seen during the Boscastle flooding of 2004. Climate models have so far lacked the resolution to accurately simulate smaller-scale convective storms which cause this type of rain. To address this, CONVEX used a climate model with a higher resolution than ever used before to examine future rainfall change - using 1.5km grid boxes instead of the usual 12km or larger - the same as the Met Office weather forecast model. This model gives a realistic representation of hourly rainfall, allowing us to make future projections with some confidence.

Published results indicate that temperature is an important driver of intense summer rainfall in the UK. This has been shown using new, quality controlled hourly rainfall observations and radar data. A further significant finding is that the intense rainfall-temperature relationship noted in the observed data has also been identified in the detailed climate model, indicating that it is able to reproduce important processes in the generation of extreme rainfall, giving us further confidence in its simulations. In the future however, as seen in observations in other regions, the hottest days see a decrease in rainfall intensity.

The project completed additional model simulations for summer months to investigate changes in rainfall intensity and duration at the 10-minute timescale. This indicated that detectable changes in 10-minute and hourly precipitation emerge before changes in daily precipitation. Thus changes in rainfall rates, rather than changes to daily rainfall totals, provide the greatest potential for detection of change. The 1.5km model results suggest that changes to short-duration rainfall intensities may become discernible in winter over the next few decades, whilst it is likely to be several decades before changes in summer are detectable (Kendon et al, 2018). However, observations of historical UK hourly (and daily) rainfall are dominated by natural climate variability and so do not show this signal of change.
Exploitation Route The findings might be taken forward by being incorporated into policy guidance for adaptation to increased flood risk. This has been pursued by working with CH2M Hill and UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR) to apply the outputs from CONVEX to obtain improved estimates of changes in intense rainfall, providing guidance on uplift factors to be applied to improved planning for sewer design. On the back of this UKWIR are making a further round of funding available. The project is also collaborating with CEH Wallingford who are taking output from the 1.5km climate model and running it through their grid-to-grid hydrological model, to examine flood impacts. A report on the "First realisation of future changes in hourly rainfall over the southern UK with a convection-permitting model" was provided to government (DECC/Defra) in March and a guidance report on the strengths and limitations of climate projections from coarse resolution models has been produced as an internal Met Office deliverable, and this will be prepared for wider dissemination.

Through additional funding obtained from NERC we are also producing a gridded 1km dataset of observed hourly rainfall for the UK which will have numerous applications in the hydrological research sector. This is to be made available in collaboration with CEH Wallingford who already provide a similar product at the daily timescale.

Further high resolution model runs have since been conducted by the UK Met Office, including for the northern UK domain and Singapore. CONVEX findings might also be taken forward in the academic climate modelling community. The project has engaged with this group by convening a session on high-resolution modelling at the European Geophysical Union General Assembly in Vienna in 2014. The project was also invited to give a keynote speech at a RCM workshop in Lund, Sweden, in June 2014. CONVEX was also represented at a NERC-sponsored one-day workshop event on Global Climate Models in London. The meeting examined how to best use climate model data and considered the uncertainty of this data brought together with other academics.

A project workshop held at The Royal Society in January 2015 brought together a wide range of policy makers, stakeholders and academics to discuss how the project results can be incorporated in policy guidance and future research. To coincide with this event we produced a guidance document on the use of UKCP09 in light of CONVEX results. The next set of climate projections for the UK (UKCP18) will now include high resolution climate model projections.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Transport

URL http://research.ncl.ac.uk/convex/
 
Description CONVEX has aimed to promote the use of project results in providing information for the management of the risk of flash flooding through providing policy guidance. To meet this aim a report on the "First realisation of future changes in hourly rainfall over the southern UK with a convection-permitting model" was provided to DECC/Defra in March and a guidance report on the strengths and limitations of climate projections from coarse resolution models has been produced as an internal Met Office deliverable, and this will be prepared for wider dissemination. Work looking at future changes in short intense downpours using the 1.5km climate model was also presented to DECC in October 2014 and the Chief Scientific Advisor to Wales in June 2014. The Met Office has subsequently run additional model simulations over other areas e.g. the northern UK domain, which will allow a comprehensive UK-wide analysis. The project is also collaborating with CEH Wallingford who are taking output from the 1.5km climate model and running it through their grid-to-grid hydrological model, to examine flood impacts. We also worked with CH2M Hill and UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR) to apply the outputs from CONVEX to obtain improved estimates of changes in intense rainfall, providing guidance on uplift factors to be applied to improved planning for sewer design. UKWIR have announced a further round of funding on this topic on the back of this work. A project workshop at The Royal Society in January 2015 brought together a wide range of policy makers and stakeholders to discuss how the project results can be incorporated in policy guidance. This included the release of a guidance document on the use of UKCP09 in light of CONVEX results. High resolution climate projections will now be incorporated in the next set of UK climate projections (UKCP18). The project also led to the production of new datasets which have the potential for a wide application. Additional NERC funding was obtained for the construction of a 1km gridded hourly rainfall product for the UK. This is to be made available in collaboration with CEH Wallingford who provide a similar product at the daily timescale. Following the demonstration of the added value of convection permitting resolution within the CONVEX project the original work has now been extended to cover the norther half of the UK with the support of NERC and commercial bodies. In addition, an ensemble of convection-permitting (2.2km grid spacing) runs are now being carried out over the UK as part of the next set of UK Climate Projections, to be delivered in 2018 (UKCP18). This is the first time an ensemble of climate simulations has been run at such high resolution, and will allow us to estimate uncertainties in projections at km and hourly scales. The project has gained a high public profile - our paper "Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model" generated a lot of media interest including interviews on TV and radio. There was coverage in several national newspapers - including The Times, Independent and Guardian. In total 93 print/online articles (excluding social media) covered the research. An article titled "Batten the hatches as summers to have more heavy downpours" written for The Conversation website (a website for academics) got over 10,000 hits in the first day. This has increased awareness of the potential for increased flash flooding in the UK as a result of climate change.
Sector Environment
Impact Types Societal

 
Description Academic peer review group member for LWEC Climate Change Impacts report card for Water and Biodiversity, 2012-2013
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
 
Description Citation in CIWEM UDG Rainfall Guide
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Improved guidance for sewer design in context of changes in intense rainfall under climate change. This guide is used by urban drainage practitioners and engineers.
 
Description EPA review - Invited Reviewer, U.S. EPA's Literature Syntheses Describing Climate Change Effects on Water Quality
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Expert meeting on "Weather and Climate Related Extreme Events"
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Guidance on storm sewer design in response to changes in UK intense rainfall via UK Water Industry Research
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Research on projected changes in intense rainfall has led to the publication of a water industry (UKWIR) technical guide on "Rainfall Intensity for Sewer Design". The resultant rainfall intensity change estimates derived from CONVEX research are, in general, higher than existing UK guidance suggests. Sewer flooding frequency and volume, and frequency of pollution events were also investigated for five locations; indicating that these are also likely to increase in the future. A further funding call is underway to facilitate further work is to add confidence to the results produced and to inform future UK guidance.
URL http://ukwir.forefront-library.com/report/94658/Reports/90265/Climate-Change/90275/Stormwaters/98130...
 
Description Invited Expert Reviewer, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report 2016
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description LWEC water report card update - advisory committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Prof Fowler Member of BSI B/505/21/11
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guidance committee
 
Description Work to develop the next set of UK climate projections (UKCP18). This will include running the first ensemble of convection-permitting climate simulations, which will allow an estimate of uncertainty in UK projections at hourly and km-scales. The results from CONVEX provided the motivation for downscaling to such high resolution.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
 
Description ERC Consolidator's Award
Amount € 1,990,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 06/2014 
End 05/2019
 
Description FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage
Amount £250,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/S017348/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2019 
End 01/2020
 
Description GCRF Living Deltas Hub
Amount £15,287,248 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/S008926/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2019 
End 05/2024
 
Description NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Programme
Amount £161,390 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/N012852/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2016 
End 09/2017
 
Description ONE Planet NERC Doctoral Training Programme
Amount £6,000,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2019 
End 09/2024
 
Description Production of a gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK
Amount £50,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2015 
End 12/2015
 
Description Rainfall Intensity for Sewer Design
Amount £30,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 15/CL/10/16-1 
Organisation UK Water Industry Research Ltd 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2014 
End 11/2014
 
Description SINATRA: Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding
Amount £2,636,166 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2013 
End 04/2017
 
Description Standard grant
Amount £629,510 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/R01079X/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2018 
End 03/2021
 
Description Storm Risk Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Networks (STRAIN)
Amount £161,390 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/N012852/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2016 
End 12/2016
 
Title High resolution (1.5km) climate model projections for the UK. 
Description This provided the first climate simulations (for the southern UK) of a 1.5km regional climate model (RCM) which offers improved representation of small-scale processes such as convection (conventionally this is parameterised). This has lead to the development of an understanding of the relationships (and associated processes) between atmospheric and thermodynamic drivers and extreme rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales. Further, new projections of changes in short-duration rainfall has been provided. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The next set of UK climate projections (UKCP18) will include an ensemble of km-scale climate simulations for the UK. This will provide users/stakeholders with better information on changes in sub-daily changes in rainfall which was beyond the modelling capabilities of UKCP09. Further model simulations have been undertaken following the success of the CONVEX model runs. Similar experiments have now been completed over the northern UK as part of the NUTCAT project looking at nutrient transfers in UK catchments. High resolution runs have also been undertaken for Singapore and CONVEX researchers co-wrote "Singapore's Second National Climate Change Study - Climate Projections to 2100 - Science Report" (2015). 
 
Title Hourly gridded 1km rainfall dataset for UK 
Description 1km gridded precipitation data developed using 1900 gauge records and disaggregating CEH gear daily dataset 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact None so far 
 
Title Hourly rainfall dataset for UK 
Description Hourly quality controlled precipitation dataset assembled for the UK 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2014 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact None as yet 
 
Description Met office 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Post-doc Steven Chan located at Met Office working directly within Regional Climate Change team led by Lizzie Kendon
Collaborator Contribution Computing time, data storage, staff time for supervision etc
Impact Many outputs - all listed under relevant sections
Start Year 2011
 
Description Prof Fowler leads GEWEX cross-cut 
Organisation Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project
Country United States 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Prof Fowler leads the GEWEX cross-cut on sub-daily precipitation extremes
Collaborator Contribution Partners are part of the cross-cut which is developing a global dataset and publishing on this
Impact Westra et al. (2014) paper
Start Year 2013
 
Description CEH visit for KE proposal 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Initial handover meeting with CEH under the KE proposal which will facilitate update and dissemination of the gridded dataset. Code (for quality control and gridding of gauge data) from Newcastle and Bristol was handed over to CEH with initial testing taking place. A follow-up visit will be undertaken when appropriate to derive maximum benefit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Article in The Conversation about new Nature Climate Change paper 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Wrote an article for the conversation which had over 50,000 hits in the first day

Lots of interest and emails from the public etc
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Article published in Environmental Research Web 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact An accessible review of a CONVEX research article was written for Environmental Research Web, an online community website dedicated to science, policy and engagement. This provided a summary of research published in Environmental Research Letters examining how intense rainfall (and flash flooding) is related to temperature for the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/62021
 
Description Attendance at 1st ClimEx Symposium, Munich 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Attendance at symposium to discuss extreme rainfall 'Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events: Risks and Perspectives for Water Management'. Discussions with project partners from Germany and Canada, with follow up discussions on interactions via Skype.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description CEH wallingford seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Fowler, H.J., 2015. Benefits of very high resolution (km-scale) models for understanding changes in heavy precipitation. Invited seminar. CEH Wallingford, 10th June 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description CIWEM Urban Drainage Group Spring Conference 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on "A wetter future..." which disseminated research investigating improved sewer design under changes in intense rainfall and resulted in questions and debate. A further round of funding has been instigated by UKWIR following on from this work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.ciwem.org/knowledge-networks/groups/urban-drainage/events/past-events--presentations.aspx
 
Description CONVEX 2012 Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation workshop facilitator
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The first CONVEX extreme rainfall workshop was held at Reading University on 17th & 18th April 2012. This brought together potential academic and non-academic users of project outputs with climate modellers.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Challenges for RCM evaluation and application when moving to high resolutions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion and promoted awareness of project results.

Developed involvement in ongoing research in high resolution climate modelling.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Conference of Parties (COP) presentation, Peru 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Results were presented on high resolution climate model results at events for the European Union and United Nations with discussion about how they might influence global knowledge on future impacts and responses.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Convened conference session at EGU General Assembly 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Convened a session of six talks on intense rainfall observations, datasets and processes. Led to an invitation to participate in the 1st ClimEx Symposium in Germany, engaging with researchers from Bavaria and Canada, including the Canadian environment agency.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/orals/22780
 
Description Dept For Energy and Climate Change visit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Talk presented to DECC on use of high resolution climate models with discussion about future incorporation in policy and applications.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Downscaling and Uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Invited Talk at Theme of the year, IMAGe, NCAR, Boulder, CO, US on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description EGU session convening 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact A well attended session was run at EGU with discussion and potential future collaboration identified. The session was titled "Improving the representation of climate using high resolution climate and NWP models"

This event formed a basis for future discussions with the high resolution modelling community in Lund, Sweden with CONVEX playing a key role in these.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Flood & Coast Conference 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation on "New science on high-intensity rainfall and flood implications" which disseminated research investigating improved sewer design under changes in intense rainfall and resulted in questions and debate. A further round of funding has been instigated by UKWIR following on from this work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.floodandcoast.com/index.php
 
Description GEWEX(GHP) meeting in France 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact GEWEX(GHP) annual panel meeting in Paris, France.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Hourly and multi-hourly extreme precipitation climatology for the UK and long-term changes in extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact This work therefore analyses newly combined hourly rainfall gauge data from a number of different sources to establish an up-to-date, spatially extensive, sub-daily precipitation climatology for the UK. Precipitation observations are analysed and presented for a range of accumulations from 1 hour to 24 hours.

This work presents analyses showing the spatial variability of annual and seasonal UK sub-daily precipitation, including means and variability but with a focus on both the frequency and intensity of extremes. Extreme events are defined using a range of methods including fixed thresholds, Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) thresholds issued by the UK Flood Forecasting Centre, annual maxima and extreme value theory using a peaks-over-threshold approach.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description ITV border news - Fowler (11.1.16) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Live interview on the cumbrian floods Dec 2016 on ITV border news
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Impact of different convection permitting resolutions on the representation of heavy rainfall over the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Fosser, G., E. J. Kendon, and S. C. Chan, 2016: Impact of different convection permitting resolutions on the representation of heavy rainfall over the UK . Talk at 2016 EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012,2016
 
Description Improved understanding of extreme rainfall 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation poster presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Poster at Earth Systems Engineering Symposium 2012, July 3-5, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Intense Rainfall and Flash Flooding Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was a workshop targeted at practitioners and academics to disseminate the outputs from CONVEX and was held at The Royal Society in London. The event included production of summary documents for the research which was also presented by researchers. Keynote speakers included those from DEFRA, the EA, CCRA2, CH2M Hill, TfL and the water industry. The event included panel discussion and debate. The event resulted in increased contact with researchers about the project and its outputs, with particular interest in the gridded rainfall dataset being produced. This developed into a collaboration for the open access hosting of this data with CEH.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description International conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Delivered a talk titled 'Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes', primarily focussed on changes in historical rainfall (including UK SINATRA data) but also on use of the convection permitting model simulations run in CONVEX. The talk resulted in discussions with researchers from Maynooth University, providing our perspectives as data users for their provision of climate services, and on the possibility of acquiring additional sub-hourly rainfall data from the United States for future analyses. Further discussions took place with members from the meteorological community.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Into the Blue event in Manchester 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Ran stall at Into the blue event examining flash flooding. Lots of interest from audience, schools, media etc. Won award as part of this.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Invited talk at international RCM workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Involvement in future development of high resolution climate models.

Increased awareness of and interest in CONVEX.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Is Heavy Rain More Realistic in a Very High Resolution Climate Model? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 92nd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, January 22-26, New Orleans, USA.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Chan, S. C., E. J. Kendon, N. M. Roberts, M. J. Roberts, H. J. Fowler, and S. Blenkinsop, 2016: Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations . Talk at 2016 EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011,2016
 
Description Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited talk at CMOS-AMS Congress 2012, Montreal, Canada,

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description New Scientist article Jan 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview with New Scientist magazine for understanding climate change role in recent UK floods
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22930554-700-understanding-climate-changes-role-in-the-uks-re...
 
Description Ny Alesund symposium 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact The Ny-Ålesund Symposium is a high-level event that brings together 45 global leaders from politics, science and business. This year's symposium theme is "Navigating Climate Risk", and is hosted by the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ine Eriksen Søreide.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.ny-aalesundsymposium.no/2018/About_the_symposium_2018.shtml
 
Description Poster presented 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A poster was presented on 'Development and application of
a UK sub-daily rainfall dataset' at the Royal Met. Soc. conference on 'High Impact Weather and
Climate' in Manchester, 6-8 July, 2016.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Presentation at NCAS flash flooding forum 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Ongoing forum on flash flooding for UK researchers to share information etc.

New contacts made
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation at TU Berlin 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Talk sparked questions and discussion.

Increased awareness of research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Press release for Nature Climate Change Paper 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Coverage in over 90 print/online articles. A large number of hits on the project website. National and local TV and radio interviews.

Coverage in over 90 print/online articles.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Press release on rainfall intensity on hottest days 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact This was a press release for research published in Nature Geoscience to disseminate results with a potential high impact due to relevance to future risk from flash flooding. There was some coverage of this in the national media (Daily Express).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Prof hayley fowler talk at GEWEX bi-annual conference, Canmore, Canada 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact GEWEX bi-annual conference, Canmore, Canada
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Public Lecture in Newcastle on 4th Dec 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Public Lecture in Newcastle on 4th Dec 2018
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Quantifying Robust Changes in Extreme Precipitation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Invited talk at "Quantifying robust changes in the water cycle on large scales", Reading University

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Quantifying robust changes in extreme precipitation: The CONVEX project. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact British Hydrological Society meeting on 'Hydrological challenges and emerging solutions in urban areas', Centre for Life, Newcastle, 26th September 2012.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Quantifying robust changes in extreme rainfall: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Seminar to Durham University Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Six monthly stakeholder newlsetters 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Two page newsletter summarising progress in the project, along with details of outputs, events and related work of interest.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Sniffer - Climate Services: Developing the UK Community Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited to this workshop to discuss the 'climate services' community and the need to develop partnerships or networks to better deliver and engage in climate services initiatives in the UK and Europe. Consideration and discussion was given of how can we inform UK and European delivery of climate services and identify research needs, knowledge gaps and potential innovations in climate services. This was hosted by Sniffer, a registered charity delivering knowledge-based solutions to resilience and sustainability issues.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Stephen blenkinsop AGU: Understanding Rainfall Extremes Across Temporal Scales: From Process Understanding to Practical Application, Washington DC, 10-14 Dec, 2018 (poster) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact AGU: Understanding Rainfall Extremes Across Temporal Scales: From Process Understanding to Practical Application, Washington DC, 10-14 Dec, 2018 (poster)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Sub- and multi-day precipitation extremes in high resolution Met Office regional climate model simulations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Met Office has completed two high-resolution (12-km and 1.5-km) regional climate model simulations. Extreme value theory is used as diagnostic tool for the above two simulations. Overall, our results indicate that the use of higher resolution explicit convection permitting models has lead to some improvements in the simulations of high impact precipitation extremes.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Talk at Royal Met Soc: Predicting future trends in convective storms over the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A talk at the National Royal Met Soc Meeting in October 2016 on "Predicting future trends in convective storms over the UK". This included results from CONVEX and subsequent NUTCAT project that extends high resolution model simulations to include the northern UK, as well as early results from UKCP18.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Talk at Royal Society of Edinburgh meeting on flooding and climate change 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Event at Royal Society of Edinburgh on climate change and flood risk - talks by various experts and debate in the evening. Attended by public and practitioners alike (over 100 attending)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Talk at workshop (KNMI, Netherlands) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Small workshop on convective rainfall extremes at KNMI, Netherlands.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Talk to Estates Business Group, Alnwick Castle 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Fowler, H.J., 2015. Future-proofing for climate change impacts. Invited seminar to the Estates Business Group, Alnwick Castle, 2nd July 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description The CONVEX project - Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation poster presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A key focus of CONVEX is the representation of the CONVective EXtremes that are important contributors to flood generating events. By using models operating at different scales of space and time the CONVEX project aims to improve our understanding of key atmospheric processes and their representation in climate models and in turn improve our projections of extreme rainfall. It is envisaged that this knowledge will enable better projections of future flood risk.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Two presentations at EGU, Vienna 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact 2 talks started questions and discussion and promoted project within high resolution modelling community.

Prompted further discussions within the high resolution modelling community including at subsequent specialist workshop in Lund, Sweden.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description UKWIR workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Outcomes from research using the high resolution climate models to assess the implications of changes in intense rainfall for urban sewer design were presented to water company representatives. The application and implementation of these results in new guidelines was discussed. Further research funding has subsequently been announced by UKWIR.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Water in Future Cities - RCUK Water Showcase 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact CONVEX research was presented as part of project dissemination at the Water in Future Cities - RCUK Water Showcase. A number of follow-up requests for information were received.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description World Climate Research Programme Workshop on Weather and Climate Extremes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presentation and discussion on grand challenge on extremes for WCRP with aims of addressing problems associated with global observational data including availability, access, quality and use of appropriate, relevant indices. Working groups were set up to address a number of themes and international collaboration established.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description attended BIRS Workshop 16w5092 Uncertainty Modeling in the Analysis of Weather, Climate and Hydrological Extremes and gave invited talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact talk at scientific workshop in Canada (maths and stats in climate). about 40 attendees
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description dukem of northumberland talk 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Fowler, H.J., 2015. What can we expect with climate change? Invited seminar to Duke of Northumberland Estate, Alnwick Castle, 5th November 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description engagement with channel 4 about winter storms 2013-2014 programme 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact discussion with channel 4 about their programme on winter storms 2013-2014 and what to include and other experts to contact

Not known yet
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description talk expert meeting on extreme weather 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Fowler, H.J., 2015. Benefits of very high resolution (km-scale) climate models for understanding changes in heavy precipitation. Expert meeting on "Weather and Climate Related Extreme Events", European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 18-19 March, 2015.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description won LWEC short-film competition 2013 to make "Flood Force" with Northumbrian Water 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact won LWEC short-film competition 2013 to make "Flood Force" with Northumbrian Water to advise local businesses in the northeast of England about climate change

Lots of interest from local businesses and new contacts
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description • BBC Weather World documentary 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact BBC Weather World documentary (August/September 2015) [national/international impact]. Interviewed and presented in programme on natural flood management work and community engagement work in Haltwhistle as part of SINATRA
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015