Case studies for the development of a forest-specific risk toolbox for investment

Lead Research Organisation: University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences

Abstract

We are losing forests at a rate of circa one football pitch every 3 seconds. Urgent and large scale financing is required to prevent further deforestation and forest degradation. Yet, securing sufficient and long-term investments in carbon-related forest assets is a challenge, partly because of the liability of reversals and because the risks associated with such investments are perceived as either high or unknown. Better information on risks of forest loss are needed. We therefore propose a knowledge exchange forest-specific risk-toolbox for adoption by the investment community. Five Demonstrator Case Studies will be used to illustrate how NERC science can be converted and used in meaningful ways by the financial sector interested in forest assets. The five case studies are structured along key investment themes reflecting current and forecasted demand for forest investments (Timber, Afforestation/ Reforestation, REDD+, Voluntary Carbon Market and Forest Bonds). We propose to leverage the ongoing NERC KE network 'Forest-Finance risk network: towards stable investment environments' (thereafter referred to as Network -NE/IO22183/1). Key deliverables to this ongoing work include a database of experts and tools for the assessment of risks of forest loss. Early findings highlight that while significant expertise and datasets in the UK are available, the financial community requires demonstration for their potential use (Davies & Patenaude, in press).

We request NERC funding for a period of 12 months to support the following three activities: the development of the forest specific risk toolbox to be adopted by the forest investment community; the identification of missing risk assessment opportunities and tools; and the dissemination of the demonstrator case studies illustrating how NERC data and research can be converted into a form that can be readily used. The continuous support from our existing (as well as new) partners (including Willis RE Ltd., ForestRe Ltd., the Global Canopy Programme, Verified Carbon Standard Ltd, Enviromarkets Ltd. Ecometrica Ltd, Bosques Amazonicas Ltd., Acclimatise Ltd., The Edinburgh Centre on Climate Change, and the Forest Research) is a clear demonstration of the need for this KE activity. Combined, they will contribute more than £100,000 in-cash and in-kind to this KE initiative. Our Knowledge Translator will effectively develop the toolbox, bring together the case studies and proactively engage with the users.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Forests cover approximately 30 percent of the world's land area, yet they are being lost at a rate equivalent to one football pitch every three seconds. Long-term financial investment is needed to maintain these forested areas, yet forest carbon-related investments are often perceived as risky, as they suffer from permanence risk due to losses resulting from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Improved information on risks of forest loss is needed to reduce the uncertainty around such investment. Davies, Patenaude and Locatelli, in collaboration with Forest Research, conducted research to understand how existing tools can help financial institutions assess forest exposure to natural disturbances risks. This was conducted alongside a project aiming to quantify those risks, including one project that looks at wind risk. "We pull trees down and measure how resistant they are to this. We then use modelling to look at this resistance across different species, forest stands and management practices." The research, featured as part of BBC Four's programme Oak Tree: Nature's Greatest Survivor, is feeding directly into new tools and products developed and used by some of the private sector. Methodology and model to assess pest and disease risk to UK forest carbon projects were also developed. Notably, the UK Woodland Carbon Code is the standard for forest carbon projects in the UK. The code supports the creation of new woodlands to sequester carbon for the voluntary carbon markets. It was launched in 2011 to increase private investment in woodland creation, and to ensure a high standard of UK woodlands where carbon sequestration is robustly audited and verified. As of 30 Sept 2015, there were 102 validated projects encompassing 3,421 hectares of woodland, with another 106 projects (12,196 ha) awaiting validation. As part of the application process, each project must assess risk of woodland loss due to natural disturbances (e.g. pests and disease) and anthropogenic factors (e.g. legal/social). Once this risk is assessed, a percentage of the woodland must be set aside to buffer potential losses. Traditionally, historical data have been used to conduct these risk assessments. When it comes to pests and disease however, historical data do not account for the expansion of pests and diseases into new ranges, changes in emergence patterns due to climate change, or newly introduced species. Also, existing data provide information on how damaging a pest or disease is to a tree species, but there is no single indicator that assesses the combined aggregated risks of pests and disease for tree species. Research in collaboration with the Forestry Commission and led by Davies has produced a methodology and model to better assess pest and disease risk to UK forest carbon projects. The findings highlight how risk assessments for carbon projects need to consider longer time scales (in the region of 100 years) and define risk differently from timber or health. It was demonstrated through a case study of the Woodland Carbon Code and a sample of pest and diseases. For example, pests and diseases that change the aesthetic (and therefore value) of the wood are a risk to the timber industry, but as the tree doesn't die, aren't viewed as a risk for carbon projects. The model developed incorporates key information usually missing from pest risk assessments, including percentage likelihood of arrival and establishment, rate of spread, and percentage mortality. This has led to further funding from NERC to work with other collaborators, including ForestRe - an insurer specialising in insurance and reinsurance products for forestry and tree crops globally - and the Forestry Commission to understand what likely effect climate change induced drought will have on tree mortality and to expand the existing pest and disease work for new audiences and forest types. Publications: The nature of Innovation Funds (KE Fellowships) is such that publications aren't the primary objective, but some publications arose from this project as listed in previous sections.
Exploitation Route The aim of the project was to provide tools for a variety of end users to use academic information on risks to forest ecosystems. This has been achieved. Please consult the follow up project to see the list of impacts.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://forestrisks.net/
 
Description As a direct result of ForestRe's involvement in the project, ForestRe has launched a novel wind risk insurance product that is underpinned by the research led by the University of Edinburgh. "We expect to generate seven figure premium income in this growing market in the first year," said Phil Cottle, Managing Director of ForestRe Limited. [a] As a result of Edinburgh's pest and disease risk modelling, ForestRe is currently investigating the development of a pest and disease risk product to fill a much needed void in the sector. "The potential market for such a product probably runs in to hundreds of millions of dollars," said Cottle. "Our ability to service that market with a product that draws on leading-edge science, which is attractive to forestry owners, and profitable for us is due, in no small part, to working with the Edinburgh team to harness the outputs of NERC-funded research." [a] Pest and disease risk management model informs forestry management policy and practice The Forestry Commission has also been partners in the NERC funded projects led by Edinburgh. The collaborations have led to an effective exchange of knowledge that has enabled the Forestry Commission to incorporate the research findings, which have practical implications and economic benefits, into their business practices. An example of this is how insights into pest and disease risk is influencing management practices and processes. "This project is enhancing our understanding of risk," said Dr Pat Snowdon, Head of economics and climate change at the Forestry Commission. "Woodlands in the UK face a growing number of risks from pest and disease threats. Assessing these is essential in enabling us to develop resilient woodlands for the future and in underpinning important policy initiatives such as the Woodland Carbon Code." [b] These changes in management practices will take years to implement and the economic benefits resulting from reduced losses in forestry stock, will accrue over decades. "There are enormous economic losses that are likely to be avoided as a result of implementing these insights," said Snowdon [c]. Forestry projects that comply with the Woodland Carbon Code attract carbon sequestration credits, which can then be traded, making them an attractive investment proposition. The Edinburgh researchers, notably Susan Davies the project's research Associate, have provided a robust method for assessing how much carbon sequestration capacity is at risk of being lost to pest and disease, which reduces uncertainty for potential investors. The relationships built through the projects have led to new collaborations, including: a new collaboration between the University of Edinburgh (Dr Simon Mudd), NERC British Geological Survey (Dr MD Hurst and Dr C Foster, Co-Investigators) and industry partners, which recently won funding under the NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Call. The award is Software for quantifying shallow landslide hazards to transportation infrastructure under changing climate and forest management (NE/N01300X/1), £101,436 [15 Jan 2016 - 14 Jan 2017]. · ForestRe commissioned work from Professor Martin Wooster and Dr Thomas Smith, King's College London, to look at fire risk in China. · Input to European Forest institute (EFI) FRISK Network. Davies was invited to attend events held by EFI, to offer advice from the risk network projects to EFI who are setting up a European wide forest risk network (FRISK). Evidence: [a] Cottle, Phil (Managing Director, ForestRe Limited). [b] NERC 'The pest and disease risk to UK forest carbon projects'. [c] Snowdon, Pat (Head of economics and climate change, Forestry Commission). Media: · BBC Four 'Oak Tree: Nature's Greatest Survivor' Broadcast on BBC Four three times between 1 Oct 2015 and 7 Oct 2015 . · 'Genevieve Patenaude: Forests' Research in a Nutshell [video series] University of Edinburgh · European Forest Institute's FRISK-GO project features Susan Davies in the videos 'Added Value of a European Forest Risk Facility' and 'Susan Davies, University of Edinburgh' · ForestRisks website
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description ForestRe Ltd - impact on practice
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact ForestRe Ltd is a London-based company, that specialises in the design of insurance and reinsurance products for forestry and tree crops worldwide. It constantly seeks better information on potential losses to forests from natural disturbances in order to develop better insurance products. It has worked closely with various experts in the Forest Finance Risk Network over the last few years to obtain such information. The contacts were made via the network. In addition, ForestRe will be a partner to the new NERC PURE project (NE/M008541/1) that arose out of the Forest Finance Risk Network which will work with ForestRe to develop potential insurance products for drought and pest and diseases which are currently largely absent from the market. Development of such insurance would have a significant impact on global forest markets.
 
Description Forestry Commission Preparation for Unpredictable Threats
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The Forestry Commission is responsible for the sustainability of UK Forests. An invite-only seminar was held hosted jointly by the Forestry Commission and Scottish Natural Heritage on 'New approaches to preparing for unpredictable threats'. The researcher was invited to contribute to the workshop which aimed to seek advice on management decisions for future sustainability, for example whether or not it was advisable for commercial timber production to be dominated by Sitka Spruce.
 
Description Influenced training of practitioners on tools available to assess natural disaster risks to forests estates
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Trained forest practitioners on most up to date scientific knowledge on risks to UK forest estates, and the tools available to manage these risks.
 
Description Participation in advisory committee for the management of risks to the national forest estate - Mike Perks
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Changes in decision related to species plantations - to ensure resilience of forest stock to future threats and risks.
 
Description Technical Seminar Forest Research (NRS)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The researcher was asked to give a technical seminar on 'Translating the science of natural forest disturbance into risk management advice for the finance sector'. The seminar was provided to Forest Research staff but was also accessible online to related institutions. The aim was to educate the audience on how to adapt their research to be applicable and useful to a finance audience including insurers, investors and carbon standards involved in the forest sector. The seminar was based on the findings of the Forest Finance Risk Network and also the associated NERC PURE projects (NERC/PA 13-021 and NE/M008541/1).
 
Description Woodland Carbon Code Risk Buffer
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The Forestry Commission operates the Woodland Carbon Code which is the standard for woodland carbon projects in the UK. Not all carbon sequestered under these projects can be sold as carbon credits, a portion must be set aside in a buffer against future losses. The Forestry Commission has sought advice from the researcher on how big this buffer should be to cover potential losses from natural hazards such as wind, fire and pest and diseases. The researcher used her expertise gained from the Forest Finance Risk Network and also the PURE projects that arose from this network (NERC/PA 13-021 and NE/M008541/1) to provide recommendations to the working group on these buffers. The recommendations are provided here: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf The report recommended that the Woodland Carbon Code committee consider moving to a fixed buffer system. At this time, each project certified under the code had to conduct a risk assessment prior to project commencement, which was then independently verified, and used to assess the amount of carbon credits set aside as a buffer against future losses. The report suggested replacing this with a fixed amount for each project. Following this recommendation the Committee reviewed the proposal and in 2018 the Woodland Carbon Code system changed to a fixed buffer system.
URL https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-...
 
Description EFI Network Fund
Amount € 88,176 (EUR)
Organisation European Forest Institute 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 03/2018 
End 04/2020
 
Description EFI Short Scientific Visit
Amount € 2,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Forest Institute 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 10/2017 
End 03/2018
 
Description Enterreg Sudoe Project
Amount € 1,820,916 (EUR)
Organisation European Union 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 07/2016 
End 06/2019
 
Description NERC Knowledge Exchange fellowship to Susan Davies
Amount £203,343 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/P006477/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2016 
End 10/2019
 
Description NERC PURE Associates
Amount £21,254 (GBP)
Funding ID PA 13-021 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2013 
End 05/2014
 
Description NERC PURE Associates Follow on Funding
Amount £144,590 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/M008541/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2014 
End 03/2015
 
Description Royal Society Entreprise Fellowship
Amount £90,000 (GBP)
Funding ID Entreprise Fellowship 
Organisation Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) 
Sector Learned Society
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2019 
End 04/2020
 
Description Service level agreement to Dr. Mike Perks
Amount £5,000 (GBP)
Organisation Government of the UK 
Department Forestry Commission Scotland
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2018 
End 12/2018
 
Title Global survey of information requirements on natural disturbance risks to forests across the forest sector 
Description A global survey was conducted to establish perceptions of forest stakeholders in relation to natural disturbance risks to forests such as wind, fire, pest and disease and drought. Over 300 forest stakeholders from a range of sectors were identified and surveyed using contacts from previous projects, a literature review and a snowball technique. Sectors covered by the survey included forest managers; forest timber and carbon project developers; land owners; investors; forest fund managers; insurers/reinsurers; forest insurance brokers; and consultants/advisers. An online survey was developed and sent to these organisations. It asked questions about their perception of natural disturbance risks to global forests, their experience of losses from their own projects; details of how they assessed such risks to their own projects and any information requirements that they might have that they would like NERC to provide. 72 responses were received . 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The survey revealed that whilst fire and wind are major sources of loss, they can easily be insured against, whereas drought and pest and diseases can rarely be insured. Insurance is possible for fire and wind as currently available information is adequate to calculate premiums, whereas it is not generally available for pest and disease and drought riskier to a lack of required information. Insurers are interested in better wind/fire information, but the wider sector is more concerned about better information on pest and diseases and drought precisely because these risks cannot be insured against. A summary of the results is being sent to participants to promote knowledge on risk perceptions and assessment techniques but has also provided input to inform the KE Fellowship. The information will be used to identify and promote relevant UK research to survey participants and also to inform priorities. In particular, the Fellowship will focus on the key areas of pest and disease and drought information. A publication is in development. 
 
Title Database creation - on Future forest risks and forest suitability given droughts - Susan Davies & Mike Perks 
Description This database provides information on species suitability to survive various levels of drought conditions. This is to inform the suitability of species selection under different scenarios of climate change. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Changes in Forestry Commission UK plans and species management 
 
Title FORESTORM - Barry Gardiner 
Description The database has been introduced to potential end-users in the financial sector (previously it was accessible by, and mainly targeted at, the scientific community). The database lists all notable European storms causing damage to forests from 1950 to present. Includes estimate of damage by volume to forest, and secondary and tertiary damage, economic impact and wind speeds during storm 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2010 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Used in many scientific articles looking at impact of climate change on European forests 
URL http://www.efiatlantic.efi.int/portal/databases/forestorms/
 
Title ForestGALES - Barry Gardiner 
Description The model was expanded to be suitable to new species, based on the work conducted as part of the projects. The Model initially was designed to predict wind risk to a few species/forest stands and individual trees (mainly coniferous) but the work has been expanded. ForestGALES is now adapted to a wider range of species that are of commercial value and at risk. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Widely used model around the world (UK, France, Canada, Denmark, Japan, New Zealand). Mainly a research tool but more and more beginning to be used to support forest policy decisions. 
URL https://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestgales
 
Title Pest and Disease Model 
Description During the work done for the Forest Finance Risk Network it became clear that there was no model currently existing that quantified the risk of the future threat of pest and diseases (P&D) to UK woodland in a way that could be used by insurers and carbon standards. Existing research focuses on historic trends in P&D and individual P&D. The Woodland Carbon Code is the standard for woodland carbon projects in the UK and is developed by the Forestry Commission. Not all carbon sequestered in these projects can be sold as carbon credits. Some carbon has to be set aside against future losses. As part of the calculation some carbon has to be set aside against losses from P&D. This model therefore looks at the current and future P&D threats and provides the first model that attempts to quantify the risks from all of these and provide a single overall potential % loss to the woodland carbon projects over the next 100 years from them. This model is interactive and provides a tool that can be made to make decision on the adequacy of the buffer. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The model was funded by the first PURE Associates call (PA 13-021). The Forestry Commission and Forest Research have both looked at the model and it has already influenced debate on how to assess future risks from P&D. The researcher has spoken once at a technical seminar at Forest Research on the model and is to speak again in December at the Forestry Commission to an audience of staff working in the plant health area. Pat Snowdon, Head of Economics and Climate Change, was the partner to the PURE project and described the model to the Defra Chief Scientist who has asked for more information. A report is being finalised for him to this end. The team successfully applied for follow on funding from the NERC PURE call to embed the outputs of this model in the operational procedures for the woodland carbon code and to adapt the model for wider use in the forest sector and also for insurance purposes. This project is underway (NE/M008541/1). The idea and demand for the model came out of the Forest Finance Risk Network projects, as did the collaborative partnership for the new PURE project. Network members will contribute to the development of the model 
 
Title R version of ForestGALES wind risk model - Tommaso Locatelli 
Description ForestGALES, a Model to predict wind risk to forest stands and individual trees, will now be maintainted as an R package from now on 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Not yet - the formal R package should be released in spring/summer 2018 
URL https://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestgales
 
Title Tree-pulling database - Tommaso Locatelli 
Description Collection of tree-pulling data for Spanish Eucalyptus globulus and French Fagus sylvatica (beech) 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Too early to say - working with EFI to create a searchable online database 
 
Title Variance-Based sensititvity analysis of ForestGALES model 
Description Global sensitivity analysis of wind-risk model ForestGALES using copula methods to investigate correlations between model inputs 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Too early to say 
 
Description Consultancy commissioned by Forestry Commission Scotland whether lessons on risk management from the finance sector support forest policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland 
Organisation Government of the UK
Department Forestry Commission Scotland
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Prior to employment at the University of Edinburgh, the researcher spent 7 years in risk management in investment banking. A Forestry Commission Scotland representative met the researcher at a meeting to discuss uncertainty in planning for risk relating to plant health. FCS were commissioning reports from different sectors to see if lessons from other sectors on how they manage risk, could inform policy on climate change adaptation in Scottish forests. The researcher was commissioned to write a report on how the finance sector measures and manages risk and how this might inform such policy. Whilst the report was primarily focused on finance techniques it was also supplemented with examples of how this might impact on forest policy using the experiences from the NERC funded risk projects. Plus the collaboration was forged following the meeting at which the researcher introduced finance techniques to the discussion on plant health which she was invited to during the case study project.
Collaborator Contribution As above, commissioning the report on how lessons on risk management from the finance sector could support forest policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scottish forestry.
Impact This report was completed in 2015. Dr Tomasso Locatelli and Bruce Nicoll of Forest Research developed a new report from this which takes the original report from 2015 and restructures it adding in further implications for forest policy. Locatelli is the lead author, and Davies - the researcher from this project - now a Knowledge Exchange Fellow contributed to the new report as part of her Fellowship and is the second author. The new report was funded by ClimateXChange and was lpublished in 2018. Link: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2015
 
Description EFI European Forest RIsk Facility 
Organisation European Forest Institute
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The European Forest Institute (EFI) is in the process of setting up a European Forest Risk Facility (FRISK). They are seeking input from experts on the scope and design of this network. The researcher has attended 2 events - EFI's annual conference held in Nancy, France in 2013, and also a workshop held in Bavaria, Germany in 2014, to provide her input to the design. Her expertise was directly sought by the team as her experience running the Forest Finance Risk Network is extremely useful to them. In particular she alerted them to the wider interest in the network from the finance sector. She also features in their promotional video talking of the interests of this sector
Collaborator Contribution Members of the FRISK network in turn are now part of the Forest Finance RIsk Network and contributing their expertise to the case study work that is underway for the second year of the network.
Impact n/a
Start Year 2013
 
Description Facilitation of new collaboration that received NERC funding from Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Call 
Organisation Forest Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Part of the role of knowledge exchange is to facilitate collaborations. During this project the second NERC call on Environmental Risks to Infrastructure came out When the first call was made as a PURE funded researcher the researcher provided feedback which resulted in the use of the environment as means to reduce risks to infrastructure being added to the call details. When the second call came out the researcher raised the project with various network members to try and identify projects relating to forestry. This included Bruce Nicoll at Forest Research. Bruce said he was keen to do something on using trees to reduce landslides. The researcher wrote to PURE to ask if the use of the environment to reduce risk to infrastructure was also eligible under the second call as it was in the first and to determine if a project of this nature would be eligible and of interest. PURE confirmed. The researcher brought this to the attention of the Business Development Executive Stuart Simmons at the University of Edinburgh who had previously indicated he had industry contacts interested in such work. During the meeting Simon Mudd was identified as a potential academic collaborator at the University of Edinburgh. Stuart then followed this lead up to pull together the consortium and a bid was compiled and the collaboration successfully won funding.
Collaborator Contribution The researcher facilitated the development of the collaboration but did not write the bid. Stuart brought new partners including Coffrey Geotechnics, Network Rail and Transport Scotland. The partners wrote the bid and successfully won funding of £146, 515 for the project: Software for quantifying shallow landslide hazards to transportation infrastructure under changing climate and forest management.
Impact Again the Knowledge Exchange Fellow facilitated the collaboration. But is not involved in the project or outcomes. The main outcome from the facilitation was successful funding of the project.
Start Year 2016
 
Description New report on Lessons on risk management from the finance sector to inform policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland's forests 
Organisation ClimateXChange
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution When the Fellow was a researcher on NERC project NE/J019720/1 in 2015, she was engaged as a consultant by Forestry Commission Scotland to produce a report on how lessons from the finance sector could influence adaptation to climate change in Scotland's forests. This report was focused on the financial techniques for risk management with some examples of how this might be used in the forest sector. Forest Research developed a new report from this original report with funding from ClimateXChange, which built on the original report and added in further examples and potential application to the forest sector. The Fellow is second author on this report.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Research are leading on the new report and contributing further examples and applications of how the financial risk management techniques outlined in the report might be applied to forestry.
Impact A report was published in 2018 with the Fellow as second author (Susan Davies, University of Edinburgh). This was published jointly with ClimateXChange and Forest Research/Forestry Commission. Details: Title: 'Lessons on risk management from the finance sector for climate change adaptation in Scotland's forestry sector' Authors: Tom Locatelli*, Susan Davies, Bruce Nicoll*, Kate Beauchamp* August, 2018 *Forest Research, University of Edinburgh Link to pdf: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2017
 
Description New report on Lessons on risk management from the finance sector to inform policy decisions on climate change adaptation in Scotland's forests 
Organisation Forest Research
Department Northern Research Station
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution When the Fellow was a researcher on NERC project NE/J019720/1 in 2015, she was engaged as a consultant by Forestry Commission Scotland to produce a report on how lessons from the finance sector could influence adaptation to climate change in Scotland's forests. This report was focused on the financial techniques for risk management with some examples of how this might be used in the forest sector. Forest Research developed a new report from this original report with funding from ClimateXChange, which built on the original report and added in further examples and potential application to the forest sector. The Fellow is second author on this report.
Collaborator Contribution Forest Research are leading on the new report and contributing further examples and applications of how the financial risk management techniques outlined in the report might be applied to forestry.
Impact A report was published in 2018 with the Fellow as second author (Susan Davies, University of Edinburgh). This was published jointly with ClimateXChange and Forest Research/Forestry Commission. Details: Title: 'Lessons on risk management from the finance sector for climate change adaptation in Scotland's forestry sector' Authors: Tom Locatelli*, Susan Davies, Bruce Nicoll*, Kate Beauchamp* August, 2018 *Forest Research, University of Edinburgh Link to pdf: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/3249/lessons-on-risk-management-from-the-finance-sector-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-scotlands-forestry-sector.pdf
Start Year 2017
 
Description Single Tree 
Organisation European Forest Institute
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Developing wind risk models for individual trees either in forest or the urban environment
Collaborator Contribution Danish Technical University: Field measurements of tree motion and wind and project coordination European Forest Institute: Wind risk models for individual trees and connecting risk models with airflow models University of Western Ontario: Wind tunnel tests on individual trees
Impact - New, DTU-developed, advanced laser-based technique to scan the wind field around a single tree in nature and to characterize and quantify its effect on the near-surface wind. - Bridge the gap between the single-tree and a small forest by large scale physical modeling in the new and unique indoor WindEEE Dome facility in Canada. - A range of computer flow models with varying complexity to numerically investigate and reproduce the wind field of the observations.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Single Tree 
Organisation Technical University of Denmark
Country Denmark 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Developing wind risk models for individual trees either in forest or the urban environment
Collaborator Contribution Danish Technical University: Field measurements of tree motion and wind and project coordination European Forest Institute: Wind risk models for individual trees and connecting risk models with airflow models University of Western Ontario: Wind tunnel tests on individual trees
Impact - New, DTU-developed, advanced laser-based technique to scan the wind field around a single tree in nature and to characterize and quantify its effect on the near-surface wind. - Bridge the gap between the single-tree and a small forest by large scale physical modeling in the new and unique indoor WindEEE Dome facility in Canada. - A range of computer flow models with varying complexity to numerically investigate and reproduce the wind field of the observations.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Single Tree 
Organisation Western University
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Developing wind risk models for individual trees either in forest or the urban environment
Collaborator Contribution Danish Technical University: Field measurements of tree motion and wind and project coordination European Forest Institute: Wind risk models for individual trees and connecting risk models with airflow models University of Western Ontario: Wind tunnel tests on individual trees
Impact - New, DTU-developed, advanced laser-based technique to scan the wind field around a single tree in nature and to characterize and quantify its effect on the near-surface wind. - Bridge the gap between the single-tree and a small forest by large scale physical modeling in the new and unique indoor WindEEE Dome facility in Canada. - A range of computer flow models with varying complexity to numerically investigate and reproduce the wind field of the observations.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Wind risk in Viet Nam 
Organisation UNIQUE forestry consultants GmbH
PI Contribution Assessing Wind damage risk for Acacia plantations in Thua Thien Hue province of Vietnam
Collaborator Contribution Forest Research: research; UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH: data provider
Impact https://www.unique-landuse.de/images/publications/vereinheitlicht/2017-09_Wind_Study_Vietnam_final.pdf
Start Year 2017
 
Description Article on the Forest Finance Risk Network included in Commonwealth Forestry Association newsletter at CFA request 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Commonwealth Forestry Association contacted the risk network to ask for an article about the network and its activities which was published in their Newsletter
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Attendance at invite-only workshop on New approaches to preparing for unpredictable threats organised by the Forestry Commission and Scottish Natural Heritage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The Forestry Commission and Scottish Natural Heritage organised a workshop to seek input and advice from experts on threats to UK forests in order to develop policies and practice to reduce risks. The researcher, Susan Davies, was invited to provide expertise primarily on the work to assess pest and disease risk but also to provide input on broader risk management techniques from her background in risk management in the City and involvement in previous NERC projects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description BBC4 -Oak tree: Nature's Greatest survivor 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A BBC4 filming crew and their presenter (Dr George McGavin) visited our team at Forest Research to film. Our team members, (incl. T. Locatelli) were filmed using tree pulling techniques to show the strength of this species and it's resistance to windthrow (an oak tree was pulled following the tree-pulling protocol to assess tree resistance to overturning). The experiment and associated interviews then became part of the BBC4's 1.5-hr long "Oak tree: Nature's Greatest survivor" documentary.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06fq03t
 
Description Dissemination to Woodland Carbon Code Executive and Advisory Boards 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Forest pest and disease risk analysis work presented to Woodland Carbon Code governance groups, leading to a change in approach for assessing risk under the Code
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.forestry.gov.uk/carboncode
 
Description Forest Risks Website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A new Forest Risks website was developed to promote the activities of the NERC funded projects on natural disturbance risks to forests. Sections were added on wind, fire, pest and disease, drought and anthropogenic risk. The website provides links to academics and researchers working in these areas as well as summaries of their work together with contact information.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://forestrisks.net
 
Description Forest wind risk in a changing climate 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The presentation and discussions informed practitioners about species planting selections: More specifically, on the impact of species and management choices on wind risk to forests in south-west Europe under a changing climate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.ecca2015.eu/
 
Description Guest lecture to students on Forests and Environments MSc about risk management and NERC projects on natural disturbance risks to forests 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Fellow was invited as a guest lecturer to present to Masters students on the Forests and Environment MSc at University of Edinburgh about risk management and her work on NERC funded projects in relation to forests and natural disturbance risks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Institute of Chartered Foresters - meeting and conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation and engagement with participants on new methods developed as part of these projects, for assessing pest and disease risk in forestry in the UK
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL https://www.charteredforesters.org/
 
Description International Conference on Wind and Trees 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Organised international workshop and conference for researchers and practitioners interested in quantifying or understanding the impact of wind on forests
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wind-and-trees
 
Description Interview by European Forest Risk Facility (FRISK-GO project) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The FRISK-GO project of the European Forest Institute aimed to develop a business plan and structural framework for a European wide risk network. The researcher, Susan Davies, was interviewed by the project to provide her expertise and thoughts on the potential applications of such a network. In particular, Susan was interviewed as she was felt to have a unique perspective on the information requirements of the finance sector including insurers and investors. The resultant interview was promoted on their website.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.friskgo.org/media-center/video.html
 
Description Managing risk on the national forest estate 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Liaison with lead planners for risk assessments on the national forest estate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
 
Description Seminar to Forest Insurance Companies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Provided an update on methods for calculating wind damage risk to insurance agents responsible for forest insurance. This enabled insurers to update their approaches/methods to the latest scientific know-how.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Storm risks in the European Union 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Professionals and practitioners from all over Europe attended this meeting, where results on quantification of risks to forest ecosystems were presented, and approaches used or developed, shared. Training was also offered. Forest management at the EU level and associated approaches were modified as a result of this meeting and wider findings on incoming risks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://forrisk.efiatlantic.efi.int/Nouvelle-traduction-Final-Conference-Silviculture.html?lang=fr
 
Description Technical seminar to Forest Research staff at Alice Holt 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The researcher, Susan Davies, was invited to give a technical seminar to the staff of Alice Holt research station covering the pest and disease work and also the outputs from previous NERC projects on natural disturbance risks to forests.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Technical seminar to Forest Research staff at the Northern Research Station 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The researcher was invited to give a technical seminar focusing on the risk network and case study projects and the requirements of the finance sector for forest risk information. The seminar was attended by a large number of Forest Research staff but was also broadcast online to a wider audience of related organisations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Understanding Forest Abiotic and Biotic Risks and Their Interactions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation to international group to discuss "What added value can a European Forest Risk Facility provide?"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.eficent.efi.int/portal/events/?bid=1121
 
Description Wildfire Research Workshop 2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact On account of her expertise gathered from previous NERC projects and the current Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, Susan was invited to participate in the second gathering of a new working group focused on coordinating wildfire research in the UK. The working group was hosted by Rob Gazzard (Forestry Commission) and Julia McMorrow (University of Manchester). The aim of this specific workshop was to define projects that would lead towards the development of a more appropriate Fire Danger Rating System and associated policy in the UK. More generally the working group and workshop also aim to coordinate the development of wildfire related social, economic and environmental research to address policy and practical challenges. Working group participants from the wildfire sector include academics/researchers, policymakers, fire agencies, local/national government, the Forestry Commission and its subisidiaries, and so forth. Around 15 people attended this event at which a range of possible research projects were identified and prioritised. The group gave feedback on each concept and projects were allocated to individuals to define and take forwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Wind Risk in Scottish Forests 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Demonstration to Forest Districts in Scotland on how to implement wind risk tools within their management planning across Scotland
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Wind and Trees Facebook Page 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Facebook page created as a fora for practitioners and researchers alike, interested in wind damage to trees to compare and share experience and information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015,2016,2017,2018
URL https://www.facebook.com/groups/windandtrees/
 
Description Workshop Forest Wind - Mathematical Modelling of Wind Damage Risk to Forests 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This workshop brought together forest wind risk modellers and experts in airflow modelling, climate modelling and engineering risk analysis. The workshop took place over 2.5 days with an emphasis on discussion and debate over the future directions for mechanistic modelling.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://colloque.inra.fr/forest-wind/Home/News/Summary
 
Description Workshop for PhD students that are part of the NERC Doctoral Training Partnership 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Knowledge Exchange Fellow provided training and support to NERC E3 Doctoral Training Partnership funded PhD students. The Fellow found placements for 3 PhD students in a the private sector and Forestry Commission using her contacts.She also hosted and chaired a 1-day workshop, with the theme: risk and resilience, which was used to raise awareness in students of the importance of creating impact from research and issues that arise when applying research. The Fellow presented at this workshop and invited other industry practitioners to provide additional presentations of their experience in using academic research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017