Will climate change in the Arctic increase the landslide-tsunami risk to the UK?

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: Earth Science and Engineering

Abstract

Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides, and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide offshore Norway covers an area larger than Scotland and contains enough sediment to cover all of Scotland to a depth of 80 m. This huge slide occurred 8,200 years ago and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with a run up >20 m around the Norwegian Sea and 3-8 m on the Scottish mainland. The UK faces few other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat of the Storegga Slide tsunami. The Storegga Slide is not the only huge submarine slide in the Norwegian Sea. Published data suggest that there have been at least six such slides in the last 20,000 years. For instance, the Traenadjupet Slide occurred 4,000 years ago and involved ~900 km3 of sediment. Based on a recurrence interval of 4,000 years (2 events in the last 8,000 years, or 6 events in 20,000 years), there is a 5% probability of a major submarine slide, and possible tsunami, occurring in the next 200 years. Sedimentary deposits in Shetland dated at 1500 and 5500 years, in addition to the 8200 year Storegga deposit, are thought to indicate tsunami impacts and provide evidence that the Arctic tsunami hazard is still poorly understood.

Given the potential impact of tsunamis generated by Arctic landslides, we need a rigorous assessment of the hazard they pose to the UK over the next 100-200 years, their potential cost to society, degree to which existing sea defences protect the UK, and how tsunami hazards could be incorporated into multi-hazard flood risk management. This project is timely because rapid climatic change in the Arctic could increase the risk posed by landslide-tsunamis. Crustal rebound associated with future ice melting may produce larger and more frequent earthquakes, such as probably triggered the Storegga Slide 8200 years ago. The Arctic is also predicted to undergo particularly rapid warming in the next few decades that could lead to dissociation of gas hydrates (ice-like compounds of methane and water) in marine sediments, weakening the sediment and potentially increasing the landsliding risk.

Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs. This forms a work flow that starts with observations of past landslides and evolves through modelling of their consequences to predicting and costing the consequences of potential future landslides and associated tsunamis. Particular attention will be paid to societal impacts and mitigation strategies, including examination of the effectiveness of current sea defences. This will be achieved through engagement of stakeholders from the start of the project, including government agencies that manage UK flood risk, international bodies responsible for tsunami warning systems, and the re-insurance sector.

The main deliverables will be:
(i) better understanding of frequency of past Arctic landslides and resulting tsunami impact on the UK
(ii) improved models for submarine landslides and associated tsunamis that help to understand why certain landslides cause tsunamis, and others don't.
(iii) a single modelling strategy that starts with a coupled landslide-tsunami source, tracks propagation of the tsunami across the Norwegian Sea, and ends with inundation of the UK coast. Tsunami sources of various sizes and origins will be tested
(iv) a detailed evaluation of the consequences and societal cost to the UK of tsunami flooding , including the effectiveness of existing flood defences
(v) an assessment of how climate change may alter landslide frequency and thus tsunami risk to the UK.

Planned Impact

Our project will provide the scientific basis for decisions by three major types of stakeholder.

UK Flood-Risk Management (Environment Agency; Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs; Scottish Government): Project results will be disseminated to DEFRA and the Environment Agency (EA) who manage the risk of flooding in England and Wales, and Scottish Government that has responsibility for policy on flood management in Scotland. Our results will be used within a multi-risk framework for UK flooding that includes storm surge and rainfall sources. The EA will be involved in Work Block 6, which will utilise their 'National Flood and Coastal Defence Database' of both government and third party assets. Our analysis of potential magnitude of landslide-tsunami generated flood inundation, frequency and societal cost would be incorporated with their previous initiatives such as 'Risk Assessment for Flood and Coastal Defence Strategic Planning (RASP)'. RASP provides a flexible hierarchical method for assessing flood risk from multiple sources, and strategic prioritisation of flood defences and targeting of flood warning and emergency preparedness. We will inform the Department of Business, Innovations and Skills (as they have interest in foresight and analysis of future risks to the UK), Department of Energy and Climate Change (for offshore energy structures), and Department of Transport of project results.
The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) has a mandate from the international community to co-ordinate tsunami early warning and mitigation in the North Atlantic. They have established a tsunami information centre and have a series working groups, including those for 'hazard assessment, risk and modelling', and 'regional tsunami warning system architecture'. They provide the correct route for project results to inform future warning and mitigation strategies for landslide-tsunami. They also provide a forum for exchange of technical information with European partners (such as those involved with the EU Transfers FP6 project in 2006-2009). We will report to the two IOC working groups on our tsunami modelling and estimates of UK risk and vulnerability. Key project results and final report will be disseminated through the IOC.

Re-Insurance Sector: Willis and their Research Network will be strongly involved as formal project partners, especially in building of geospatial data bases and estimates of societal cost. Willis is the world's 3rd largest insurance and re-insurance broker and the Willis Research Network (WRN) that they created is the world's largest collaboration between academic partners worldwide and the insurance industry. They facilitate access to other WRN members working on related risks, and access to the global insurance sector through WRN meetings. Willis will provide their staff time for project meetings, workshops, and ad-hoc discussions with project members. The consortium project will have access to the global insurance sector through additional meetings hosted and organised by Willis. Willis will host two of the PDRA positions in their offices in London, and during these visits the PDRAs will learn how geospatial tools are used by industry.

Wider Users: The subject of infrequent but potentially high impact landslide needs to be conveyed carefully to a wider (non-scientific) audience, as shown by previous press coverage of landslide-tsunamis in the Canary Islands. Project results will be disseminated by press releases (from both NOC and NERC Arctic Research Programme Office) and by a dedicated website. The cruise will form part of the NOC Classroom-at-Sea project to involve school children. We seek to involve the NERC Arctic Research Programme's Knowledge Exchange co-ordinator with this wider dissemination of the project and its results.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description The implications of various landslide generated tsunamis on the UK.

The importance of key parameters such as slide directionality, speed and volume.
Exploitation Route Further scenario modelling.

The inclusion of uncertainty quantification techniques.
Sectors Environment

 
Description A write-up by Willis Towers Watson (re-insurance sector) as part of their "Map Series" blog: http://willis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=f0d53a10cfd34b4797370004244b3224
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Other
Impact Types Societal

 
Description Collaboration with Willis 
Organisation Willis Group
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution A new collaboration with Willis has been started to provide data for this project. An NDA is currently being agreed. No reports yet available.
Start Year 2012
 
Title Fluidity 
Description Computational fluid dynamics and ocean/atmospheric solver utilising control volume/finite element methods, mesh adaptivitiy, and a suite of parameterisations for turbulence, fluid-structure interactions etc 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2017 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact Fluidity is used as the basis for a number of applications and further funding 
URL http://fluidity-project.org
 
Title Thetis 
Description A new (coastal) ocean model, in 2D and 3D, using finite element methods, and implemented via the Firedrake framework. Includes an adjoint capability for sensitivity analyses and optimisation. Also includes a preliminary mesh adaptivity capability. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2016 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact Basis for ongoing collaboration with the wider ocean model development community. 
URL http://thetisproject.org/
 
Description Poster presented at parliament under Set for Britain 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented poster at UK Parliament
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Press interest in research presentation/publication 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Associated with research publication doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.08.007, a talk was given at the EGU conference which was widely picked up by the media, e.g. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27224243

Multiple requests for interviews from the press.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014