IMPETUS: IMproving PrEdictions of Drought To inform USer decisions
Lead Research Organisation:
Newcastle University
Department Name: Sch of Engineering
Abstract
Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems. The 1975-76 UK drought had a devastating effect on the UK economy causing an estimated £3,500M loss to agriculture, £700M of subsidence damage to buildings and a £400M cost to the water industry (present day figures adjusted for inflation). Forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early action enables stakeholders, such as public water supply and agricultural companies, to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.
Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.
IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.
We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models.
Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.
Droughts are complex events, with impacts dependent on meteorological, hydrological and land surface factors as well as on water demand and management. Consequently, drought forecasting has many components: forecasting meteorological drought (deficit of rainfall), agricultural drought (soil moisture deficit) and hydrological drought (decline in surface water and groundwater), forecasting the consequences of drought for water availability and forecasting the effects of drought management. All of these are uncertain and any improvement in decision-making needs to consider all aspects of the forecast process. IMPETUS focuses on meteorological and hydrological forecasting linked to innovative methods for forecasting local domestic water demand during drought.
IMPETUS is an interdisciplinary proposal that brings together scientists from the meteorological, land surface, surface water and groundwater communities and social scientists from the water demand and forecast usability communities. The project involves internationally-leading scientists and social scientist from three NERC Research Centres (NCAS, BGS and CEH), four leading universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and Southampton), the Met Office and ECMWF. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. This will be achieved by improving meteorological, hydrological and water demand forecasts and how they are combined to produce drought forecasts. This will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for decision making. IMPETUS addresses WP2 (Forecasting Drought) of the UK Droughts and Water Scarcity call.
We envisage IMPETUS producing a range of high-impact publications in meteorology, hydrology, hydro-meteorological forecasting, water demand modelling and the usability of drought forecasts. The outcomes from IMPETUS will also benefit a wide range of stakeholders. These include informing the Environment Agency (EA) on the ability of the hydrological models used by EA for water resource management to represent drought, and furthering the understanding that underpins key operational projects, including the Hydrological Outlooks project. IMPETUS outcomes will also benefit the Met Office and ECMWF through an improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and recommendations for improving the representation of drought in operational meteorological forecast systems and climate models.
Finally, IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Particular examples of this have already been identified through initial discussions with stakeholders including precipitation forecasts for Thames Water and soil moisture forecasts for the agricultural sector.
Planned Impact
The overarching aim of IMPETUS is to improve the forecasting of UK drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will lead to the development of improved decision-making processes. Given the substantial socioeconomic impacts of drought in the UK, there is a broad range of non-academic stakeholders who will be benefit from the outcomes of IMPETUS:
1. The Met Office and ECMWF: IMPETUS outcomes will benefit the UK operational meteorological forecasting centres (i.e. the Met Office and ECMWF) by: i) the improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and their representation in climate models and operational meteorological seasonal and decadal forecasting systems, ii) an evaluation of operational forecasting systems for drought, iii) recommendations for improved forecasts systems and climate models (e.g. recommendations for the resolution of climate models) and iv) an improved understanding of how to produce hydro-meteorological forecasts for UK drought.
2. The Environment Agency: Part of the EA's role is to protect the environment by minimising the impact of droughts while ensure adequate public water supply. IMPETUS will benefit the EA by: i) providing insight into how to improve communication and facilitate the uptake of drought forecasts, ii) addressing the degree of model complexity appropriate to the forecasting of drought evolution across different timescales, iii) providing new methods to combine hydro-meteorological information in drought forecast systems and iv) providing guidance on how to integrate uncertain drought forecasts into decision-making process.
3. End-users of drought forecasts: Many economic sectors are sensitive to the impacts of UK drought including public water supply, agricultural, retail, finance and health. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Initial discussions with stakeholders have already led to decision-relevant metrics being identified (e.g. one month and 3-month ahead precipitation over the Southeast England for Thames Water; one-month and 3-month ahead soil moisture deficit for drought planning in the agriculture sector).
4. Government departments (DEFRA, DECC): Policy-makers and government departments (in particular, DECC and DEFRA) are keen to reduce the negative socioeconomic impacts of drought, which may be possible if mitigation measures are enacted with enough warning. IMPETUS will benefit policy-makers by providing improved evidence-based guidance on the current capability to forecast UK drought.
5. Wider public interest: UK drought is an issue of intense interest to the wider general public (e.g. public discussion of the dry UK winter and spring in 2012; recurring public discussion about the 1975-76 UK drought). Through public engagement (via the project website, a Royal Society exhibition, public engagement material and media engagement - see impacts plans for more details) we will improve public understanding of the drivers of drought and our current capability to forecast UK drought.
1. The Met Office and ECMWF: IMPETUS outcomes will benefit the UK operational meteorological forecasting centres (i.e. the Met Office and ECMWF) by: i) the improved understanding of the drivers of meteorological drought and their representation in climate models and operational meteorological seasonal and decadal forecasting systems, ii) an evaluation of operational forecasting systems for drought, iii) recommendations for improved forecasts systems and climate models (e.g. recommendations for the resolution of climate models) and iv) an improved understanding of how to produce hydro-meteorological forecasts for UK drought.
2. The Environment Agency: Part of the EA's role is to protect the environment by minimising the impact of droughts while ensure adequate public water supply. IMPETUS will benefit the EA by: i) providing insight into how to improve communication and facilitate the uptake of drought forecasts, ii) addressing the degree of model complexity appropriate to the forecasting of drought evolution across different timescales, iii) providing new methods to combine hydro-meteorological information in drought forecast systems and iv) providing guidance on how to integrate uncertain drought forecasts into decision-making process.
3. End-users of drought forecasts: Many economic sectors are sensitive to the impacts of UK drought including public water supply, agricultural, retail, finance and health. IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of drought on monthly to decadal timescales, which will enable stakeholders to better curb demand and more effectively manage diminishing water resources. In particular, IMPETUS aims to engage stakeholders and assess their needs for drought forecast information, co-producing drought metrics from forecasts to ensure that they support real-world decision-making. Initial discussions with stakeholders have already led to decision-relevant metrics being identified (e.g. one month and 3-month ahead precipitation over the Southeast England for Thames Water; one-month and 3-month ahead soil moisture deficit for drought planning in the agriculture sector).
4. Government departments (DEFRA, DECC): Policy-makers and government departments (in particular, DECC and DEFRA) are keen to reduce the negative socioeconomic impacts of drought, which may be possible if mitigation measures are enacted with enough warning. IMPETUS will benefit policy-makers by providing improved evidence-based guidance on the current capability to forecast UK drought.
5. Wider public interest: UK drought is an issue of intense interest to the wider general public (e.g. public discussion of the dry UK winter and spring in 2012; recurring public discussion about the 1975-76 UK drought). Through public engagement (via the project website, a Royal Society exhibition, public engagement material and media engagement - see impacts plans for more details) we will improve public understanding of the drivers of drought and our current capability to forecast UK drought.
Organisations
Publications
Richardson D
(2020)
Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach
in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Richardson D
(2018)
A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.
in International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Richardson D
(2018)
Weekly to multi-month persistence in sets of daily weather patterns over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean
in International Journal of Climatology
Shepherd TG
(2018)
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change.
in Climatic change
Vosper E
(2019)
Building a UK climate impacts and risk assessment community
in Weather
Description | A new data set of weather patterns developed by the Met Office has been investigated in relation to UK rainfall and drought climatology. Comparisons have been made with the well-known Lamb Weather Types, with the new weather patterns exhibiting significantly lower within-pattern rainfall variability. Weather patterns associated with drought in different regions of the UK have been identified, with the potential for building a drought prediction model based on these. An important research question opened up is whether there is a useful weather pattern forecast model that can be developed, and how this would compare to physically-based forecast systems such as the Met Office GloSea5 model. Other aspects of the weather patterns have been investigated, such as their persistence and how this could translate through to a forecast model. Predictions of rainfall based on weather patterns are currently under development. |
Exploitation Route | Using the knowledge of weather patterns causing drought, a forecast model that predicts these patterns would be useful in providing monthly to seasonal drought outlooks. Furthermore, the weather patterns are new in the literature, and results here may be built upon by other work relating to different aspects of UK or European climatology. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment |
Description | Doug had a secondment at the Met Office in summer 2016 and worked on the DECIDE statistical forecasting system. |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | EPA review - Invited Reviewer, U.S. EPA's Literature Syntheses Describing Climate Change Effects on Water Quality |
Geographic Reach | North America |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Expert meeting on "Weather and Climate Related Extreme Events" |
Geographic Reach | Europe |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Invited Expert Reviewer, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report 2016 |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | LWEC water report card update - advisory committee |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | British Hydrological Society Travel Grant |
Amount | £600 (GBP) |
Organisation | British Hydrological Society |
Sector | Learned Society |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 12/2017 |
End | 12/2017 |
Description | Climate Services-NOW |
Amount | £5,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Government of the UK |
Department | Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start |
Description | GCRF Living Deltas Hub |
Amount | £15,287,248 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S008926/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2019 |
End | 05/2024 |
Description | Met Office summer placement |
Amount | £4,500 (GBP) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2016 |
End | 09/2016 |
Description | ONE Planet NERC Doctoral Training Programme |
Amount | £6,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2019 |
End | 09/2024 |
Description | American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I presented my latest research at AGU to a mixture of academic professionals and students. The main outcome of this was lots of constructive debate surrounding my research which has influenced my work. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://fallmeeting.agu.org/2017/ |
Description | EGU General Assembly |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | A poster of recent findings related to the PhD was presented, reaching an audience of academics of various career stages. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I presented my latest research at an international conference on meteorology. An outcome of this talk was constructive feedback and potential linkages for collaboration. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.emetsoc.org/ems2017-aftermath/ |
Description | GEWEX(GHP) meeting in France |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | GEWEX(GHP) annual panel meeting in Paris, France. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Historic Droughts Symposium |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | The aim of the event was to foster discussion on using historical drought information to inform current drought decision-making. Several oral and poster presentations were given throughout the day, with networking between academic and industry/business sectors. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
URL | http://historicdroughts.ceh.ac.uk/content/historic-droughts-symposium-march-2016 |
Description | MaRIUS project "Drought Science & Management" Symposium |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | The event focussed on drought science and drought management, with a range of oral and poster presentations from academia, industry and regulators. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Ny Alesund symposium 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | The Ny-Ålesund Symposium is a high-level event that brings together 45 global leaders from politics, science and business. This year's symposium theme is "Navigating Climate Risk", and is hosted by the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ine Eriksen Søreide. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.ny-aalesundsymposium.no/2018/About_the_symposium_2018.shtml |
Description | Public Lecture in Newcastle on 4th Dec 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Public Lecture in Newcastle on 4th Dec 2018 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Royal Meteorological Society Impacts of Science conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | This was a conference for early-career researches in the field of atmospheric sciences. It was a good networking opportunity and chance to hear about the latest research from people in a similar field to my own. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.rmets.org/impactofscience |
Description | Seasonal Forecasting workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | This was a focussed workshop on current capabilities in seasonal forecasting of hydro-meteorological variables. I presented my latest research and had lots of fruitful discussions with other attendees that has helped me develop my own research. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | http://www.hydrology.org.uk/meetings_events.php?tp=2018-01-24 |
Description | Statistics in Hydrology Workshop, Adelaide (Australia) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | I took part and delivered a presentation at a workshop in statistical methods for hydrology. The workshop was attended by ~50 people from academia and industry. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.stahy2018.org/ |
Description | Talk to Climate Change Committee (Newcastle City Council) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Talk on climate science to Newcastle City Council Climate Change Committee in Jan 2020 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Talk to Estates Business Group, Alnwick Castle |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Fowler, H.J., 2015. Future-proofing for climate change impacts. Invited seminar to the Estates Business Group, Alnwick Castle, 2nd July 2015. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | dukem of northumberland talk |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Fowler, H.J., 2015. What can we expect with climate change? Invited seminar to Duke of Northumberland Estate, Alnwick Castle, 5th November 2014. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |