GLORIA - Global Learning Opportunities for Regional Indian ocean Adaptation

Lead Research Organisation: National Oceanography Centre
Department Name: Science and Technology

Abstract

The oceans are not warming evenly and those areas that are warming fastest are becoming the world's natural laboratories for research to increase scientific understanding, knowledge and tools to allow us to adapt wisely, efficiently and effectively in order to meet the challenges of a warming environment. Such 'hotspots' occur in all regions of the globe, from polar to tropical, and affect developed and developing countries. However, poor coastal communities in low-income countries are those where the impact will be felt most acutely, and where impacts of climate change are most likely to exacerbate existing inequalities and social tension.
There are no simple, conventional solutions to addressing adaptation to climate change in poor communities. Practical experience and scientific information from these areas is limited and there is an urgent need to improve and test the theories that underpins existing efforts. This project will develop an innovative rapid approach to integrate and apply global scientific and local information and knowledge. The approach will be applied in Madagascar, one of the poorest countries affected by a marine hotspot and will work as a case study for applying to other global hotspots. At its core is an expert workshop, which will bring together a multi-disciplinary team of world-leading researchers with experience from climate change adaptation on the larger, global-scale, regional experts and specialists with detailed knowledge of the hotspot area, and community representatives who can provide a rich local understanding, knowledge and context. Together they will identify key areas of environmental change and their likely consequences for local populations. They will explore adaptive solutions, develop recommendations for future action to minimize societal impacts on low-income communities in the hotspot region, and most use experiences and information from this participatory process to develop and test current theories for developing climate change adaptation strategies. The scientific insights generated by the research will be included in a synthesis paper, and in dissemination/awareness materials targeting the local audience.

While this project will not be able to test current theories by implementation, it will provide a valuable opportunity for intensive discussion and exchange on adaptive solutions between experts in the theory and coastal stakeholders who are intimately familiar with their own circumstances and needs. The outcomes from the project will therefore enrich current understanding of adaptation and adaptive capacity and generate proposals for revising it where necessary.

Planned Impact

GLORIA will deliver a variety of model outputs, from climate change projections through fishery recruitment; ecological assets and ecosystem services; to output from socio-environmental models for increasing food security. Spatially referenced information includes model output, a consolidation of environmental and socio-economic information (including local perceptions), supported by methodologies to develop new models, elicit input from local groups, and engaging these in activities to explore, design and implement adaptation options. GLORIA will enrich current understanding of adaptation and adaptive capacity, and thus benefit stakeholders at international, regional national and local levels.
Internationally GLORIA can inform policy implementation of intergovernmental organisations involved in planning and supporting sustainable development, food security and climate change adaptation programmes (UNESCO-IOC, UNEP, UNDP, FAO, GEF). For example, phase 2 of the UNDP International Waters Project, Agulhas and Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystem (ASCLME) Project will be launched in 2015. SAPPHIRE aims to enhance ocean governance and will directly benefit from GLORIA research, allowing a focused approach to planning and implementation of climate change adaptation options. The research will also benefit international humanitarian and environmental NGOs working with local communities in developing nations to alleviate poverty and prevent degradation of ecosystem services.
In the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region GLORIA will be a catalyst in the planning process for the new African Centre for Capacity Development in Ocean Governance (AfriCOG), a partnership of international bodies and individual specialists facilitating training and capacity development. The research builds both on information from Madagascar and empirical analyses from other coastal countries and island states (Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Mauritus). Outputs will therefore be relevant efforts by these countries to plan and implement measures to safeguard ecosystem services, alleviate poverty, and adapt to climate change for similar coastal communities. Beneficiaries also include the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), which works towards integrated development of the region and sees food security as a priority area; and the Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission (SWIOFC), which promotes sustainable utilization of living marine resource, taking due account of environmental, social and economic concerns. The research will also be of interest to the NEPAD Agency, the technical body of the African Union, which includes climate change and natural resource management one of its thematic areas. Outputs can also inform the emerging Science-Policy dialogue fostered in the Nairobi Convention.
GLORIA will benefit the project partner, SAGE, and be of recognized value to the Madagascar Government (see letters of support). Stakeholders at the workshop include Madagascar Fisheries Service officers representing Fisheries, Aquaculture, Control and Surveillance; representatives of Regione Atsimo Andrefana; community associations such as Projet d'Appui aux Communautes de Pecheurs (PACP); local fisher organisations and fishers acting as tour operators to supplement their income; locally Managed Marine Area networks such as Velondriake (http://velondriake.org) where community groups work with NGO and research partners to promote sustainable livelihoods, and Association sur Nosy Be, which provides community-based marine ecotourism in the cultural resort and barrier reef marine reserve; regional tourism officers and organisations such as WWF Madagascar, Tany Meva (national foundation to support local communities), and 'Blue Ventures', a charity supporting sustainable development, food security and poverty alleviation. These will benefit from discussions at the workshop, information syntheses, outline of adaptation options, and tools to support local decision-making processes.
 
Description Our findings can be summarised as:
1)
Forecasts of climate change and its impacts on the oceans
are important in vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Using the high resolution global models already
available may be more effective use of resources than for Madagascar to develop new regional models.
2) It is essential to attempt to understand and anticipate the impacts of climate change on
marine ecosystems and key species. There is a range of different methods available, each of which has positives and negatives
for application in Madagascar. There would be considerable value in undertaking a review of the different methods for determining
biological and ecological sensitivity and, based on that review, to develop an optimal, integrated methodology
for use throughout Madagascar
.
3)
Models are valuable tools for increasing understanding, synthesising and integrating available
knowledge and providing forecasts of future conditions and cumulative impacts. There would
be considerable value for Madagascar in developing a toolbox of modelling approaches,
covering conceptual, qualitative and quantitative models, to provide input and advice for
managers and decision-makers at all scales from local to national and regional.
4)
Research on communities should be undertaken with understanding of the overall context of
the community and the actions and processes in which it engages
and that impact on it .Supply chains and management institutions and rules are part of and
are important to communities.
5)
There are many different tools and approaches for working with communities in undertaking
research on vulnerability and adaptation. These include techniques such as mapping in
different ways, participatory approaches to develop timelines of key events, biological
inventories, listing
concerns and opportunities related to climate change and other stressors and others (e.g.
WWF - South Pacific Programme, 2009)
.
These can and should be integrated
with results and information from other scientific sources such as model forecasts of climate
change, results from scientific stock assessments and sensitivity assessments, and results of
participatory
modelling. The development of standard protocols for undertaking such
integration would encourage and facilitate holistic approaches to vulnerability assessment

The results of the project reinforced the critical importance of considering the cumulative impacts of individual stressors and drivers across the full socio-ecological system, both climate-related and others, when assessing vulnerability of marine-dependent communities. Such assessments and adaptation planning should not only consider the past and present but also be forward-looking and consider likely changes in the future. Participation by local experts and stakeholders is essential, enabling knowledge exchange while also contributing to local capacity-building, generating a sense of ownership, ensuring local knowledge is fully taken into account and that outputs are accepted by stakeholders as being legitimate.
Exploitation Route Wide use in developing action plans for adaptation to climate change for the marine resource dependent coastal communities.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment

URL http://gullsweb.noc.ac.uk/docs/gloria_workshop_report_final.pdf
 
Description Results from the climate change adaptation assessment informed climate change adaptation efforts in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and other regions where similar marine-dependent communities are also affected by rapid warming of adjacent seas.
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment
Impact Types Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Informing climate change adaptation efforts in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and other regions where similar marine-dependent communities are also affected by rapid warming of adjacent seas.
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
URL http://gullsweb.noc.ac.uk/
 
Description Sustainable Oceans, Livelihoods and food Security Through Increased Capacity in Ecosystem research in the Western Indian Ocean (SOLSTICE-WIO)
Amount £6,800,000 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/P021050/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2017 
End 12/2021
 
Title MEDUSA as a component of UK ESM 
Description MEDUSA (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification) is developed as an "intermediate complexity" plankton ecosystem model to study the biogeochemical response, and especially that of the so-called "biological pump", to anthropogenically driven change in the World Ocean. The base currency in this model was nitrogen from which fluxes of organic carbon, including export to the deep ocean, were calculated by invoking fixed C : N ratios in phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. However, due to anthropogenic activity, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has significantly increased above its natural, inter-glacial background. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact MEDUSA is a component model of UK ESM and as such it directly contributes to the future climate projections within the framework of IPCC 
URL http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/1767/2013/
 
Description Marine Hotspots 
Organisation Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean
Country Kenya 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution GLORIA consolidated scientific and traditional understanding of change to ecosystems and their services, through the development and sharing of techniques, knowledge and successful approaches between Madagascar and other marine hotspot regions.
Collaborator Contribution The Global Marine Hotspots Network provides a platform where information, lessons and outcomes can be shared from regions that are warming the fastest or regions where change is rapidly occurring. Temperature has a major influence on marine ecosystems, however the Network recognises that temperature is only one driver of change and encourages contributions from other researchers or any institutions where impacts are being studied or adaptation options being developed or implemented. The network promote and facilitate trans-disciplinary approaches that engage all stakeholders and researchers (across disciplines including physical, biological and humanities) to maximise the potential for research to translate into appropriate policy and sustainable and cost-effective on-ground adaptation.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving representatives of academia and marine resource relevant stakeholders in the following areas: oceanography, ecology, modelling, marine biology,management of marine resources, conservation, policy.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Marine Hotspots 
Organisation Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Department CSIRO Energy
Country Australia 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution GLORIA consolidated scientific and traditional understanding of change to ecosystems and their services, through the development and sharing of techniques, knowledge and successful approaches between Madagascar and other marine hotspot regions.
Collaborator Contribution The Global Marine Hotspots Network provides a platform where information, lessons and outcomes can be shared from regions that are warming the fastest or regions where change is rapidly occurring. Temperature has a major influence on marine ecosystems, however the Network recognises that temperature is only one driver of change and encourages contributions from other researchers or any institutions where impacts are being studied or adaptation options being developed or implemented. The network promote and facilitate trans-disciplinary approaches that engage all stakeholders and researchers (across disciplines including physical, biological and humanities) to maximise the potential for research to translate into appropriate policy and sustainable and cost-effective on-ground adaptation.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving representatives of academia and marine resource relevant stakeholders in the following areas: oceanography, ecology, modelling, marine biology,management of marine resources, conservation, policy.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Marine Hotspots 
Organisation Rhodes University
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution GLORIA consolidated scientific and traditional understanding of change to ecosystems and their services, through the development and sharing of techniques, knowledge and successful approaches between Madagascar and other marine hotspot regions.
Collaborator Contribution The Global Marine Hotspots Network provides a platform where information, lessons and outcomes can be shared from regions that are warming the fastest or regions where change is rapidly occurring. Temperature has a major influence on marine ecosystems, however the Network recognises that temperature is only one driver of change and encourages contributions from other researchers or any institutions where impacts are being studied or adaptation options being developed or implemented. The network promote and facilitate trans-disciplinary approaches that engage all stakeholders and researchers (across disciplines including physical, biological and humanities) to maximise the potential for research to translate into appropriate policy and sustainable and cost-effective on-ground adaptation.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving representatives of academia and marine resource relevant stakeholders in the following areas: oceanography, ecology, modelling, marine biology,management of marine resources, conservation, policy.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Marine Hotspots 
Organisation University of Sao Paulo
Country Brazil 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution GLORIA consolidated scientific and traditional understanding of change to ecosystems and their services, through the development and sharing of techniques, knowledge and successful approaches between Madagascar and other marine hotspot regions.
Collaborator Contribution The Global Marine Hotspots Network provides a platform where information, lessons and outcomes can be shared from regions that are warming the fastest or regions where change is rapidly occurring. Temperature has a major influence on marine ecosystems, however the Network recognises that temperature is only one driver of change and encourages contributions from other researchers or any institutions where impacts are being studied or adaptation options being developed or implemented. The network promote and facilitate trans-disciplinary approaches that engage all stakeholders and researchers (across disciplines including physical, biological and humanities) to maximise the potential for research to translate into appropriate policy and sustainable and cost-effective on-ground adaptation.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving representatives of academia and marine resource relevant stakeholders in the following areas: oceanography, ecology, modelling, marine biology,management of marine resources, conservation, policy.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Marine Hotspots 
Organisation University of Tasmania
Country Australia 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution GLORIA consolidated scientific and traditional understanding of change to ecosystems and their services, through the development and sharing of techniques, knowledge and successful approaches between Madagascar and other marine hotspot regions.
Collaborator Contribution The Global Marine Hotspots Network provides a platform where information, lessons and outcomes can be shared from regions that are warming the fastest or regions where change is rapidly occurring. Temperature has a major influence on marine ecosystems, however the Network recognises that temperature is only one driver of change and encourages contributions from other researchers or any institutions where impacts are being studied or adaptation options being developed or implemented. The network promote and facilitate trans-disciplinary approaches that engage all stakeholders and researchers (across disciplines including physical, biological and humanities) to maximise the potential for research to translate into appropriate policy and sustainable and cost-effective on-ground adaptation.
Impact This is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving representatives of academia and marine resource relevant stakeholders in the following areas: oceanography, ecology, modelling, marine biology,management of marine resources, conservation, policy.
Start Year 2016
 
Description GLORIA workshop held in Madagascar, 14-16 June 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Central to GLORIA research is a workshop held in Madagascar, 14-16 June 2016, where experts from the marine and climate sciences worked with Malagasy stakeholders to share information, explore adaptive solutions and develop recommendations for future action to minimize climate change impacts on marine-dependent, low-income communities.

Results from the workshop informed climate change adaptation efforts in Madagascar and elsewhere in the Western Indian Ocean and other regions where similar marine-dependent communities are also affected by rapid warming of adjacent seas.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://gullsweb.noc.ac.uk/