Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)

Lead Research Organisation: Sokoine University of Agriculture
Department Name: Fac of Forestry and Nature Conservation

Abstract

Central and Southern Africa (C&SA) exemplifies the issues that FCFA aims to address: a complex mix of remote and regional climate drivers that challenge conventional climate model simulations, high levels of poorly simulated multi-year climate variability, an extremely low level of investment in climate science relative even to other parts of Africa but particularly West Africa; high physical and socio-economic exposure to climate that projections indicate may become drier and more variable in the future; and low adaptive capacity resulting in decision-making and medium-term planning that is inhibited by significant political, institutional and economic barriers. Meanwhile economic growth and significant infrastructure planning is taking place within C&SA in the absence of adequate climate information.

Deficient understanding of many key climate features in C&SA is one barrier to the integration of climate information into decision-making. UMFULA will provide a step-change in climate science in C&SA. Our objectives include: (i) fundamental research into key climate processes over C&SA and how these are dealt with in models; (ii) a process-based evaluation to determine how models invoke change and whether that change is credible; (iii) production of novel climate products (Work Packages WP1-2) encompassing convection permitting and very high resolution (c4 km) ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations that will reveal processes of high impact events and as yet unexplored complexities of the climate change signal. We will also focus on neglected but critical elements of the circulation such as the links between C&SA and the role of local features including the Angolan Low, Botswana anticyclone, Angola/Benguela Frontal Zone, and the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge. Based on this research and through co-production with stakeholders we will generate improved and streamlined climate information for decision-makers (WP3).

We will use a deliberative and participatory methodology to test findings from FCFA pillars 1 and 2 with stakeholders based on deep engagement in two contrasting case studies: the Rufiji river basin in Tanzania, and sub-national decision-making in Malawi. They are carefully selected as exemplars of multi-sector, multi-stakeholder, and multi-scale decision situations which can be compared for transferable lessons on the effective use of climate services.

In-depth understanding of decision-making contexts, including political economy, theories of institutional change, and individual motivation from behavioural sciences will inform how to tailor and target climate projections for most effective use (WP4). The case study areas (WP5-6) will test these findings through a co-produced framework of C&SA-appropriate decision-making under climate uncertainty to identify robust climate services-informed intervention pathways (portfolios of policies and investments that could work well over a broad range of climatic and socio-economic futures). Our Capstone Work Package (WP7), and major outcome, will be the synthesis of best decision-making models and appraisal methods that are transferable in the African context and enable effective use of climate information in medium-term decision-making.

The seven UMFULA Work Packages cut across the three FCFA pillars to ensure maximum complementarity and integration. We are a consortium with world-leading expertise in climate science, decision science and adaptation research and practice, together with stakeholder networks and strong, long-standing relationships in C&SA. We comprise 5 UK and 13 African institutions.

Planned Impact

Who might benefit from our research? Case study participants: Rufiji river basin: the government River Basin Water Office and the public-private partnership Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania; southern Malawi: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation and Water Resources, Chikwawa, Nsanje and Thoyolo District Assemblies. Case study outputs will benefit multilateral development banks and the southern African Climate Resilient Infrastructure Facility-CRIDF, who advise on infrastructural development. National and regional decision-makers in C&SA and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Southern African Development Community, WATERNET, CRIDF. Programmes concerned with climate services, e.g. Global Framework for Climate Services, CCAFS, IRI, CLIVAR, ESPA, CARIAA ASSAR. Met Services in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania. Universities of Zambia and Yaounde. African citizens vulnerable to climate related risks, or reliant on infrastructure/resources that may be affected by climate change (now-40 years on).
How might they benefit from our research? Through deep engagement, national and local government and private sector stakeholders in both Malawi and Tanzania will be enabled to drive a process of improved use of climate services in decision-making processes. This is critical in both case study contexts which have been selected based on the climate risk to water and agriculture infrastructure and the implications it has for economic development. The process will be supported by the Met Services whose capacity will be built to produce country-specific contextualized projections based on the outputs of climate models given their responsibility in country to do so. Active engagement of Met Services within the case study co-production will also build partnerships that extend beyond the project lifetime and can inform on-going country policy processes: for example the development of the National Adaptation Plans. The ultimate aim is that improved use of climate services in decision-making benefits African citizens, not only in Malawi and Tanzania but also further afield, through the proactive communication of robust theoretical and applied findings to decision-makers across C&SA and further disseminated for use throughout SSA. By engaging with major initiatives such as GFCS (which is piloting programmes in both case study countries) we will have outreach and potential impact well beyond the two case studies. Univ Zambia & Yaounde and African Met Services will participate in a 'big science' project involving state-of-the-art high resolution models.
As a team we have a strong track record of applied research and proven impact in climate science and adaptation across Africa. Our approach includes
Co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes as the key methodology in the case studies; in which case study participants are engaged throughout the process and have co-ownership of the process and, by definition, the findings will be targeted to be of direct applicability and achieve maximum development impact.
Embedding impact in our management structures to maximize impact over the lifetime of the project and ensure post-project sustainability
1) Impact sub-group led by KULIMA
2) Advisory Panel, high level strategic guidance, through bi-annual TCs with representation from key regional organisations, public and private sector, donors and multi-laterals (eg agreed participation of World Bank staff)
A proactive approach to collaboration with other RPCs and the CCKE, eg invitation to sit on panels to maximise synergistic findings and outreach opportunities
Seizing opportunities for development of African capacity through providing bursaries to students in C&SA countries, making it a policy for senior team members and PDRAs to give guest lectures/research training sessions during C&SA visits (at university and other organisations eg Government) and offer some remote research co-supervision.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Participate in Advisory Committee, National Multi-stakeholder Forum and Regional Task Force
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Improved understanding of the water, land and environmental management for enhanced productivity.
 
Description Meeting with donors in Tanzania, November 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Supporters
Results and Impact Declan Conway and Christian Siderius met with representatives from various development partners, including UK, Germany, Italy and the EU, to present their work on climate change and water resource development in the Rufiji Basin of Tanzania. Very positive feedback was received afterwards on the usefulness of their work to inform future thinking.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Meeting with the Tanzania Met Agency, November 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact As part of the UMFULA project, a meeting was organised in November 2018 with the Tanzania Met Agency, to discuss UMFULA's climate science work, the Agency's activities, and generally long range and short range weather forecast.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Side event at Africa Water Week 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact LSE organised a side event at the Africa Water Week Conference in July 2016 in Tanzania as part of the FCFA-UMFULA and the SAHEWS projects. The side event was on "Climate resilience and the water-energy nexus in East and Southern Africa".

Two short presentations
Prof Declan Conway - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE
Prof Julien Harou, Manchester University

Panel discussion
Prof Japhet Kashaigili - Sokoine University of Agriculture
Mr Peter Oluoch Odhengo - Environment and Climate Finance, National Treasury, Government of Kenya
Mr Stephen Mooney - Department For International Development, DFID Tanzania

Declan Conway highlighted recent studies that demonstrate the significance of climate variability and climate change for hydropower and environmental flows, and present practical methods to integrate climate risks in sustainable water management. He presented the various challenges that climate variability presents to east and southern Africa's water-energy nexus.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.futureclimateafrica.org/news/data-key-to-climate-resilience-in-east-and-southern-africa/
 
Description Stakeholder workshop at the Rufiji River Basin Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Declan Conway (UMFULA PI) attended this final workshop on 25-26 June 2015. The main elements of the Rufiji Basin Decision Support System and the Basin Development Plan were presented and discussed with a range of stakeholders. Contacts were made and the UMFULA project was introduced to a range of key people from the region who expressed interest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015