HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa
Lead Research Organisation:
Stony Brook University
Department Name: Marine Sciences Research Centre
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
HyCRISTAL will have a positive impact on 7 groups of beneficiaries through the process and research outcomes.
1) COMMUNITIES IN THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN
Communities will have the opportunity to access, input to, and benefit via their livelihoods from the research. Development options and pathways for climate-smart fisheries/agriculture, sustainable water use, access & distribution, will enhance productive and WASH outcomes in the region with such measurable livelihood improvements as greater levels of savings or tradeable assets. At least 400 households will participate in the adaptation trials. Wider engagement will occur via community exchanges, district workshops and regional learning platforms.
2) WATER PLANNERS/MANAGERS IN GOVERNMENT & POLICY
Close links with resource planners and government policymakers (East African Community, Lake Victoria Basin Commission, Uganda National Water and Sewerage Co, Local Authorities) will facilitate the 2-way flow of information, tools & guidance needed to support livelihoods & water management. Training will be tailored to user needs and through inclusive participation, empower women & youth to co-design and better apply planning tools. These stakeholders will act as researcher-advocates and contribute to policy uptake via "fit-for-purpose" evidence of the pilot outcomes. Value-added impact of such interventions on the local economy & livelihoods will result from investments to Treasury & donors. Local/sub-national governments in the region now have devolved responsibilities for climate services and will also benefit from improved evidence of benefits.
3) INTERNATIONAL & BILATERAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS
These will benefit from robust quantitative & qualitative evidence to inform programmes of support to national innovation support systems (including advisory services, SME promotion, regulatory frameworks). USAID & EU, World Bank, UNEP, UNDP, WFP, WHO and others are active in this region and will be invited to participate in the high-level Learning Platforms.
4) NGOs
Close collaboration with international (Practical Action) & local NGOs (Rural Environment & Development Organisation, OSIENALA, Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern & Southern Africa) will inform their livelihood and WASH programs development and provide evidence of their own interventions and modes of working with pilot communities.
5) CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS (CSOs) & MEDIA
CSOs, national/sub-national farmer/fisher & urban organizations will benefit from evidence supporting lobbying for improved water services and climate-smart fisheries/agriculture management. Some CSOs already provide innovation support services (Uganda National Farmers Federation) and will be able to use the project findings to enhance such service provision. Engagement with CSOs & the media (local FM stations) will raise awareness of the research process and outcomes (planning information & decision tools). Wider coverage of the research & analytical methods will help to showcase benefits & attract future investment, stimulating collaborations beyond HyCRISTAL
6) RESEARCH INSTITUTES & MET SERVICES
HyCRISTAL will work with weather forecasters, hydrologists, hydrogeologists & users of medium-long-range forecasts, through project partnerships. These partners benefit via access to improved climate risk information and by strengthening utility of their climate services at regional to community levels.
7) PRIVATE SECTOR
African companies (Kisumu Water and Sewerage Company) will benefit from exposure to the knowledge products helping to inform their future business plans. Communities across the region will indirectly benefit from improved innovation support policies and interventions that are evidence based and tuned to the ways in which they seek support in their innovation & livelihood decision-making resulting in increased household capacity to invest in new livelihood options as current ones become unsusustainable
1) COMMUNITIES IN THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN
Communities will have the opportunity to access, input to, and benefit via their livelihoods from the research. Development options and pathways for climate-smart fisheries/agriculture, sustainable water use, access & distribution, will enhance productive and WASH outcomes in the region with such measurable livelihood improvements as greater levels of savings or tradeable assets. At least 400 households will participate in the adaptation trials. Wider engagement will occur via community exchanges, district workshops and regional learning platforms.
2) WATER PLANNERS/MANAGERS IN GOVERNMENT & POLICY
Close links with resource planners and government policymakers (East African Community, Lake Victoria Basin Commission, Uganda National Water and Sewerage Co, Local Authorities) will facilitate the 2-way flow of information, tools & guidance needed to support livelihoods & water management. Training will be tailored to user needs and through inclusive participation, empower women & youth to co-design and better apply planning tools. These stakeholders will act as researcher-advocates and contribute to policy uptake via "fit-for-purpose" evidence of the pilot outcomes. Value-added impact of such interventions on the local economy & livelihoods will result from investments to Treasury & donors. Local/sub-national governments in the region now have devolved responsibilities for climate services and will also benefit from improved evidence of benefits.
3) INTERNATIONAL & BILATERAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS
These will benefit from robust quantitative & qualitative evidence to inform programmes of support to national innovation support systems (including advisory services, SME promotion, regulatory frameworks). USAID & EU, World Bank, UNEP, UNDP, WFP, WHO and others are active in this region and will be invited to participate in the high-level Learning Platforms.
4) NGOs
Close collaboration with international (Practical Action) & local NGOs (Rural Environment & Development Organisation, OSIENALA, Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern & Southern Africa) will inform their livelihood and WASH programs development and provide evidence of their own interventions and modes of working with pilot communities.
5) CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS (CSOs) & MEDIA
CSOs, national/sub-national farmer/fisher & urban organizations will benefit from evidence supporting lobbying for improved water services and climate-smart fisheries/agriculture management. Some CSOs already provide innovation support services (Uganda National Farmers Federation) and will be able to use the project findings to enhance such service provision. Engagement with CSOs & the media (local FM stations) will raise awareness of the research process and outcomes (planning information & decision tools). Wider coverage of the research & analytical methods will help to showcase benefits & attract future investment, stimulating collaborations beyond HyCRISTAL
6) RESEARCH INSTITUTES & MET SERVICES
HyCRISTAL will work with weather forecasters, hydrologists, hydrogeologists & users of medium-long-range forecasts, through project partnerships. These partners benefit via access to improved climate risk information and by strengthening utility of their climate services at regional to community levels.
7) PRIVATE SECTOR
African companies (Kisumu Water and Sewerage Company) will benefit from exposure to the knowledge products helping to inform their future business plans. Communities across the region will indirectly benefit from improved innovation support policies and interventions that are evidence based and tuned to the ways in which they seek support in their innovation & livelihood decision-making resulting in increased household capacity to invest in new livelihood options as current ones become unsusustainable
People |
ORCID iD |
| Kamazima Lwiza (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Bornemann F
(2019)
Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate
in Climatic Change
| Description | In order to examine the relationship between climatic indices, i.e., Multi-variate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Ocean Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean Dipole Moment Index (DMI), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and satellite data of different variables over Lake Victoria (aerosols, lake surface temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, precipitation, and chlorophyll a) we used percentage bend correlation because it protects against marginal distribution outliers biasing the data. We found statistically significant correlation between aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and MEI mostly in the western and northern parts of the lake. The correlation is negative in the east but not significant. NAO has statistically significant positive correlation with AOT the western part of the lake, except south of Sesse Islands in Ugandan waters, with a highest correlation found at lag of 8 months. Also, DMI has statistically significant positive correlation with AOT in the eastern part of the lake. The rest of the lake also generally has a positive correlation with a highest correlation found at lag of 9 months. There is significant positive correlation between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and MEI for most of the lake. PAR lags by 8 months. MJO has a negative significant correlation in the mid-section of the lake. The correlation is weak in the north and south. The lag of 3 moths give the maximum correlation. While DMI has statistically significant negative correlation with PAR in the southern and eastern parts of the lake. NAO has small portions in the south of the lake that have statistically significant negative correlation with PAR. There is significant positive correlation between Chlorophyll a and MEI in the east. There are several scattered small areas of negative correlation in Ugandan waters. Chlorophyll a lags behind ENSO by 9 months. MJO has no significant correlation with Chlorophyll a, except for a small area (radius ~15 km) in the east near Musoma town in Tanzanian waters, with a lag of one month. DMI seems to have little influence on Chlorophyll a. In the west there are significant narrow areas close to shore with significant positive correlation. In the east (Speke Gulf and along Ugandan-Kenyan boarder, there are scattered area with significant negative correlation. NAO has weak but negative correlation for most of the lake. Only one small area in the northeast has a significant negative correlation, with a lag of 5 months. Significant positive correlation exists between rainfall and MEI north of 0o 30' S line, and there is significant negative correlation in the south and off the Kagera River mouth. MJO has no significant correlation with rainfall, but it is generally positive. DMI has statistically significant positive correlation with rainfall most of the lake, except the narrow eastern corridor where correlation is weak and negative. NAO has weak but positive correlation for most of the lake. Two small portions in the west around Sesse Islands in Uganda and an area off the Bukoba town in Tanzania have significant positive correlation. There is a significant positive correlation between Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) and MEI for most of the lake. PAR lags ENSO by 8 months. MJO has a negative significant correlation in the mid-section of the lake. The correlation is weak in the north and south. DMI has statistically significant negative correlation with PAR in the southern and eastern parts of the lake. PAR has small portions in the south of the lake that have statistically significant negative correlation with NAO. Maximum correlation is found when NAO is lagged by 4 months. Least Absolute Shrinkage Selector Operator (LASSO) regression, a method good at reducing confounding factors, indicates that PDO and DMI are the major predictors of the surface temperature of Lake Victoria. |
| Exploitation Route | The data we have collected can be used to verify results of high resolution regional general climate models for the Lake Victoria basin. We compared observations with CMIP5 model historical output for rain and surface temperature and the results did not quite agree, mainly because the CMIP5 model resolution is too coarse and does not resolve Lake Victoria. We are in the process of finishing the examination of CP4A and R25A output. The models are capable of producing accurate results for the historical data, The cloud permitting model results seem to agree with observations in general. We are using their predictions for future scenarios to drive the lake hydrodynamical model which will feed the ECOPATH model. Also, there are several people interested in the data, for example, Dr. Wim Thiery from Vrije Universiteit Brussel is also interested in using our data . |
| Sectors | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Transport |
| Description | Present water level fluctuations and surface temperature in Lake Victoria and their projected changes are being incorporated in the plans of the Vine Trust medical boat operations. The boat provides service to the southwest qudrant of the lake. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2019 |
| Impact Types | Societal |
| Description | Advising the prime minister of Uganda about the El Niño of 2015 |
| Geographic Reach | Africa |
| Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
| Impact | At the meeting the Prime Minister of Uganda, Dr. Rutahakana Rugunda was cautioned about the impending impacts of El Niño. The office of the Prime Minister took the advice to heart by directing cleaning up of the gutter Kampala city to avert flooding. The Department of Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Management is coordinating the raising of the level of preparedness and response of Government Institutions. The Disaster Department working with UPDF leadership, trained and equippied Ugandan soldiers on how to help people when the El Niño rains get destructive in the districts at high risk and Kampala City. A National Multi-Sectoral El Niño taskforce has been established. |
| Description | Integrated risk mapping and targeted snail control to support schistosomiasis elimination in Brazil and Cote d'Ivoire under future climate change |
| Amount | £864,000 (GBP) |
| Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Department | Belmont Forum |
| Sector | Public |
| Country | Global |
| Start | 03/2020 |
| End | 02/2023 |
| Title | Installation of a satellite modem for telemetering meteorological and water temperature on a medical boat (Jubilee Hope) on Lake Victoria |
| Description | In July 2018 installed a satellite modem on the M/V Jubile the boat. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2019 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | Not yet. |
| Title | Installation of lake observation sensors the floating hospital ship Jubilee Hope |
| Description | I installed sensors for wind, barometric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, short wave solar radiation, precipitation and lake surface water temperature on a hospital boat (Jubilee Hope - owned by) operating on Lake Victoria. I will maintain the data pre-processing and its distribution to all partners (except Vine Trust Organisation which is an international development charity). I will also conduct regular maintenance every six months. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | The sensors were installed in December 2016 and teh ship did not start sailing until February 7, 2017. The data has started coming in but not consistenly because of communication problems. These will be their first continuous monitoring data in lake Victoria. |
| Title | Installation of meteorological and water temperature monitoring equipment on a passenger boat between Mwanza and Bukoba on Lake Victoria |
| Description | The government-owned passenger ferry, MV Serengeti, on which I installed the meteorological monitoring equipment in January of 2016, was removed from service after six months due to technical problems. In August 2017 I installed another set sensors for wind, barometric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, short wave solar radiation, precipitation and lake surface water temperature on a privately owned boat (MV Blue Bird - owned by Earthwise) operating on Lake Victoria. The boat started operating between Mwanza and Bukoba in January 2018. Data pre-processing and its distribution to all partners will be conducted by the PI. We will also conduct regular maintenance every six months. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | This is the second boat (not counting MV Serengeti which is not back in service yet) to have this kind of equipment. It has an advantage over the Hospital boat because the data collection is more regular, and the boat takes only four hours to cross the lake. Data will be used to improve the regional models that are being developed in HyCRISTAL project. The data will be used to verify present day output products of CP4A and R25A regional models. It will also provide groundtruth data for the Satellite observations. |
| Title | Installation of meteorological sensors and water quality sensors on Bukoba-Mwanza Ferry |
| Description | The Co-I and a technician traveled to Mwanza in Tanzania between 13 and 26 January 2016. The aim was to install meteorological sensors (Airmar to measure true and relative wind speed and direction, GPS Position, pitch and roll, barometric pressure, air temperature, and wind chill temperature), rain sensor, sensor for photosynthetically active radiometer; water temperature sensor, chlorophyll and phycocyanin sensors, and a nitrate sensor on a passenger ferry that travels between Mwanza and Bukoba town in the southwestern area of Lake Victoria. |
| Type Of Material | Improvements to research infrastructure |
| Year Produced | 2016 |
| Provided To Others? | Yes |
| Impact | It has just started and the data will be shared by all the groups. This is the first of its kind on Lake Victoria which will help establish continuous monitoring of weather data. The data will be used to improve the regional models that are being developed in HyCRISTAL project. Before the installation satellite data were the only means of getting continuous physical data (e.g., water temperature, chlorophyll) apart from intermittent research survey data conducted by fisheries research institutes of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Now we have some groundtruth to calibrate satellite data with. |
| Title | Boat observations from Lake Victoria |
| Description | The database includes semi-monthly data from transects across the southwestern quadrant of Lake Victoria. The data contain wind vector observations, air temperature, relative humidity, rain, solar radiation, and water temperature recorded at 6-min ineterval. |
| Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
| Year Produced | 2017 |
| Provided To Others? | No |
| Impact | This is the first time meteorological data and lake surface water temperature are being monitored on regularly on Lake Victoria. Researchers will have data over the lake which is very hard to come by. They will allow calibration and verification of satellite observations. The data will also help in model verification. |
| Description | Earthwise boat monitoring program |
| Organisation | British Geological Survey |
| Department | Earthwise |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | We will be installing a suite of meteorological sensors (wind, relative humidity, precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation) and water temperature sensor aboard one of the Earthwise boat (M?V Bluebird) in Lake Victoria in June 2016. The sensors will be provided by the British Met Office. Karen McCourt is in charge of the instrumentation program |
| Collaborator Contribution | They are allowing us to use one of their boats as a ship of opportunity. This will significantly increase the amount |
| Impact | none so far |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Fisheries and health work we are doing on Lake Victoria |
| Organisation | University of St Andrews |
| Department | School of Biology |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | I made the lake level, lake surface temperature, precipitation, and wind data available to the writing of the proposal. I am not a formal investigator. I am just a collaborator. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Prof. Andrew Brierley wrote the proposal on using fish as a biocontrol on schistosomiasis in Lake Victoria funded via GCRF for 2.5 years. |
| Impact | Workshop on biocontrol of schistosomiasis in Lake Victoria held in St. Andrews on April 9, 2017. |
| Start Year | 2019 |
| Description | LAKE VICTORIA FOOD, ENERGY AND WATER SYSTEMS (LakeVIEW) -balancing the food production and energy demands of a growing population with preservation of water resources, under climate change, |
| Organisation | University of St Andrews |
| Department | School of Biology |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | I am the lead scientist on this proposal to the US National Science Foundation. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Prof. Andrew Brierley's contribution is the acoustic measurements of fish in Lake Victoria to examine the biomass of commercially important species. |
| Impact | No output yet because the proposal is still pending. |
| Start Year | 2018 |
| Description | Stony Brook University and UK Met Office Lake Victoria observation partnership |
| Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | I installed sensors for wind, barometric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, short wave solar radiation, precipitation and lake surface water temperature on a hospital boat (Jubilee Hope - owned by) operating on Lake Victoria. I will maintain the data pre-processing and its distribution to all partners (except Vine Trust Organisation which is an international development charity). I will also conduct regular maintenance every six months. |
| Collaborator Contribution | UK met Office provided the funding for the purchase of the equipment and will continue to pay for the communications charges for telemetry. Vine Trust provided their hospital boat for free. The boat visits several remote Islands in Lake Victoria for about 4 day/island every month. |
| Impact | The lake observations data continuously is being collected. We are still trying to sort out communications problems. Once sorted teh data will be published on UK Met website. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Stony Brook University and UK Met Office Lake Victoria observation partnership |
| Organisation | Tanzania Meteorology Agency |
| Country | Tanzania, United Republic of |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | I installed sensors for wind, barometric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, short wave solar radiation, precipitation and lake surface water temperature on a hospital boat (Jubilee Hope - owned by) operating on Lake Victoria. I will maintain the data pre-processing and its distribution to all partners (except Vine Trust Organisation which is an international development charity). I will also conduct regular maintenance every six months. |
| Collaborator Contribution | UK met Office provided the funding for the purchase of the equipment and will continue to pay for the communications charges for telemetry. Vine Trust provided their hospital boat for free. The boat visits several remote Islands in Lake Victoria for about 4 day/island every month. |
| Impact | The lake observations data continuously is being collected. We are still trying to sort out communications problems. Once sorted teh data will be published on UK Met website. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Stony Brook University and UK Met Office Lake Victoria observation partnership |
| Organisation | Vine Trust |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | I installed sensors for wind, barometric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, short wave solar radiation, precipitation and lake surface water temperature on a hospital boat (Jubilee Hope - owned by) operating on Lake Victoria. I will maintain the data pre-processing and its distribution to all partners (except Vine Trust Organisation which is an international development charity). I will also conduct regular maintenance every six months. |
| Collaborator Contribution | UK met Office provided the funding for the purchase of the equipment and will continue to pay for the communications charges for telemetry. Vine Trust provided their hospital boat for free. The boat visits several remote Islands in Lake Victoria for about 4 day/island every month. |
| Impact | The lake observations data continuously is being collected. We are still trying to sort out communications problems. Once sorted teh data will be published on UK Met website. |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Annual general meeting at Kampala September 2015 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | About 60 people attended the conference. The discussion topics showed that the partner members in the study were willing to apply the research to benefit the East African people in the Lake Victoria Basin. It was agreed that agreed that maintaining communication among project groups and beyond the project will facilitate success. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
| URL | http://futureclimateafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/HYCRISTAL-Workshop-report_summary.pdf |
| Description | Implications of discrepancies of climate models to the dynamics of Lake Victoria |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
| Results and Impact | This was the annual general meeting held in Kampala in April 2018. The goals were to review where were at and strategize how to complete the project, report to decision makers and stakeholders (represented by NGOs) the preliminary results and seek their input. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Implications of water level changes of Lake Victoria |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | The workshop brought together experts on biocontrol of schistosomiasis from around the world. The goal was to examine various ways that have been used previously and which are currently used in other parts of the world to determine which one would fit Lake Victoria best. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Invited talk to Hofstra University |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | 33 environmental managers and researchers from around the region attended the talk. They were interested in how climate science was integrated with social aspects like livelihoods impacts. They wanted to know how the research was conducted. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
| Description | Meeting with Regional Commissionerof Mwanza Region in Tanzania |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Regional |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | When we started inquiring about installing the observation equipment on the private and government owned ships in Mwanza, some owners were worried not knowing if we had the permission and the blessing of the regional government. Therefore, the goal was to make the Mwanza Region leadership aware of the HyCRISTAL project, its objectives and how it will help in improving the accuracy of climate prediction in the region. We also wanted to convince them about the need to install sensors on several different ships operating on Lake Victoria in order to verify and calibrate the models. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |