D-Risk: an innovative decision-support tool for improving drought risk and abstraction management for UK irrigated agribusinesses

Irrigation is an essential component of crop production to meet supermarket and retailer demands for premium quality produce when rainfall is insufficient. Under drought conditions, the ability to provide sufficient irrigation can be constrained by abstraction licence conditions, with consequent important impacts on crop yield and quality and farm revenue. As part of the abstraction reform process, the Environment Agency (EA) are proposing to change the conditions of agricultural time-limited licences (TLLs) as they are due for renewal. These conditions would reduce the amount of water licenced for abstraction in order to meet objectives set by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This will represent a major business water risk to the soft fruit, field vegetable, salads and potato growing businesses in regions that are dependent on direct abstraction. It is vital for irrigated farmers to understand the implications of these changes to their abstraction licences, to their risk management and to the competitiveness and economic viability of their businesses. Recent work at Cranfield has shown that the total net benefits of irrigation in England in a 'design' dry year are around £219 million, demonstrating the substantial business risk that a lack of irrigation water can pose to farmers.

Although the EA originally planned to take immediate action, it has agreed to delay its implementation until 2018. This provides a valuable opportunity to support businesses in understanding the repercussions of the proposed reforms for the future drought risk management of their farming enterprises. However, there are currently no tools available to support irrigated farming businesses to do this.

Given the economic importance of irrigation to many farm businesses, we propose to use insights gained from recent and ongoing research within the NERC-funded HistoricDroughts (NE/L010070/1) and MaRIUS (NE/L010186/1) projects to help farm businesses understand the consequences of the proposed licence changes to their business in the context of drought risk management. In particular, using a combination of farm data, pre-existing modelling tools that relate crop type to irrigation need and historical re-constructed weather data covering the whole of the twentieth century from these projects, we will work with our key Project Partners to develop an innovative web-based tool (provisionally named D-Risk) that will allow irrigated agribusinesses to evaluate:
1) How the proposed abstraction licence reforms will affect their licensed volumes upon renewal, post 2018;
2) How the reduced licensed volumes will impact on current farm business plans through changing attitudes to drought risk, based on the balance between licensed volumes and irrigation need under historical weather;
3) How best to adapt their farm business plans to achieve an acceptable future level of drought and water resource risk;

The project will involve a small but highly active consortium of project partners in the Cam and Ely Ouse catchment in Anglian region where the licence renewal changes will first be implemented by the EA. Their engagement is explicit throughout each of the work packages and their input is integral to the project. Case Studies describing how the D-Risk web-based tool was used to revise our Project Partners' business planning to improve their drought risk management will be used, in conjunction with workshops co-organised with the National Farmers Union and UK Irrigation Association, to promote the use of the D-Risk tool to the >3500 irrigated agribusinesses with TLLs outside Anglian region that will subsequently be affected once the roll out of the EA procedure commences, thereby contributing to the economic competiveness of the UK food supply chain.

Activities
Engagement with our end-users and stakeholders is explicit throughout each of the work packages and their input is integral to the knowledge exchange within project development (WP1 and 2) and output (WP3 and 4), and will be facilitated through farm visits, scheduled partner meetings and teleconferences with our project partners. In particular:
1. We will work with our project partners to defined the detailed user needs for the D-Risk tool to ensure that the D-Risk tool is compatible with their business decision rules/criteria;
2. Our Project Partners will be involved in the iterative testing of the D-Risk tool. They will provide feedback regarding its user-friendliness, the graphical user interface and the ability for end users to navigate their way around the software;
3. Selected key informants in the industry will also be used to provide independent critique and feedback on the utility of the D-Risk tool.
4. We will work with our agribusiness Project Partners to apply the D-Risk tool to their individual business' to evaluate the necessary changes to their farm business plans to achieve their acceptable level of drought risk
5. We will deliver a programme of innovation outreach and KE, working with two project partners (UKIA and NFU) who have extensive industry connections, to promote uptake and use of the D-Risk webtool beyond the case study project partners. This will include email alerts, website news, podcasts, farming press, regional training workshops, free access to the D-Risk tool (and Case Studies and user guide) and technical presentations

The main project outputs will include:
1. An innovative web-based tool (D-Risk) to support irrigated agribusinesses and farming enterprises to understand the implications of abstraction reform on their irrigation licences in the context of likely future changes in drought risk;
2. Business case studies describing the use of the D-Risk tool in modifying farm business plans for our agribusiness project partners to manage their water abstraction and drought risks;
3. An online information booklet and podcasts promoting the use of the D-Risk webtool, hosted on the UK Irrigation Association (UKIA) website; and a user guide
4. A programme of dissemination events, co-organised with the UKIA and National Farmers Union to promote awareness and uptake of the D-Risk tool, and;
5. Technical presentations on the use of the D-Risk tool at regional and national conferences and technical meetings to inform improved drought risk planning and promote the use of the D-Risk tool to agribusinesses.

The main outcomes for end-users will include:
1. An Innovative freely available product (D-Risk webtool) for improved on-farm decision-making that is adopted by the wider irrigated agribusiness community;
2. Direct embodiment of new knowledge on managing drought risks associated with abstraction reform into the farm business plans of our agribusiness Project Partners, reducing their agronomic and economic exposure to drought risks (Impact);
3. Direct embodiment of new knowledge on managing drought risks into non-Project Partner farm business plans reducing the economic exposure of UK irrigated agriculture to drought risks (Impact);
4. Increased awareness of the links and consequences of drought on future abstraction licensing management