Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action

Lead Research Organisation: University of Sussex
Department Name: Sch of Global Studies

Abstract

Drought and flood events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, with significant impacts on long term development, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. Existing early warning systems (EWS) whilst improving remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations. Too often agencies and communities are only able to respond after a disaster has occurred rather than in advance, for a number of complex reasons. This project will address two of the primary limitations of EWS that hinder effective action in the face of hazard risks by;
1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons.
2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information.
Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money.
Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.
Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness action
The FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.

Planned Impact

ForPAc is carefully designed to have direct and measurable impact during, and well beyond the timeframe and location of the project activities in Kenya. We will utilise a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA) framework and method to plan, monitor and evaluate the impact of our project. This will be rooted in, and flow from a coherent 'Theory of Change' established early in the project. Management structures include; 1). An impact sub-group led by co-I APHRC. 2) An advisory Panel (contingent on advice from SHEAR KE) providing strategic guidance, with representation from key regional organisations, civil society, donors and multi-laterals. ForPAc will generate impact because (i) we will improve existing EWS (ii) we include the key decision-making agencies and intermediaries to communities, building on partnerships already well established. The case study method of co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes will result in co-ownership of the process, direct applicability and development impact. We will strengthen the 'community of practice' in Kenya and beyond including 'champions' in relevant organisations, for continued legacy.
Benefits will accrue at 3 levels
(i) Local stakeholders. 1) 'delivery agencies' at Kenya county level e.g. government (agriculture, emergency services), and NGOs' operatives 2) communities themselves. Benefits: greater awareness of ForPAc innovations in early warning information and tools/approaches for preparedness planning. Method: enabling process of deep stakeholder engagement from the outset, starting with EWS mapping processes, and iterative process of EWS and portal development, within our continuous monitoring and evaluation.
(ii) National mandated agencies. The NDMA, KMD, Red Cross Kenya and NGOs within ALERT network. Operational practices will be directly influenced by the project's forecast-based action research e.g. improved methods of risk forecast production, early warning advice based on agreed decision "triggers" and improved standard operating procedures through new and improved tools. Through collaboration, iteration and co-production ForPAc will ensure a real sense of ownership of these innovations. Enhanced EWS capacity will strengthen national trust in the mandated agencies - encouraging uptake across government support in the future and will inform policy planning on DRR by government ministries. Outputs (products, portals training modules and decision tools) and lessons will be shared: Across IGAD nations through ICPAC the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum process; Across Africa through the wider networks of the team. In this way legacy impact is ensured.
(iii) 'Advocacy' level. Regional and international agencies that set agendas for DRR, such as ISDR, FAO, WMO, WFP, FEWSNet and national donors including DfID, utilising the extensive existing policy network of the project consortium. We will inform key policy makers and forums of best practice, cutting edge science, emerging challenges in the science and implementation of our innovations in EWS. Method: a programme of policy engagement including workshops and meetings with invited high-level agency representatives, interventions at forums, policy briefings.
Our UK/Kenya team has an excellent track record of delivering impact and policy engagement (see CVs and track records). Our Co-I's Pelling and Visman have experience in NERC Knowledge Exchange. ForPAc impact will draw on lessons from a wide array of related projects with Co-I involvement e.g. FCFA IMPALA and consortia; AdA consortium; ALERT; Urban-Ark; the Red Cross-Kenya Resilience Initiative; BRACED projects; WISER projects; International forecast initiatives of the WMO (SWFDP, S2S); EUROSIP and Copernicus seasonal predictions; Foresight 'Reducing Risks of Future Disasters'. These projects will also be cross-fertilised by ForPAc potentially multiplying our impact considerably.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description ForPAc research has established that Kenya and East Africa is a 'sweetspot' of climate predictability at seasonal lead times in the short rains season and sub-seasonal lead times in all seasons
This provides the potential for Forecast based Action to mitigate the effects of flood and drought events
ForPAC has worked with mandated agencies to demonstrate the potential of a new suite of prototype forecasts products and systematic approaches to making decisions based on forecasts
we are now working towards operationalising these products and approached in drought and flood early warming systems and other risk management practices by various agencies.
Exploitation Route we are now working towards operationalising these products and approached in drought and flood early warming systems and other risk management practices by various agencies.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment

URL http://www.forpac.org
 
Description ForPAc is developing: (i) improved probabilistic forecasts of flood and drought in Kenya that are directly relevant to Early Warning Systems (ii) Systematic approaches for integrating forecasts into existing Early Warning Systems and making defensible decisions based on these forecasts In 2019 and 2020 we have undertaken pilots in our case study EWS which demonstrate the potential to inform operational forecasting and risk management systems As a result of our research the following changes has occurred (1) Advances in the operational forecast systems of forecast producers (2) Advances in risk management procedures by agencies including the National Drought Management Authority and Kenya Red Cross Society (3) Increased capacity of forecasting agencies and risk management agencies. We are now focussing on capacity building with our partner forecasting and risk management agencies to transfer the capacity to produce these forecasts in the future.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Other
Impact Types Cultural,Societal

 
Description Changes to the Kenya Red Cross Multi Hazard Contingency Planning Process
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The KRCS Multi Hazard Contingency Planning is updated twice a year; February and September, which is just before the rain seasons. This has been largely tied to the release of forecasts. The hazards considered are floods, drought, epidemics, conflict and other non-cyclic hazards like road accidents. The MHCP is used for resource mobilization at County, regional and national level. - In the February 2019 meeting, Researchers from ICHA presented a status of the climate including the performance of OND 2018 season and the outlook of MAM. ForPAc's MAM and OND skill at different lead times plus extracts of Kilavi et. al paper on the low predictability of MAM season were used. This was to emphasis the limited information given by the MAM seasonal forecast and the needto use sub seasonal forecast. The key message during the process was that the plans shouldn't be rigid, they should be flexible enough to be updated when climate information is updated. ForPAc researchers are now providing sub seasonal forecasts to facilitate updating of the MHCP.-In the September 2019 meeting, there were discussions to shift the timing so that it's able to inform the institution's plans and budget process that starts in June/July.However, the main concern is if there will be a forecast available at this time to support planning. This is now a proposedentry point for ForPAc with our early OND forecast product.
 
Description Enhancement of forecasting procedures at ICPAC
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Forecasting procedures at ICPAC enhanced 1. ForPAc / W2SIP staff sitting on 'Technical Advisory Committee', recent skill evaluation work from ForPAc staff presented to the committee led them to suggest the use of all models to form ensemble forecasting system based on their weights(according to skill strengths), with the potential for significant changes to the predominant models used at ICPAC and other regional climate centres (see partnerships). 2. ICPAC now use the Met office Global Hazard map to inform severe weather advisories, to good effect in September 2018 (see databases & platforms) Results in improved forecasts form ICPAC
 
Description Enhancement of forecasting procedures at KMD
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Improved forecasting procedures at KMD 1. KMD now use the Met office Global Hazard map to inform severe weather advisories, to good effect in September 2018, when they used the GHM to inform a KMD advisory forecast issued on 24th September 2018 moderate probability of heavy rain and flooding in the Mombasa and coastal region of Kenya. 2. Kenya Met Department staff have changed the form in which climate forecasts are prepared by acknowledging uncertainty in climate forecasts, following a training module developed at Sussex and skill assessment of KMD forecasts by ForPAc project
 
Description Improved forecast information & informing risk management practices - Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF)
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) 51st conference - ICPAC & ForPAC scientists provided pre-seasonal forecast training and operational climate prediction support to the climate forecasters from the 10-ICPAC member countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Djibouti), during the capacity building training workshop held from 4 to 9 February 2019 at ICPAC in Nairobi. The workshop did all the climate modelling work leading to the consensus forecasts for GHACOF51 for the GHA/ East Africa region for the season March to May 2019. Also: Dr Mutemi also made presentation on ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction. ForPAc is included in the acknowledges of GHACOF 51 because of this support & engagement. http://icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf
URL http://icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf
 
Description Improved understanding of probabilistic forecasts and risk management practices among stakeholders involved in Nairobi flood risk management
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a 2nd Stakeholder meeting in Nairobi in June 2018 followed by a tailored Climate training workshop in Nairobi in February 2019. This has led to close collaboration with a number of stakeholders and initiatives: Nairobi City County Govt DRM planning: KMD is now advising or on some steering meeting Nairobi County disaster management and coordination office - The draft county disaster management plan has been shared with the project with a view to contribute to its development and review. MK giving improved information to the NCC Transport and infrastructure dept and shared flood databases we have. There is also now an improved understanding of probabilistic forecasts and risk management practices among stakeholders involved in Nairobi flood work. 80% of participants in our recent Nairobi county climate training event said they now had a strengthened understanding of forecasts, and 83% of participants felt better able to identify preparedness activities. We have also raised awareness and sensitization around drivers of flood risk in the Nairobi area among our stakeholders and more broadly, for example, Mary Kilavi, ForPAc Researcher at KMD contributed to a widely read article in the The Ecologist on 'Nairobi's recipe for floods'.
URL https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/26/nairobis-recipe-floods
 
Description Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices - Drought Early Warning System
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country including a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (July) and a Climate Training workshop (August). These workshops led to improved awareness and links with Kitui county drought management processes and also at nationally mandated agencies. Led to: February 2019 county commissioner meeting and county steering group meeting, where ForPAc gave a presentation. January 2019 national level engagement with the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) CEO Mr James Oduor on 31st January, 2019. Mr Oduor acknowledge that the proposed products will be useful in drought risk management. We have also contributed to, and presented at, a meeting of the Ending Drought Emergencies on 20th February 2019 (the Kenyan national drought policy framework) and at the Kenya Food Security Steering Group meeting in Nakuru, Kenya on 24th February - 1st March (national oversight of drought early warning system).
 
Description Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices - Kenya Red Cross Society
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices. For example, ForPAc Researchers from ICHA presented a status of the climate including the performance of OND 2018 season and the outlook of MAM. ForPAc's MAM and OND skill at different lead times plus extracts of Kilavi et. al paper on the low predictability of MAM season were also used. This explained the limited information availed by the MAM seasonal forecast and the need to use sub seasonal forecasts in addition. The key message recieved by KRCS policy makers was that plans should be flexible enough to be updated when climate information is updated. Short policy brief published for KRCS / ICHA audience further emphasises the importance of using climate information: Red Cross ICHA Policy Brief on 'Forecast Based Preparedness Action'':
URL http://icha.net/media/pdf/634_FORECAST%20BASED%20PREPAREDNESS%20PULL%20OUT.pdf
 
Description Optimized objective forecasting method with ICPAC -Optimized objective forecasting method.
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact ForPAC scientist provided pre-seasonal forecast training and operational climate prediction support to the climate forecasting representatives from the 10-ICPAC member countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Djibouti). In 2017 the World Meterological Organisation decided that the climate model methodology had developed sufficiently to replace the semi-subjective method, ICPAC was ready. In 2019 a Steering Group was set up to achieve this, Dr Zewdu Segele, head of ICPAC's Climate Modelling Group said:"We had been developing facilities to make use of the climate modelling for some years and with additional support from the UK government'sWISER-W2SIP,SHEAR-ForPAcandGCRF African SWIFTprojects -as well as a new high power computing cluster funded by the WISER programme -we were able to be one of the first RCCs to adopt the objective approach, based primarily on climate models, and feed the information to our member states National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). This is a transformational change! It replaces 20 years of the semi-subjective approach and heralds a new era in seasonal forecast services. The objective approach is based more deeply in the underlying climate science and is much better suited to development of customized services for our sectoral areas."
URL https://medium.com/@icpac/improved-seasonal-forecast-for-eastern-africa-57872645f449
 
Description Applying Astronomy Data Analysis to enhance disaster forecasting
Amount £100,462 (GBP)
Funding ID ST/R004811/1 
Organisation Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2018 
End 03/2019
 
Description DRiSL: The Drought Risk finance Science Laboratory
Amount £282,408 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/R014272/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2018 
End 06/2019
 
Description Exploiting environmental data for food security in Africa: a new rainfall dataset for monitoring and early action
Amount £160,351 (GBP)
Organisation University of Reading 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2019 
End 07/2021
 
Description HiPAc
Amount £145,437 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2020 
End 04/2020
 
Description INtegrated FORecasting for Mitigation of risk
Amount £152,782 (GBP)
Organisation UK Department for International Development 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2020 
End 12/2020
 
Description NERC SHEAR DTC
Amount £1,000,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2018 
End 12/2021
 
Description Probabilistic Forecasting of Food Security in Africa
Amount £66,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Sussex 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2018 
End 06/2020
 
Description Sussex Social Science Impact Fund
Amount £20,080 (GBP)
Organisation University of Sussex 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2018 
End 03/2019
 
Description Sussex Sustainability Research Programme - Prediction of food security crises and effective responses
Amount £100,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Sussex 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2017 
End 06/2019
 
Title Database at high resolution of flood inundation for Nairobi from the 3Di model 
Description Database at high resolution of flood inundation for Nairobi from the 3Di model 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Shared with Nairobi City County Government Disaster Risk Management team 
 
Title Database on drought risk, expressed in event return periods, over Kenya derived from observations and large ensemble climate models. 
Description Database on drought risk, expressed in event return periods, over Kenya derived from observations and large ensemble climate models. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact none 
 
Title Decision-relevant drought indices: Country and admin level-1 Soil Moisture and drought indices with associated Return Periods 1 for three target countries: 
Description Multiple decision-relevant drought indices: Country and admin level-1 Soil Moisture and drought indices from multiple sources of data with associated Return Periods 1 for three target countries: Zimbabwe, Pakistan and Madagascar 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact support DRiSL project 
 
Title Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics 
Description Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to ICPAC 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to ICPAC 
 
Title Digitised archive of KMD forecasts and generated associated skill statistics 
Description Digitised archive of KMD weather-subseasonal-seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from KMD and GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to KMD, and users 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Digitised archive of KMD weather-subseasonal-seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from KMD and GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to KMD, and users 
 
Title Forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal rainfall forecasts from models in Copernicus archive with associated skill statistics over Greater Horn of Africa 
Description Forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal rainfall forecasts from models in Copernicus archive with associated skill statistics over Greater Horn of Africa 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Informed Red Cross Multi Hazard contingency planning procedures 
 
Title GHACOF and KMD data digitisiations 
Description Digitisation of past GHACOF consensus forecasts and past KMD national seasonal forecasts 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact n/a 
 
Title Gridded data from GCM sensitivity experiments 
Description Gridded data from GCM sensitivity experiments on East Africa rainfall representation in subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Forthcoming 
 
Title Gridded moisture back-track data 
Description Kenya-targeted gridded moisture back-track data sourced from Africa and Indian Ocean 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact N/A 
 
Title Key Informant Interviews and Scorecards 
Description Key Informant Interviews and Scorecards aimed at understanding existing flood/ drought early warning systems (EWS) in terms of decision - making processes, actors, contexts and capacities 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Project working paper - a summary of existing early warning systemsin Kenya and regional initiatives in the Greater Horn of Africa 
 
Title Long-lead seasonal forecast of decision-relevant metrics, with skill information 
Description Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite of forecasts of metrics used in drought EWS, with longer lead time better aligned with hazard risk management decision-making timeframes, to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019 engagements with Kitui county drought contingency planning meetings. The longer lead of the forecast was used to trial potential early actions, as the timescale was novel for stakeholders, as were the forecast metrics, which allowed the forecast to sit within existing decision making systems. We are now working on capacity building for KMD conducted with the desire to move toward operationalisation by KMD in the future. 
 
Title Met Office Global Hazard map for East Africa 
Description Technical work on migrating the external Global Hazard Map to a different cloud server in preparation for an externally available East Africa Hazard Map underway. 
Type Of Material Data handling & control 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The Global Hazard Map is now accessed by both KMD & ICPAC. The GHM was used to inform a KMD advisory forecast issued on 24th September 2018 moderate probability of heavy rain and flooding in the Mombasa and coastal region of Kenya. 
 
Title Monthly rainfall forecast with skill assessment. Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite. 
Description New forecasts with improved reliability to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019. Training and capacity building for KMD conducted 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This forecast product was used to get stakeholders to trial what decisions could be made under a more forecast-based system. Because it is allows the update of information over 'sub-seasonal' timescales - which allows stakeholders to make 'ready, set, go' decisions, and as with the previous model recorded, also includes skill-information these forecasts build a long term perspective & trust. We hope to move this product to being operationalised by the Kenya met department. 
 
Title Optimised Multi model seasonal climateforecast of decision-relevant metrics, with skill information. Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite 
Description New forecasts of metrics used in drought EWS with improved reliability to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019. Training and capacity building for KMD conducted 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Prototype forecast piloted though our workshop engagements in Kitui and Nairobi asking stakeholders what decisions they could make using this new information. Releasing skill information of the forecasts was also novel and built new understanding and trust in policymakers about how they could use this information. We are now working with forecasting agencies to see if they can ope rationalise these forecasts and release them in 2020 onward. 
 
Title Prototype climate forecast product Forecasts of agriculturally relevant metrics: 
Description The Tamsat-Alert system has been calibrated to produce weekly forecasts of end of season Water Requirement Satisfaction Index over kenya on a 25km grid 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact To be piloted in kenya drought EWS 
 
Title Prototype climate forecast product:' Optimised' seasonal forecast GPC multi-model product (with skill statistics) Downscaled for Kitui county 
Description Prototype climate forecast product:' Optimised' seasonal forecast GPC multi-model product (with skill statistics) Downscaled for Kitui county 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Pilot in Kenya Drought EWS 
 
Title Prototype forecast products 
Description Prototype climate forecast product: Extended range seasonal forecasts for Oct-Dec season rainfall over Greater Horn of Africa (with skill statistics) 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Pilot in Kenya Drought EWS 
 
Title TAMSAT-ALERT decision support framework 
Description TAMSAT-ALERT (The TAMSAT Agricultural Early Warning System) outputs community level agricultural risk assessments based on multiple streams of data, including Earth Observation, Reanalysis and meteorological forecasts. In essence, the system addresses the question: 'Given the state of the land surface, the stage in the growing season and the meteorological forecast, what is the chance of some adverse agricultural outcome?'. So far the system has been implemented for seasonal drought risk assessment, planting date decision support and probabilistic crop yield forecasting. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact - Early warning of agricultural drought in northern Ghana during 2017 (system also run in 2018) - Plans for field trials of the planting date decision support 
 
Title Test ensemble runs of operational KMD and HYDROMAD flood forecasting system for 2018 case studies 
Description Test ensemble runs of operational KMD and Hydromad flood forecasting system for 2018 case studies 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Inform flood forecast system development and design 
 
Title Verification of MOGREPS-G rainfall forecasts over Nzoia Basin 
Description Verification of MOGREPS-G rainfall forecasts over Nzoia Basin 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Informed potential for improved heavy rain advisories and flood forecasting in kenya 
 
Title Verification of multi-day rainfall over case study regions in Kenya (Nzoia & Nairobi) gridpoint rainfall forecasts from ECMWF 18km ENS, up to a lead time of 15 days. 
Description Verification of multi-day rainfall over case study regions in Kenya (Nzoia & Nairobi) gridpoint rainfall forecasts from ECMWF 18km ENS, up to a lead time of 15 days. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Informed potential for improved heavy rain advisories and flood forecasting in kenya 
 
Title Water Resources Satisfaction Index data generated for decision-relevant crop types in Zimbabwe using calibrated and validated Tamsat-Alert system 
Description Water Resources Satisfaction Index data generated for decision-relevant crop types in Zimbabwe using calibrated and validated Tamsat-Alert system 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2019 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Supports DRiSL project 
 
Title database of flood events in nairobi 
Description Database of historical flood events (>400 unique historical flood events, 1978 to present) in Nairobi based on grey literature (e.g., newspaper reports, government reports, twitter, personal blogs, etc.). For each flood there can be multiple sources of information which has been indicated. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Shared with Nairobi City County Government Disaster Risk Management team 
 
Description Collaboration with ALERT - research assistant project 
Organisation Help Age International
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Research and analysis to explore the demand for and specific requirements of weather and climate information in two case study countries of the Help Age ALERT project and also complement research on the NERC-DfID SHEAR consortium project 'ForPAc'.
Collaborator Contribution Help Age / ALERT providec in country support in the Phillipines and access to NGO partners for interviews and focus groups.
Impact Forthcoming: Policy Brief on Climate hazard forecasting and monitoring for improved Disaster Risk Reduction in Kenya: Forthcoming: Policy Brief on Climate hazard forecasting and monitoring for improved Disaster Risk Reduction in the Philippines: and Report entitled "Using Climate and Weather Information for Humanitarian Preparedness - a case study of forecast use in Kenya and the Philippines and its linkage to the online preparedness platform ALERT.
Start Year 2017
 
Description Collaboration with Global Centre for Disaster Protection 
Organisation Centre For Disaster Protection
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution DRiSL project researcher Clare Harris at Start network seconded to GCDP
Collaborator Contribution to be decided
Impact none yet
Start Year 2018
 
Description Collaboration with WISER project Daraja 
Organisation Resurgence
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution WISER project Daraja (Developing Anticipatory Risk Awareness & Joint Action) Project Advised on project development (see further funding). Joined inception and co-design workshops and planning meetings held on 7th and 8th February 2019 - contributions include advising on forecast products for Nairobi county, drawing from initial ForPAc work reviewing and skill assessing these, facilitating input from the key stakeholder groups into the design of city-wide and settlement level pilot weather and climate information services.
Collaborator Contribution WISER project Daraja (Developing Anticipatory Risk Awareness & Joint Action) Project Advised on project development (see further funding). Joined inception and co-design workshops and planning meetings held on 7th and 8th February 2019 - contributions include advising on forecast products for Nairobi county, drawing from initial ForPAc work reviewing and skill assessing these, facilitating input from the key stakeholder groups into the design of city-wide and settlement level pilot weather and climate information services.
Impact ForPac facilitated design and execution of Daraja pilot forecast dissemination for flood risk in informal settlements in nairobi . Ensured appropriate forecast products
Start Year 2018
 
Description Decision support for international organisations 
Organisation International Committee of the Red Cross
Department Kenya Red Cross Society
Country Kenya 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa.
Collaborator Contribution Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought.
Impact Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross
Start Year 2018
 
Description Decision support for international organisations 
Organisation World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal)
Country Italy 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa.
Collaborator Contribution Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought.
Impact Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross
Start Year 2018
 
Description GCRF African SWIFT project - update on collaboration 
Organisation National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution This partnership led to a joint capacity building workshop in the UK - named S2S Sub Seasonal prediction Training Workshop, which was held in Reading in February 2020. Two members of staff from the ForPAc team working at the Kenya Met Depratment were able to attend the training learning new coding languages and techniques. This helps to further build capacity at KMD to transfer the production of new forecast products developed through ForPAc.
Collaborator Contribution The Africa SWIFT team coordinated and led the workshop with input from ForPAc team on inception, and ForPAc PI attended one day of training. ForPAc funded the attendance of our 2 members of staff.
Impact S2S Sub Seasonal prediction Training Workshop
Start Year 2018
 
Description GCRF African SWIFT project testbed design 
Organisation University of Leeds
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution ForPAc (KMD, met office, ICPAC) are working with the GCRF project SWIFT (https://africanswift.org/) to provide a test application of basin scale flood forecasting in Kenya, for the new high resolution convection permitting ensemble weather forecasts from SWIFT using the the UK Met Office model. ForPAc partner KMD are directly involved in SWIFT and ForPAc staff are helping ensure project alignment.
Collaborator Contribution As above.
Impact Forthcoming.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Red Cross - DREF & IARP (Innovative Approaches in Risk Preparedness) Project 
Organisation International Committee of the Red Cross
Country Switzerland 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Support Kenya Red Cross to apply for anticipatory funding from IFRC DREF FbF window by providing products to be used in the group's meetings and will contribute to IARP's trigger working group to set trigger thresholds for action on forecasts. Contribute forecast evaluations and in trigger methodology workshops.
Collaborator Contribution Red Cross DREF - ForPAc has contributed to the Red Cross trigger methodology guide & is included in the acknowledgements accordingly - http://fbf.drk.de/fileadmin/user_upload/FbF_Manual_-_A_guide_to_trigger_methodology.pdf
Impact Forthcoming.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Urban ARK collaboration 
Organisation King's College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We have linked with KCL's Urban ARK research project, which is a separate DfID / ESRC project led by the ForPAc KCL PI. Through Urban Ark we have linked with their Nairobi network to hold a stakeholder engagement day for urban flooding in Nairobi.
Collaborator Contribution ForPAc research partners followed up with proposed stakeholders to build a network around the issue of urban flooding, and will continue to engage with these partners to help inform our research.
Impact Interdisciplinary collaboration between urban resilience expertise at KCL, local forecasters and data in partnership with the Kenyan Meteorological Department (KMD) through ForPAc and local data users such as local council representatives and the water board. Outcomes include a stakeholder engagement workshop to be followed with further research outputs and engagement. In 2018 / 2019 ForPAc coordination ensured Urban ARK are engaged with newly formed Nairobi County Disaster Management and Coordination Officer & planning process.
Start Year 2017
 
Description WISER W2SIP Project 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution ForPAc postdoc work on model evaluation for optimal model forecasting. ForPAc PIO invited to serve as external member of W2SIP TAC.
Collaborator Contribution W2SIP staff supported with model evaluation & presentation at Technical Advisory committee.
Impact Led to discussion at a W2SIP supported 'Technical Advisory Committee'. The W2SIP-Technical Advisory Comittee meeting suggested the use all models to form ensemble forecasting system based on their weights(according to skill strengths) based on recent ForPAc-led work on skill evaluation, with the potential for significant changes to the predominant models used at ICPAC and other regional climate centres.
Start Year 2018
 
Description WISER project 'Scoping and Design for Taking Forecast-Based Early Action to Scale' 
Organisation Meteorological Office UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Intellectual / authorship contributions.
Collaborator Contribution Red Cross Climate Centre - also intellectual / authorship contributions.
Impact This collaboration has resulted in one report: Wilkinson, E., Weingärtner, L., Choularton, R., Bailey, M., Todd, M., Kniveton, D., & Cabot Venton, C. (2018). Forecasting hazards, averting disasters: Implementing forecast-based early action at scale. Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
Start Year 2018
 
Description WMO WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal-Seasonal prediction (S2) pilot 
Organisation World Meteorological Organization
Department WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal-Seasonal prediction
Country Switzerland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Technical inputs.
Collaborator Contribution Technical inputs.
Impact Proposal submitted to undertake, in real-time, application of sub-seasonal forecasts for flood and drought early warning and early action in Kenya.
Start Year 2018
 
Description Adaptation Futures Conference, Cape Town, June 2018. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Adaptation Futures Conference, Cape Town, June 2018.
Presentations to 'Showcasing and learning from Forecast-based Financing case studies' session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Berlin Dialogue Platform 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The ForPAc project manager attended a 'Dialogue Platform' event on Forecast Based Financing organized by German Red Cross, in close cooperation with IFRC, the Red Cross Red
Crescent Climate Centre and WFP. The purpose was for ForPAc to be engaged with an event where collective knowledge and experience in science, policy and practice brings about innovative thinking and enhanced cooperation among the different actors in FbF.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.drk.de/fileadmin/user_upload/FBF/ReportBerlinDP17_final.pdf
 
Description Fathum Project Inception Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ForPAc PI & project manager attended the inception workshop for the 'Fathum' project (funded under the same NERC programme Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience; SHEAR). A short presentation about ForPAc was given and we shared some of the similarities and differences between the project, to establish where we could work together as well as learn from each others' projects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/fathum/2017/08/16/hello-world/
 
Description ForPAc 'Ignite' Presentation FbF Global Dialogue Platform Berlin October 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation entitled Where's the F in FbF?' -The talk focused on work done by the project on forecast improvement, since this was notably missing in most discussion at the platform. Firstly, the skill of seasonal forecasts from global models has been evaluated over the region. The result indicates there is higher predictability in the October-November-December (OND) than in the March-April-May (MAM) season. The outcome of the skill analysis is informing changes in the GHACOF process; making it the seasonal forecasting process objective and guiding the selection of models to be used.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ForPAc 2019 October- December season Pilot workshops 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact During our pilot of prototype forecast products in our drought case study, Kitui county we organised the following workshops.
- Kitui County Drought management stakeholders workshop 31st July and 1st August 2019 to introduce the early OND 2019 Forecast-Tercile and SPI optimized ForPAc forecast.
- Kitui County Drought management stakeholders workshop 26th September, 2019 to introduce ForPAc's optimized OND 2019 Forecast-Tercile and SPI, Hits and misses for various thresholds of SPI <-0.09 and SPI<-0.98, TAMSAT alert products and review actions developed with the early OND forecast in July.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ForPAc Drought case study stakeholder workshop event , climate training, Kitui County 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country Climate Training workshop (August).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description ForPAc Drought case study stakeholder workshop event Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis Aug 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country including a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (July)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description ForPAc Nairobi city flood case study stakeholder workshop event 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a tailored Climate training workshop in Nairobi in February 2019.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ForPAc Nairobi city flood case study stakeholder workshop event 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a 2nd Stakeholder meeting in Nairobi in June 2018
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description ForPAc News Article in Business Daily 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A detailed article about the ForPAc project and the challenges of seasonal forecasts in Kenya.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Weathermen-in-race-to-improve-their-forecasts/539546-422319...
 
Description ForPAc News Article in Nation Daily 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact An article about the ForPAc project was picked up by the main national Kenyan newspaper, the Nation Daily, online and in print. We think this has helped to raise awareness about drought forecasting and the ForPAc project in Kenya.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Major-boost-for-drought--flood-forecasting-efforts/1056-4113638-wj6et8...
 
Description ForPAc Press Reslease 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact ForPAc press release on the University of Sussex news page.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/41802
 
Description ForPAc Urban Flooding Stakeholder Day 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The urban flood workshop provided the opportunity to further develop partnerships on this issue, linking Urban Ark partners including the Nairobi Risk Partnership, the Kounkuey Design Initiative and city county officials with ForPAc partners including the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), 3Di flood mapping and International Water Stewardship Programme representatives. It helped us to better understand the root causes of urban flooding issues in Nairobi; understand the state of knowledge and existing early warning systems and engage with the key partners required to deliver on this system.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/db9d21_5af547bdaaec48218757f5eb30476d09.pdf
 
Description ForPAc key note on 'Towards a more Anticipatory Drought Early Warning Systems' in one of the side events; Early Warning Framework for Early Action,at GHACOF 53 27th-29thJanuary, 2020. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The event brought together DRM practitioners, meteorological services, key Sectors and Communicators. The event aimed to develop early warning frameworks for different hazards
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum GHACOF 51, February 2019, Entebbe, Ugand 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ForPAc presented about 'ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction.' ForPAc is included in the acknowledgements of the events.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, GHACOF 50, August 2018, Kigali 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ForPAc presented about 'ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction.' ForPAc is included in the acknowledgements of the events.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Greater Horn of Africa Regional Outlook Forum (GHACOF) 48 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A ForPAc stall and event was hosted at the 48th Greater Horn of Africa Regional Outlook Forum (GHACOF) event held in Mombasa. ForPAc research team members presented a poster about the project to disseminate knowledge and also conducted surveys on forecast information requirements with policymakers and forecasters present at the event. ForPAc was included in the GHACOF 48 statement as a contributor.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF48_Statement.pdf
 
Description International workshop on TAMSAT-ALERT climate services for the insurance industry 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact Attendees at the workshop included the major players in African drought insurance and climate services, from the World Food Organisation (R4), Pula, Risk Shield, Blue Marble, CIMMYT, One Acre Fund , the Ghana Meteorological Service and the Africa Risk Capacity. The chosen organisations were a mix of international, national and third sector organisations. This is the full list of attendees:

Emily Black (overall PI) University of Reading
Rahel Diro (co-PI, participatory lead) IRI (Columbia)
Helen Greatrex (co-PI) IRI (Columbia)

Federica Carfagna ARC
Tom Philp Blue Marble/XLCatlin
Thabbie Chilongo Center for Agricultural Research Development (CARD) - LUANAR
Peter Craufurd CIMMYT
Michael Tanu Ghana meteorological service
Patrick Lamptey Ghana meteorological service
Eric Asuman Ghana meteorological service
Dan Osgood IRI (Columbia)
Markus Enekel IRI (Columbia)
Bristol Powell IRI (Columbia)
Melody Braun IRI (Columbia)
Lisette Braman IRI (Columbia)
Step Aston One Acre Fund
Steven Kogo PULA Advisors
Rose Goslinga PULA Advisors
Kalie Gold PULA Advisors
Agrotosh Mookerjee Risk Shield
Ross Maidment University of Reading
Matthew Young University of Reading
Katie Cooper University of Reading
Daniela Cuellar WFP/R4
Hussein Madih WFP/R4
Jyothi Bylappa Maralenhalli WFP/R4
William Dick WFP/R4
Mathieu Dubreuil WFP/R4

At the workshop we demonstrated the new TAMSAT-ALERT tools and explored applications. The outcomes were:
- Progress towards applying the TAMSAT-ALERT for supporting planting date for >500,000 farmers (CIMMYT and 1AF)
- TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasting services for >1M Zambian farmers (Risk Shield)
- Objective rainy season identification code passed to Pula Consultants (reaching >500,000 farmers) (Pula)
- Inclusion of TAMSAT data in the Africa Risk Capacity portal (national level forecast based finance for most of Africa) (ARC)
- New research projects agreed with Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet)

The workshop will thus hugely expand the ODA impact of the TAMSAT-ALERT system developed during TAMSAT-ALERT and SatWIN-ALERT.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description NCAS Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Scientific presentation at NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science) multi-hazard early-warning workshop focussing on the 'Science of S2S prediction in ForPAc project'. Presenting headlines results such as the finding of strong predictability of seasonal rainfall totals for the East Africa short rains OND, pertinent questions from expert audience. Also early opportunity to 'spread word' about ForPAc project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description NORCAP Early Warning - Early Action meeting at ICPAC, Nairobi, November 2018. Leading Sessions 'Forecast based early warning' & 'Innovative Approaches & Solutions to FBEA & Early Warning'. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact NORCAP Early Warning - Early Action meeting at ICPAC, Nairobi, November 2018.
Leading Sessions 'Forecast based early warning' & 'Innovative Approaches & Solutions to FBEA & Early Warning'.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Nairobi County Flood management stakeholder workshops 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Nairobi County Flood management stakeholders learning event 14th January, 2020. The stakeholders agreed there is need to synergise all the projects working in Nairobi County Nairobi County flood management stakeholders workshop 13thFebruary, 2020Stakeholders were sensitized on various S2S product formats and they voted for the most useful, using prototype S2S forecast products for Nairobi Count.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presentations at Red Cross Africa FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Nairobi March 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Red Cross Africa FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Nairobi March 2018
Nairobi Platform Leading sessions: 'Enlightening Talks' session & 'Research on FbF' https://www.forecast-based-financing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Report_DP18Nairobi.pdf
Presented FbA Scoping study report (Todd, Kniveton co-authors)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.forecast-based-financing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Report_DP18Nairobi.pdf
 
Description Red Cross Global FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Berlin, October 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Red Cross Global FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Berlin, October 2018
Berlin 2018 Leading Sessions: SHEAR Research Outputs
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description SHEAR annual meeting, September 2018, Brighton 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentations at SHEAR annual meeting, September 2018, Brighton
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Understanding Risk Conference, Mexico City, May 2018. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ForPAc Early Career Researcher participating in 'Interdisciplinary Risk Communication Pressure Cooker' challenge event.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018