Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Sussex
Department Name: Sch of Global Studies
Abstract
Drought and flood events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, with significant impacts on long term development, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. Existing early warning systems (EWS) whilst improving remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations. Too often agencies and communities are only able to respond after a disaster has occurred rather than in advance, for a number of complex reasons. This project will address two of the primary limitations of EWS that hinder effective action in the face of hazard risks by;
1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons.
2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information.
Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money.
Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.
Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness action
The FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.
1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons.
2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information.
Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money.
Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.
Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness action
The FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.
Planned Impact
ForPAc is carefully designed to have direct and measurable impact during, and well beyond the timeframe and location of the project activities in Kenya. We will utilise a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (PIPA) framework and method to plan, monitor and evaluate the impact of our project. This will be rooted in, and flow from a coherent 'Theory of Change' established early in the project. Management structures include; 1). An impact sub-group led by co-I APHRC. 2) An advisory Panel (contingent on advice from SHEAR KE) providing strategic guidance, with representation from key regional organisations, civil society, donors and multi-laterals. ForPAc will generate impact because (i) we will improve existing EWS (ii) we include the key decision-making agencies and intermediaries to communities, building on partnerships already well established. The case study method of co-production of knowledge and stakeholder-driven deliberative processes will result in co-ownership of the process, direct applicability and development impact. We will strengthen the 'community of practice' in Kenya and beyond including 'champions' in relevant organisations, for continued legacy.
Benefits will accrue at 3 levels
(i) Local stakeholders. 1) 'delivery agencies' at Kenya county level e.g. government (agriculture, emergency services), and NGOs' operatives 2) communities themselves. Benefits: greater awareness of ForPAc innovations in early warning information and tools/approaches for preparedness planning. Method: enabling process of deep stakeholder engagement from the outset, starting with EWS mapping processes, and iterative process of EWS and portal development, within our continuous monitoring and evaluation.
(ii) National mandated agencies. The NDMA, KMD, Red Cross Kenya and NGOs within ALERT network. Operational practices will be directly influenced by the project's forecast-based action research e.g. improved methods of risk forecast production, early warning advice based on agreed decision "triggers" and improved standard operating procedures through new and improved tools. Through collaboration, iteration and co-production ForPAc will ensure a real sense of ownership of these innovations. Enhanced EWS capacity will strengthen national trust in the mandated agencies - encouraging uptake across government support in the future and will inform policy planning on DRR by government ministries. Outputs (products, portals training modules and decision tools) and lessons will be shared: Across IGAD nations through ICPAC the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum process; Across Africa through the wider networks of the team. In this way legacy impact is ensured.
(iii) 'Advocacy' level. Regional and international agencies that set agendas for DRR, such as ISDR, FAO, WMO, WFP, FEWSNet and national donors including DfID, utilising the extensive existing policy network of the project consortium. We will inform key policy makers and forums of best practice, cutting edge science, emerging challenges in the science and implementation of our innovations in EWS. Method: a programme of policy engagement including workshops and meetings with invited high-level agency representatives, interventions at forums, policy briefings.
Our UK/Kenya team has an excellent track record of delivering impact and policy engagement (see CVs and track records). Our Co-I's Pelling and Visman have experience in NERC Knowledge Exchange. ForPAc impact will draw on lessons from a wide array of related projects with Co-I involvement e.g. FCFA IMPALA and consortia; AdA consortium; ALERT; Urban-Ark; the Red Cross-Kenya Resilience Initiative; BRACED projects; WISER projects; International forecast initiatives of the WMO (SWFDP, S2S); EUROSIP and Copernicus seasonal predictions; Foresight 'Reducing Risks of Future Disasters'. These projects will also be cross-fertilised by ForPAc potentially multiplying our impact considerably.
Benefits will accrue at 3 levels
(i) Local stakeholders. 1) 'delivery agencies' at Kenya county level e.g. government (agriculture, emergency services), and NGOs' operatives 2) communities themselves. Benefits: greater awareness of ForPAc innovations in early warning information and tools/approaches for preparedness planning. Method: enabling process of deep stakeholder engagement from the outset, starting with EWS mapping processes, and iterative process of EWS and portal development, within our continuous monitoring and evaluation.
(ii) National mandated agencies. The NDMA, KMD, Red Cross Kenya and NGOs within ALERT network. Operational practices will be directly influenced by the project's forecast-based action research e.g. improved methods of risk forecast production, early warning advice based on agreed decision "triggers" and improved standard operating procedures through new and improved tools. Through collaboration, iteration and co-production ForPAc will ensure a real sense of ownership of these innovations. Enhanced EWS capacity will strengthen national trust in the mandated agencies - encouraging uptake across government support in the future and will inform policy planning on DRR by government ministries. Outputs (products, portals training modules and decision tools) and lessons will be shared: Across IGAD nations through ICPAC the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum process; Across Africa through the wider networks of the team. In this way legacy impact is ensured.
(iii) 'Advocacy' level. Regional and international agencies that set agendas for DRR, such as ISDR, FAO, WMO, WFP, FEWSNet and national donors including DfID, utilising the extensive existing policy network of the project consortium. We will inform key policy makers and forums of best practice, cutting edge science, emerging challenges in the science and implementation of our innovations in EWS. Method: a programme of policy engagement including workshops and meetings with invited high-level agency representatives, interventions at forums, policy briefings.
Our UK/Kenya team has an excellent track record of delivering impact and policy engagement (see CVs and track records). Our Co-I's Pelling and Visman have experience in NERC Knowledge Exchange. ForPAc impact will draw on lessons from a wide array of related projects with Co-I involvement e.g. FCFA IMPALA and consortia; AdA consortium; ALERT; Urban-Ark; the Red Cross-Kenya Resilience Initiative; BRACED projects; WISER projects; International forecast initiatives of the WMO (SWFDP, S2S); EUROSIP and Copernicus seasonal predictions; Foresight 'Reducing Risks of Future Disasters'. These projects will also be cross-fertilised by ForPAc potentially multiplying our impact considerably.
Organisations
- University of Sussex (Lead Research Organisation)
- Help Age International (Collaboration)
- Resurgence (Collaboration)
- International Committee of the Red Cross (Collaboration)
- World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal) (Collaboration)
- World Meteorological Organization (Collaboration)
- Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (Collaboration)
- Regional Centre For Mapping Resource For Development (Collaboration)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- WELTHUNGERHILFE (Collaboration)
- Centre for Disaster Protection (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) (Collaboration)
- KING'S COLLEGE LONDON (Collaboration)
- Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (Project Partner)
- University of Southampton (Project Partner)
- Christian Aid (Project Partner)
- Climate Centre (Project Partner)
Publications
MacLeod D
(2021)
Drivers and Subseasonal Predictability of Heavy Rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and Relationship with Flood Risk
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Mauerman M
(2022)
An Information-Theoretic Approach to Reconciling Historical Climate Observations and Impacts on Agriculture
in Weather, Climate, and Society
Muthoka J
(2021)
Mapping Opuntia stricta in the Arid and Semi-Arid Environment of Kenya Using Sentinel-2 Imagery and Ensemble Machine Learning Classifiers
in Remote Sensing
Muthoka J
(2022)
Assessing drivers of intra-seasonal grassland dynamics in a Kenyan savannah using digital repeat photography
in Ecological Indicators
Mwangi E
(2021)
Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya
in Climate and Development
Mwangi, Emmah
(2020)
Drought Risk Management: The Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action Approach
Nkiaka E
(2019)
Identifying user needs for weather and climate services to enhance resilience to climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa
in Environmental Research Letters
Description | Headline Operational drought and flood risk management in Kenya has changed from reactive to anticipatory forecast-based systems as a result of the ForPAc projects. Similarly AA systems for flood and drought risk management in the wider IGAD regional has been substantially enhanced Background: The problem Like much of East Africa Kenya suffers recurrent flood and drought events which strongly impact lives and livelihoods and the economy. Kenya is one of the World's more disaster prone countries. Climate change and increasing exposure is likely to increase these disaster risks in future Disaster risk management is currently insufficient. Although there is a well established drought management system, this remains largely reactive, with actions invoked only after drought declaration. Floods are less well managed with Early Warnings provided in only one river basin. Risk governance tends to be fragmented. What ForPAc set out to do The SHEAR ForPAc project aimed to improve Early Warning Systems and anticipatory preparedness for flood and droughts. Building on existing established relationships between UK and Kenya we first established a participatory process to bring together the agencies mandated for provision of forecasts (KMD, ICPAC and RCMRD) with risk management, response and preparedness (NDMA, County Govt ministries and KRCS). This process mapped out the complex existing EWS systems covering both drought in mostly rural, arid regions and flood risk for fluvial and pluvial flooding in both rural and urban contexts. The mapping covered information flows, response interventions, responsibilities and resource and finance issues. Then, we established a plan towards establishing Forecast-based anticipatory EWS. Cementing the partnerships and mapping a common set of agreed objectives and approaches was critical to the success of the project. The project research then directly addressed the two key challenges: 1. Improving forecasts. Drawing on the best available international science, and global/regional modelling (including from the Met Office) we co-produced and evaluated new forecasts of decision-relevant flood and drought metrics that can be directly used in the existing risk management systems. Our analysis shows that Kenya is a 'sweetspot' of predictability across a range of timescales from sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times. We developed a suite of new forecast products for decision-relevant indicators of drought (including rainfall, vegetation and soil moisture) and flood (including river flow and inundation maps) across a range of forecast lead times (from days to months) 2. Improving preparedness actions. We designed anticipatory decision-making processes, within the existing systems, triggered by these forecast products to mitigate hazard impacts. The explicit sharing of forecast skill assessments supports rational, evidence-based actions. The co-production processes and forecast skill assessments serve to build trust in the forecasts, ensuring forecasts are relevant and credible. These new forecast products were piloted with the risk management agencies for drought at the county level right down to flood risk in urban contexts. Workshops were held to explain the skill of these forecasts. This was directly linked to the appetite of decision makers to take certain actions in advance of hazard events e.g. establishing the 'tolerable' level of false alarm and action 'in vain'. The level of forecast skill that is deemed acceptable depends quite considerably on the decision making context and the preparedness actions being taken. 3. Enhancing Anticipatory Action across the wider IGAD region Overall we developed the tools and procedures to facilitate 'seamless forecast for seamless actions' The outcomes The value of the project is reflected in changes in operational procedures in Kenya by the nationally mandated agencies: The new forecast products are now being produced operationally by KMD and RCMRD in Kenya Quotes from the Director of Kenya Met Dept.: 'ForPAc has "Supported improvements in existing forecast operations across our forecast portfolio [including] new co-produced forecast products [e.g. the] improved and actionable seasonal/monthly forecasts...used in the [Kenya] drought phase classification system, sustainably formalised into KMD operations" . "ForPAc has improved the capacity of KMD to take advantage of the major advances in global forecasting and the appetite of our national risk management agencies, to respond to this opportunity" [Director, KMD]. Quotes from the Director of the Regional Centre for Mapping and Resource Development (RCMRD) for East Africa. [RCMRD] "now use the [ForPAc] algorithmsand softwareinto our own pipeline [to] produce the novel VCI forecast product, [which is] qualitatively different from anything we've been able to do before and provides our stakeholders with a decision making tool with much greater power" [Director General, RCMRD]' These new forecasts are being used in operational forecast based preparedness actions. The Kenya NDMA is now incorporating drought forecasts in their EWS bulletins with advisory actions with the intention to develop a forecast-based drought EWS (rather than the existing reactive system) across all the arid and semi arid counties of Kenya. Quotes from the CEO of NDMA: Following [ForPAc] research, several novel and skilful forecasts of key drought indicators... have been co-developed and piloted in several counties. As a consequence, the NDMA has developed a new template for its monthly drought bulletins...The template now includes[these] forecasts", "in order to reduce the impact, recovery time and costs associated with traditional drought response" and "giving stakeholders ample time to initiate drought preparedness actions" . "These projects have substantially advanced our drought Early Warning System" ForPAc "built trust of the decision makers in these forecasts and the capacity of stakeholders in the counties to interpret... forecast... and probabilistic information has greatly improved". [CEO, NDMA] Similarly, the drought and flood forecast are incorporated into the new operational Early Action Protocols of the Kenya Red Cross Society. Quotes from KRCS and RCCC "ForPAc "supported decision-making at KRCS" leading to "concrete changes in its practices in disaster risk management and underpinning a paradigm shift towards a more anticipatory approach" [Head of Research and Training, KRCS]. Further, ForPAc activities represent "a template of how to move towards anticipatory risk management within existing national frameworks" [Director, Red Cross Climate Centre]. "[T]he ForPAc project has supported and advanced the technical aspects of Forecast based Finance application, influenced the way FbF is being scaled up by highlighting the importance of mainstreaming, while underpinning capacity and dialogue between national Red Cross societies, risk management agencies and the global FbF movement" . The research provided "the technical capacity to guide the development of [anticipatory action] in Africa These changes to operations systems represent a major shift in risk management in Kenya. The sustainability of these changes is supported by extensive capacity building in the forecasting and risk management agencies, including embedded staffing We have aligned the project with other initiatives, notably the GCRF Africa-SWIFT programme and the WISER projects in the region For the wider IGAD regional a new Roadmap for AA has been produced by the regional centre ICPAC and a TWG established The future Longer term sustainability, development and extension of these advances will require further support for both the forecasting agencies to further refine decision-relevant forecasts and for risk management agencies and government to support increased capacity by a wider range of stakeholders to develop SOPs for forecast-based preparedness and the finance to support early actions. Effective EWS are a key step to building climate resilient livelihoods and economies in the face of climate change, as is reflected in national climate adaptation strategies. There is a strong case for adaptation finance to target the improvement of EWS |
Exploitation Route | here is a great opportunity to build on this research to improve anticipatory approaches to climate risk managmement in East Africa to build long term climate resilience |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Environment Other |
URL | http://www.forpac.org |
Description | ForPac Story in a nutshell (including the Impact & Integration projects INFORM and HiPAc) Headline Operational drought and flood risk management in Kenya has changed from reactive to anticipatory forecast-based systems as a result of the ForPAc projects Background: The problem Like much of East Africa Kenya suffers recurrent flood and drought events which strongly impact lives and livelihoods and the economy. Kenya is one of the World's more disaster prone countries. Climate change and increasing exposure is likely to increase these disaster risks in future Disaster risk management is currently insufficient. Although there is a well established drought management system, this remains largely reactive, with actions invoked only after drought declaration. Floods are less well managed with Early Warnings provided in only one river basin. Risk governance tends to be fragmented. What ForPAc set out to do The SHEAR ForPAc project aimed to improve Early Warning Systems and anticipatory preparedness for flood and droughts. Building on existing established relationships between UK and Kenya we first established a participatory process to bring together the agencies mandated for provision of forecasts (KMD, ICPAC and RCMRD) with risk management, response and preparedness (NDMA, County Govt ministries and KRCS). This process mapped out the complex existing EWS systems covering both drought in mostly rural, arid regions and flood risk for fluvial and pluvial flooding in both rural and urban contexts. The mapping covered information flows, response interventions, responsibilities and resource and finance issues. Then, we established a plan towards establishing Forecast-based anticipatory EWS. Cementing the partnerships and mapping a common set of agreed objectives and approaches was critical to the success of the project. The project research then directly addressed the two key challenges: 1. Improving forecasts. Drawing on the best available international science, and global/regional modelling (including from the Met Office) we co-produced and evaluated new forecasts of decision-relevant flood and drought metrics that can be directly used in the existing risk management systems. Our analysis shows that Kenya is a 'sweetspot' of predictability across a range of timescales from sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times. We developed a suite of new forecast products for decision-relevant indicators of drought (including rainfall, vegetation and soil moisture) and flood (including river flow and inundation maps) across a range of forecast lead times (from days to months) 2. Improving preparedness actions. We designed anticipatory decision-making processes, within the existing systems, triggered by these forecast products to mitigate hazard impacts. The explicit sharing of forecast skill assessments supports rational, evidence-based actions. The co-production processes and forecast skill assessments serve to build trust in the forecasts, ensuring forecasts are relevant and credible. These new forecast products were piloted with the risk management agencies for drought at the county level right down to flood risk in urban contexts. Workshops were held to explain the skill of these forecasts. This was directly linked to the appetite of decision makers to take certain actions in advance of hazard events e.g. establishing the 'tolerable' level of false alarm and action 'in vain'. The level of forecast skill that is deemed acceptable depends quite considerably on the decision making context and the preparedness actions being taken. Overall we developed the tools and procedures to facilitate 'seamless forecast for seamless actions' The outcomes The value of the project is reflected in changes in operational procedures in Kenya by the nationally mandated agencies: The new forecast products are now being produced operationally by KMD and RCMRD in Kenya Quotes from the Director of Kenya Met Dept.: 'ForPAc has "Supported improvements in existing forecast operations across our forecast portfolio [including] new co-produced forecast products [e.g. the] improved and actionable seasonal/monthly forecasts...used in the [Kenya] drought phase classification system, sustainably formalised into KMD operations" . "ForPAc has improved the capacity of KMD to take advantage of the major advances in global forecasting and the appetite of our national risk management agencies, to respond to this opportunity" [Director, KMD]. Quotes from the Director of the Regional Centre for Mapping and Resource Development (RCMRD) for East Africa. [RCMRD] "now use the [ForPAc] algorithmsand softwareinto our own pipeline [to] produce the novel VCI forecast product, [which is] qualitatively different from anything we've been able to do before and provides our stakeholders with a decision making tool with much greater power" [Director General, RCMRD]' These new forecasts are being used in operational forecast based preparedness actions. The Kenya NDMA is now incorporating drought forecasts in their EWS bulletins with advisory actions with the intention to develop a forecast-based drought EWS (rather than the existing reactive system) across all the arid and semi arid counties of Kenya. Quotes from the CEO of NDMA: Following [ForPAc] research, several novel and skilful forecasts of key drought indicators... have been co-developed and piloted in several counties. As a consequence, the NDMA has developed a new template for its monthly drought bulletins...The template now includes[these] forecasts", "in order to reduce the impact, recovery time and costs associated with traditional drought response" and "giving stakeholders ample time to initiate drought preparedness actions" . "These projects have substantially advanced our drought Early Warning System" ForPAc "built trust of the decision makers in these forecasts and the capacity of stakeholders in the counties to interpret... forecast... and probabilistic information has greatly improved". [CEO, NDMA] Similarly, the drought and flood forecast are incorporated into the new operational Early Action Protocols of the Kenya Red Cross Society. Quotes from KRCS and RCCC "ForPAc "supported decision-making at KRCS" leading to "concrete changes in its practices in disaster risk management and underpinning a paradigm shift towards a more anticipatory approach" [Head of Research and Training, KRCS]. Further, ForPAc activities represent "a template of how to move towards anticipatory risk management within existing national frameworks" [Director, Red Cross Climate Centre]. "[T]he ForPAc project has supported and advanced the technical aspects of Forecast based Finance application, influenced the way FbF is being scaled up by highlighting the importance of mainstreaming, while underpinning capacity and dialogue between national Red Cross societies, risk management agencies and the global FbF movement" . The research provided "the technical capacity to guide the development of [anticipatory action] in Africa These changes to operations systems represent a major shift in risk management in Kenya. The sustainability of these changes is supported by extensive capacity building in the forecasting and risk management agencies, including embedded staffing We have aligned the project with other initiatives, notably the GCRF Africa-SWIFT programme and the WISER projects in the region The future Longer term sustainability, development and extension of these advances will require further support for both the forecasting agencies to further refine decision-relevant forecasts and for risk management agencies and government to support increased capacity by a wider range of stakeholders to develop SOPs for forecast-based preparedness and the finance to support early actions. Effective EWS are a key step to building climate resilient livelihoods and economies in the face of climate change, as is reflected in national climate adaptation strategies. There is a strong case for adaptation finance to target the improvement of EWS |
First Year Of Impact | 2018 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Other |
Impact Types | Societal Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Capacity development at the Kenya Water Resources Authority (WRA) |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or Improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved flood risk management Through the HyPac projects (ForPAc HyFlood collaboration) the WRA of Kenya has improved capacity to (i) model flood inundation risk i.e. food risk maps for key flood-prone basins (ii) link these to river flood forecast. End result if food inundation forecasting. This is not yet opererational but is at proof of concept stage |
Description | Changes to the Kenya Red Cross Multi Hazard Contingency Planning Process |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The KRCS Multi Hazard Contingency Planning is updated twice a year; February and September, which is just before the rain seasons. This has been largely tied to the release of forecasts. The hazards considered are floods, drought, epidemics, conflict and other non-cyclic hazards like road accidents. The MHCP is used for resource mobilization at County, regional and national level. Following engagement with ForPAc KRCS's Multi-hazard Contingency Planning system now adopts "a likelihood approach [using] multi-model forecasts... available at different lead-times enabling staggered and evolving institutional planning", based on "increased understanding and use of climate forecasts probabilities and uncertainty" This emerged as follows - In the February 2019 meeting, Researchers from ICHA presented a status of the climate including the performance of OND 2018 season and the outlook of MAM. ForPAc's MAM and OND skill at different lead times plus extracts of Kilavi et. al paper on the low predictability of MAM season were used. This was to emphasis the limited information given by the MAM seasonal forecast and the needto use sub seasonal forecast. The key message during the process was that the plans shouldn't be rigid, they should be flexible enough to be updated when climate information is updated. ForPAc researchers are now providing sub seasonal forecasts to facilitate updating of the MHCP.-In the September 2019 meeting, there were discussions to shift the timing so that it's able to inform the institution's plans and budget process that starts in June/July.However, the main concern is if there will be a forecast available at this time to support planning. This is now a proposedentry point for ForPAc with our early OND forecast product. |
Description | Development of the regional road map on Anticipatory Actions for East Africa and Greater Horn of Africa |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | New operating procedures for weather/climate risk management by multiple agencies across East/greater Horn of Africa see https://igad.int/download/the-igad-regional-roadmap-for-anticipatory-action/ |
URL | https://igad.int/download/the-igad-regional-roadmap-for-anticipatory-action/ |
Description | Enhancement of forecasting procedures at ICPAC |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Impact | Forecasting procedures at ICPAC enhanced 1. ForPAc / W2SIP staff sitting on 'Technical Advisory Committee', recent skill evaluation work from ForPAc staff presented to the committee led them to suggest the use of all models to form ensemble forecasting system based on their weights(according to skill strengths), with the potential for significant changes to the predominant models used at ICPAC and other regional climate centres (see partnerships). 2. ICPAC now use the Met office Global Hazard map to inform severe weather advisories, to good effect in September 2018 (see databases & platforms) Results in improved forecasts form ICPAC |
Description | Enhancement of forecasting procedures at KMD |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved forecasting procedures at KMD 1. Transfer to KMD of means of production of new decision-relevant forecasts of metrics used in NDMA drought EWS based on optimised forecasting method. Training provided through a number of trainings to KMD in May and Dec 2020. Forecasts now produced operationally by KMD starting with the OND 2021 season SPI products were sustained by KMD for last OND with only minimal support from Met Office i.e. they effectively operationalised (or institutionalised as they prefer to say) the production. Met Office set up a Github sharing platform with KMD to safely manage and further develop the code. The SPI products were also integrated into the KND published national forecast. The new season lead forecast is now operationally included the national outlook 2. KMD now use the Met office Global Hazard map to inform severe weather advisories, to good effect in September 2018, when they used the GHM to inform a KMD advisory forecast issued on 24th September 2018 moderate probability of heavy rain and flooding in the Mombasa and coastal region of Kenya. 3. Kenya Met Department staff have changed the form in which climate forecasts are prepared by acknowledging uncertainty in climate forecasts, following a training module developed at Sussex and skill assessment of KMD forecasts by ForPAc project 4. KMD staff x2 attended WCRP/WMO S2S real time pilot hackathon in early 2020 to develop the bespoke S2S products 5. Training on soil moisture forecast production has been carried out at KMD but not yet operationalised ForPAc has "Supported improvements in existing forecast operations across our forecast portfolio [including] new co-produced forecast products [e.g. the] improved and actionable seasonal/monthly forecasts...used in the [Kenya] drought phase classification system, sustainably formalised into KMD operations" [Director, KMD] "ForPAc has improved the capacity of KMD to take advantage of the major advances in global forecasting and the appetite of our national risk management agencies, to respond to this opportunity |
URL | http://www.kmd.gov.ke |
Description | IGAD Regional Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Action |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Under the Regional Roadmap on AA, the RTGWAA advises IGAD governments on implementation of AA for climate risk management |
URL | https://www.icpac.net/publications/terms-of-reference-for-regional-technical-working-on-anticipatory... |
Description | Improved forecast information & informing risk management practices - Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Impact | Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) 51st conference - ICPAC & ForPAC scientists provided pre-seasonal forecast training and operational climate prediction support to the climate forecasters from the 10-ICPAC member countries (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania and Djibouti), during the capacity building training workshop held from 4 to 9 February 2019 at ICPAC in Nairobi. The workshop did all the climate modelling work leading to the consensus forecasts for GHACOF51 for the GHA/ East Africa region for the season March to May 2019. Also: Dr Mutemi also made presentation on ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction. ForPAc is included in the acknowledges of GHACOF 51 because of this support & engagement. http://icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf |
URL | http://icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF51_Statement.pdf |
Description | Improved understanding of probabilistic forecasts and risk management practices among stakeholders involved in Nairobi flood risk management |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a 2nd Stakeholder meeting in Nairobi in June 2018 followed by a tailored Climate training workshop in Nairobi in February 2019. This has led to close collaboration with a number of stakeholders and initiatives: Nairobi City County Govt DRM planning: KMD is now advising or on some steering meeting Nairobi County disaster management and coordination office - The draft county disaster management plan has been shared with the project with a view to contribute to its development and review. MK giving improved information to the NCC Transport and infrastructure dept and shared flood databases we have. There is also now an improved understanding of probabilistic forecasts and risk management practices among stakeholders involved in Nairobi flood work. 80% of participants in our recent Nairobi county climate training event said they now had a strengthened understanding of forecasts, and 83% of participants felt better able to identify preparedness activities. We have also raised awareness and sensitization around drivers of flood risk in the Nairobi area among our stakeholders and more broadly, for example, Mary Kilavi, ForPAc Researcher at KMD contributed to a widely read article in the The Ecologist on 'Nairobi's recipe for floods'. This work was extending during 2020 through the WMO/WCRP S2S real time pilot. Bespoke forecasts of heavy flood-related rainfall at sub-seasonal leadtimes were developed and disseminated to stakeholders |
URL | https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/26/nairobis-recipe-floods |
Description | Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices - Drought Early Warning System |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country including a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (July) and a Climate Training workshop (August). These workshops led to improved awareness and links with Kitui county drought management processes and also at nationally mandated agencies. Led to: February 2019 county commissioner meeting and county steering group meeting, where ForPAc gave a presentation. January 2019 national level engagement with the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) CEO Mr James Oduor on 31st January, 2019. Mr Oduor acknowledge that the proposed products will be useful in drought risk management. We have also contributed to, and presented at, a meeting of the Ending Drought Emergencies on 20th February 2019 (the Kenyan national drought policy framework) and at the Kenya Food Security Steering Group meeting in Nakuru, Kenya on 24th February - 1st March (national oversight of drought early warning system). |
Description | Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices - Kenya Red Cross Society |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved usage of forecast information in informing risk management practices. Specifically, the two KRCS disaster risk management systems have been improved: 1. In the new nationwide Early Action Protocols for flood and drought, the ForPAc research was "used in the development of forecasts and thresholds for triggering early action" . This has also "ensured better alignment of [KRCS] Early Action Protocols with [other] existing systems such that indicators and triggers will be consistent with those of national mandated agencies" [S5]. The new flood EAP was informed by ForPAc , specifically the assessment of flood forecast skill and derivation of appropriate triggers across lead times. This EAP has now been approved and is operational The drought EAP was informed by ForPAc, and includes the new co-produced forecasts of VCI and SPI now operationally produced by RCMRD and KMD. The triggers choice was inforned by our research. This EAP has now been submitted for validation by the IFRC as of 2022 KRCS's EAPs were approved by IFRC. Triggers for both EAPs were influenced by ForPAc research; GloFAS skill analysis and SPI. Drought-early actions will be triggered as early as July based on the long lead OND forecast. https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-drought-early-action-protocol-summary-eap2022ke02 https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/kenya-riverine-floods-early-action-protocol-summary-eap2021ke01 Although the drought EAP was approved early this year, KRCS has also done two mini-EAP activations; OND 2021 (Kitui & West Pokot) and OND 2020 (Kitui and Kwale). Kitui is prioritised partly because of the CSG's earlier engagement with AA through ForPAC. https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/harvesting-the-benefits-of-anticipatory-action 2 Further, KRCS's Multi-hazard Contingency Planning system now adopts "a likelihood approach [using] multi-model forecasts... available at different lead-times enabling staggered and evolving institutional planning", based on "increased understanding and use of climate forecasts probabilities and uncertainty ForPAc Researchers from ICHA presented a status of the climate including the performance of OND 2018 season and the outlook of MAM. ForPAc's MAM and OND skill at different lead times plus extracts of Kilavi et. al paper on the low predictability of MAM season were also used. This explained the limited information availed by the MAM seasonal forecast and the need to use sub seasonal forecasts in addition. The key message received by KRCS policy makers was that plans should be flexible enough to be updated when climate information is updated. Short policy brief published for KRCS / ICHA audience further emphasises the importance of using climate information: Red Cross ICHA Policy Brief on 'Forecast Based Preparedness Action'': |
URL | http://icha.net/media/pdf/634_FORECAST%20BASED%20PREPAREDNESS%20PULL%20OUT.pdf |
Description | Improved weather/climate forecast verification at regional climate centre for Greater Horn of Africa ICPAC |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved forecast verification leading to greater credibility of forecast information |
URL | https://www.icpac.net/rcc/skill-diagnostics/ |
Description | NDMA Kenya (National Drought Management Authority) have new Drought Bulletin incorporating forecasts for the first time, using ForPAc project forecasts of decision relevant metrics |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Better drought risk management information for anticipatory risk management The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) of Kenya has advanced the national drought Early Warning System from being reactive to partially forecast-based "Following [ForPAc] research, several novel and skilful forecasts of key drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Vegetation Condition Index, VCI; Soil Moisture) have been co-developed and piloted in several counties, including a 7-couty pilot during Oct-Dec 2020 rainfall season As a consequence, the NDMA has developed a new template for its monthly drought bulletins...The template now includes[these] forecasts" [CEO, NDMA]. The new forecasts enable NDMA to manage drought risk better, "in order to reduce the impact, recovery time and costs associated with traditional drought response". The new forecasts enabled earlier warning with forecasts for Oct-Dec issued as early as July 2020, "giving stakeholders ample time to initiate drought preparedness actions". In summary, "These projects have substantially advanced our drought Early Warning System". Monthly production, being shared through NDMA 7-county pilot with drought information officers, and included in NDMA bulletins. These forecast are now included in the monthly drought bulletins of the NDMA This is being scaled out across all 23 ASAL counties in Kenya Further NDMA are now undertaking a review of the whole drought EWS with a view to redesigning a forecast-based system, informed by ForPAc Update 2023: Forecasts continue to be included in NDMA monthly drought bulletins |
URL | https://www.ndma.go.ke/ |
Description | New National Road map on Anticipatory Action in flod/drought risk management spearheaded by WFP and the Kenya Red Cross |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved weather/climate risk management |
Description | New drought forecast products for Greater Horn of Africa produced by regional forecasting centre ICPAC |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | Improved drought risk management through production and dissemination of decision-relevant forecasts |
URL | https://geoportal.icpac.net/ |
Description | New drought risk management Anticipatory Action Initiative in 2 counties in kenya |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to new or improved professional practice |
Impact | New drought risk management Anticipatory Action Initiative in 2 counties (Wajir and Marsabit) in Kenya by the WFP This leads on from ForPAc initiatives and builds on the regional AA 'roadmap' This has also prompted a willingness by WFP to fund KMD's access to ECMWF's sub-seasonal data. |
Description | On-line training course on Co-Production for African National Meteorological Services |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The course aims to improve interaction between climate scientists and stakeholders as well as improving the production of tailored climate services. Now avilable via the WMO Global Campus page. It is under the "Current" (blue) lower tab at the following website https://learningevents.wmo.int/#/. |
URL | http://walker.ac.uk/about-walker/news-events/learning-to-co-produce-course-goes-live-on-walker-acade... |
Description | Optimized objective forecasting method with ICPAC -Optimized objective forecasting method. |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | ForPAc science supported ICPAC (the designated regional centre for climate prediction for the Greater Horn of Africa) to improve the method by which it produces its seasonal forecasts in many ways. 1. From 2019 ICPAC now utilise a "new objective, traceable and reproducible seasonal forecast method". These forecasts are disseminated "to different stakeholders/sectors over the region for informed decision-making processes". In 2017 the World Meterological Organisation decided that the climate model methodology had developed sufficiently to replace the semi-subjective method, ICPAC was ready. In 2019 a Steering Group was set up to achieve this, Dr Zewdu Segele, head of ICPAC's Climate Modelling Group said:"We had been developing facilities to make use of the climate modelling for some years and with additional support from the UK government'sWISER-W2SIP,SHEAR-ForPAcandGCRF African SWIFTprojects -as well as a new high power computing cluster funded by the WISER programme -we were able to be one of the first RCCs to adopt the objective approach, based primarily on climate models, and feed the information to our member states National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). This is a transformational change! It replaces 20 years of the semi-subjective approach and heralds a new era in seasonal forecast services. The objective approach is based more deeply in the underlying climate science and is much better suited to development of customized services for our sectoral areas." see ICPAC 2019 Technical note https://medium.com/@icpac/improved-seasonal-forecast-for-eastern-africa-57872645f449. Sept 2020: The East African regional Food Security and Nutrition Steering Group issued their first food security warning in September 2020, based on this new robust forecast method, informing risk management stakeholders across the region. see Food Security and Nutrition Working Group alert https://www.icpac.net/fsnwg/alert-impact-below-normal-oct-dec-2020-rains-food-security-and-nutrition/. 2. Further, discussion are ongoing to ensure the the ForPAc VCI products are ingested into the ICPAC hazard and drought monitor data portals for wider use by all stakeholders. 3. ICPAC now also provide forecasts of SPI, which is amore decision-relevant drought metric. This has been informed by the SPI forecasts produced for NDMA under the ForPac project 4. ICPAC have developed a Roadmap for the scale out of Forecast-based Action approaches across the entire IGAD region |
URL | https://medium.com/@icpac/improved-seasonal-forecast-for-eastern-africa-57872645f449 |
Description | RCMRD operational production of new forecast products |
Geographic Reach | Africa |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The Regional Centre for Mapping and Resource Development (RCMRD) for East Africa "now use the ForPAc algorithmsand softwareinto our own pipeline [to] produce the novel VCI forecast product, [which is] qualitatively different from anything we've been able to do before and provides our stakeholders with a decision making tool with much greater power" [Director General, RCMRD]. |
URL | http://rcmrd.org |
Description | influenced design of the Start network Drought Risk Management systems |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | The DRiSL project is a 'demand-driven project', primarily to provide evidence to support Humanitarian organisations in developing drought risk models as part of their Drought Risk Financing systems, specifically the Start Network's Disaster Risk Finance initiatives (DRF). Start is a network of major international NGOs. DRiSL has influenced the development of the drought DRF systems operated by Start and partners in a number of ways and has informed the use of more refined and robust drought disaster risk model design. First, our initial results highlighted problems with the candidate drought model from an existing consultant. On that basis Start has decided to develop alternative designs for the various countries in which it operates depending on the particular agricultural and climatic conditions prevailing in each case. As such DRiSL has helped inform and refine the choice of biophysical drought indictors in both the Madagascar DRF and Pakistan DRF (which included new bespoke products developed by the DRiSL partner University of Reading) . Second, DRiSL sought to quantify the nature and magnitude of 'basis risk' in DRF systems related to (i) uncertainty in drought biophysical metrics (ii) the complex link between biophysical drought and socio-economic outcomes that drive actual humanitarian need. This evidence has led to the development of a 'Due Diligence' guide for humanitarian organisations to guide design of science-informed disaster risk finance models, to account for sources of basis risk. This is available here https://startnetwork.org/resource/scientific-due-diligence-humanitarian-disaster-risk-financing and a video summary here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef2FgI_4qZE. (This guide was intended to be released at a joint conference with the Centre for Disaster Protection in March 2020 which was cancelled due to COVID). Overall, the evidence generated by DRiSL has reinforced Start network awareness of basis risk, leading to system design to account for this, which now include flexible systems in which a binary trigger based system is complemented with flexible contingency funding (with secondary triggers). |
URL | https://startnetwork.org/resource/scientific-due-diligence-humanitarian-disaster-risk-financing |
Description | Applying Astronomy Data Analysis to enhance disaster forecasting |
Amount | £100,462 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ST/R004811/1 |
Organisation | Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 03/2019 |
Description | CLimate Adaptation and Resilience In Tropical drYlands (CLARITY). CLARE programme |
Amount | $8,000,000 (CAD) |
Organisation | International Development Research Centre |
Sector | Public |
Country | Canada |
Start | 03/2023 |
End | 10/2026 |
Description | DRiSL: The Drought Risk finance Science Laboratory |
Amount | £369,401 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/R014272/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2018 |
End | 06/2020 |
Description | Exploiting environmental data for food security in Africa: a new rainfall dataset for monitoring and early action |
Amount | £160,351 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Reading |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 07/2019 |
End | 07/2021 |
Description | HiPAc |
Amount | £145,437 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2020 |
End | 04/2020 |
Description | INFORMets |
Amount | £20,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2020 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | INtegrated FORecasting for Mitigation of risk |
Amount | £152,782 (GBP) |
Organisation | UK Department for International Development |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2020 |
End | 12/2020 |
Description | Learning to co-produce |
Amount | £20,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2020 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | NERC SHEAR DTC |
Amount | £1,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2018 |
End | 12/2021 |
Description | Probabilistic Forecasting of Food Security in Africa |
Amount | £66,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Sussex |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 06/2020 |
Description | Strengthening PAStoralist livelihoodS in the African Greater horn through Effective anticipatory action (PASSAGE), CLARE programme |
Amount | $8,000,000 (CAD) |
Organisation | International Development Research Centre |
Sector | Public |
Country | Canada |
Start | 03/2023 |
End | 10/2026 |
Description | Sussex Social Science Impact Fund |
Amount | £20,080 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Sussex |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2018 |
End | 03/2019 |
Description | Sussex Sustainability Research Programme - Prediction of food security crises and effective responses |
Amount | £100,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | University of Sussex |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2017 |
End | 06/2019 |
Title | Database at high resolution of flood inundation for Nairobi from the 3Di model |
Description | Database at high resolution of flood inundation for Nairobi from the 3Di model |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Shared with Nairobi City County Government Disaster Risk Management team |
Title | Database on drought risk, expressed in event return periods, over Kenya derived from observations and large ensemble climate models. |
Description | Database on drought risk, expressed in event return periods, over Kenya derived from observations and large ensemble climate models. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | none |
Title | Decision-relevant drought indices: Country and admin level-1 Soil Moisture and drought indices with associated Return Periods 1 for three target countries: |
Description | Multiple decision-relevant drought indices: Country and admin level-1 Soil Moisture and drought indices from multiple sources of data with associated Return Periods 1 for three target countries: Zimbabwe, Pakistan and Madagascar |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | support DRiSL project |
Title | Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics |
Description | Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to ICPAC |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Digitised archive of ICPAC seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to ICPAC |
Title | Digitised archive of KMD forecasts and generated associated skill statistics |
Description | Digitised archive of KMD weather-subseasonal-seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from KMD and GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to KMD, and users |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Digitised archive of KMD weather-subseasonal-seasonal forecasts and generated associated skill statistics Added value to existing seasonal forecasts of rainfall from KMD and GHACOF by assessing the skill. Providing skill statistics to KMD, and users |
Title | Forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal rainfall forecasts from models in Copernicus archive with associated skill statistics over Greater Horn of Africa |
Description | Forecasts of subseasonal and seasonal rainfall forecasts from models in Copernicus archive with associated skill statistics over Greater Horn of Africa |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Informed Red Cross Multi Hazard contingency planning procedures |
Title | GHACOF and KMD data digitisiations |
Description | Digitisation of past GHACOF consensus forecasts and past KMD national seasonal forecasts |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | n/a |
Title | Gridded data from GCM sensitivity experiments |
Description | Gridded data from GCM sensitivity experiments on East Africa rainfall representation in subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Forthcoming |
Title | Gridded moisture back-track data |
Description | Kenya-targeted gridded moisture back-track data sourced from Africa and Indian Ocean |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | N/A |
Title | Key Informant Interviews and Scorecards |
Description | Key Informant Interviews and Scorecards aimed at understanding existing flood/ drought early warning systems (EWS) in terms of decision - making processes, actors, contexts and capacities |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2017 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Project working paper - a summary of existing early warning systemsin Kenya and regional initiatives in the Greater Horn of Africa |
Title | Long-lead seasonal forecast of decision-relevant metrics, with skill information |
Description | Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite of forecasts of metrics used in drought EWS, with longer lead time better aligned with hazard risk management decision-making timeframes, to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019 engagements with Kitui county drought contingency planning meetings. The longer lead of the forecast was used to trial potential early actions, as the timescale was novel for stakeholders, as were the forecast metrics, which allowed the forecast to sit within existing decision making systems. We are now working on capacity building for KMD conducted with the desire to move toward operationalisation by KMD in the future. |
Title | Met Office Global Hazard map for East Africa |
Description | Technical work on migrating the external Global Hazard Map to a different cloud server in preparation for an externally available East Africa Hazard Map underway. |
Type Of Material | Data handling & control |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The Global Hazard Map is now accessed by both KMD & ICPAC. The GHM was used to inform a KMD advisory forecast issued on 24th September 2018 moderate probability of heavy rain and flooding in the Mombasa and coastal region of Kenya. |
Title | Monthly rainfall forecast with skill assessment. Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite. |
Description | New forecasts with improved reliability to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019. Training and capacity building for KMD conducted |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This forecast product was used to get stakeholders to trial what decisions could be made under a more forecast-based system. Because it is allows the update of information over 'sub-seasonal' timescales - which allows stakeholders to make 'ready, set, go' decisions, and as with the previous model recorded, also includes skill-information these forecasts build a long term perspective & trust. We hope to move this product to being operationalised by the Kenya met department. |
Title | New model for forecasting satellite derived vegetation condition index (VCI) for anticipatory drought risk management |
Description | Statistical forecast algorithm providing forecasts up to 12 weeks lead time for VCI. developed and evaluated over Kenya and East Africa |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | VCI forecast products means of production established at the RCMRD in Kenya, and backstopped by production at University of Sussex.. Products then provided to the NDMA in Kenya for inclusion on their monthly county drought bulletins |
Title | Optimised Multi model seasonal climateforecast of decision-relevant metrics, with skill information. Part of our 'seamless lead time' forecast suite |
Description | New forecasts of metrics used in drought EWS with improved reliability to support drought and flood risk management by mandated agencies in Kenya. Prototype developed and disseminated during 2019. Training and capacity building for KMD conducted |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Prototype forecast piloted though our workshop engagements in Kitui and Nairobi asking stakeholders what decisions they could make using this new information. Releasing skill information of the forecasts was also novel and built new understanding and trust in policymakers about how they could use this information. We are now working with forecasting agencies to see if they can ope rationalise these forecasts and release them in 2020 onward. |
Title | Prototype climate forecast product:' Optimised' seasonal forecast GPC multi-model product (with skill statistics) Downscaled for Kitui county |
Description | Prototype climate forecast product:' Optimised' seasonal forecast GPC multi-model product (with skill statistics) Downscaled for Kitui county |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Pilot in Kenya Drought EWS |
Title | Prototype forecast products |
Description | Prototype climate forecast product: Extended range seasonal forecasts for Oct-Dec season rainfall over Greater Horn of Africa (with skill statistics) |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Pilot in Kenya Drought EWS |
Title | TAMSAT-ALERT decision support framework |
Description | TAMSAT-ALERT (The TAMSAT Agricultural Early Warning System) outputs community level agricultural risk assessments based on multiple streams of data, including Earth Observation, Reanalysis and meteorological forecasts. In essence, the system addresses the question: 'Given the state of the land surface, the stage in the growing season and the meteorological forecast, what is the chance of some adverse agricultural outcome?'. So far the system has been implemented for seasonal drought risk assessment, planting date decision support and probabilistic crop yield forecasting. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | - Early warning of agricultural drought in northern Ghana during 2017 (system also run in 2018) - Plans for field trials of the planting date decision support |
Title | TAMSAT-ALERT: Prototype climate forecast product Forecasts of agriculturally relevant metrics: |
Description | The Tamsat-Alert system has been calibrated to produce weekly forecasts of end of season Water Requirement Satisfaction Index over kenya on a 25km grid |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Piloted in Kenya drought EWS. TAMSAT-ALERT forecasts are now routinely issued via the TAMSAT website subsetting tool (https://data.tamsat.org.uk/) for up to 5 months in the future. The forecasts, along with the soil moisture observations, are being used within the agricultural and financial sectors for agricultural decision support (in partnership with One Acre Fund), weather index insurance (in partnership with Risk Shield) and forecast-based finance (in partnership with the Start Network). TAMSAT operations lead, Ross Maidment, will use his Knowledge Exchange fellowship to encourage further take up of the TAMSAT-ALERT products by the financial sector. |
Title | Test ensemble runs of operational KMD and HYDROMAD flood forecasting system for 2018 case studies |
Description | Test ensemble runs of operational KMD and Hydromad flood forecasting system for 2018 case studies |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Inform flood forecast system development and design |
Title | Verification of MOGREPS-G rainfall forecasts over Nzoia Basin |
Description | Verification of MOGREPS-G rainfall forecasts over Nzoia Basin |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Informed potential for improved heavy rain advisories and flood forecasting in kenya |
Title | Verification of multi-day rainfall over case study regions in Kenya (Nzoia & Nairobi) gridpoint rainfall forecasts from ECMWF 18km ENS, up to a lead time of 15 days. |
Description | Verification of multi-day rainfall over case study regions in Kenya (Nzoia & Nairobi) gridpoint rainfall forecasts from ECMWF 18km ENS, up to a lead time of 15 days. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Informed potential for improved heavy rain advisories and flood forecasting in kenya |
Title | Water Resources Satisfaction Index data generated for decision-relevant crop types in Zimbabwe using calibrated and validated Tamsat-Alert system |
Description | Water Resources Satisfaction Index data generated for decision-relevant crop types in Zimbabwe using calibrated and validated Tamsat-Alert system |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Supports DRiSL project |
Title | Winter wheat yield prediction model for Pakistan |
Description | An NDVI-based yield prediction model was developed for the Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan. The model takes high resolution, publicly available NDVI data as input and uses the TAMSAT-ALERT approach to predict the evolution of NDVI at district scale over a season. A machine learning approach is used to relate the NDVI to district crop yields. This enables us to anticipate which districts in the three provicnes are likely to experience low winter wheat yield. The model has proved highly skillful at predicting winter wheat yield from February onwards (winter wheat is planted in November and harvested in April). In 2020-2021 season, the model was successfully implemented for Punjab and Sindh and it was extended to Balochistan in 2021-2022. The model is the basis for the START Networks Disaster Risk Financing scheme for Pakistan winter drought. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The model enabled a disaster risk financing scheme to be implemented for Pakistan by the START Network for the first time, with significant impact on the rural populations of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. |
Title | database of flood events in nairobi |
Description | Database of historical flood events (>400 unique historical flood events, 1978 to present) in Nairobi based on grey literature (e.g., newspaper reports, government reports, twitter, personal blogs, etc.). For each flood there can be multiple sources of information which has been indicated. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Shared with Nairobi City County Government Disaster Risk Management team |
Description | Collaboration with ALERT - research assistant project |
Organisation | Help Age International |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Research and analysis to explore the demand for and specific requirements of weather and climate information in two case study countries of the Help Age ALERT project and also complement research on the NERC-DfID SHEAR consortium project 'ForPAc'. |
Collaborator Contribution | Help Age / ALERT providec in country support in the Phillipines and access to NGO partners for interviews and focus groups. |
Impact | Forthcoming: Policy Brief on Climate hazard forecasting and monitoring for improved Disaster Risk Reduction in Kenya: Forthcoming: Policy Brief on Climate hazard forecasting and monitoring for improved Disaster Risk Reduction in the Philippines: and Report entitled "Using Climate and Weather Information for Humanitarian Preparedness - a case study of forecast use in Kenya and the Philippines and its linkage to the online preparedness platform ALERT. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Collaboration with GCRF project Tomorrow's Cities |
Organisation | King's College London |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | contributing to assessment and forecasting of flood risk for Nairobi |
Collaborator Contribution | Link to University of Nairobi |
Impact | none |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Collaboration with Global Centre for Disaster Protection |
Organisation | Centre For Disaster Protection |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | DRiSL project researcher Clare Harris at Start network seconded to GCDP |
Collaborator Contribution | to be decided |
Impact | none yet |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Collaboration with RCMRD |
Organisation | Regional Centre For Mapping Resource For Development |
Department | RCMRD |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Sussex provided RCMRD with the code for deriving forecasts of Vegetation Condition Index (from Barrett et al 2020). RCMRD have operationalised production of VCI forecasts in real time and dissemination to NDMA |
Collaborator Contribution | as above |
Impact | operational production of VCI forecasts by RCMRD |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Collaboration with Red Cross Climate centre Anticipation Hub |
Organisation | Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Provision and sharing of project learning via briefs on RCCC AH site |
Collaborator Contribution | RCCC provide AH platform |
Impact | project briefings now on AH |
Start Year | 2020 |
Description | Collaboration with WISER project Daraja |
Organisation | Resurgence |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | WISER project Daraja (Developing Anticipatory Risk Awareness & Joint Action) Project Advised on project development (see further funding). Joined inception and co-design workshops and planning meetings held on 7th and 8th February 2019 - contributions include advising on forecast products for Nairobi county, drawing from initial ForPAc work reviewing and skill assessing these, facilitating input from the key stakeholder groups into the design of city-wide and settlement level pilot weather and climate information services. |
Collaborator Contribution | WISER project Daraja (Developing Anticipatory Risk Awareness & Joint Action) Project Advised on project development (see further funding). Joined inception and co-design workshops and planning meetings held on 7th and 8th February 2019 - contributions include advising on forecast products for Nairobi county, drawing from initial ForPAc work reviewing and skill assessing these, facilitating input from the key stakeholder groups into the design of city-wide and settlement level pilot weather and climate information services. |
Impact | ForPac facilitated design and execution of Daraja pilot forecast dissemination for flood risk in informal settlements in nairobi . Ensured appropriate forecast products |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Collaboration with WeltHungerHilfe |
Organisation | WeltHungerHilfe |
Country | Germany |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | WeltHungerHilfe. DRiSL are working with WHH to co-produce improved design of the Drought Finance Facility (DFF) for Madagascar from 2020 under project ForPAc and INFORM working with WHH in kenya |
Collaborator Contribution | WeltHungerHilfe. DRiSL are working with WHH to co-produce improved design of the Drought Finance Facility (DFF) for Madagascar |
Impact | WeltHungerHilfe. DRiSL are working with WHH to co-produce improved design of the Drought Finance Facility (DFF) for Madagascar |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Decision support for international organisations |
Organisation | International Committee of the Red Cross |
Department | Kenya Red Cross Society |
Country | Kenya |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa. |
Collaborator Contribution | Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought. |
Impact | Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Decision support for international organisations |
Organisation | World Food Programme (Italy, Sudan, Senegal) |
Country | Italy |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | We have provided international organisations , including the Red Cross and World Food Programme with impact relevant forecasts, which have enabled them to release funds during droughts in Africa. |
Collaborator Contribution | Our partners have provided a 'route to impact' for our research through their core activities of enabling poor farmers to weather drought. |
Impact | Provision of impact relevant forecasts has facilitated the release of WFP funds in Zambia, as part of the R4 insurance programme Soil moisture forecasts developed in these research projects have informed the development of early action protocols by the Red Cross |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | GCRF African SWIFT project - update on collaboration |
Organisation | National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | This partnership led to a joint capacity building workshop in the UK - named S2S Sub Seasonal prediction Training Workshop, which was held in Reading in February 2020. Two members of staff from the ForPAc team working at the Kenya Met Depratment were able to attend the training learning new coding languages and techniques. This helps to further build capacity at KMD to transfer the production of new forecast products developed through ForPAc. |
Collaborator Contribution | The Africa SWIFT team coordinated and led the workshop with input from ForPAc team on inception, and ForPAc PI attended one day of training. ForPAc funded the attendance of our 2 members of staff. |
Impact | S2S Sub Seasonal prediction Training Workshop |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | GCRF African SWIFT project testbed design |
Organisation | University of Leeds |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | ForPAc (KMD, met office, ICPAC) are working with the GCRF project SWIFT (https://africanswift.org/) to provide a test application of basin scale flood forecasting in Kenya, for the new high resolution convection permitting ensemble weather forecasts from SWIFT using the the UK Met Office model. ForPAc partner KMD are directly involved in SWIFT and ForPAc staff are helping ensure project alignment. |
Collaborator Contribution | As above. |
Impact | Forthcoming. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Red Cross - DREF & IARP (Innovative Approaches in Risk Preparedness) Project |
Organisation | International Committee of the Red Cross |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | Support Kenya Red Cross to apply for anticipatory funding from IFRC DREF FbF window by providing products to be used in the group's meetings and will contribute to IARP's trigger working group to set trigger thresholds for action on forecasts. Contribute forecast evaluations and in trigger methodology workshops. |
Collaborator Contribution | Red Cross DREF - ForPAc has contributed to the Red Cross trigger methodology guide & is included in the acknowledgements accordingly - http://fbf.drk.de/fileadmin/user_upload/FbF_Manual_-_A_guide_to_trigger_methodology.pdf |
Impact | Forthcoming. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Urban ARK collaboration |
Organisation | King's College London |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We have linked with KCL's Urban ARK research project, which is a separate DfID / ESRC project led by the ForPAc KCL PI. Through Urban Ark we have linked with their Nairobi network to hold a stakeholder engagement day for urban flooding in Nairobi. |
Collaborator Contribution | ForPAc research partners followed up with proposed stakeholders to build a network around the issue of urban flooding, and will continue to engage with these partners to help inform our research. |
Impact | Interdisciplinary collaboration between urban resilience expertise at KCL, local forecasters and data in partnership with the Kenyan Meteorological Department (KMD) through ForPAc and local data users such as local council representatives and the water board. Outcomes include a stakeholder engagement workshop to be followed with further research outputs and engagement. In 2018 / 2019 ForPAc coordination ensured Urban ARK are engaged with newly formed Nairobi County Disaster Management and Coordination Officer & planning process. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | WISER W2SIP Project |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | ForPAc postdoc work on model evaluation for optimal model forecasting. ForPAc PIO invited to serve as external member of W2SIP TAC. |
Collaborator Contribution | W2SIP staff supported with model evaluation & presentation at Technical Advisory committee. |
Impact | Led to discussion at a W2SIP supported 'Technical Advisory Committee'. The W2SIP-Technical Advisory Comittee meeting suggested the use all models to form ensemble forecasting system based on their weights(according to skill strengths) based on recent ForPAc-led work on skill evaluation, with the potential for significant changes to the predominant models used at ICPAC and other regional climate centres. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | WISER project 'Scoping and Design for Taking Forecast-Based Early Action to Scale' |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Intellectual / authorship contributions. |
Collaborator Contribution | Red Cross Climate Centre - also intellectual / authorship contributions. |
Impact | This collaboration has resulted in one report: Wilkinson, E., Weingärtner, L., Choularton, R., Bailey, M., Todd, M., Kniveton, D., & Cabot Venton, C. (2018). Forecasting hazards, averting disasters: Implementing forecast-based early action at scale. Overseas Development Institute (ODI). |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | WMO WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal-Seasonal prediction (S2) pilot |
Organisation | World Meteorological Organization |
Department | WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal-Seasonal prediction |
Country | Switzerland |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Technical inputs. |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical inputs. |
Impact | Proposal submitted to undertake, in real-time, application of sub-seasonal forecasts for flood and drought early warning and early action in Kenya. |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | Adaptation Futures Conference, Cape Town, June 2018. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Adaptation Futures Conference, Cape Town, June 2018. Presentations to 'Showcasing and learning from Forecast-based Financing case studies' session. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Berlin Dialogue Platform |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The ForPAc project manager attended a 'Dialogue Platform' event on Forecast Based Financing organized by German Red Cross, in close cooperation with IFRC, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and WFP. The purpose was for ForPAc to be engaged with an event where collective knowledge and experience in science, policy and practice brings about innovative thinking and enhanced cooperation among the different actors in FbF. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.drk.de/fileadmin/user_upload/FBF/ReportBerlinDP17_final.pdf |
Description | Capacity building workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We held a three-week virtual workshop to build the capacity of professional meteorologists in Africa to use TAMSAT drought monitoring products. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Fathum Project Inception Workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | ForPAc PI & project manager attended the inception workshop for the 'Fathum' project (funded under the same NERC programme Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience; SHEAR). A short presentation about ForPAc was given and we shared some of the similarities and differences between the project, to establish where we could work together as well as learn from each others' projects. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/fathum/2017/08/16/hello-world/ |
Description | ForPAc 'Ignite' Presentation FbF Global Dialogue Platform Berlin October 2019 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation entitled Where's the F in FbF?' -The talk focused on work done by the project on forecast improvement, since this was notably missing in most discussion at the platform. Firstly, the skill of seasonal forecasts from global models has been evaluated over the region. The result indicates there is higher predictability in the October-November-December (OND) than in the March-April-May (MAM) season. The outcome of the skill analysis is informing changes in the GHACOF process; making it the seasonal forecasting process objective and guiding the selection of models to be used. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ForPAc 2019 October- December season Pilot workshops |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | During our pilot of prototype forecast products in our drought case study, Kitui county we organised the following workshops. - Kitui County Drought management stakeholders workshop 31st July and 1st August 2019 to introduce the early OND 2019 Forecast-Tercile and SPI optimized ForPAc forecast. - Kitui County Drought management stakeholders workshop 26th September, 2019 to introduce ForPAc's optimized OND 2019 Forecast-Tercile and SPI, Hits and misses for various thresholds of SPI <-0.09 and SPI<-0.98, TAMSAT alert products and review actions developed with the early OND forecast in July. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ForPAc Drought case study stakeholder workshop event , climate training, Kitui County 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country Climate Training workshop (August). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | ForPAc Drought case study stakeholder workshop event Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis Aug 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Kenya Drought Early Warning System engagement - series of workshops in 2018 focussing on Kitui country including a Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis (July) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | ForPAc Nairobi city flood case study stakeholder workshop event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a 2nd Stakeholder meeting in Nairobi in June 2018 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | ForPAc Nairobi city flood case study stakeholder workshop event |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Nairobi flood case study work: ForPAc has held a series of workshops, most recently a tailored Climate training workshop in Nairobi in February 2019. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ForPAc News Article in Business Daily |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | A detailed article about the ForPAc project and the challenges of seasonal forecasts in Kenya. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Weathermen-in-race-to-improve-their-forecasts/539546-422319... |
Description | ForPAc News Article in Nation Daily |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | An article about the ForPAc project was picked up by the main national Kenyan newspaper, the Nation Daily, online and in print. We think this has helped to raise awareness about drought forecasting and the ForPAc project in Kenya. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Major-boost-for-drought--flood-forecasting-efforts/1056-4113638-wj6et8... |
Description | ForPAc Press Reslease |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | ForPAc press release on the University of Sussex news page. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.sussex.ac.uk/broadcast/read/41802 |
Description | ForPAc Urban Flooding Stakeholder Day |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The urban flood workshop provided the opportunity to further develop partnerships on this issue, linking Urban Ark partners including the Nairobi Risk Partnership, the Kounkuey Design Initiative and city county officials with ForPAc partners including the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), 3Di flood mapping and International Water Stewardship Programme representatives. It helped us to better understand the root causes of urban flooding issues in Nairobi; understand the state of knowledge and existing early warning systems and engage with the key partners required to deliver on this system. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/db9d21_5af547bdaaec48218757f5eb30476d09.pdf |
Description | ForPAc key note on 'Towards a more Anticipatory Drought Early Warning Systems' in one of the side events; Early Warning Framework for Early Action,at GHACOF 53 27th-29thJanuary, 2020. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | The event brought together DRM practitioners, meteorological services, key Sectors and Communicators. The event aimed to develop early warning frameworks for different hazards |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ForPAc team members invited into Kenya Red Cross Early Action Protocol Technical Work Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | ForPAc team members invited into Kenya Red Cross Early Action Protocol Technical Work Group |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
Description | Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum GHACOF 51, February 2019, Entebbe, Ugand |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | ForPAc presented about 'ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction.' ForPAc is included in the acknowledgements of the events. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, GHACOF 50, August 2018, Kigali |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | ForPAc presented about 'ForPAC role over East Africa in good science practices that can trigger early action and risks reduction.' ForPAc is included in the acknowledgements of the events. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Greater Horn of Africa Regional Outlook Forum (GHACOF) 48 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A ForPAc stall and event was hosted at the 48th Greater Horn of Africa Regional Outlook Forum (GHACOF) event held in Mombasa. ForPAc research team members presented a poster about the project to disseminate knowledge and also conducted surveys on forecast information requirements with policymakers and forecasters present at the event. ForPAc was included in the GHACOF 48 statement as a contributor. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.icpac.net/wp-content/uploads/GHACOF48_Statement.pdf |
Description | International workshop on TAMSAT-ALERT climate services for the insurance industry |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | Attendees at the workshop included the major players in African drought insurance and climate services, from the World Food Organisation (R4), Pula, Risk Shield, Blue Marble, CIMMYT, One Acre Fund , the Ghana Meteorological Service and the Africa Risk Capacity. The chosen organisations were a mix of international, national and third sector organisations. This is the full list of attendees: Emily Black (overall PI) University of Reading Rahel Diro (co-PI, participatory lead) IRI (Columbia) Helen Greatrex (co-PI) IRI (Columbia) Federica Carfagna ARC Tom Philp Blue Marble/XLCatlin Thabbie Chilongo Center for Agricultural Research Development (CARD) - LUANAR Peter Craufurd CIMMYT Michael Tanu Ghana meteorological service Patrick Lamptey Ghana meteorological service Eric Asuman Ghana meteorological service Dan Osgood IRI (Columbia) Markus Enekel IRI (Columbia) Bristol Powell IRI (Columbia) Melody Braun IRI (Columbia) Lisette Braman IRI (Columbia) Step Aston One Acre Fund Steven Kogo PULA Advisors Rose Goslinga PULA Advisors Kalie Gold PULA Advisors Agrotosh Mookerjee Risk Shield Ross Maidment University of Reading Matthew Young University of Reading Katie Cooper University of Reading Daniela Cuellar WFP/R4 Hussein Madih WFP/R4 Jyothi Bylappa Maralenhalli WFP/R4 William Dick WFP/R4 Mathieu Dubreuil WFP/R4 At the workshop we demonstrated the new TAMSAT-ALERT tools and explored applications. The outcomes were: - Progress towards applying the TAMSAT-ALERT for supporting planting date for >500,000 farmers (CIMMYT and 1AF) - TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasting services for >1M Zambian farmers (Risk Shield) - Objective rainy season identification code passed to Pula Consultants (reaching >500,000 farmers) (Pula) - Inclusion of TAMSAT data in the Africa Risk Capacity portal (national level forecast based finance for most of Africa) (ARC) - New research projects agreed with Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) The workshop will thus hugely expand the ODA impact of the TAMSAT-ALERT system developed during TAMSAT-ALERT and SatWIN-ALERT. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | NCAS Workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Scientific presentation at NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science) multi-hazard early-warning workshop focussing on the 'Science of S2S prediction in ForPAc project'. Presenting headlines results such as the finding of strong predictability of seasonal rainfall totals for the East Africa short rains OND, pertinent questions from expert audience. Also early opportunity to 'spread word' about ForPAc project. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | NORCAP Early Warning - Early Action meeting at ICPAC, Nairobi, November 2018. Leading Sessions 'Forecast based early warning' & 'Innovative Approaches & Solutions to FBEA & Early Warning'. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | NORCAP Early Warning - Early Action meeting at ICPAC, Nairobi, November 2018. Leading Sessions 'Forecast based early warning' & 'Innovative Approaches & Solutions to FBEA & Early Warning'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Nairobi County Flood management stakeholder workshops |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Nairobi County Flood management stakeholders learning event 14th January, 2020. The stakeholders agreed there is need to synergise all the projects working in Nairobi County Nairobi County flood management stakeholders workshop 13thFebruary, 2020Stakeholders were sensitized on various S2S product formats and they voted for the most useful, using prototype S2S forecast products for Nairobi Count. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Presentation at Red Cross Africa Anticipatory Action Dialogue Platform (DP) October 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Project team members contributed to expert panel discussion during to 3rd Africa Dialogue Platform on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://live.anticipation-hub.org/africa-dialogue-platform/live |
Description | Presentation at the Red Cross Global Dialogue Platform Dec 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | lessons from projects ForPAc and DRiSL shared via the DP event |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://live.anticipation-hub.org/?strytlpage=74 |
Description | Presentations at Red Cross Africa FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Nairobi March 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Red Cross Africa FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Nairobi March 2018 Nairobi Platform Leading sessions: 'Enlightening Talks' session & 'Research on FbF' https://www.forecast-based-financing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Report_DP18Nairobi.pdf Presented FbA Scoping study report (Todd, Kniveton co-authors) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
URL | https://www.forecast-based-financing.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Report_DP18Nairobi.pdf |
Description | Red Cross Global FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Berlin, October 2018 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Red Cross Global FbA Dialogue Platform Events, Berlin, October 2018 Berlin 2018 Leading Sessions: SHEAR Research Outputs |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | SHEAR annual meeting, September 2018, Brighton |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentations at SHEAR annual meeting, September 2018, Brighton |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | TAMSAT user forum |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | We held a user forum for those engaged in using satellite-based data and products for climate services in Africa. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Understanding Risk Conference, Mexico City, May 2018. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | ForPAc Early Career Researcher participating in 'Interdisciplinary Risk Communication Pressure Cooker' challenge event. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |