The, statistically-Unsteady, Next generation Sediment Transport model for Environmental flows

The transport of sediment by environmental flows shapes the world around us. Our ability to predict sediment transport is therefore key to a range of disciplines and sectors, and is critical to water, energy and food security. For example, accurate sediment transport prediction is key in the management of natural environments, screening and mitigation of geohazard risks, design and operation of offshore windfarms and exploitation of natural resources. Research in these areas directly addresses key UK and global challenges, including clean and secure energy, geohazard resilience and ecosystem management in changing natural and societal environments.

Despite its clear importance, state-of-the-art predictive sediment transport models are still based on a century-old paradigm, recognised as flawed, and of limited applicability, even when first proposed. Therefore, our current ability to predict sediment transport in real-world environments is limited. Predicting sediment transport is dependent on understanding how much material is kept aloft, suspended in flowing water. Current models of sediment suspension are inaccurate, dependent on a model of mixing of slowly-settling particles, over vanishingly small length-scales, by random fluid motion (turbulence). However, recognised even when first developed, these models are based on flawed assumptions of the role and scale of turbulence in real-world flows. Moreover, recent research spanning earth sciences and mathematics highlights that chaotic, turbulent fluid motion is not always entirely random. Under many conditions coherent structures can develop, and in atmospheric flows it has been shown that coherent structures result in self-organisation. The emergence of self-organisation from chaos is fascinating, operating against preconceived notions of increasing entropy, and hinting at higher levels of physical complexity than is currently understood.

Building on my multidisciplinary background, covering mathematics and earth sciences, and collaborating with international experts in academia and industry, I will undertake the first study of the development of coherent structures and self-organisation in sediment-laden environmental flows. To achieve this, this Fellowship aims to integrate recent developments in theoretical and empirical research of turbulent flows - with the objective of making a step-change in the way in which sediment suspensions are modelled. Such integrated research is not only crucial, but it is also timely, only now possible due to scientific and technological advances made in the past decade. Critical to this is University of Hull commitment to directly support development of a globally unique stratified flow facility for studying suspended sediment transport. Moreover, I will advance the Fellowship research to study real-world systems, where the composition of sediment suspensions vary, enabling impact across the applied sciences. Working with international collaborators, I will apply these sediment transport models to help constrain the magnitude and frequency of geohazard risk posed by environmental flows.

Synergistic to the Fellowship 2xPhDs , funded by the University of Hull, will facilitate impact as students will apply Fellowship research to address challenges in energy security, geohazard resilience and ecosystem management. Direct engagement with academic, industrial and government collaborators will maximise impact throughout the Fellowship. Collaboration will enable me to naturally develop a Centre for Environmental Fluid Dynamics at the University of Hull, which I will use to develop and broaden Fellowship research studying the impact of the built environment, e.g. offshore windfarms, on environmental flows and the mechanics of high-concentration flows. Thus, this Fellowship, and subsequent research, will enable me to address current and future societal challenges in earth surface science as a research leader in environmental fluid dynamics.

The Fellowship delivers fundamental research that is directly applicable to current and future needs of international industry and government. Key examples of industry and government agencies that are beneficiaries of advanced sediment-transport models, and are thus integrated into this Fellowship are:

i) the offshore wind (OSW) renewable energy industry, including direct Fellowship partners JDR Cables Ltd and the ORE-Catapult. The OSW industry will benefit from new tools to inform sediment-transport impact on, and thus necessary investment in, design, development and deployment of, OSW infrastructure. This will facilitate more efficient and cost-effective exploitation of renewable resources, enabling release of further allocations of seafloor for OSW development and addressing operational problems surrounding scour and infrastructure wear. Thus, research will enable global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; addressing UN global goals to deliver sustainable energy, economic growth, climate change and sustainable use of marine resources.

ii) companies in the energy industry, including direct Fellowship partner ExxonMobil, where improved sediment-transport models are essential for understanding sedimentary geology and thus the exploration and exploitation of natural resources found in sedimentary deposits needed for global energy security during transition to clean power;

iii) public and private sector environmental consultants responsible for managing response of natural ecosystems to climate and societal change, including direct Fellowship partners: the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS) and HR Wallingford. Here environmental consultants will benefit from enhanced predictions of sediment, nutrient and pollutant (including microplastics) dispersal in waterways and marine environments. This addresses UN global goals to promote sustainable agriculture and management of water resources for protection and restoration of ecosystems and biodiversity.

iv) National government agencies and consultants, including direct Fellowship partners the Environment Agency, CEFAS, British Geological Survey and HR Wallingford, who require tools to screen and mitigate the increasing risk of flooding, due to changing land use and siltation of waterways, and coastal erosion, due to the increasing exploitation of the marine zone (with future research studying the impact of OSW). At national and international level this matches UN global goals for resilient cities and infrastructure.

v) International government agencies, and ultimately the insurance industry, including direct Fellowship partners the (UK) National Oceanography Centre and the Geological Survey of Japan. Here collaborative application of sediment transport models will improve tools predicting the frequency and potential impact of natural hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes) recorded in the deposits of environmental flows created. This will enable assessment of global risks to large population centers and infrastructure, such as seafloor telecommunication cables; addressing UN global goals for sustainable human settlements and resilient economic growth.

The University of Hull will provide fully funded support via a PhD cluster that I will lead, based on my career experiences to date and training provided by the University of Hull. The PhD research cluster will utilize the fundamental research that I develop in the Fellowship and apply to it to specific problems working closely with industry and government agencies to maximize impact. In the medium term this Fellowship will enable me to lead further research into the impact of OSW in stratified and sediment-laden marine environments. The long-term legacy of the Fellowship will be to position myself as a global leader in environmental fluid dynamics, advocating multidisciplinary research and collaboration as the cornerstone for advances across science and industry.