Mosquitoes populations modelling for early warning system and rapid response public by health authorities correlating climate, weather and spatial-tem
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Institute for Risk and Disaster Reductio
Abstract
As a result of the recent climate changes, mosquito-borne diseases (like Zika, dengue) are becoming endemic not only in sub-tropical regions of Africa and Latin America but in other parts of the world. This project will combine public health, mobile technology and climate modelling to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on water providing breeding habitats for mosquitoes in Northeast Brazil. We aim to develop a series of spatial-temporal models to predict the burden of mosquito populations by deploying cutting-edge mobile and internet of things (IoT) technology leveraging multiple data sources from newly acquired climate, weather, mosquito surveillance, water and sanitation and socioeconomic data. This technology will include the use of mobile surveillance apps using gamification and citizen science technology co-developed with local stakeholders for reporting locations of water breeding points in Brazil. We will develop a data-driven early warning system to predict changes in occurrence and abundance of mosquito breeding points. This real-time system will alert public health and environmental authorities to mobilise community engagement for the prevention and rapid response to vector outbreaks. We will also develop educational content for public and community stakeholders to increase awareness of mosquito breeding habitats and water management. With public health stakeholders (WHO and Recife City Hall), we will co-develop community engagement strategies and evidence-based policies to improve standing water management and treatment. Most importantly, building on existing partnerships in the provinces in Northeast Brazil, where mosquito-borne diseases are endemic, we will work with academics and local stakeholder partners from Recife, Olinda and Campina Grande, and have a unique access to mosquito surveillance data to calibrate our predictive models in real-time via mobile app and IoT devices. Access to real-time datasets will not only provide a unique method for calibrating the predictive modelling results ? but also will put us in a position to evaluate the entire early-warning decision-support dashboard system with the authorities during their standard daily operations to ensure outstanding real-world impact on vector surveillance and public health policy. It is absolutely unique for a research project to have the opportunity to validate the research in the timeframe of the project while directly translating the results to public health authorities, policy makers, WHO, and stakeholders in Brazil, Turkey and other countries where vector-borne disease are soon to become endemic.
Planned Impact
The research will have broader impact beyond the scope of academia. The primary beneficiaries of the project will be the Brazilian environmental health agents and fieldworkers involved with both data collection and surveillance of mosquitoes during and post-project. These key players are the pillars of the Brazilian public health system, both for their role as a means to give people access to the primary health care level, dealing with low-complexity disease treatments, as well as applying strategies for epidemic and entomologic vector control in endemic areas. They are also the individuals who have acquired local ground knowledge of the areas they routinely work at, as well as know the people they help in events of mosquito-borne disease outbreak in order to respond rapidly. Their training will enhance their knowledge on controlling mosquito-borne disease outbreaks such as Zika and Dengue viruses for instance and, in turn, will empower them through the integration of mobile technology in their control strategies. The second beneficiaries are the public health experts and local as well as national governments who will have access to geographical information in a form of GIS Dashboard which will show the results to users in real-time to improve strategies to vector control as well as to plan rapid and pre- emptive responses accordingly in order to prevent such outcomes in vulnerable communities.
Brazilian public health officials and stakeholders will benefit - engaging key stakeholders is essential and so this project will build on its existing and fruitful collaboration with a network of stakeholders and beneficiaries. Firstly, we work with the public health experts of the municipal health secretaries of Recife, Campina Grande, and Olinda, and the health secretary of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. The researchers of the Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil, will work with serious games and gamification design, participatory game design, geographic information systems, and epidemics. The researchers of UK, Turkey and Sao Paulo have close links with surveillance and early working experts that work with Brazilian Ministry of Health and are in collaboration with WHO PAHO experts on Zika and vector disease management and the national IHR focal point in Brazil. These parties will be invited to join the Advisory Board for the project to provide senior medical expertise, policy advice at regional and national level in Brazil and international level priority settings and future network of collaborators for follow-up initiatives. End users who are the community health and environmental fieldworkers will be involved as the key stakeholder group throughout the project from prioritise the settings, co-authoring the apps, testing and evaluation and its launch.
As part of this project's agenda for impact in terms of wider outreach and dissemination to stakeholders - the consortium will regularly updated portal (or website) for posting news and resources. The results importantly will be fed back and discussed with stakeholders at district, provincial and national level in the North East of Brazil through meetings and workshops in order to inform policy and future plans for mosquito and vector control. On a national level - in this context, the key stakeholder system is the Government of Brazil and it environmental and public health ministries. Secondary stakeholders include bilateral and multilaterals (WHO, UNICEF, WFP), global health academic champions, and international NGOs. At a district and community level - we have already taking steps to make arrangements for formal and informal meetings, as well as summer schools with district level stakeholders and community health workers in Sao Paulo, Recife, Campina Grande and Olinda. At district level, involvement of the District Public Health Offices in the study areas (i.e. Recife, Campina Grande & Olinda) will be essential for the project's implementation
Brazilian public health officials and stakeholders will benefit - engaging key stakeholders is essential and so this project will build on its existing and fruitful collaboration with a network of stakeholders and beneficiaries. Firstly, we work with the public health experts of the municipal health secretaries of Recife, Campina Grande, and Olinda, and the health secretary of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. The researchers of the Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil, will work with serious games and gamification design, participatory game design, geographic information systems, and epidemics. The researchers of UK, Turkey and Sao Paulo have close links with surveillance and early working experts that work with Brazilian Ministry of Health and are in collaboration with WHO PAHO experts on Zika and vector disease management and the national IHR focal point in Brazil. These parties will be invited to join the Advisory Board for the project to provide senior medical expertise, policy advice at regional and national level in Brazil and international level priority settings and future network of collaborators for follow-up initiatives. End users who are the community health and environmental fieldworkers will be involved as the key stakeholder group throughout the project from prioritise the settings, co-authoring the apps, testing and evaluation and its launch.
As part of this project's agenda for impact in terms of wider outreach and dissemination to stakeholders - the consortium will regularly updated portal (or website) for posting news and resources. The results importantly will be fed back and discussed with stakeholders at district, provincial and national level in the North East of Brazil through meetings and workshops in order to inform policy and future plans for mosquito and vector control. On a national level - in this context, the key stakeholder system is the Government of Brazil and it environmental and public health ministries. Secondary stakeholders include bilateral and multilaterals (WHO, UNICEF, WFP), global health academic champions, and international NGOs. At a district and community level - we have already taking steps to make arrangements for formal and informal meetings, as well as summer schools with district level stakeholders and community health workers in Sao Paulo, Recife, Campina Grande and Olinda. At district level, involvement of the District Public Health Offices in the study areas (i.e. Recife, Campina Grande & Olinda) will be essential for the project's implementation
Organisations
Publications
Aldosery A
(2021)
MEWAR: Development of a Cross-Platform Mobile Application and Web Dashboard System for Real-Time Mosquito Surveillance in Northeast Brazil.
in Frontiers in public health
Da Silva C
(2022)
Spatiotemporal forecasting for dengue, chikungunya fever and Zika using machine learning and artificial expert committees based on meta-heuristics
in Research on Biomedical Engineering
Da Silva CC
(2021)
Covid-19 Dynamic Monitoring and Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Forecasting.
in Frontiers in public health
Li L
(2021)
The Response of Governments and Public Health Agencies to COVID-19 Pandemics on Social Media: A Multi-Country Analysis of Twitter Discourse.
in Frontiers in public health
Lima C
(2022)
Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning: A Systematic Review
in Frontiers in Public Health
Description | mobile app for healthcare agents for surveillance of mosquitos Despite the challenges, we were able to accomplish the following: 1.) We piloted water and environmental sanitation survey for mosquito occupancy in Recife (i.e., neighbourhood called 'Nova Descoberta') in June 2022. The results of the survey provided some insight into household-level water storage practices, for instance, 100% of participants stated that they had a water tank in their house, 30.4% of which did not have a lid serving as reservoir mosquito breeding which we had treat. The survey also highlighted resident's awareness of mosquito presence in the vicinity of their households, with 100% of participants stating they had observed mosquitos in open drainage channels and 95.7% observing mosquitoes in stagnant ponds; 2.) A construction and scalability of a new IoT systems for collating environmental parameters for monitoring mosquito abundance. This device is now being implemented beyond the context of Brazil, for now, and is being utilised in Madeira (Portugal); and 3.) MEWAR mobile phone application has been piloted to affect for the enabling of instantaneous digitalisation of household-level survey data for use in Early Warning Signalling. The development of the application to be cross-platformed with a web dashboard is still underway. Nevertheless, this is still in-progress which is co-developed with CHWs and managers through a series of workshops in Recife and Campina Grande. Further. a pilot app and ioT sents were deployed in Madeira and tested since 2022 providing real-time data for surveillance and research. |
Exploitation Route | We believe that the outcomes of this research would be of interest to those particularly domain of vector-borne diseases and vector-related infestation, especially to those who reside in areas (e.g., Global South) where primary data remains elusive and out-of-reach due to data sparsity. It will pique the interest of those in sector of electronics concerned with app development and IoT for surveillance and monitoring of mosquito populations. Further contacts in other parts of Brazil are being created to carry out the work in new geographical areas. |
Sectors | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Electronics Environment Healthcare Other |
Description | Despite the challenges, we were able to accomplish the following: 1.) We piloted water and environmental sanitation survey for mosquito occupancy in Recife (i.e., neighbourhood called 'Nova Descoberta') in June 2022. The results of the survey provided some insight into household-level water storage practices, for instance, 100% of participants stated that they had a water tank in their house, 30.4% of which did not have a lid serving as reservoir mosquito breeding which we had treat. The survey also highlighted resident's awareness of mosquito presence in the vicinity of their households, with 100% of participants stating they had observed mosquitos in open drainage channels and 95.7% observing mosquitoes in stagnant ponds; 2.) A construction of a new IoT systems for collating environmental parameters for monitoring mosquito abundance. This device is now being implemented beyond the context of Brazil, for now, and is being utilised in Madeira (Portugal); and 3.) MEWAR mobile phone application has been piloted to some affect for the enabling of instantaneous digitalisation of household-level survey data for use in Early Warning Signalling. The development of the application to be cross-platformed with a web dashboard is still underway. Nevertheless, this is still in-progress which is co-developed with CHWs and managers through a series of workshops in Recife and Campina Grande. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Environment,Healthcare,Other |
Impact Types | Societal |
Description | Mosquito population modelling for early warning system and rapid response by health authorities using mobile surveillance data |
Amount | £507,684 (GBP) |
Organisation | United Kingdom Research and Innovation |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 05/2020 |
End | 12/2022 |
Description | deployment of zika app |
Amount | £99,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2018 |
End | 03/2020 |
Title | mapping of mosquito data in Recife and Campina Grande |
Description | data from these two cities were mapped to showcase the occurrence of mosquitoes in urban locations |
Type Of Material | Data analysis technique |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | this will be used for calibrating our prediction model |
Description | Interactive Technologies Institute LARSyS |
Organisation | University of Lisbon |
Department | Instituto Superior Tecnico |
Country | Portugal |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Provided field support and aided in the construction of a new and scalable IoT system used for collating environmental parameters for monitoring mosquito abundance. This device is now being implemented in Madeira (Portugal) |
Collaborator Contribution | Technical and fieldwork support |
Impact | 1.) 18 new IoT devices have been constructed; 2.) Conference proceedings titled: Mosquito Ovitraps IoT Sensing System (MOISS): Internet of Things-based System for Continuous, Real-Time and Autonomous Environment Monitoring. Its featured in IEEE 8th World Forum on Internet of Things 26 October-11 November 2022 in Yokohama, Japan (https://wfiot2022.iot.ieee.org/accepted_paper_technical/) |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | LSHTM and LIKA workshops |
Organisation | Federal Rural University of Pernambuco |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I established a collaboration and held a workshop in London with our Brazilian partners and colleagues working on zika from LSHTM and also with colleagues from LIKA lab in Recife, Brazil |
Collaborator Contribution | holding workshop in Brazil to me LIKA colleagues and active participation to workshop in London |
Impact | not yet |
Start Year | 2018 |
Description | LSHTM and LIKA workshops |
Organisation | London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I established a collaboration and held a workshop in London with our Brazilian partners and colleagues working on zika from LSHTM and also with colleagues from LIKA lab in Recife, Brazil |
Collaborator Contribution | holding workshop in Brazil to me LIKA colleagues and active participation to workshop in London |
Impact | not yet |
Start Year | 2018 |
Title | IoT sensors |
Description | ioT sensors for water and weather monitoring |
Type Of Technology | Detection Devices |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | real-time monitoring environmental conditions for predicting mosquitoes hotspots |
Title | Webtool/Application for mosquito surveillance |
Description | SW to support environmental agents and their mangers in monitoring mosquito populations |
Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | digitization of paper pased process |
Description | 4-day external engagement activities in Maderia: Finding Mosquitoes |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Visit to Madeira (Portugal) to expand MEWAR related activities: 1.) Day 1: focused on setting up and showcasing the mosquito ovitrap IOT-based System pilot system; and 2.) Day 2: focused on introducing the Mosquito Surveillance App to partners in Madeira; 3.) Day 3: Mosquito Ovitrap IOT-based System (MOISS) Large Deployment. and 4.) Day 4: delivery and piloting a Madeira Mosquito Surveillance App Workshop |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021,2022,2023 |
URL | https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/irdr/2022/12/12/finding-mosquitoes/ |
Description | MEWAR Team meeting (London, UK) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | International team meeting to assess overall progress - the occasion gave all team members the opportunity to disseminate current findings an international workshop (see engagement activities: dPHE 3rd Anniversary Workshop: One Health in the era of Global Warming and URL) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDdHuuY8B5M |
Description | MEWAR team meeting in Brazil (Campina Grande & Recife) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Team meeting to discuss overall progress of data collection effort regards MEWAR app and water & sanitation survey. The occasion was followed by a series of workshop with key participants invited to hear results. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://twitter.com/PattyKostkova/status/1590673026181345280 |
Description | UCL-ZIKA Mapathon: Mapping of residential areas for mosquito surveillance in Campina Grande |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | In January 2020 - in collaboration UCL Centre for Analytics and Spatial Analysis (CASA) and the British Red Cross, we delivered a GIS workshop to generate digital surveillance maps for one of the study sites at Campina Grande. This was to also support the mapping and surveillance effort in such areas as the they currently rely on scanned maps but have no way of quantifying the spatial distribution of residential areas infested with mosquitoes. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/irdr/2020/02/25/ucl-zika-mapathon-mapping-of-residential-areas-for-mosquito-... |
Description | dPHE 3rd Anniversary Workshop: One Health in the era of Global Warming |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Workshop showcased all project related research and activities through a series on presentation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDdHuuY8B5M |
Description | media coverage and TV interview in Madeira |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | keynote given at a workshop with minister of Heath, Madeire followed by a media coverage and TV interview |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023 |
Description | testing mobile app and ioT set with agents in Brazil |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 20-30 agents attended a testing and deployment activities in Brazil |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022,2023 |