TerraFIRMA: Future Impacts Risks and Mitigation Actions
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: National Centre for Atmospheric Science
Abstract
TerraFIRMA aims to increase our understanding of the risks and impacts associated with global climate change. It also will assess a number of leading mitigation options aimed at limiting the magnitude of future climate change. It will do this by developing and then applying advanced models of the coupled Earth system, meaning computer-mathematical models for the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice and land ice, encompassing relevant physical, chemical and biological processes and process interactions. These models are run for the past, to evaluate their accuracy in simulating key Earth system phenomena, including any trends in variables, such as in surface air temperature. The models are then run into the future using a range of assumed future emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, as well as aerosols and estimates of future land use.
In TerraFIRMA we will design future emissions that see global warming exceed some of the key international policy targets, such as 2 degreeC warmer than pre-industrial values, rising to 3C, before then cooling back down to the 2C level at some later date. This cooling assumes widespread deployment of technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Using these, so-called overshoot scenarios, we will investigate the risk for rapid changes in three features of the Earth system; Antarctic ice sheets that may impact global sea-level rise, marine ecosystems, and fisheries and tropical forests, such as the Amazon. We aim to determine the risk for rapid change in these phenomena as the climate warms and whether such rapid changes if triggered after a certain amount of warming, are reversible if the climate is cooled back below a given target. Using the same experiments we will also assess the impact of global warming exceeding key targets on the following phenomena that all impact human activities and well-being; (i) water resources and water availability, (ii) air pollution, (iii) wildfires, (iv) marine ecosystems and fisheries and (v) global sea-level rise. For the first four of these impacts, we concentrate on three primary geographical areas: (a) sub-Saharan Africa, (b) the South Asian monsoon region, covering both land and adjacent oceans, and (c) the North-East Atlantic and the UK.
In addition to analyzing the overshoot scenarios, we will also design a set of model experiments to investigate the efficacy of two widely discussed options for limiting (mitigating) future climate change. The first action is to rapidly reduce the emission of non-CO2 gases known as Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCFs). Unlike carbon dioxide, which has a lifetime of hundreds of years in the atmosphere, NTCFs (such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and aerosols) have atmospheric lifetimes ranging from days to a decade. Hence, large emission reductions in these gases can impact the amount of climate warming quite rapidly (i.e. in the near term). We will design experiments to assess the efficacy of emission reductions in gases such as methane to see whether they can help reduce near-term climate change and be applied in addition to carbon dioxide emission reductions that have a longer-term impact on warming. The second action is the widespread planting of trees (afforestation), potentially combined with direct Carbon capture, so-called Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture Storage (BECCS). We will design a set of model experiments to assess the impact widespread afforestation has on atmospheric carbon dioxide (trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere when they grow), while also considering the direct impact of afforestation on the local climate where the trees are located. We aim to get a good idea of how much cooling we can expect, and on what timescale from such widespread afforestation. The mitigation experiments we design, as well as the results, will be discussed with UK government departments involved in setting UK climate policy
In TerraFIRMA we will design future emissions that see global warming exceed some of the key international policy targets, such as 2 degreeC warmer than pre-industrial values, rising to 3C, before then cooling back down to the 2C level at some later date. This cooling assumes widespread deployment of technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Using these, so-called overshoot scenarios, we will investigate the risk for rapid changes in three features of the Earth system; Antarctic ice sheets that may impact global sea-level rise, marine ecosystems, and fisheries and tropical forests, such as the Amazon. We aim to determine the risk for rapid change in these phenomena as the climate warms and whether such rapid changes if triggered after a certain amount of warming, are reversible if the climate is cooled back below a given target. Using the same experiments we will also assess the impact of global warming exceeding key targets on the following phenomena that all impact human activities and well-being; (i) water resources and water availability, (ii) air pollution, (iii) wildfires, (iv) marine ecosystems and fisheries and (v) global sea-level rise. For the first four of these impacts, we concentrate on three primary geographical areas: (a) sub-Saharan Africa, (b) the South Asian monsoon region, covering both land and adjacent oceans, and (c) the North-East Atlantic and the UK.
In addition to analyzing the overshoot scenarios, we will also design a set of model experiments to investigate the efficacy of two widely discussed options for limiting (mitigating) future climate change. The first action is to rapidly reduce the emission of non-CO2 gases known as Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCFs). Unlike carbon dioxide, which has a lifetime of hundreds of years in the atmosphere, NTCFs (such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and aerosols) have atmospheric lifetimes ranging from days to a decade. Hence, large emission reductions in these gases can impact the amount of climate warming quite rapidly (i.e. in the near term). We will design experiments to assess the efficacy of emission reductions in gases such as methane to see whether they can help reduce near-term climate change and be applied in addition to carbon dioxide emission reductions that have a longer-term impact on warming. The second action is the widespread planting of trees (afforestation), potentially combined with direct Carbon capture, so-called Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture Storage (BECCS). We will design a set of model experiments to assess the impact widespread afforestation has on atmospheric carbon dioxide (trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere when they grow), while also considering the direct impact of afforestation on the local climate where the trees are located. We aim to get a good idea of how much cooling we can expect, and on what timescale from such widespread afforestation. The mitigation experiments we design, as well as the results, will be discussed with UK government departments involved in setting UK climate policy
Publications
Ascott M
(2023)
On the application of rainfall projections from a convection-permitting climate model to lumped catchment models
in Journal of Hydrology
Balasus N
(2023)
A blended TROPOMI+GOSAT satellite data product for atmospheric methane using machine learning to correct retrieval biases
in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
De Mora L
(2023)
Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels
in Earth System Dynamics
De Mora L
(2023)
Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels
in Earth System Dynamics
Dhomse S
(2023)
Using machine learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets
in Earth System Science Data
Drinkwater A
(2023)
Atmospheric data support a multi-decadal shift in the global methane budget towards natural tropical emissions
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Gómez-Valdivia F
(2023)
Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre
in Geophysical Research Letters
Hayman G
(2024)
Forestation is not an easy fix.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Description | Contribution to the IPCC report WG2 (Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
Impact | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change. Chapter 3: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and their Services: A.Yool served as a contributing author. The key MEDUSA publications were cited 11 times. MEDUSA's benthic submodel was used as a key evidence for the future of the benthic biomass. Figure 3.21j,k,l, from the WG2 report was re-drawn from Yool et al., 2017 |
URL | https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ |
Title | MEDUSA as a component of UK ESM |
Description | MEDUSA (Model of Ecosystem Dynamics, nutrient Utilisation, Sequestration and Acidification) is developed as an "intermediate complexity" plankton ecosystem model to study the biogeochemical response, and especially that of the so-called "biological pump", to anthropogenically driven change in the World Ocean. The base currency in this model was nitrogen from which fluxes of organic carbon, including export to the deep ocean, were calculated by invoking fixed C : N ratios in phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus. However, due to anthropogenic activity, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) has significantly increased above its natural, inter-glacial background. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | MEDUSA is a component model of UK ESM and as such it directly contributes to the future climate projections within the framework of IPCC Contribution to the IPCC report WG2 (Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) Chapter 3: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and their Services: A.Yool served as a contributing author. The key MEDUSA publications were cited 11 times. MEDUSA's benthic submodel was used as a key evidence for the future of the benthic biomass. Figure 3.21j,k,l, from the WG2 report was re-drawn from Yool et al., 2017 |
URL | http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/6/1767/2013/ |
Title | UK Earth System Model |
Description | UKESM1 (Sellar 2019) is a state-of-the-art Earth system model that consists of the following component models: The physical global climate model HadGEM3-GC3.1 (Williams 2018, Kuhlbrodt 2019), itself composed of the Unified Model atmosphere, NEMO ocean model and CICE sea ice model. Atmospheric Chemistry: UKCA interactive stratospheric-tropospheric chemistry model (Morgenstern 2009, O'Connor 2014, Archibald 2019). Atmospheric aerosols: UKCA-GLOMAP-mode stratosphere-tropospheric aerosol scheme (Mann 2014, Mulcahy 2020). Ocean biogeochemistry: MEDUSA2 intermediate complexity plankton ecosystem model Yool 2013). Terrestrial biogeochemistry: TRIFFID vegetation dynamics prognostic soil and vegetation carbon with nitrogen limitation (Clark 2011, Wiltshire 2020) Ice sheets: BISICLES land ice sheets for Antarctica & Greenland (Cornforth 2013, Smith 2020).Model components are coupled together using the OASIS3-MCT coupler (Craig 2017) |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Scientific papers based on UKESM1 simulations form an important contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The IPCC provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well putting forward adaptation and mitigation options. UKESM1 enables analysis of potential future changes in both the physical climate system (such as rainfall, temperature and storms) while also allowing analysis of changes in the Earth's biogeochemical systems, such as marine biology, forests and atmospheric gases, all within a single interacting model. UKESM1 historical and future projections have been analysed to understand the impacts on, for example, storm surges and coastal flooding, fisheries, agriculture and wind potential over discrete regions, such as the Arctic, the North Atlantic-Europe (with ACSIS) and the Southern Ocean/Antarctica (with ORCHESTRA), as well with respect to key regional phenomena, such as global monsoons and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/portfolio-item/the-release-of-ukesm1-update/ |
Description | Collaboration with the Met Office |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Met Office and NERC funded Research Centres jointly develop the UK Earth System Model and collaborate on the evaluation of the model. |
Collaborator Contribution | Met Office and NERC funded Research Centres jointly develop the UK Earth System Model and collaborate on the evaluation of the model. |
Impact | The UK Earth System Model and developments towards UKESM2 |
Start Year | 2013 |
Description | COP27 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Fiona O'Connor from the Met Office presented some of the results using the UKESM model at COP27 in "Co-benefits and trade-offs of climate action, uncovering new incentives for early climate action" and colleagues from NCEO in TerraFIRMA had a poster presented at COP27 featuring their work on exceeding Global Warming levels. A Twitter thread was run alongside these events, https://twitter.com/TerraFIRMAclim8/status/1590276617066057728 (2198 impressions). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Climate Education Summer University, Toulouse |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | One-week long hands-on workshop based on active pedagogies that address a broad variety of topics around climate change and modelling, considering both its physical and human dimensions. Each edition of the Climate Education Summer University (CESU) welcomes around 30 teachers and teacher trainers from around Europe, which will later disseminate the new knowledge and set up school projects aimed at implementing climate change mitigation and/or adaptation actions in their own countries and communities. Participants of the CESU will also be invited to contribute to the development of a new set of educational resources focused on climate modelling and climate change. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.esm2025.eu/education-and-professional-development/climate-education-summer-universities/ |
Description | IAH India: Public lecture on Groundwater in the Indo-Gangetic Basin |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | An invited talk to the Indian Association of Hydrogeologists. THis was an online "popular talk" followed by 20 minutes of discussion. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://inciah.org/ |
Description | Met Office Science Profession Fair - UKESM stand |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Colleagues from the UKESM/TerraFIRMA team presented information about Earth System modelling including a quiz on climate change in the Met Office at an open event to promote different areas of science. This was helpful to make new connections with colleagues in the Met Office working in different areas and to promote what UKESM/TerraFIRMA aims to do. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | New Scientist Live Exhibition, London |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | UKESM/TerraFIRMA joined forces with the European Union funded ESM2025 project for a stand at the New Scientist Live Exhibition "the world's greatest festival of ideas and discoveries" on 7-9 October at the ExCeL Centre in London. Both projects work complementarily on Earth System modelling using the models to develop climate simulations to help design climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our exhibition stand "Predicting Climate Change" used the amazing 3D globe from the National Oceanography Centre to explore how the oceans, atmosphere and land are changing and could change in the future due to the impacts of climate change. The Office of Climate Education (OCE) from Paris brought along some fun and yet serious games on the carbon cycle & Earth System Models, especially aimed at children. Three tablets and a large screen were used for interactive quizzes - which proved to be really popular, especially when a competitive element was introduced by using the Kahoot platform. A team of 21 project researchers and climate science communicators were on-hand to speak to the public during the 3-day exhibition. It was a real team effort with people from across the projects representing organisations including: Meteo-France, Office of Climate Education, Met Office, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (Reading and Leeds), National Oceanography Centre, National Centre for Earth Observation, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and the University of Exeter. The 3-day event received 21,191 in-person attendees and another 2,195 international viewers online |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ukesm.ac.uk/portfolio-item/new-scientist-live-engaging-the-public/ |
Description | RMetS: Climate change curriculum audit - Media Studies GCSE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Climate change audit of GCSE media studies to identify areas for inclusion of climate change related issues into the curriculum. Part of the RMetS audit. I think the aim is for climate change issues to be diffused into lots of relevant subjects. At the moment the English curriculum contains very little about climate change and mainly only through Geography (which tends to be an optional subject) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | STEM Ambassador Video for GCSE Choices |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | Personal perspective on careers choice in Chemistry. 5 min video produced for distribution through STEM Ambassadors portal |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | UN Groundwater Summit 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | A Debate on Innovation in groundwater to acieve the sustainable developmetn Goals at the first ever UN groundwater summit in the UNESCO headquarters. Paris. More than 500 preople attended live with 1000 online. The UN-Water Summit on Groundwater 2022 brought attention to groundwater at the highest international level to define actions towards more responsible and sustainable use and protection of this vital natural resource. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://groundwater-summit.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Groundwater-Innovation-Background-Overview... |
Description | Work experience with A level students |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | 1 day focused on the communication of climate change. The 3 students focused on some activities, such as, new earth system game devised by project partners, ESM2025, a rehashed infographic for the IPCC AR6 and video storyboard explainers for climate change. The activities led to interesting discussions about how to present information and gave an insight into some climate science issues, in one case correcting a misunderstanding about sea ice. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | World Bank flagship on Groundwater |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Formal working groiup to evaluate World Bank flagship document on groundwater to be published in 2023. As part of an expert panel of 12, we reviewed the document and took part in a series of workshops. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |