Climate change and the tourism sector: impacts and adaptations at visitor attractions
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
Department Name: Management
Abstract
Tourism is a vital to UK economy, society and culture. Described by government in its Tourism Recovery Plan (June 2021) as a 'national asset', prior to the Coronavirus pandemic the tourism sector accounted for around 10% of GDP, employed around 10% of the workforce (3.3 million workers), and it was highlighted as a central pillar for post-Brexit economic development.
Although a key sector of the economy and a part of many citizens' lives, the opportunities and the risks to tourism from a changing climate in the UK have not been the subject of systematic or sustained research. As a form of human activity, that in the UK at least is highly sensitive to weather and atmospheric conditions, there has been very limited attention to the possible impacts of, and necessary adaptation to, future climate change to the tourism sector. This conspicuous gap in knowledge was also recently (June 2021) highlighted in the technical reports providing evidence for the third independent Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) which the Climate Change Commission (CCC) prepares for government every five years.
The aim of this timely and urgent project is to pick up this challenges by investigating the relationship between weather/climate and visitation to attractions under current and predicted future climatic conditions. The focus on visitors and visitation is novel. To date, within existing research the main approach has been to concentrate on the impacts of climate change on the locations that visitors inhabit (e.g. coastal areas, historic buildings) rather than how weather and climate relate to behaviour. As the first study of its type in the UK, it will employ the UK Climate Predictions published in 2018 (UKCP18) and the CCRA3 climate futures to predict possible changes. The main research questions are how may climate change affect visitor patterns and behaviours at attractions, and what are the likely consequences for the future visitor economy to 2050 and beyond?
More specifically, through work embedded in the team delivering the Climate Change Adaptation programme at the National Trust, it will:
1. Identify the main climate risks and opportunities associated with visits to attractions (i.e. properties) on the coast, in the countryside and at historic sites;
2. Examine the relationship between current weather/climate and visitation (numbers, spend, dwell time) at individual attractions (i.e. properties) as a baseline;
3. Investigate whether the relationship varies by different types of attraction, their contexts and attributes;
4. Using UKCP18 data, examine how visitation may change under different climate scenarios and assumptions;
5. Establish the nature, extent and spatial pattern of vulnerability and exposure at attractions, and what adaptation responses should be considered for the most exposed;
6. Understand the challenges presented for individual attractions in responding to changing visitor decision-making and possible impacts on visitor infrastructure.
The project will use secondary datasets compiled by the National Trust and Historic Environment Scotland on visitors to their attractions in combination with weather/climate data from the Met Office to examine objectives 1-5 through statistical analysis and modelling. Case-studies of individual properties identified in this analysis will investigate objective 6, with a view to identifying possible alterations in visitor infrastructure required as a result of climate change.
Attractions have a key role in motivating and shaping trips away while the emphasis on built and natural heritage reflects the popularity and financial value of heritage tourism in the UK. In 2015, domestic and international tourists made 192 million trips to the UK's cultural, historic and natural assets, with such visitors spending on average more than those in other segments and contributing over 1.1% to UK GDP (Oxford Economics 2016 p3)
Although a key sector of the economy and a part of many citizens' lives, the opportunities and the risks to tourism from a changing climate in the UK have not been the subject of systematic or sustained research. As a form of human activity, that in the UK at least is highly sensitive to weather and atmospheric conditions, there has been very limited attention to the possible impacts of, and necessary adaptation to, future climate change to the tourism sector. This conspicuous gap in knowledge was also recently (June 2021) highlighted in the technical reports providing evidence for the third independent Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) which the Climate Change Commission (CCC) prepares for government every five years.
The aim of this timely and urgent project is to pick up this challenges by investigating the relationship between weather/climate and visitation to attractions under current and predicted future climatic conditions. The focus on visitors and visitation is novel. To date, within existing research the main approach has been to concentrate on the impacts of climate change on the locations that visitors inhabit (e.g. coastal areas, historic buildings) rather than how weather and climate relate to behaviour. As the first study of its type in the UK, it will employ the UK Climate Predictions published in 2018 (UKCP18) and the CCRA3 climate futures to predict possible changes. The main research questions are how may climate change affect visitor patterns and behaviours at attractions, and what are the likely consequences for the future visitor economy to 2050 and beyond?
More specifically, through work embedded in the team delivering the Climate Change Adaptation programme at the National Trust, it will:
1. Identify the main climate risks and opportunities associated with visits to attractions (i.e. properties) on the coast, in the countryside and at historic sites;
2. Examine the relationship between current weather/climate and visitation (numbers, spend, dwell time) at individual attractions (i.e. properties) as a baseline;
3. Investigate whether the relationship varies by different types of attraction, their contexts and attributes;
4. Using UKCP18 data, examine how visitation may change under different climate scenarios and assumptions;
5. Establish the nature, extent and spatial pattern of vulnerability and exposure at attractions, and what adaptation responses should be considered for the most exposed;
6. Understand the challenges presented for individual attractions in responding to changing visitor decision-making and possible impacts on visitor infrastructure.
The project will use secondary datasets compiled by the National Trust and Historic Environment Scotland on visitors to their attractions in combination with weather/climate data from the Met Office to examine objectives 1-5 through statistical analysis and modelling. Case-studies of individual properties identified in this analysis will investigate objective 6, with a view to identifying possible alterations in visitor infrastructure required as a result of climate change.
Attractions have a key role in motivating and shaping trips away while the emphasis on built and natural heritage reflects the popularity and financial value of heritage tourism in the UK. In 2015, domestic and international tourists made 192 million trips to the UK's cultural, historic and natural assets, with such visitors spending on average more than those in other segments and contributing over 1.1% to UK GDP (Oxford Economics 2016 p3)
Publications
Golding N
(2024)
Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
Lonsdale K
(2024)
Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK
| Description | Very little is known about how weather impacts on visitation and spend in the heritage sector as a major part of the UK visitor economy. This research examined the relationship historically before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017/18-2019/20), and into the future (2020 to 2080) for 65 and 14 properties operated by the National Trust (NT) and Historic Environment Scotland (HES), respectively. The former provided a basis for estimating possible future outcomes associated with RCP8.5 in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) 2018. Weather was perceived by key stakeholders as strongly related to visitor business for both the NT and HES. Subtle differences observed at property level qualify this observation and demand more localised considerations. In the historical evidence, more comfortable weather days were associated with higher visitor numbers and spend. Modelling from UKCP18 data for the 79 properties suggests improvement over time in the weather conditions for visitation. For Ensemble Member 9 of RCP8.5 (i.e. the higher estimate of future temperature), the average HCI score (a measure of visitor comfort) for each property increases by 7.6% for NT and 9.1% for HES properties (to 67.8 and 63.6 respectively) in years during the 2070s compared to the baseline period (i.e. 2017/18-2019/20). If the same visitation and spend patterns occur in the future as in the past, for the 'average NT property' visitor numbers and sales may increase between 9.4 and 14.0% and 10.1 and 14.5% respectively from the baseline years to those in the 2070s. Estimated increases for the 'average HES property' in visitor numbers and sales range from 17.9% to 23.6% and 13.6 to 19.2%. Individual property-level estimates demonstrate variability, with possible increases of 6.4-11.5% for visitors and 8.4-13.2% for sales in the NT sample. Among the HES sample, values were higher, ranging from 23.1 to 34.2% for visitors and 16.5 to 26.9% sales. Improvements in visitation and revenue over time are greater in Scotland, Wales and the North of England compared to the South West, London and the South East of England. The complexity of the relationship between weather and local property-based offers makes it difficult to recommend general areas, localities or regions as foci for future intervention. Properties with stronger correlations between weather and visitation, as well as potentially greater improvements in future weather conditions may require prioritisation. The results should not be misinterpreted. Climate change is a continuous and unfolding process, and they point to significant challenges ahead in managing heritage properties sustainably. Not only does a changing climate threaten natural and cultural heritage assets that are managed on behalf of the public. It also has the potential to impact, inter alia, on the carrying capacity of properties; the quality of the visitor experience; the management of people, sites and visits safely and responsibly; and the costs of doing business. The extreme temperatures and heat waves of 2022 and 2023, although more severe than the conditions encountered between 2017 and 2019, offer an insight into conditions that climate modelling infers will be more common in the future. |
| Exploitation Route | Three areas for future actions are recommended: • Weather and climate are already issues in the consciousness of the NT, HES and other heritage providers. However, this research revealed that the ways in which they impact on heritage properties as visitor attractions is complex and nuanced. The facilitation of greater knowledge transfer would encourage more effective sectoral-, organisational- and local-level responses. • Dedicated property-level analyses would be beneficial for climate-informed future management at both the local and the organisational levels. Evidence-based analysis of this type is resource-intensive and the opportunities to develop climate services in this space have yet to be recognised. • Far less is known about how weather is related to operating costs in heritage properties as visitor businesses. At present, a 'known-unknown' is the extent to which any future growth may be offset by the costs resulting from a changing climate. |
| Sectors | Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Leisure Activities including Sports Recreation and Tourism Culture Heritage Museums and Collections |
| URL | http://hdl.handle.net/10871/134487 |