Hydro-JULES-Next

Lead Research Organisation: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks

Abstract

As recent floods in Australia and Pakistan and prolonged severe drought in the UK, USA, and East Africa show, the water cycle is a key driver of environmental change in the 21st century. The UK's commitment to Net Zero by 2050 and the COP26-inspired Glasgow Breakthrough Goals challenge scientists to quantify the risks and impacts of anthropogenic warming and environmental change on hydrological extremes, and to provide more precise estimates of hydro-meteorological hazards and the availability of water resources worldwide. The Climate Change Committee's Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk has stressed the importance of accurate assessments of current and future flood risk, and stimulated innovation to provide better predictions of floods across all time-scales.

The Hydro-JULES-Next project will provide underpinning science to address these challenges. This project will undertake a comprehensive programme of work aimed at building new modelling infrastructure to understanding floods and water scarcity in the UK and overseas. We will develop innovative approaches to assimilating data into the latest coupled hydrological and atmosphere models, to develop a new understanding of hydrological extremes. We will conduct state-of-the-art analyses of the effects of climate and land cover change on the water cycle in the UK and beyond and we will make our results, and the technology used to produce them, freely available to beneficiaries in universities, public sector research organisations, and the private sector so that they can develop advanced solutions tailored to their own needs.

Working closely with our research and implementation partners in the Environment Agency, Met Office, and Flood Forecasting Centre, among others, we will develop model capability that can deliver solutions to provide next-generation seamless environmental prediction, improve water resources planning and flood guidance statements, and help understand the response of hydrological systems to land cover change associated with the pursuit of net zero carbon emissions.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Membership of WMO Impact-based Forecasting for Hydrology group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact This activity is developing World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Guidelines for Impact-based forecasting in Hydrology (IbFH) that would be used for implementing and validating impact-based forecast warnings. WMO publications and guidelines are used by national hydro-meteorological services across the world. These form part of WMO Standing Committee in Hydrology Activity 10 (Support WMO Standing Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction in the provision of assistance to Members in enhancing their service delivery capabilities and enabling effective implementation of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS)), and contributing to the milestones of the WMO Plan of Action for Hydrology 2022-2030 (hydroref.com), in particular Activity B.8.2 and C.5.
 
Description CDT for Resilient Flood Fututres (FLOOD-CDT)
Amount £6,500,000 (GBP)
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2024 
End 08/2031
 
Description STORMS: Strategies and Tools for Resilience of Buried Infrastructure to Meteorological Shocks
Amount £60,000 (GBP)
Funding ID Additions to existing grants. 
Organisation Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2024 
End 03/2024
 
Description STORMS: Strategies and Tools for Resilience of Buried Infrastructure to Meteorological Shocks
Amount £361,452 (GBP)
Funding ID ST/Y004035/1 
Organisation Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2023 
End 03/2025
 
Description STORMS: Strategies and Tools for Resilience of Buried Infrastructure to Meteorological Shocks
Amount £361,453 (GBP)
Funding ID ST/Y004000/1 
Organisation Science and Technologies Facilities Council (STFC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2023 
End 03/2025
 
Description Uncertainty Quantification for Flood Modelling (UQ4FM)
Amount £1,233,775 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/Y000145/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2024 
End 02/2027
 
Description WP2.4_Climate change impacts on the Adige River, Italy 
Organisation University of Trento
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Advice on analyses. Draft paper review.
Collaborator Contribution Advice on analyses. Draft paper review.
Impact Poster at EGU 2024.
Start Year 2023
 
Title GitHub repository for training on using JASMIN Object Store 
Description The GitHub repository offers sample notebooks and guides for utilizing the JASMIN Object Store. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2023 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact This GitHub repository is freely available to use, and is platform agnostic and can be downloaded and used through any platform for e.g., Google Colab Notebooks. Anyone can use this repository to train offline or via self-learning. 
URL https://github.com/NERC-CEH/object_store_tutorial/
 
Title Historic Climate Analogues Forecasts 
Description New operational forecasting system implemented in the UK Hydrological Outlook 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2023 
Impact Improved streamflow forecasts over winter in particular 
URL https://ukho.ceh.ac.uk/
 
Title Hydro-PE 
Description Python package and tools for calculating potential evapotranspiration 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2023 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact This software allows the research community to implement our updated potential evapotranspiration methodology, which enables calculation of PE that is consistent with MORECS and allows seamless hydrological modelling with historical and future climate data sets 
 
Description AllWP_Flood Hydrology Roadmap STAG 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Stakeholder and communication workshop (2). Discussed key messages for the Roadmap to key stakeholder groups and the alignment of key initiatives (broadly) under the Roadmap - UKCEH NC programmes listed in here, including HJ2.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description AllWP_HJ breakout session at annual JULES science meeting. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact HJ breakout session at annual JULES science meeting. HJ developments outlined to small group; REP and webinar advertised to the whole meeting.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description AllWP_Regular bi-lateral meeting between MO and UKCEH. Meeting with Stephen Belcher 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Collaborative work on H-J2 and improved pull-through of science into operational version of JULES.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description AllWP_Visiting scientist Christoph Rudiger 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Visit to UKCEH as part of larger European visit. Several discussions with UKCEH staff.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Chris Rudiger visit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Collaborative visit by BoM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description FZ Juelich Land Modelling Workshop, Cologne 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Land modelling workshop with German Supercomputing Centre
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description NERC Executive visit, Peter Liss and Alison Robinson 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Roundtable with visiting NERC executive
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Roundtable with Daniel Zeichner MP 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Briefing to visiting MP on research undertaken and its relevance to parliamentary debates
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description Roundtable with US Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact KE roundtable with US counterpart institute
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP1.1_Dialogue with Met Office around JULES developments 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Various meetings and discussions with Met Office staff to discuss and plan development of JULES, particularly in the context of Regional Environmental Prediction modelling.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP1.3_Engagement with CEDA JASMIN to participate in JASMIN user seminar series and site visit. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Various talks give by UKCEH research scientist demonstrating the use of JASMIN high performance computing system in their research. In depth discussions with CEDA JASMIN experts to build strong connections between two institutes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWd49mqX-qQ
 
Description WP1.3_Poster at NERC Digital Gathering: How chunky would you like your data? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Poster presentation at NERC Digital Gathering in Cambridge at BAS, Summer 2023.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP1.3_Talk at AGU Fall Meeting at San Francisco, USA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk titled "Navigating the challenges of Object Store: Experiments in efficient handling of large datasets" given by Amulya Chevuturi
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1381154
 
Description WP1.3_Talk at JASMIN User Conference at Didcot, UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk titled "JASMIN Object Storage: Optimising Performance for Climate Research" given by Matt Brown and Amulya Chevuturi.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ8qEXQAri0
 
Description WP2.2_Engagement with Met Office Radar Development Team 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The NCAS X-band radar team are regularly engaging with Tim Darlington, Team Leader Radar Research and Development about NCAS X-band research and Met Office plans. This is to share knowledge and facilitate future exchange of radar algorithms and closer working between academia and the Met Office.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description WP2.2_Introduction to Atmospheric Radar - Training Course 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The Introduction to Atmospheric Radar course is primarily targeted at PhD students and early career researchers who have limited experience in this field. The course will cover radar fundamentals, dual-polarisation weather radars, cloud radars, and wind profiling radars. The aim of this course is to provide the basic knowledge and skills required for researchers to use radar-derived atmospheric products within their work. Examples and material from Hydro-JULES research will be used in the course.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://ncas.ac.uk/study-with-us/introduction-to-atmospheric-radar/
 
Description WP2.3_ Presentation at EA evapotranspiration workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Workshop on evapotranspiration with a focus on trees, aimed modellers of recharge, ground water and riverflow. EA have written a report summarising the workshop, and have come up with some short- and long-term plans to improve groundwater recharge modelling including interception, which will enable better modelling of afforestation and other NbS effects on water resources in the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP3.1_ K-Scale UK Science Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Attended workshop and Simon gave a lightning talk. Discussions about potential future work with high-resolution models, and HJ in general.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP3.1_Discussion with BoM Australia about JULES 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion of possible collaboration to look at use of JULES to represent ponding following rainfall.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP3.2_EGU Engagement/Catch-ups 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Discussed HJ land and inundation DA plans.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP3.2_JEDI land Da conversation with relevant people at Met Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Meeting with Sarah Dance, Elizabeth Cooper, Cristina Charlton-Perez and Samantha Pullen to discuss common goals of land surface DA and possible adoption (for us) of the JEDO framework.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP3.2_Zoom meeting with ECMWF 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Catch up zoom meeting to share plans for land DA.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP5.2_Oral and Poster presentations at HEPEX workshop "Forecasting across spatial scales and time horizons" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented Poster presentation "making better forecasts" that detailed technical advances in forecasting as a result of HydroJULES research. Presented oral presentation "delivering better forecasts" that detailed the applications of HydroJULES technical developments in operational services.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://hepex.org.au/hepex-workshop-2023-forecasting-across-spatial-scales-and-time-horizons/
 
Description WP5.3_ Advances in Flood Modelling and Forecasting Conference, 1-2 February 2024 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact UKCEH staff invited to attend this specialist workshop on 2-d hydrodynamic simulators. Organised under the EPSRC SEAMLESS-WAVE "SoftwarE infrAstructure for Multi-purpose fLood modElling at variouS scaleS" based on "WAVElets" fellowship. Discussions on links between hydrology and hydraulics, optimum utilisation of GPUs/compute power and uncertainty. Many links to Hydro-JULES and related projects discussed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.seamlesswave.com/2024_Feb_Event.html
 
Description WP5.3_ Surface water flood forecasting and real-time communication symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Symposium to bring together the surface water flood forecasting community to identify priorities and new opportunities. Dr Steven Cole (UKCEH) invited as a expert in this area.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/surface-water-flood-forecasting-and-real-time-communication-symposium...
 
Description WP5.3_Keynote talk by Steven Cole at 7th Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The UK are one of the leaders in developing Impact-based Forecasting (IbF). UKCEH, as part of the UK Natural Hazards Partnership, have had a key role in creating new IbF services in the UK and elsewhere. Norway are embarking on a similar journey and have a major project, FlomRisk, led by NVE, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. Dr Steven Cole (UKCEH) was invited to give a keynote presentation on "Probabilistic impact-based approaches for flood forecasting and prediction" to the 7th Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes, "Modelling, forecasting, communicating, and handling weather-induced natural hazards" in Lillehammer, 19 - 21 September 2023. This was a timely exchange between hydrologists, meteorologists, service providers, academics, local government and consultants as Norway had suffered major flooding and landslides during the summer storm "Hans". It is expected that the exchange between UK and Norway will continue as the FlomRisk project, and other initiatives, continue.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.hydrologiraadet.no/7th-conference-on-modelling-hydrology-climate-and-land-surface-proces...
 
Description WP5_ Flood Nonstationarity and Prediction Academic and practitioner perspectives on recent developments and unresolved challenges 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Flood Nonstationarity and Prediction worskhop at University of Oxford, 20 July 2023 "Academic and practitioner perspectives on recent developments and unresolved challenges". Brought together a wide range of academics and practitioners and fostered discussion between user needs and art of the possible. Hydro-JULES was promoted and many discussions and opportunities for linking across research initiiative and stakeholders. The Hydro JULES PI and several of the team attended. Adam Griffin gave a presentation on "Climate Change Allowances and all the ways to interpret them" covering plans under HJ.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP5_Flood Hydrology Roadmap - Model Benchmarking workshop - UK academic researchers involved in the development of flood hydrology 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The workshop was part of the Environment Agency's Flood Hydrology Improvements Programme and is being undertaken in collaboration with the UK's devolved nations to develop a project that intends to deliver a benchmarking service to aid us in the selection of best practicable flood hydrology methods / models for operational practice in the UK. This was a first workshop at the start of a 3 year programme with more engagement expected and overlap with Hydro-JULES aims. Many of the HydroJULES team attended an contributed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://engageenvironmentagency.uk.engagementhq.com/m4-benchmarking
 
Description WP6 _ Meeting with the Environment Agency 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussing HJ and NC with the intention of working with them in the future.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP6.5_ Hosted Wouter Knoben on a research visit, including organisation of a Hydro-JULES seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Hosted Wouter Knoben from the University of Calgary for a week at UKCEH Wallingford. This included organisation of a Hydro-JULES seminar where Wouter presented his research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description WP6.5_Benchmarking and intercomparison workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We invited members of the hydrological community to attend a workshop about benchmarking and intercomparison of hydrological models. This involved a series of invited talks, lightning talks, and discussion sessions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description WP6_ Engagement with EA re. HJ and FHRM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Visit to the HJ Project Team meeting from Anita Asadullah and Sally Brown - EA to explain progress to FHRM and how HJ may relate/collaborate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description WP6_Engagement with EA re FHRP 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Visit to the HJ Project Team meeting from Anita Asadullah- EA to explain progress to FHRM and how HJ may relate/collaborate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description WP6_Engagement with Met Office re. CSRA4 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Visit to the HJ Project Team meeting from Richard Betts- MO to explain the process for the production of CSRA 4 and how HJ may relate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP6_Frontiers in Land surface & Hydrological prediction 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Hydro-JULES webinar live broadcast
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023,2024
URL https://hydro-jules.org/
 
Description WP6_HJ Education, Exploring collaboration and co-design with the university sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion to talk about co-developing matrial to be used in and by HEI. Smaller trial group first to get feeling of what would be helpful and guage what thye would like from HJ.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP6_Internship Programme 2023 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact 2 students attended UKCEH site for 6 weeks to work on HJ related topics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
 
Description WP6_LTSM2 meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact PIs and other representatives from all the LTSM2 projects met to introduce their projects and identify potential areas for collaboration.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023