A testable high-resolution spatial ecosystem model for inshore waters
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Strathclyde
Department Name: Statistics and Modelling Science
Abstract
The aim of the project is to develop a high-spatial resolution ecosystem model of an inshore area of the west of Scotland focussing on secondary producers and their predators. We shall use a box-model approach to represent nutrients and primary production adapted from previous work, allied to a demographic representation of secondary producers and their principal predators adapted from a fish-focussed non-spatial ecosystem model currently under development (FRS funded) at the University of Strathclyde. The model will cover the region surveyed in the FRS 1991 Loch Linnhe programme (see diagram below) plus connecting waters; the Firth of Lorne from Luing northwards, the Sound of Mull and the whole of Loch Linnhe up to the narrows at the mouth of Loch Eil. The physical context of the ecosystem model will be set by the hydrodynamics of the system. These will be simulated using the POLCOMS model configured for the region of interest at a resolution of about 100m. Key drivers of the model will be freshwater inputs and winds. Although good fresh water run-in data are available for this area for both the 1991 hindcast period (Heath 1995) and for the present day, only rather generalized wind data exist. Since western Scottish inshore waters are located in mountainous terrain, wind circulation (and hence wind driven surface currents) show strong local heterogeneity, and it will be necessary to develop a local wind model, which can predict surface wind forcing in relation to local terrain. This model will be developed and validated against present-day behaviour observed as part of field data collection during this programme. The resulting validated wind model will then be used to drive POLCOMS under present day conditions, so that the flow predictions can be validated against observations. The combined models will be used to hindcast flow fields during the 1991 survey as drivers for the biological model. A key aspect of the biological modelling will be testing against the 1991 survey data. To this end the model will be designed to facilitate Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Such estimation not only locates a `best-fit' parameter combination, but also evaluates parameter uncertainty and correlation; an invaluable tool during model development. For this purpose we shall develop models at a variety of spatial resolutions, running from a high resolution model at 100m scale, which will be primarily used in prognostic mode, down to a low resolution model at approximately 1km resolution, which will be used mainly for extended parameter exploration. We expect that the parameter estimation models will use a well established vertical scheme which divides the water column into surface (above the pycnocline), intermediate (tidally flushed) and deep (i.e. flushed only at turnover events) layers. However, to investigate sub-tidal cycle events we shall also construct a high resolution model with full water column representation.
Publications
Sabatino A
(2016)
Modelling sea level surges in the Firth of Clyde, a fjordic embayment in south-west Scotland
in Natural Hazards
Cai Yongmei
(2019)
Stochastic modelling of nutrient and predator-prey populations
Description | The project is being run in two parts. The first part at the Scottish Association for Marine Science has been developing a POLCOMS hydrodynamic model of Loch Linnhe for the full year 1991. An intensive field programme was mounted in Loch Linnhe during that year and the model outputs are being compared with hydrographic and current measurements data from the field sampling. The model captures the key features of the circulation of the Loch. The second part o fthe project is being run at the University of Strathclyde. Here, nutrient and plankton data are being used to develop a nitrogen mass balance model of the Loch, and identify the key plankton species which exploit the Loch hydrodynamics to enable their persistence in the system. Finally, a population dynamics model is being developed which integrates biology with the POLCOMSmodel outputs to test hypotheses about the behaviour of the plankton which enables their persistence |
Exploitation Route | The flow fields produced by the POLCOMS model are being used by Marine Scotland Science to sumulate the dispersal of sea lice from salmon farms in Loch Linnhe The flow fields produced by teh POLCOMS model have a variety of applications for government regulatory activity in relation to fish farming, and also for further academic research into the dynamics of coastal ecosystems. |
Sectors | Environment |
URL | https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/files/38711232/llllmeetingpresentation.pdf |
Description | The findings of the project are being used as part of a Scotland-wide unitiative organised by MASTS to focus on and understand the dynamics and economic potentials of a number of key inshore ecosystems. Loch Linnhe is one of these key regions. The PI and PDRA on the projecvt both gave invited presentations as a workshop organised under this initiative. The effort is ongoing and will continue beyond the funded period of the project |
First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Cultural Policy & public services |
Description | Funding for zooplankton analysis |
Amount | £6,384 (GBP) |
Organisation | Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2012 |
End | 03/2013 |
Description | Funding for zooplankton analysis |
Amount | £6,384 (GBP) |
Organisation | Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland |
Sector | Academic/University |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2012 |
End | 06/2013 |
Title | Circulation model of Loch Linnhe |
Description | Implementation of POLCOMS to simulate the hydrography and circulation of Loch Linnhe |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Data were provided to Marine Scotland as input to their assessment of the connectivity between fish farm sites in Loch Linnhe |
Title | Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and outputs for the Firth of Clyde |
Description | Code for setting up an running a high resolution hydrodynamic model for the Firth of Clyde and a full set of model outputs |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2016 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Model output being used for particle tracking of Nephrops larvae dispersal. Code and outputs provided to Scottish Environmental protection Agency and Marine Scotland |
URL | https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/en/datasets/finite-volume-community-ocean-model-fvcom-and-outputs-f... |
Title | Zooplankton analysis of samples from Loch Linnhe |
Description | Zooplankton samples collected by Marine Scotland Science using the ARIES system in Loch Linnhe during 1991 were analysed at Plymouth Marine Laboratory |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Summer internship student project report |
Description | Joint research with Fisheries Research Service (FRS) |
Organisation | Fisheries Research Services (FRS) Marine Laboratory |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
PI Contribution | University of Strathclyde researchers worked on this project with researchers from Fisheries Research Service (FRS) |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Joint research with Scottish Association for Marine Science |
Organisation | Scottish Association For Marine Science |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | University of Strathclyde researchers worked on this project with researchers from Scottish Association for Marine Science |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Participant in the following conference: MASTS Annual Science Meeting 2013 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Presentation of paper titled "Yi Ming Lai & Mike Heath Nutrient Budget for Loch Linnhe, a Scottish Sea-Loch" Not recorded |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | Participation in workshop / seminar / course at the following conference: Loch Linnhe and the Lynn of Lorn: A Case Study for the MASTS Dynamics and Properties of Marine Systems Theme |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | Presentation of paper titled "Yi Ming lai & Mike Heath : Nutrient Budget for Loch Linnhe, a Scottish Sea-Loch" Not recorded |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2014 |