Exploitation of HiGEM as a tool for understanding decadal climate variability and for predicting the climate of the next few decades.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Reading
Department Name: Meteorology
Abstract
The fact that Earth's climate is changing is now widely accepted; the consequences of this fact are only just beginning to be understood. The changing climate will have a very wide range of impacts - for example, on water resources, on agriculture, on ecosystems and economies. If planners are to minimise the costs of these impacts they require detailed information about how climate will change regionally and locally, especially over the next few decades. Providing this information is a major challenge to scientists. This proposal will address this challenge by making use of a new UK climate model, HiGEM, which provides unprecedented spatial detail. It will investigate how the changes in climate projected by the HiGEM model differ from those suggested by simpler models that provide less detail. It will also examine how observations of recent changes can be used in conjunction with climate models to obtain the best possible predictions.
Organisations
- University of Reading (Lead Research Organisation)
- Meteorological Office UK (Collaboration)
- NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE (Collaboration)
- PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY (Collaboration)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (Collaboration)
- British Antarctic Survey (Collaboration)
- Met Office (Project Partner)
Publications
Yeager SG
(2017)
Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability.
in Current climate change reports
Robson J
(2017)
Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model
in Climate Dynamics
Shaffrey L
(2016)
Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation
in Climate Dynamics
Hodson D
(2012)
The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model
in Climate Dynamics
Hodson D
(2009)
Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: a multimodel comparison
in Climate Dynamics
Hodson D
(2008)
Exploring multi-model atmospheric GCM ensembles with ANOVA
in Climate Dynamics
Description | This project demonstrated that accurate simulation and prediction of Atlantic ocean circulation and its impacts on climate required significant increases in the spatial resolution (i.e. spatial detail) of the computer models employed. Including these improvements results in better agreement with observations of the real world and better predictions. |
Exploitation Route | The results help to target the development of systems for predicting weather and climate from a season to several years ahead. Reliable forecasts for these lead times would be of great value for decision making in many sectors. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Construction Energy Environment Financial Services and Management Consultancy Leisure Activities including Sports Recreation and Tourism Government Democracy and Justice Retail Transport |
Description | Informed by results from this project and others the Met Office upgraded significantly the resolution of their seasonal forecasting system, which has resulted in significant increases in skill for European winters in particular. These forecasts have been valuable for energy sector businesses and others. |
First Year Of Impact | 2012 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Economic Policy & public services |
Description | NERC National Capability Long Term Science - MultiCentre Programme: North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) |
Amount | £9,000,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/N018001/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | NERC RAPID-AMOC program - DYNAMOC project |
Amount | £418,694 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/M005127/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 12/2014 |
End | 12/2017 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | British Antarctic Survey |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | National Centre for Earth Observation |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | National Oceanography Centre |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) |
Organisation | Plymouth Marine Laboratory |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS programme) is a 5 year research programme led by NCAS (PI Rowan Sutton) and also involving: NOC, BAS, NCEO, PML, CPOM and the Met Office. |
Collaborator Contribution | Details at www.acsis.ac.uk and https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Impact | https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0266.1 |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Partnership with the Met Office Hadley Centre |
Organisation | Meteorological Office UK |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Strategic partnership in high resolution climate modelling, decadal climate prediction and other areas |
Collaborator Contribution | Strategic partnership in high resolution climate modelling, decadal climate prediction and other areas |
Impact | Publications. Improvements to Met Office decadal prediction system. Collaboration with the insurance businesses on climate risk assessment. |