Statistics, environmental management, policy and regulation: developing the evidence base
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Glasgow
Department Name: Statistics
Abstract
Describing changes in the natural environment is essential, but in addition the challenge facing regulators and policy makers lies in understanding the links between policy, EU directives and regulation and the actual environmental effects . In 2001, the European Environment Agency reported on 'how much or how little we know about the links between environmental policy measures and their actual impact in the environment' and observed that 'much of the information gathered is of limited use in assessing the impact of environmental measures' (Nigel Haigh, foreword of Environmental Issues, Report 25/EC). Quantifying change, whether as a result of policy and regulation or through climate related change is 'complex and requires multi-disciplinary efforts, including assessment of changes in environmental quality that have been observed'. Some of the most high-profile environmental science issues of today are framed around the analysis of long (and short) observational records, measured over a network of locations and recognising patterns requires statistical modelling, to account for variation in the natural system, incomplete observations and uncertainty. Additionally, policy makers and regulators are being asked to consider planning and regulation under the scenario of climate change (eg frequency of flood events, effect on water quality) thus risk assessment becomes a key driver of regulation, with resources directed according to the risks involved and the scale of outcomes to be achieved. Environment agencies and other NGO's regularly publish 'State of the environment reports' which by their nature allow investigation of change in the environment over time. Scientific and public debates on these issues need to be informed by presentation of existing data along with suitable interpretations drawn from statistical modelling explicitly accounting for variation and uncertainty. Many factors, including climate change, interact to produce a complex environmental signal making the effect of the policy and the magnitude of trend difficult to disentangle. The proposal brings together environmental regulators, managers, civil servants and scientists to develop the skills necessary to ensure that our environment receives the best possible management for future generations.
Publications
Scott E M
(2011)
A statistical framework for an evidence base to support environmental regulation and policy
in IWSM proceedings
Marian Scott E
(2014)
Defining a fit for purpose statistically reliable sustainability indicator
in Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal
Eze J
(2011)
Modelling Alkalinity in ecosystems
in IWSM proceedings
Eze JI
(2014)
The association of weather and bathing water quality on the incidence of gastrointestinal illness in the west of Scotland.
in Epidemiology and infection
Description | as a result of this work, and through new funded opportunities, we are now developing decision support tools to assist in environmental management |
Exploitation Route | we are developing new visualisation tools to help explore environmental; data |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | some software developed subsequently is now being used within the environment agency (namely a statistical emulator), and further we have provided software and visualisation apps to explore air quality indicators |
First Year Of Impact | 2016 |
Sector | Environment |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | advice on air quality modelling |
Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
Impact | our advice is being used in the creation of environmental indicators and the creation of low emission zones |
Description | Training funds |
Amount | £16,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Scottish Environment Protection Agency |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2013 |
End | 03/2015 |
Description | training funds |
Amount | £10,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Scottish Environment Protection Agency |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | RECOVER |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Department | Department of Mathematics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | RECOVER is an EPSRC funded network and I have been invited to join the advisory board |
Collaborator Contribution | none |
Impact | we have supported a workshop to be held in February 2016. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Parliamentary conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I attended and presented at Brexit: an academic conference and was able to showcase the work being done in WEFWEBs and other projects to parliamentarians, as a result there will be an outreach event held in Glasgow in March 2017. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |